MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/21/22
Hope everyone had a nice All-Star break and is ready to go for the second half of the season! We’re getting eased back in to MLB DFS with just a 3-game main slate today starting at 1:10pm EST.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
NYY/HOU & TEX/MIA are in domes so no weather concerns there while DET/OAK will be a pleasant 73-76 degrees with winds blowing out ~9mph to center.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for DET/OAK are +4.3% while total runs for DET/OAK are +1.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Yordan Alvarez will come off the IL but won’t start game 1 while Brantley remains on the IL along with Jon Berti and Jazz Chisholm for MIA. The Rangers are giving Corey Seager the day off and the Tigers are giving Miguel Cabrera the day off and the Yankees are sitting Stanton and Donaldson for game 1. We should see very righty heavy lineups for DET/OAK with two lefties starting and both teams have a handful of super cheap options in play. The Astros are my top stack today at home with the highest team total currently while the Tigers are my favorite GPP stack facing the lefty Logue who has allowed 13 ER and 5 HR over his last three starts.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel the Tigers are popping as the top value plays with Javier Baez being my favorite of the group at just $2,600. If Robbie Grossman ($2,200) hits high in the order he’ll also be a top value play for me and if you want the full stack I’d go with Eric Haase ($2,300) and Jonathan Schoop ($2,300). For Houston my favorite bat for the price is Aledmys Diaz at just $2,200 with Yulieski Gurriel also in play at just $2,300. Jeremy Pena ($3,200) and Alex Bregman ($3,400) are in the next price range to consider and if you can fit in Jose Altuve and/or Kyle Tucker I’d try using at least one of them. TEX/MIA has a couple of very solid pitchers so I won’t be looking to target many bats there but I have to mention the salaries of Josh Smith ($2,300), Joey Wendle ($2,200), and Brian Anderson ($2,300) if you need other value plays. Some other bats I like for the price today are Nate Lowe ($2,700), Leody Taveras ($2,900), Jesus Aguilar ($2,400), Sean Murphy ($2,500), Chad Pinder ($2,200), Skye Bolt ($2,100), and Stephen Piscotty ($2,200).
Looking at DraftKings I still like the salaries of Javier Baez ($4,500) and Eric Haase ($4,100) but for the price I prefer Robbie Grossman ($2,300) and Jonathan Schoop ($2,700) as top value plays. The Astros are much more expensive compared to FD but Aledmys Diaz still has a nice price at $3,700 and Alex Bregman is my next favorite option at $5,000. Josh ($3,400), Nate Lowe ($3,700), Joey Wendle ($3,100), Brian Anderson ($2,700), Garrett Cooper ($2,200), Chad Pinder ($2,000), Skye Bolt ($2,000) and Stephen Piscotty ($2,000) are all in play for value depending on positional needs.
Cristian Javier is my favorite pitcher skill-wise going today but I’m not in love with his matchup with the Yankees so I will likely go with Jon Gray as my SP1 on both sites against Miami as it’s a really solid matchup for him and he’s had 7+ strikeouts in each of his last four starts. Tarik Skubal also has a nice matchup with OAK and although he’s been up and down this season I think he puts together a solid outing today and will likely be my SP2 on DK. Pablo Lopez is too expensive for me on FD at $10k but for $7.7k on DK I’d get him in some GPP lineups if you don’t use him in cash games along with Cristian Javier at just $8k even with the tough matchup.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn