MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/16/2022
We’re starting off the new week with a big 11-game slate and with warm weather around the country and Coors field in play along with a lack of elite pitchers going today, so we should see some very high scoring games.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
STL/NYM has been PPD! NYY/BAL has some rain concerns but should play on time or after a short delay. HOU/BOS could see a bit of rain mid-game but it doesn’t look like enough to cause any issues.
A bunch of games are looking at 9-12mph winds blowing out including NYY/BAL, STL/NYM, HOU/BOS, PIT/CHC, SFG/COL, and MIN/OAK while ARI/LAD & CHW/KCR will see very minor wind out to center and LAA/TEX, ATL/MIL, and SEA/TOR are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for STL/NYM are +42.1% while total runs for HOU/BOS are +12.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
There is a chance Ronald Acuna returns today but if he doesn’t look for Travis Demeritte to continue to hit leadoff and be a decent value play and also in that game Willy Adames sprained his ankle yesterday and could be out today. Austin Hays is still dealing with his hand laceration and for now is projected out and with Ryan Mountcastle on the IL we should continue to see Tyler Nevin draw starts and possibly Ryan McKenna for Hays. Keep an eye out on the status of Tommy La Stella for the Giants as he could come off the IL and is extremely cheap on DK at just $2,300 if he cracks the lineup and Kyle Garlick has been activated off the IL for the Twins and will likely start right away against the lefty Logue for min price on both sites.
The Giants are the clear top stack today in Coors against Senzatela with a team total around 6.3 and the sites did not price them high enough at all. Brandon Belt is my top overall play today as he’s 10 for 23 in his career against Senzatela and for $4.5K on DK and $3.8k on FD he should be one of the highest owned players today. LaMonte Wade, Joc Pederson, and Mike Yastrzemski are my favorite guys to stack with Belt and all are just way too cheap for this spot. The Rockies have a tougher matchup against Alex Wood but still have a team total above 5.2 currently and if Yonathan Daza hits in the top half of the order today I really like his $2.7k price on both sites. The Dodgers are my next favorite stack at home against Bumgarner with Betts, both of the Turners, and Smith all with the platoon advantage and affordable prices. Jon Gray has been pretty bad in his four starts this season with four strikeouts or less in each so the Angels have to be considered a top stack as well and could be a bit contrarian today with a lot of ownership going to the Giants. Other stacks to consider include the White Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red Sox.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Brandon Belt ($3,800), LaMonte Wade ($2,900), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,200), and Joc Pederson ($3,400) in cash games as they’re in too good of a spot today for those prices in Coors. My favorite spend-up bats are Rafael Devers ($3,900) and Trea Turner ($3,700) both swinging hot bats and easy to fit in with the Giants stack and if you have the salary I’d try to get in one of Mike Trout ($4,500) or Shohei Ohtani ($4,400) too. Other cheap bats I like on FD include Joey Gallo ($2,600), Teoscar Hernandez ($2,900), Yan Gomes ($2,000), Anthony Rendon ($3,000), Yoan Moncada ($3,000), and Yasmani Grandal ($2,300).
Looking at DraftKings I’m again starting with the four top lefty Giants in Belt, Wade, Yastrzemski, and Pederson and if Yonathan Daza ($2,700) is hitting high in the order I might consider him over one of the Giants OF’s. If Yan Gomes makes the lineup he is an excellent value play at C for just $2,500 with the platoon advantage against Peters and I like the price of Brendan Rodgers ($4,000) at 2B to get some Rockies exposure. Other cheap DK bats I’m considering are Joey Gallo ($3,200), Julio Rodriguez ($3,200), Gio Urshela ($3,000), Ramon Laureano ($3,000), and if they come off the IL to start Tommy La Stella ($2,300) and Kyle Garlick ($2,000).
For the matchups Syndergaard and Severino are my favorite pitchers today going against Texas and Baltimore respectively and for value I love Yusei Kikuchi getting a revenge start against Seattle coming off two stellar performances against the Yankees.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn