MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/29/22
We have an interesting main slate today as FanDuel is going with 6 games starting at 7:07pm EST while DraftKings is going with 8 games starting at 6:40pm EST so make sure to have your lineups ready to go earlier if you’re playing on DK!
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how the weather will impact the slate. We need to know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to utilize are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
There should be no weather concerns on FD, with BOS/MIN & NYY/LAA both looking at mid 70s temps with some wind blowing out to center. Meanwhile, SDP/SFG will be in the high 50s with 10-15mph wind out as well and the other three games (PHI/ARI, PIT/MIL, CHC/TOR) are in domes. On DK, there could be some issues with the STL/CIN game as right now it’s looking like scattered showers and storms in the area that could cause a delay, so we’ll need to see how things end up looking closer to lock.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for SD/SF are +11.2% while total runs for BOS/MIN are +18.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Not much major news as far as starting lineups go, but the Pirates are calling Jack Suwinski back up so expect to see him in the lineup. The Diamondbacks are calling up lefty outfielder Corbin Carroll, who could crack the lineup even in the L/L matchup and the Angels will get Taylor Ward back in the lineup after he missed the Toronto series for being unvaccinated. In the two early DK games we won’t see Jesus Aguilar as he was sent down by Miami and is now a FA while Garrett Cooper came off the IL a couple days ago and for CIN look for Colin Moran to continue to start against righties with Moustakas now on the IL. The Dodgers are also giving Mookie Betts a day off so Trea Turner will hit leadoff and Joey Gallo will take Betts’ spot in RF while the Jays are giving Teoscar Hernandez a day off along with Nick Castellanos getting a breather for PHI.
After getting blanked yesterday, I’m expecting the Phillies to put up at least five runs today against Bumgarner and their big four righties are my favorite stack of the day. On DK, I love the Cardinals stack going against Chase Anderson, especially with a couple of their bats way underpriced. Also in the top stack group I’m including Toronto at home against Assad, who did pretty well in his debut a week ago, but still allowed 4 hits and 4 walks over four innings. Other stacks I like include BOS, MIL, and NYY.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Philly righties in Rhys Hoskins ($3,400) and Alec Bohm ($3,200) as priorities, while JT Realmuto is a bit more expensive at $3,600 but still a solid play if you want more righties against Bumgarner. Next, I’m looking at cheap exposure to TOR and MIL in Bo Bichette ($3,200), Lourdes Gurriel ($2,800), Christian Yelich ($3,200), and Rowdy Tellez ($2,800), who should all be at least $200-$400 more expensive but I will happily use them at those prices. Brayan Bello was great in his last start but I still like the values of Carlos Correa ($3,000), Max Kepler ($2,500), and Nick Gordon ($2,200) if you need to fill a position. Also, Tommy Pham ($3,100), Alex Verdugo ($2,800), and JD Martinez ($3,000) are all solid plays at great prices against Bundy in that same game, which has the biggest HR bump with the wind blowing out. More bats I like on FD include Alejandro Kirk ($3,000), Cavan Biggio ($2,200), Luis Arraez ($3,100), Kolten Wong ($2,700), Josh Donaldson ($2,900), Emmanuel Rivera ($2,500), and Stone Garrett ($2,800).
Looking at DraftKings, I’m really hoping the STL/CIN game clears up enough for the bats to be safe plays as Lars Nootbaar ($3,000) and Brendan Donovan ($3,200) are two of my favorite value plays hitting at the top of the order and, if Corey Dickerson ($2,200) is in the lineup today, he will also be very hard to fade at that price. Next, I’m locking in Christian Yelich ($4,100) and Rowdy Tellez ($3,900) who again are just too cheap against whoever the Pirates end up starting today. Kolten Wong ($3,100) is also an excellent value play with five hits over his last two games including two HRs. For the Phillies, Alec Bohm ($4,400) and Jean Segura ($4,200) are my favorite plays for the price and if you’re not using Tellez at 1B I’d go with Rhys Hoskins ($5,000) as the next best option. For Toronto, I might go with Lourdes Gurriel ($4,400) to have some exposure to them while the rest of the top bats are all $5k+ so aren’t as big of a priority as other options today. Some other bats to consider at great prices include Max Kepler ($3,100), Nick Gordon ($2,000), Jake Cave ($2,000), Alex Verdugo ($3,500), TJ Friedl ($2,100), Cavan Biggio ($2,100), Emmanuel Rivera ($2,700), and Stone Garrett ($2,200).
Corbin Burnes is the clear SP1 on both sites while the SP2 spot on DK is a bit more interesting with another strong expensive option in Rodon but right now I’m leaning towards using a cheaper guy in Jose Berrios ($7,600) or Frankie Montas ($7,200). For GPPs, I like taking shots on Ranger Suarez, Mike Clevinger, and Brayan Bello.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn