MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/15/22
We have differing main slates today with FanDuel including PHI/MIA for a six game main slate starting at 6:40pm EST while DraftKings is leaving that game off for a five game main slate starting at 7:20pm EST.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
KC/MIN might see some very light rain, but it should play fine with temps in the high 70s and a 9 mph breeze blowing right to left. CIN/STL will see similar temps in the mid 70s with less wind blowing right to left, while PIT/NYM will be in the high 60s with a 6-8mph winds blowing left to right. PHI/MIA, OAK/HOU, and SDP/ARI are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for KC/MIN are -14.8% while total runs for PIT/NYM are -14.6%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
On FanDuel, we won’t see Rhys Hoskins today after getting drilled by a pitch on his right hand yesterday (Jean Segura will hit 2nd) and Avisail Garcia landed on the IL with a hamstring strain for Miami (Brian Anderson also getting a day off for MIA). Luis Arraez left yesterday’s game early with hamstring tightness will miss at least today’s game if not longer. Jose Altuve is getting a day off for Houston along with Mark Canha for the Mets.
The Astros and Cardinals are my favorite stacks with both at home against mediocre righties, while the Padres, Twins, and Mets round out of my top five stacks for today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel, I like starting with Jeremy Pena ($2,600) and Aledmys Diaz ($2,000) for value to help fit in Yordan Alvarez ($4,100) and/or Kyle Tucker ($3,700). Chase Anderson has been a reverse splits pitcher over his career so I’d try fitting in Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600) or Nolan Arenado ($4,100). Meanwhile Albert Pujols ($3,000) and Tyler ONeill ($3,300) are cheaper alternatives to a power righty bat for STL.
The Twins and Padres have a bunch of value options in Kyle Garlick ($2,300), Jose Miranda ($3,000), Gio Urshela ($2,600), Gary Sanchez ($2,500), Jurickson Profar ($2,600), Josh Bell ($2,800), and Jake Cronenworth ($3,000) all with the platoon advantage while Daniel Vogelbach ($2,700) and Jeff McNeil ($3,100) are decent value options for the Mets.
Looking at DraftKings, I think we’re going to have to use a few Twins bats to fit in the pitchers and expensive bats we want with Garlick, Miranda, Urshela, and Sanchez all between $2.4k and $3.3k. Jurickson Profar ($3,700) and Jake Cronenworth ($3,800) remain solid value plays and I’ll also include Emmanuel Rivera ($2,900) and Stone Garrett ($2,400) for value options in that game as Manaea has really struggled of late.
I want the big STL righty bats, but I have to mention Albert Pujols ($2,600) and Brendan Donovan ($3,300) as they are too cheap to not consider. I will also do my best to get in Yordan Alvarez ($6,200) or Kyle Tucker ($5,500) with Jeremy Pena ($4,600) and Aledmys Diaz ($3,800) still my favorite HOU bats for the price.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn