MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/1/22
We have a 9-game main slate to begin the week (and month) and just one rain spot to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
ARI/CLE will see a few scattered showers and storms in the area and if one lands over the stadium a delay or late-start is possible but the game should be played in full in 80 degree temps with 12 mph winds blowing out. NYM/WSH will be the hottest game of the day with temps in the mid 80s and humidity between 60 and 80% while SEA/NYY, DET/MIN, and KCR//CHW will all be similar conditions with temps in the high 70s and slight breezes blowing out. The dome games are BOS/HOU & BAL/TEX.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for KCR/CHW are +35.3% while total runs for ARI/CLE are +28.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Mariners lost Julio Rodriguez and Dylan Moore to the IL yesterday while Ty France had a clean MRI on his wrist but will need some more time off. Kris Bryant aggravated his foot injury midway through yesterday’s game and will sit today but Corey Seager will return for TEX after missing the last three games with a leg contusion. Thairo Estrada went on the 7-day concussion IL over the weekend so Crawford and Machado should handle SS duties for SF and David Peralta was traded to the Rays so the ARI lineup will look slightly different against righties. Lastly the Padres should get Wil Myers back and we’ll see how Hosmer feels after exiting yesterday with a slight neck strain while the Twins will get Gio Urshela back from the paternity list and Celestino will go on the paternity list. More news of the day includes Daniel Lynch now starting for KC instead of Keller, Trey Mancini being traded to HOU, Christian Vazquez traded to HOU, Alex Bregman going on the paternity list, and a few big names getting days off in Byron Buxton, Franmil Reyes, Javier Baez, and Bobby Witt.
We’re finally out of Coors field so the Dodgers are not my top stack today and that honor belongs to both NY teams sitting at team totals over 5 against pretty weak lefties. I’ll give the slight edge to the Yankees as top stack as they’re at home and have more bats I like for DFS purposes and they’re facing Gonzales who has allowed 12 ER and 3 HR’s over his last three starts. The Mets get the lefty Corbin who has allowed 16 ER and 3 HR over his last three starts and are hitting in some of the best weather of the slate for bats. CHW & CLE come in as my next favorite stacks both at home against mediocre pitchers in good hitting conditions while the Astros, Padres and Rangers are my favorite lower-owned GPP stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with cheap righty bats on the NY teams in DJ LeMahieu ($3,300), Gleyber Torres ($3,200), Josh Donaldson ($2,700), J.D. Davis ($2,300), and Mark Canha ($2,500) and then will try to fit in Aaron Judge ($5,000) and at least one of Starling Marte ($3,800), Pete Alonso ($4,100), and Francisco Lindor ($3,600). To help fit those expensive bats I will be going to the White Sox next for value and will pick and choose from Yoan Moncada ($2,400), Yasmani Grandal ($2,100), and Eloy Jimenez ($2,700) depending on positional needs and salary available. More value bats I like include Wil Myers ($2,300), Jurickson Profar ($2,900), Jeimer Candelario ($2,400), Victor Reyes ($2,200), Steven Kwan ($2,900), Adam Frazier ($2,300), and Jesse Winker ($2,400).
Looking at DraftKings It’s going to be harder to fit all the NY bats I like especially Judge at $6.4k and Alonso at $6.3k but I still really like the salaries of Josh Donaldson ($3,900), Mark Canha ($3,500), and especially J.D. Davis ($2,100) while Gleyber Torres ($4,800) and Francisco Lindor ($5,600) are my next favorites for the price. The White Sox are also priced up compared to FD but I still like Yasmani Grandal ($4,400) at C and I like the prices of Eloy Jimenez ($4,100) and Jose Abreu ($4,800). If Wil Myers is in the lineup tonight for SD then I will definitely be using him for just $2,500 and I still like the price of Profar at $3,900 coming off b2b HR games. Other DK bats to consider for the price are Adam Frazier ($2,800), Jesse Winker ($3,100), Alek Thomas ($3,200), Jeimer Candelario ($3,200), Victor Reyes ($2,100), Jarren Duran ($3,000), Alex Verdugo ($3,200), Leody Taveras ($3,200), Nate Lowe ($3,300), and Kole Calhoun ($2,100).
Max Scherzer is the clear SP1 on both sites and Mike Clevinger is my top SP2 while Jon Gray is my favorite GPP pitcher.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn