MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/8/22
With NFL starting tonight we have one of the smallest main slates of the MLB season with just three games starting at 6:45pm EST.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
No rain to worry about tonight with MIA/PHI & MIN/NYY looking at similar temps in the low 70s with slight breezes blowing in. CHW/OAK will start with temps in the low 80s that dip in to the mid to low 70s as the night goes on with a slight breeze blowing out.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIN/NYY are -13% while total runs for PHI/MIA are -8.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Yankees remain without Anthony Rizzo and will also be without Josh Donaldson who is on the paternity list. DJ LeMahieu is heading to the IL and Giancarlo Stanton will remain out today as well.
Luis Robert is dealing with more hand/wrist soreness and is out today. Jon Berti and Avisail Garcia recently returned from injuries for Miami but Nick Castellanos remains sidelined with his oblique injury along with Byron Buxton for the Twins who will also sit Luis Arraez and Max Kepler against the lefty Cortes.
The White Sox are my top stack just by process of elimination as the other five offenses going today are facing solid pitchers. JP Sears has been pretty good as far as ER allowed but isn’t a high strikeout guy and gives up a good amount of walks so I think CHW has the best chance of putting up a crooked number out of the six offenses in play. MIN would be my next choice for a stack followed by MIA.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’d start with a full stack of the White Sox of Elvis Andrus ($2,200), Eloy Jimenez ($2,600), Andrew Vaughn ($2,600), and Jose Abreu ($3,300) and with those prices it should be no problem fitting in Dylan Cease as your SP for $10.8k. It should also be pretty easy to fit in Aaron Judge ($5,100) who I could only see fading in GPPs as his ownership should be super high in all formats on such a short slate and other Yankees value to help fit him includes Aaron Hicks ($2,000), Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($2,300), and Gleyber Torres ($$2,400).
Nestor Cortes hasn’t been as dominant of late before going on the IL so I don’t mind targeting a couple Twins bats to help fill out your main build with Carlos Correa ($3,200) being the highest upside play and a bunch of value options around him in Kyle Garlick ($2,100), Jose Miranda ($2,600), Gio Urshela ($2,200), and Gary Sanchez ($2,400).
Looking at DraftKings fitting in Dylan Cease and Sandy Alcantara as your SPs should be no problem as both are somehow under $10k and the White Sox full stack is crazy cheap with Abreu, Vaughn, and Jimenez all around $4k while Andrus, Moncada, and Pollock are super cheap at $2.8k-$3.2k.
I’d still try to fit Aaron Judge in at $6,400 and you should be able to do so with some value bats from the group of Kyle Garlick ($2,300), Jose Miranda ($3,300), Gio Urshela ($2,800), Gary Sanchez ($2,900), Aaron Hicks ($2,200), Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($2,900), Marwin Gonzalez ($2,000), Joey Wendle ($3,700), Brian Anderson ($2,600), and JJ Bleday ($2,200).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn