MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/28/22
Eight games on today’s main slate with a couple rain spots to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
KCR/NYY will likely have some sort of a late-start or mid-game delay but hitters should be fine to see a whole game played but pitchers do carry some risk. CLE/BOS will get hit by that same line of storms from NY but it will be slower to clear when it does hit making this the riskiest game of the day especially for pitchers. This game could see a range of outcomes from an early PPD to playing straight through some rain so make sure to check the weather updates closer to lock. LAD/COL should see heavy rain clear up by game time with just some scattered showers lingering during the game so it should play fine.
PHI/PIT, CLE/BOS and KCR/NYY will see temps in the 80s with slight breezes out to left while LAD/COL and TEX/LAA will see temps in the low 70s with 5mph winds out to center. The dome games today are DET/TOR & SEA/HOU.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for KCR/NYY are +26.7% while total runs for PHI/PIT are +10.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Around midnight Andrew Benintendi was traded to the Yankees and he is already in the lineup tonight hitting leadoff as LeMahieu is getting a day off. Kyle Isbel should get most of the starts in LF for KC now and in other Royals news Bobby Witt remains out and Maikel Garcia will draw the start at SS. Stanton, Story, Devers, Brantley, Trout, and Longoria remain on the IL and Bryan Reynolds is going on the paternity list for a few days so Oneil Cruz will move up to 2nd and Bligh Madris is back with the team and hitting 5th today.
The Dodgers have one of the highest team totals of the season over 7 currently and are the clear top stack against Urena in Coors. The Rockies have a tough matchup against the solid lefty Anderson but I don’t mind using a few of their affordable bats depending on the site and your positional needs but I won’t be stacking them. The Blue Jays are my next favorite stack at home against the lefty Alexander while the Yankees are close behind them at home against the righty Singer in very hot and humid conditions. I like the Angels, Guardians and Phillies as GPP stacks going against mediocre righties in good hitting weather and although they don’t have a high projected team total I think the Tigers are a sneaky stack against the implosion prone Kikuchi.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel a trio of cheap Dodgers are jumping out as top value plays in Max Muncy ($2,400), Jake Lamb ($2,200), and Will Smith ($2,900) while Gavin Lux ($2,600) is also a bit too cheap for this good of a spot. At the beginning of the year it’d be hard to imagine Nick Castellanos falling all the way to $2,300 but that’s where he is and I just can’t fade him at that price knowing his talent and if you want to mini-stack with him with another Philly bat then Kyle Schwarber ($3,300) and Rhys Hoskins ($2,700) are my favorite options. If Andrew Benintendi is in the Yankees lineup I will be all over him at just $2,900 and another OF I really like for $2,900 is Taylor Ward. If you need some more value then I’d consider a few Tigers bats in Jeimer Candelario ($2,400), Javier Baez ($2,600), Robbie Grossman ($2,400), and Eric Haase ($2,400) while the Giants also have a few solid value plays in Austin Slater ($2,400), Thairo Estrada ($2,500), and birthday boy Darin Ruf ($2,600). More cheap FD bats to consider include Luis Rengifo ($2,400), Jared Walsh ($2,600), Randal Grichuk ($2,800), Jesse Winker ($2,300), Franmil Reyes ($2,300), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,000), Alec Bohm ($2,700), and Darick Hall ($2,800).
Looking at DraftKings my top value play is again Jake Lamb at just $2,100 hitting 5th today in Coors while Max Muncy should be one of the most popular plays of the day at just $3,800 and even if they hit low in the order I still like the prices of Gavin Lux ($3,500) and Cody Bellinger ($3,600). Andrew Benintendi isn’t as much of a priority at $4,200 as he is on FD but he’s still very affordable while the Blue Jays have a couple OFs at great prices in Teoscar Hernandez ($4,600) and Lourdes Gurriel ($3,900). If you need extra salary or want to fade the Muncy chalk I’d consider Jeimer Candelario at 3B for just $2,600 as he’s 8 for his last 13 with 3 HRs and 2 doubles and should continue to be low-owned. Other value bats on DK I like are Darick Hall ($3,600), Nick Castellanos ($3,900), Alec Bohm ($3,800), Miguel Cabrera ($2,100), Jonathan Schoop ($2,300), Robbie Grossman ($2,800), Franmil Reyes ($3,300), Nolan Jones ($2,600), Jared Walsh ($2,900), Austin Slater ($3,000), and Darin Ruf ($3,200).
Shohei Ohtani is my SP1 on both sites and I’d expect him to be one of the highest-owned pitchers of the season on DK at just $8,900. Zack Wheeler will be my SP2 on DK but if you want to go cheaper then Alex Wood ($7,500) would be my favorite option. McKenzie, Gilbert, Urquidy, and Taillon are the remaining SPs I like for GPPs.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn