MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/23/22
To end the week we have a big twelve-game main slate with just one rain spot to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on Twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
LAA/MIN will be cold with 10mph wind blowing in and will likely require a late start at the minimum if it’s not PPD as it’s looking like moderate rain around first pitch and then light rain for most of the evening. They could wait a while and then play in miserable wet conditions or decide to play a double-header in better weather tomorrow, but overall this is not a game I’m looking to target today.
The rest of the games are clear of rain but most will be pretty cold in the 50s or low 60s except STL/LAD, NYM/OAK, and SDP/COL which will be in the mid-70s. STL/LAD & BOS/NYY will see ~12mph winds out to right while SDP/COL & ATL/PHI will have ~9mph winds blowing in and today’s dome games are TOR/TBR, CLE/TEX, and SFG/ARI.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on today’s weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for STL/LAD are +20.7% while total runs for SEA/KCR are -12.9%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Julio Rodriguez had to leave in the 1st inning yesterday after re-aggravating his back and will almost certainly be out today while Ronald Acuna was a late-scratch yesterday with mid-back tightness and will be out again today. Trevor Story landed on the IL with his heel injury so Chang, Hernandez, and Arroyo will cover the 2B spot for now while Santiago Espinal also landed on the IL for TOR so Merrifield and Biggio will handle 2B. Brandon Nimmo is dealing with some quad tightness and can be considered questionable today while Yandy Diaz remains out for TB and Xander Bogaerts, Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman, CJ Cron, Carlos Correa, Josh Bell, and Kyle Tucker are getting days off.
The Padres are by far my top stack of the day hitting in warm weather in Coors against the mediocre righty Feltner who has allowed 3+ ER in each of his last five starts. The Rockies are my next favorite stack against the lefty Manaea who has really fallen apart lately with 16 ER over his last 14 IP. Outside of Coors, the Yankees are my favorite stack at home against the lefty Hill followed by the Astros, Giants, White Sox, and Dodgers.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for today’s confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m going to do my best to fit in both Juan Soto ($4,300) and Manny Machado ($4,400) as their upside in Coors is just too high to fade in cash games for me while Jurickson Profar ($3,100) is my favorite value bat for SD followed by Jake Cronenworth ($3,500), Brandon Drury ($3,600), and Ha-seong Kim ($3,200)
In order to fit in Soto and Machado, we’re going to need some extreme value and the Giants look like the team to go to for that as they face the lefty Henry and are loaded with cheap righties. Austin Slater ($2,200), Evan Longoria ($2,300), Wilmer Flores ($2,400), JD Davis ($2,200), and David Villar ($2,500) are all crazy cheap so depending on positional needs I will likely use 2-3 from this group for value.
The Rockies also have some great value to choose from in Randal Grichuk ($2,700), Michael Toglia ($2,700), Elehuris Montero ($2,800), and Connor Joe ($2,500) and if you need some more value today I like Jonathan Aranda ($2,100), Josh Donaldson ($3,000), Wander Franco ($2,900), Jarred Kelenic ($2,000), Mark Canha ($2,500), Albert Pujols ($2,900), and Chris Taylor ($2,200).
Looking at DraftKings I still want to jam in Soto and Machado for $5.4k each and I really like the price of Jurickson Profar ($3,700) at leadoff. Yonathan Daza ($3,000) is my favorite COL bat for the price while Montero ($3,400), Grichuk ($4,100), Toglia ($3,600), Joe ($4,000), and Diaz ($3,600) are all in play too.
Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,800) is still at an excellent price for cheap Yankees exposure and Jonathan Aranda ($2,600) is looking like a great value option at either 1B or 2B coming off a 23 FP game yesterday for TB. An even cheaper option is Jarred Kelenic ($2,000) who was just called back up to the majors and responded with a double and an HR yesterday.
Albert Pujols ($2,900) is another fine cheap option today as he chases 700 HRs while Austin Slater ($3,100), Evan Longoria ($3,400), JD Davis ($3,100), and David Villar ($2,500) are the best value options for SF.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn