MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/2/22
It’s a big 13-game slate to end the week with great weather across most of the country and a couple rain spots to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how the weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on Twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
CHC/STL will see light rain throughout the day and night so they could decide to just not play at all or play through the rain so just know there is some risk of delays or an early ending depending on the severity of the rain during game time. MIA/ATL could see a pop-up storm over the ballpark, which might cause a delay at some point. That means there’s a slight risk using SPs there, but it could become much safer as we get closer to lock, so check that game throughout the day. OAK/BAL, KCR/DET, SEA/CLE, MIA/ATL, MIN/CHW, CHC/STL, HOU/LAA, and SDP/LAD will all see temps in the high 70s to low 80s with HOU/LAA seeing 5-8mph winds blowing out to left. The other games have negligible winds or slight breezes blowing in. TEX/BOS and PHI/SFG are the coolest games of the day with temps in the 60s and the dome games are MIL/ARI and NYY/TBR.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on today’s weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CHC/STL are +15.1% while total runs for WSH/NYM are -12.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Luis Robert flew home Thursday for the birth of his child, so along with his wrist injury, he won’t be in the lineup today. Eloy Jimenez had to leave yesterday’s game early with leg soreness and he will need a day off today while Yoan Moncada remains on the IL. Yordan Alvarez will return for Houston while Jorge Polanco remains out for Minnesota and Nick Castellanos will return after missing a bunch of games. Anthony Rizzo won’t be in today as he stayed behind in California to see a back specialist and Brett Baty is out indefinitely for the Mets after having thumb surgery. Willson Contreras is still dealing with foot/ankle soreness and remains out while Christian Yelich left early yesterday with neck discomfort and will be out today along with Trea Turner for the Dodgers just getting a day off.
The Red Sox are my top stack today at home against the lefty Keuchel, who is just not an MLB caliber pitcher anymore with 39 ER over his last seven starts including back-to-back starts recently with seven ER in each. The Cardinals are my next favorite stack at home against the mediocre righty Sampson who faced STL in his last start and got shelled for five ER over three innings with no strikeouts and two HRs. After those two, there’s a good amount of solid stacks to target including the Mets, Orioles, Royals, Twins, Astros, and Brewers.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for today’s confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel, I’m starting with some Cardinals value in Brendan Donovan ($2,500), Lars Nootbaar ($3,300), and Tyler ONeill ($3,300) which should give you enough salary to fit in Goldschmidt or Arenado if you want the full stack (this all assuming they decide to play through the rain). Next I want some Red Sox exposure with JD Martinez ($3,200) being my favorite play for the price while Tommy Pham ($3,500) and Xander Bogaerts ($3,800) are pretty affordable with the platoon advantage and I still like Alex Verdugo ($3,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,900) even in the L/L matchup. JP Sears is a low strikeout lefty so the Orioles offer some great value righties today with Ramon Urias ($2,500), Ryan Mountcastle ($2,500), Jesus Aguilar ($2,000), and if he hits leadoff I like Ryan McKenna ($2,100) too. The Royals are also facing a low strikeout pitcher in Hutchison so I’d consider MJ Melendez ($2,400), Nick Pratto ($2,600), and Michael Massey ($2,100) for value options with the platoon advantage. Some other bats I like for the price today include Daniel Vogelbach ($2,500), Jesse Winker ($2,300), Max Kepler ($2,600), Nick Gordon ($2,500), Corey Dickerson ($2,300), Kolten Wong ($3,100), and Rowdy Tellez ($2,800).
Looking at DraftKings, I’m probably starting with Lars Nootbaar ($3,000) and Brendan Donovan ($2,700) hitting at the top of the order for excellent prices (if the weather allows this game to play) and, although the other big bats for STL are super expensive, you might be able to fit one or two in if you include Corey Dickerson ($2,000) in your lineup. A couple other extreme value plays that I just can’t fade for the price and matchup are Nick Pratto ($2,000) and Nick Gordon ($2,200). In KC and MIN I also really like the prices of Michael Taylor ($2,500), Michael Massey ($2,000), Max Kepler ($3,200), and Jake Cave ($2,100). All of this great value should make it pretty easy to fit in a few BOS bats with JD Martinez ($4,400) and Xander Bogaerts ($5,100) my favorite options with the platoon advantage, while Pham ($4.5k), Verdugo ($3.7k), and Devers ($5.8k) are all still in play. More cheap DK bats to consider are Ramon Urias ($3,100), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,800), Lane Thomas ($2,100), Luke Voit ($3,200), Kolten Wong ($3,500), and Stone Garrett ($2,300).
Charlie Morton and Luis Castillo are my top SPs today but I also really like Kyle Gibson on DK for just $7,500. There are too many other pitchers to list that I like for GPPs, but a few of my favorites are Alcantara, Montgomery, German, May, Peterson, and Cobb.
Keep checking LineupHQ for when we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based on the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn