MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 5th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Toronto at Philadelphia
| Toronto | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| J.A. Happ | Vegas Moneyline | Kyle Kendrick | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | PHI (-110) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.300 | 0.780 | 0.351 | 17.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.706 | 0.314 | 14.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.711 | 0.318 | 19.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.307 | 0.768 | 0.347 | 13.2% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP  | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
J.A. Happ – Manager John Gibbons has decided to try out a 6-man rotation which means Happ will join the starting rotation. Happ has appeared in 3 games this season, but will make his first start tonight against the Phillies. Happ started 18 games last season and posted a 4.56 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.5. The total for this game is set at 9.0 runs and I don’t expect either pitcher to find much success in this one. Happ has had a decent K-rate throughout his career, but the Philllies hit LH pitching well and I’m not sure how deep into the game Happ will pitch. Rating = 3
Kyle Kendrick – Through his first 5 starts this season Kendrick has a 3.52 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and 19 K’s over 30 innings of work. While those numbers are an improvement over the last two seasons, Kendrick is not a great fantasy option tonight. Not only does he have a low K-rate, but he faces a very tough Blue Jays lineup that has really been heating up ever since Jose Reyes came back from his injury. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Reyes – Reyes is only batting .188 on the season, but does have a 3-game hitting streak going and he finally stole his first base of the season. His price across the industry is depressed thanks to his slow start and now is the perfect time to buy low on the speedy SS. It also doesn’t hurt that Kendrick gave up a .347 wOBA to RH batters last season.
Additional Plays: Jose Bautista, Melky Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Colby Rasmus
Philadelphia
Chase Utley – Happ’s splits to RH and LH batters are pretty similar over the last 3 seasons, but he gave up a much higher wOBA (.351) to LH batters last season. Utley is a lefty that can hit LH pitching well as he is batting .343 against southpaws this season.
Additional Plays: Carlos Ruiz, Marlon Byrd
Minnesota at Cleveland
| Minnesota | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Kyle Gibson | Vegas Moneyline | Zach McAllister | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-160) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.339 | 0.832 | 0.375 | 9.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.739 | 0.330 | 17.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.721 | 0.328 | 15.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.692 | 0.311 | 18.1% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kyle Gibson – After a nice start to the season, Gibson has given up 12 earned runs over his last 2 outings against the Rays and the Dodgers. His biggest issue is getting outs against LH batters which does not bode well for his matchup tonight against the Indians who have great hitters throughout their lineup that bat from the left side of the plate. Rating = 3
Zach McAllister – McAllister may not be a popular name in daily fantasy baseball, but he is worth roster consideration tonight against the Twins. He is one of the bigger favorites on the schedule tonight in a game that features a total of only 8.0 runs. McAllister has a 3.82 ERA on the season with 28 K’s over 33 innings of work. I think he picks up his 4th win of the season tonight. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Brian Dozier – Dozier makes a great tournament play tonight because he has a ton of upside for his price and he usually flies under the radar. Dozier has already hit 8 HR’s this season and has stolen 11 bases. He is also coming into this game with a 6-game hitting streak.
Additional Plays: Joe Mauer (if in the lineup after dealing with back spasms yesterday)
Cleveland
Carlos Santana – Gibson has really struggled against LH batters in his career. Last season he gave up an OPS of .832 to lefties and this season has has given up an OPS of .789. Santana is finally out of his slump and while his price has started to come up across the industry, he is still under-priced for the level of production he brings to the table.
Additional Plays: Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Michael Bourn
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
| San Francisco | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Yusmeiro Petit | Vegas Moneyline | Jeff Locke | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SFG (-119) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.202 | 0.552 | 0.260 | 20.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 0.710 | 0.341 | 11.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.695 | 0.304 | 26.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.662 | 0.302 | 19.4% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Yusmeiro Petit – Petit has a 2.61 ERA this season with 20 K’s over 20 innings of work, but he has only made 1 start, the rest his work was out of the bullpen. Petit is not the safest cash game play, but he does make an interesting tournament play as his price is cheap across the industry and he is a small favorite tonight against the Pirates in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Rating = 5
Jeff Locke – Locke will get the start tonight as Wandy Rodriguez is still a few days away from returning to the rotation. Locke started 30 games last season and posted a 3.52 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.8. He has struggled in the minors this season with an ERA close to 5.00, but the K’s have been there. If he pitches well, the Pirates will likely allow him to pitch deep into this game which makes him an interesting tournament play. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Buster Posey – Over the last 3 seasons, Posey is batting .354 with a 1.03 OPS against LH pitching. That’s close to being the best in baseball against LH pitching. Locke has not been sharp in the minors this season and Posey makes a great play if you are willing to spend up at Catcher.
Additional Plays: Hunter Pence
Pittsburgh
Pedro Alvarez – Pedro is a tough player to use in cash games because he does not hit for a high average and strikes out a lot (which kills his value on DS). That said, he makes a solid tournament play against Petit who gave up a .328 wOBA to LH batters last season. Alvarez has great power against RH pitching and is one of the few players in daily fantasy that has multi-HR upside every night.
Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen
LA Dodgers at Washington
| LA Dodgers | Washington | ||||||||
| Zack Greinke | Vegas Moneyline | Jordan Zimmermann | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | LAD (-110) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.730 | 0.328 | 20.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.709 | 0.312 | 17.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.209 | 0.554 | 0.253 | 24.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.220 | 0.594 | 0.271 | 21.7% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Zack Greinke – Two great pitchers square of tonight in Nationals Park. In 6 starts this season, Greinke has posted a 2.04 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a K/9 of 11.8. Those numbers rival any starting pitcher in baseball. The total for this game is set at 7.0 runs, but I’d be surprised if these two offenses can muster up that many runs with these dominant pitchers on the mound. Greinke has a little more upside than Zimmermann in this matchup as he does have the higher K-rate and the better offense to support him. Rating = 9
Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmermann is coming off of his best start of the season in which he threw 6 scoreless innings against the Astros while striking out 7 batters. He is still working on getting his pitch count down though. His ability to keep his pitch count low and pitch deep into games is one of his best qualities in terms of DFS. I think he makes a nice play here, but the Dodgers’ offense does scare me a little and Greinke has the higher upside of the two starting pitchers. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
L.A. Dodgers
Hanley Ramirez – Hanley is off to a slow start in terms of hitting for average, but he still has 3 HR’s and 3 stolen bases this season. He also has good numbers off of Zimmermann in his career going 9/20 with a HR.
Additional Plays: Adrian Gonzalez
Washington
Greinke has been tough on hitters all season and has finally learned how to pitch on the road. There are much better options for batters in some of the other games tonight.
Houston at Detroit
| Houston | Detroit | ||||||||
| Jarred Cosart | Vegas Moneyline | Max Scherzer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-265) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.199 | 0.592 | 0.273 | 19.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.642 | 0.284 | 26.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.742 | 0.339 | 8.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.177 | 0.513 | 0.232 | 33.3% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jarred Cosart – After a very impressive rookie campaign last season, Cosart has gotten off to a slow start here in 2014. He has a 5.52 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. I feel like he is about to turn the corner, but unfortunately I don’t think that it will happen tonight against the Tigers in Detroit. Cosart is the biggest underdog on the schedule and should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 2
Max Scherzer – Scherzer will likely be one of the most popular plays at pitcher tonight and for good reason. Scherzer has one of the highest K-rates in baseball and faces an Astros’ offense that strikes out as much as any team in baseball. That seems like a winning combination if I’ve ever heard one. Scherzer has a 2.08 ERA on the season and has been close to unhittable at home. He is a recommended play in all leagues tonight if you can afford him. Rating = 10
Batter Grind Down
Houston
As crazy as it sounds, I will not be recommending any Astros’ batters against Scherzer. Not only does he strike out a ton of batters, but he has been dominant at Comerica Park as he has a 0.86 WHIP there this season.
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – It was only a matter of time before Cabrera started hitting. He is riding a 10-game hitting streak in which he has 17 hits and 12 RBI’s. Cosart gave up a .332 wOBA to RH batters last season and Miggy should see plenty of RBI opportunities tonight.
Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler