MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/27/2022
We’re starting the week with a solid 9-game slate with just one rain spot to monitor and Coors field is back in play with the Dodgers likely to be the highest owned offense of the night.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
OAK/NYY should be fine to complete their game but we may see a late start or even a mid-game delay. Temperatures are down a bit across the country but there’s still plenty of great hitting weather with PIT/WSH, OAK/NYY, MIA/STL, TEX/KCR, LAD/COL, and CHW/LAA all seeing temps in the mid to high 70s with pretty high humidity. BAL/SEA & BOS/TOR are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for OAK/NYY are +8.1% while total runs for MIA/STL are +6.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Angels and Mariners got in a pretty big brawl yesterday after Jesse Winker was hit by a pitch and both teams play today so we’ll see if any there are any suspensions but even if there are expect the players to appeal and be available to play tonight. Jarren Duran is unvaccinated so he won’t be available for Boston in Toronto this series so we’ll likely see Arroyo, Refsnyder, or Cordero at leadoff tonight and Gleyber Torres is dealing with a mild ankle sprain so he’ll likely need a few games off. Carlos Santana was just traded to Seattle so he won’t be available tonight and Harrison Bader just went on the IL so look for Nootbaar to start for him.
The Dodgers in Coors are the clear top stack of the slate with a team total around 6.75 currently so fade them in cash games / single entry GPPs at your own risk but we do have some other really strong stacks in play if you want to go against the LAD chalk. The Yankees and Blue Jays are my next favorite stacks both sitting around 5.5 team totals at home against Blackburn and Seabold respectively and the Nationals have a team total just above 5 at home against a Pirates bullpen game and are a favorite GPP stack of mine today. The Rockies are an interesting stack today as they have a wide range of prices across FD and DK and are facing a pitcher in Tyler Anderson who has been really solid this year with just three games of more than 2 ER allowed this season so I will likely let others take a chance on COL stacks today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Max Muncy ($3,300) and Cody Bellinger ($3,400) at really nice prices hitting 4th and 6th today and I will try to fit at least one of Freddie Freeman ($4,500) or Trea Turner ($4,600) if not both. Next I want some NYY and TOR exposure and Giancarlo Stanton ($3,500) is looking a bit too cheap along with DJ LeMahieu ($3,100), Josh Donaldson ($2,600), and Aaron Hicks ($2,500) and for the Jays I will try to get in at least one or two of their bats that are under $4k in George Springer ($3,600), Bo Bichette ($3,400), Alejandro Kirk ($3,500), and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,300) depending on positional needs. We’re going to need some value bats to fit in the players we want from the top offenses and I’m looking at guys like Daniel Vogelbach ($2,700), Bryan Reynolds ($2,900), Max Kepler ($2,600), Alex Kirilloff ($2,300), Steven Kwan ($2,400), and Cesar Hernandez ($2,500) as potential options.
Looking at DraftKings I still like the prices of Max Muncy ($4,900) and Cody Bellinger ($4,400) and if he’s in the lineup I don’t mind taking a shot on Trayce Thompson at $2k. Stanton ($5k), Donaldson ($3.4k), and Hicks ($2.5k) remain my favorite Yankees for the price and for TOR I’m looking at Springer ($4.8k), Bichette ($5.1k), and Kirk ($4.1k). The Pirates offer a few nice value bats in Oneil Cruz ($3,800), Jack Suwinski ($2,900), and Daniel Vogelbach ($2,500) and on the other side of that game I’m liking Josh Bell ($4,300) and Nelson Cruz ($3,800) as high-upside bats with nice salaries. Other value bats to consider include Alex Verdugo ($3,200), Steven Kwan ($3,000), Alex Kirilloff ($3,100), Yonathan Daza ($3,000), and Gavin Sheets ($2,200).
Right now I’m leaning George Kirby as my SP1 on both sites especially DraftKings where he’s just $7,100 in a great matchup with BAL. Lucas Giolito is extremely tempting on both sites at $8k/$8.3k but coming off b2b starts of just 3 strikeouts and 7+ ER I admittedly have some recency bias on him and will likely fade but it is a slightly better matchup against LAA than his previous two of TOR and HOU. Hopefully the rain stays away in the Yankees game as Jordan Montgomery is my favorite SP2 on DK at just $8,000 against OAK and some other GPP pitchers I like on both sites include Martin Perez, Kevin Gausman, and Kris Bubic.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn