MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/25/22
11 games on today’s main slate with a few rain spots to monitor and lots of mediocre pitching across the board so I’m expecting crooked numbers for some offenses.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TBR/BAL, ATL/PHI, and CLE/BOS are all pretty similar with storms clearing around or a bit after the scheduled start times so all three could play on time or after a short delay with CLE/BOS having the highest chance of a mid-game delay. Those three games have slight winds blowing out along with HOU/OAK, WSH/LAD, and SDP/TEX while LAA/KCR and PIT/CHC will have ~5-10mph winds blowing in from right. Tonight’s dome games are COL/MIL, SFG/ARI, and TEX/SEA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for ATL/PHI are +27.4% while total runs for SDP/DET are +13.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Mariners remain without Julio Rodriguez and Jesse Winker is also out today with his rolled ankle but the Pirates will get back Bryan Reynolds from the IL while Rafael Devers and Evan Longoria landed on the IL over the weekend and Adam Duvall is out for the year with a torn tendon in his wrist. JD Martinez also remains out for Boston, Bobby Witt will get a day off to rest his hamstring tightness, Kyle Tucker is getting a day off, and Seth Brown is going on the paternity list.
The Dodgers are my favorite stack tonight sitting at a 5.6 team total currently against the righty Espino who has allowed 13 ER and 6 HRs over his last four starts and has just one game in that stretch with more than four strikeouts. The Astros are my next favorite stack against the low strikeout righty Oller and the Brewers are close behind them as a top stack option against the lefty Freeland who has been rocked over his last three starts. Other stacks I like tonight include ATL, SEA, and SDP.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m locking in Max Muncy for just $2,400 on my favorite stack of the night and assuming they hit above the 8-hole I will likely use at least one of Gavin Lux ($2,600) or Jake Lamb ($2,200) along with Freddie Freeman ($4,200). My next favorite plays for the price are Hunter Renfroe ($3,400) and Andrew McCutchen ($3,000) both with the platoon advantage and swinging hot bats and Christian Yelich ($3,100) is still super cheap even in the L/L matchup. The value mentioned so far should make it pretty easy to fit in Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) as he’s one of the highest upside plays of the night and I also really like the prices of Alex Bregman ($3,000) and Jeremy Pena ($2,900) for HOU. Other value FD bats I like tonight include Alek Thomas ($2,300), David Peralta ($2,300), Mike Brosseau ($2,100), Luis Urias ($2,600), Nomar Mazara ($2,200), Brandon Belt ($2,400), Joc Pederson ($2,400), JP Crawford ($2,900), Eugenio Suarez ($3,000), and Brandon Lowe ($3,000).
Looking at DraftKings my favorite play of the night is Jake Lamb at just $2,200 who could hit as high as 5th tonight while Gavin Lux ($3,500) and Max Muncy ($4,000) are my next favorite Dodgers for the price. Hunter Renfroe is still a bit too cheap at $4,100 while Andrew McCutchen isn’t as much of a priority for me at $4,500 as he is on FD but Mike Brosseau for just $2,500 will be hard to fade if he hits 4th or 5th today. The Diamondbacks have some nice value tonight too in Alek Thomas ($3,000), David Peralta ($2,800) and Jake McCarthy ($2,400). More cheap DK bats to consider are Nomar Mazara ($2,600), Eric Hosmer ($2,500), Cal Mitchell ($2,000), Luis Urias ($3,600), Christian Walker ($3,500), Leody Taveras ($3,500), Abraham Toro ($2,200), and Carlos Santana ($3,200).
For pitching Gonsolin, Fried, and Manaea are probably the safest floor pitchers with Manaea for $8.8k on DK my favorite play of those three against DET. On DK I will likely go a bit cheaper today with JT Brubaker ($7,400) and Jake Odorizzi ($7,800) in high-upside matchups and at salaries that will let you fit in a lot of big bats. Other pitchers to consider in GPPs include Kluber, Syndergaard, Kelly, and Flexen.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn