MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/11/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
The only game with rain concerns is HOU/MIN which could start on time but there’s a good chance of a delay later in the evening making both pitchers very risky and the wind will be blowing in ~11mph so overall not great conditions for hitting either.
NYM/WSH & OAK/DET will have slight breezes blowing in while TBR/LAA is looking at 15-18mph winds blowing out to right with BOS/ATL and BAL/STL (very hot temps!) not seeing significant wind (KC/TEX is in a dome).
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TBR/LAA are +12.3% while total runs for HOU/MIN are -8.8%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Byron Buxton could return any day now from his hip injury but he’s a fade for me if active with poor hitting conditions in that game, the risk of re-injury, and his price on both sites especially on DK where he’s unplayable for me at $6,200. Max Stassi and Mitch Garver landed on the IL yesterday so one of their backups will be in for them today and for now Manuel Margot is considered unlikely to play but all of the Rays are going to be hard to use in any capacity against Ohtani.
I’m going back to the Cardinals as my favorite stack at home against the righty Watkins in 80+ degree heat as Watkins hasn’t struck out more than three hitters in any of his five starts this season and the prices of Juan Yepez and Dylan Carlson on both sites make it pretty easy to fit in Paul Goldschmidt and/or Nolan Arenado. The Mets are my next favorite stack against Aaron Sanchez who has allowed 13 ER in his three starts this season with just nine total strikeouts in those three starts. Other stacks to to consider include TEX, BOS, OAK, and HOU if weather in that game clears up.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Dylan Carlson ($2,400), Juan Yepez ($2,800), Brandon Nimmo ($2,900), and Dominic Smith ($2,100) for value pieces of my two favorite stacks with Francisco Lindor at $3,500 being my next favorite guy to lock in. Corey Seager is also way too cheap at just $3,000 coming off a two HR game and Marcus Semien is on a little cold streak over his last three games but has a great price at $2,800 for some more cheap Rangers exposure. Other cheap FD bats I’m considering today include Ramon Laureano ($2,600), Javier Baez ($3,000), Jeimer Candelario ($2,400), Michael Brantley ($2,700), Max Kepler ($2,900), Jose Miranda ($2,200), and Bobby Witt ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings Juan Yepez is the clear top value play for me at just $3,000 hitting cleanup while Dylan Carlson is hitting 5th today and at just $3,200 he will be on my main build too and the Mets are priced up a bit compared to FD but I still really like Francisco Lindor ($5,100) and Pete Alonso ($4,900). Corey Seager has big upside but is way more expensive than FD at $5,200 while Andy Ibanez is hitting 2nd for TEX today and is a fine play at $2,800 along with Nick Solak hitting 5th at $2,600. If you need another super cheap guy I’m liking Chad Pinder for just $2,500 against the lefty Wentz and Ramon Laureano is a very reasonable $4,000 if you want a mini OAK stack with Pinder. Other cheap DK guys to consider are Christian Bethancourt ($2,100), Dansby Swanson ($3,500), Dominic Smith ($3,500), Enrique Hernandez ($3,400), Max Kepler ($3,600), Jose Miranda ($2,600), and Kole Calhoun ($2,500).
Shohei Ohtani is my clear SP1 on both sites and on DK he is way underpriced at just $8,800. His opponent Shane McClanahan has a tougher matchup but makes for a very strong GPP play with so much ownership likely going to Ohtani. Tylor Megill is my next favorite option for cash games and my SP2 on DK and Miles Mikolas is a solid option but his price makes him more of a GPP play for me while Zach Logue is a decent cheap option who could payoff his $7k price and help fit in some higher-priced bats for you.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn