MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/30/22
We have a 5-game main slate on FanDuel and a 7-game main on DraftKings with DK starting at 6:05pm EST and including the ATL/PHI & NYY/HOU games while FD locks at 7:05 and does not include those two games.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
No rain anywhere but we do have 10-15mph wind blowing out in Wrigley along with 85 degree heat making CIN/CHC the best hitting weather today. MIL/PIT & ATL/PHI will both be in the mid 80’s as well while SDP/LAD will be a bit cooler in the low 70s. OAK/SEA, TBR/TOR, and NYY/HOU are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CIN/CHC are +51.8% while total runs for MIL/PIT are +8.9%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Not much lineup news for the five FD games but it will be interesting to see if Christopher Morel remains in the 9-hole after being moved there yesterday and responding with an HR. The two extra games on DK’s main slate have some injury news as Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena are being evaluated for concussions after colliding in yesterday’s game and both are out of the starting lineup today. Ronald Acuna is with the team in Philly and there is a chance he plays tomorrow but he remains out today and newly promoted Darick Hall will remain in the clean-up spot for Philly. JP Crawford is also beginning to serve his suspension tonight so he’s out.
The Cubs are my favorite stack today in great hitting conditions and yes Ashcraft is coming off a really strong start but he’s still allowed an HR in each of his last three starts along with 12 total ER in that span. Hendricks is also coming off a great start but he’s still a very average pitcher and with the heat and wind I think the Reds are in play as a top stack too. At home in hot weather I like the Pirates as well as a sneaky GPP stack against Houser especially on FD where they’re all $3,100 or less. After the Wrigley teams and PIT I’m not loving many other full stacks but I would take a shot on the Mariners, Blue Jays, Brewers, Phillies, and Yankees.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Cubs bats first with Ian Happ ($3,000), Willson Contreras ($3,400), and Rafael Ortega ($2,300) my favorite plays for the price and for a full stack I like adding on either Nico Hoerner ($2,500) or Patrick Wisdom ($3,100) unless Christopher Morel is back in the leadoff spot I’d go with him for $2,900. Joey Votto is the next player I’m locking in for just $2,600 and if you want more Reds I’d go with Tommy Pham ($3,100), Jonathan India ($2,900), or Brandon Drury ($3,400) all at very affordable prices. Next I want some Pirates exposure starting with Bryan Reynolds ($2,800) coming off a monster three HR game along with Daniel Vogelbach ($2,700) and Oneil Cruz ($3,100) at excellent prices. On the other side of that game Rowdy Tellez is at a great $3,200 price with four HR’s over his last three games and Luis Urias is also swinging a hot bat with six hits and two HR’s over his last four games at just $2,900. More value FD bats to consider include Bligh Madris ($2,700), Yandy Diaz ($2,700), Randy Arozarena ($2,900), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,100), Mike Moustakas ($2,500), Trent Grisham ($2,300), Jorge Alfaro ($2,100), and Carlos Santana ($2,400).
Looking at DraftKings I’m starting with Happ ($3,800), Contreras ($4,800), and Ortega ($3,100) and Joey Votto ($3,600) is still too cheap. Out of the Pirates I liked on FD my favorite on DK is Daniel Vogelbach at just $2,600 and I really like the prices of Rowdy Tellez ($3,500), Andrew McCutchen ($3,300), and Luis Urias ($2,900) too. If 1B wasn’t already loaded with value I’d consider Darick Hall at $2,600 but he’s just a GPP option for me if he starts at cleanup again. Other cheap DK bats I like are Kolten Wong ($3,000), Yandy Diaz ($3,400), Mike Moustakas ($3,100), Nico Hoerner ($3,300), Trent Grisham ($3,100), Jesse Winker ($3,800), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,400), and Carlos Santana ($3,300).
On FanDuel I’m going with Logan Gilbert as my SP1 at home in a great matchup with OAK who just had to fly cross-country from NY and on DK I still love Gilbert at $9,500 but with the extra two games we have Aaron Nola and Luis Severino in play as great cash game options and for now I’m leaning with Gilbert/Nola as my cash game duo but Severino will be in serious consideration if Alvarez is out of the lineup for HOU.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn