MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/30/22
Big 12-game main slate today but just one game with any real rain concerns.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
OAK/WSH will likely have rain at first pitch that should clear out enough to play after a late start but things could chance closer to game time so check back here if you plan on using any players there. LAD/NYM has a slight chance of a mid to late inning delay but they could just play through occasional light showers and COL/ATL could see a brief late start but will play fine when it starts. SEA/DET, LAD/NYM, KCR/CHW, and SDP/SFG will all see 10+ mph winds out to left-center and today’s dome games are CHC/TOR, HOU/TEX, PIT/MIL, and PHI/ARI.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for KCR/CHW are +30.8% while total runs for LAD/NYM are +25.9%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Yordan Alvarez and Luis Robert both remain out today and Nick Castellanos will get another day off with his turf toe (along with JT Realmuto for rest) and the Brewers will give Rowdy Tellez some time after he left early yesterday with knee tendinitis. Ronald Acuna also remains out for ATL and Michael Harris will move up to 2nd in the order. Evan Longoria said he’s going to try to play through his hamstring injury but I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up out along with Joey Bart who left early after taking a foul tip off his mask yesterday and the Dodgers are giving Will Smith and Justin Turner days off.
The Braves are my top stack today at home in 85 degree heat with a slight breeze blowing out going against Jose Urena who just allowed 9 ER in his last start and has allowed 33 ER over his last seven starts. My next favorite stack is the Brewers at home against Mitch Keller who has 3 or less strikeouts in four of his last five starts and a lot of the MIL bats are still underpriced on both sites. After those two I like the Yankees, Astros, Twins, Red Sox, and Dodgers for GPP stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel my favorite play today is Kolten Wong for just $2,700 who is hitting cleanup today with Tellez out with his knee injury and I will be pairing him with Christian Yelich ($3,400) who is still slightly under-priced. Willy Adames ($3,600) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,400) are my next favorite MIL bats if you want a full stack and if you need some extreme savings I’d consider going with Jace Peterson ($2,000) over one of those last two. I definitely want some Braves exposure in cash games and Eddie Rosario ($2,200) is looking like a solid value play while Travis d’Arnaud ($3,000) is my favorite ATL bat for the price likely hitting 5th. Between the big four Braves at the top of the order I’d rank them in priority as Olson ($4k), Harris ($3.6k), Riley ($3.9k), and Swanson ($3.8k). The BOS/MIN game is one of my favorites for value plays with guys like Max Kepler ($2,500), Nick Gordon ($2,200), Carlos Correa ($3,100), Tommy Pham ($3,100), Alex Verdugo ($2,800), and JD Martinez ($3,000) all in play at great prices hitting in solid hitting weather. Some more FD value to consider includes Lane Thomas ($2,300), Seth Brown ($2,500), Darin Ruf ($2,500), Max Muncy ($2,800), Jeremy Pena ($2,900), Keston Hiura ($2,800), Oneil Cruz ($2,800), and Bryan Reynolds ($2,900).
Looking at DraftKings I’m still starting with Kolten Wong ($3,100) and Christian Yelich ($4,100) who are just way too cheap for the matchup and the way they’re swinging the bat lately and Hunter Renfroe ($4,000) will almost certainly make my main build as well at that price. Eddie Rosario ($2,900) and Travis d’Arnaud ($3,600) remain my favorite ATL bats for the price and I would prioritize Michael Harris ($4,200) and Matt Olson ($5,100) as the next best guys to target. Max Kepler ($3,100) is right behind Wong as my favorite value play of the day at the same crazy cheap price and if Nick Gordon ($2,000) continues to hit 5th he remains a very strong value play at minimum price. Luis Arraez ($4,000) and Alex Verdugo ($3,700) are my next favorite plays for the price in that BOS/MIN game and some other bats I like on DK today are Lane Thomas ($2,300), Seth Brown ($2,900), Darin Ruf ($3,600), Jeremy Pena ($3,500), Andrew McCutchen ($3,700), Jace Peterson ($3,300), Keston Hiura ($2,700), and Rodolfo Castro ($2,400).
Max Fried is my SP1 on both sites as his matchup against COL and the likely offensive support behind him gives him one of the safest floors and highest upside combos which is what I’m looking for in a cash game pitcher. Deciding between Aaron Nola, Framber Valdez, and Kevin Gausman is going to be tough for that SP2 spot on DK but I’m leaning towards Nola right now and for GPPs I really like Kirby, Manning, Heaney, Singer, Gallen, and Snell.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn