MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/17/2022
We have an 8-game main slate on FanDuel, while the 10-game DraftKings main slate includes the second game of both the CHW/KCR and ARI/LAD games.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
CHW/KCR game 2 has a chance of light rain but at worse they play through it or there is a very small mid-game delay but overall it’s probably fine. PIT/CHC also has very light scattered showers that they likely play through with cold temps and a slight breeze blowing in.
HOU/BOS will see 14-16mph wind blowing out to right while MIN/OAK and ARI/LAD game 2 have slight breezes out to center. SFG/COL has ~10mph wind blowing in while NYY/BAL and CHW/KCR have ~9mph cross breezes. SEA/TOR, ATL/MIL, and LAA/TEX are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for PIT/CHC are -31.5% while total runs for HOU/BOS are +11.2%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Buxton is getting a day off but Ronald Acuna is back for the Braves today which bumps Demeritte out of the leadoff spot down to 6th while the Brewers should go as righty-heavy as possible against the lefty Davidson and Willy Adames remains out with his ankle sprain. Tommy La Stella came off the IL yesterday for SF and hit 8th but there is serious risk that he and Pederson could get pinch-hit for the first time they face a lefty reliever like we saw yesterday so just keep that in mind. Matt Duffy is off the IL and will likely be in there against the lefty Hearn and Jeremy Pena is back at SS for HOU while the Orioles are still without Mountcastle and Mateo but Austin Hays will return from his hand laceratino and hit 2nd.
The Giants stack didn’t exactly go as planned yesterday with just Yastrzemski, Estrada, and Casali doing anything as Senzatela got hurt and left the game after 2 innings and with a lefty reliever coming in La Stella and Pederson we’re all pinch-hit for and they carry the same risk today but it’s still a team you can make a very solid stack with as they have a 6.3+ total currently. The safest guys to stack are Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Thairo Estrada, and whoever starts between Wilmer Flores and Evan Longoria and Joey Bart / Curt Casali at C. The Rockies have a team total over 5 currently but at their current prices and matchup against Cobb they are not a must-stack for me today. The Yankees are one of my favorite stacks today in Camden Yards against the righty Watkins who has been awful this season with 3 strikeouts or less in all of his starts and 7 ER in his last start. Other stacks I like include Toronto, Boston, Atlanta, LAA, and Minnesota.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I like trying to fit in both Brandon Belt ($3,700) and Anthony Rizzo ($3,800) at 1B and UTIL and Mike Yastrzemski is the next guy I’m locking in for just $3,200 along with Josh Donaldson at just $3,100. If you want to risk Tommy La Stella ($2,700) and Joc Pederson ($3,300) producing before they potentially get pinch-hit for I’d say it’s probably more of a GPP play but they do have excellent prices if they both see 3+ at-bats and if you can fit in Aaron Judge ($4,500) and/or Giancarlo Stanton ($4,000) then go for it as they have as much upside as anyone today but if you want to go cheaper for NYY exposure then Joey Gallo is a solid play at just $2,600. Other cheap bats I’m liking on FD include Anthony Rendon ($3,000), Eli White ($2,100), Max Kepler ($2,800), and Marcell Ozuna ($2,700).
Looking at DraftKings Mike Yastrzemski is the top play at just $3,300 while Brandon Belt is still a very affordable $4,500 and Tommy La Stella is an excellent $2,100 but again has some early pinch-hit risk. The Yankees big 3 are very expensive all over $5.1k but Josh Donaldson ($3,900) and Joey Gallo ($3,200) have great prices if you want cheaper NYY exposure but I’d still try to fit in at least one of Judge, Stanton, or Rizzo. I mentioned Eli White as a FD bat I like but I like him even more on DK as he’s $2,300 which is relatively much cheaper than FD and hitting leadoff with SB upside and some pop in his bat he offers a great source of salary relief. Other DK bats I’m considering are Anthony Santander ($3,300), Enrique Hernandez ($3,400), Alex Verdugo ($3,200), Max Kepler ($3,400), and Ramon Laureano ($3,000).
For pitching I’m sure Reid Detmers will get a good amount of ownership after his no-hitter last game and he’s still pretty cheap on both sites but I won’t be on him as his strikeout upside is too low for me and his ownership will likely be higher than normal. Jose Berrios is my favorite pitcher on both sites as he’s super cheap and yes he’s coming off two rough starts against NYY and CLE on the road but back at home I think he puts together a solid start against Seattle and his salary really helps you fit in a lot of big bats.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn