MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 5th - Page 2
Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs
| Philadelphia | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Cliff Lee | Vegas Moneyline | Jeff Samardzija | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | PHI (-130) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.210 | 0.515 | 0.246 | 19.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.780 | 0.344 | 23.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.658 | 0.287 | 27.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.679 | 0.311 | 23.8% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP  | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Cliff Lee – Lee was the first pitcher since 1938 to give up at least 8 earned runs on opening day and still pick up a win. He did not get off to the fast start that he would have liked, but hey he picked up the W. Lee has a much better matchup today against the Cubs who have really struggled against LH pitching over the past two seasons. Not only that, but the wind is not blowing out in Wrigley. The total of this game is down to 6.5 runs and Lee is a small favorite (-130). He posted a K/9 of 9 last season. Rating = 9
- Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija threw a 7 inning shutout in his first start of the season and has a favorable matchup today against the Phillies. Samardzija posted a K/9 just over 9 last season and is facing a very old Phillies lineup that can be susceptible to striking out often. He’s better served as a tournament play, but I think he pitches well here. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
- Chase Utley – Utley had a big game yesterday in Wrigley and has a decent matchup against Samardjiza who gave up a .344 wOBA to LH batters last season. Utley’s swing looks great and he is primed for another big season.
- Additional Plays: Ben Revere
Chicago
- Cliff Lee is primed for a bounce back game after facing that tough Rangers lineup in Arlington. He will fare much better this time around. Last season Lee held RH batters to a .287 wOBA and he has always dominated LH batters.
- Additional Plays: None
Seattle at Oakland
| Seattle | Oakland | ||||||||
| Felix Hernandez | Vegas Moneyline | Dan Straily | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SEA (-127) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.668 | 0.297 | 25.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.707 | 0.316 | 17.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.604 | 0.270 | 27.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.221 | 0.595 | 0.279 | 21.5% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Felix Hernandez – Hernandez got off to a rocky start against the Angels, but quickly got it together and ended up striking out 11 batters over 6 innings of work while giving up 2 earned runs. I typically don’t love to target RH pitchers against this A’s lineup, but he dominated them last season. In 3 meetings, Felix posted a 1.31 ERA while striking 22 batters out over 21 innings of work. Rating = 8
- Dan Straily – Straily was supposed to start last night, but it got pushed back until today as last night’s game got rained out. I like his odds of picking up a win much better with Chris Young on the mound instead of Felix Hernandez. Last season Straily posted a 3.76 ERA at home with a K/9 of 7.6. The Mariners hit RH pitching well though and I don’t love his chances of picking up a win against the King. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
- Robinson Cano – Straily gave up a respectable .316 wOBA to LH batters last season, but Cano is not your average LH batter. Cano hit .329 against RH pitching with 20 of his 27 HR’s coming off of righties.
- Additional Plays: Brad Miller
Oakland
- Seeing as how Felix has dominated this lineup in the past, you don’t need to waste any of your roster spots on the A’s batters today.
- Additional Plays: None
San Francisco at LA Dodgers
| San Francisco | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
| Madison Bumgarner | Vegas Moneyline | Paul Maholm | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | SFG (-111) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.161 | 0.472 | 0.217 | 36.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.545 | 0.250 | 21.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.215 | 0.592 | 0.275 | 21.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.299 | 0.824 | 0.373 | 13.9% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs L | Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner certainly gets the nod if you are debating between the two pitchers in this game. Bumgarner is an ace that posted a 2.77 ERA and a K/9 of 9 last season. He is a high strike-out pitcher with a lot of upside. The Dodgers have some powerful batters in their lineup, but they were no problem for Bumgarner last season as he posted an ERA under 2.00 against them in 4 starts. Rating = 8
- Paul Maholm – Maholm is a new addition to this Dodgers rotation. Last season with Atlanta, he was the story of two pitchers. At home he posted a 2.37 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and on the road he posted a 5.91 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. A lot of pitchers pitch better at home where they are in a comfortable atmosphere and I think that’s the case with Maholm more than ballpark factors. This will be his first start with the Dodgers and I think his nerves may get the best of him. Plus, the Giants crush LH pitching (See: Ryu). Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
- Buster Posey – Busta, what it is right now. Maholm had major trouble with RH batters last season as he gave up a .373 wOBA to righties. Posey is one of the best hitters in baseball against LH pitching and makes a great play here.
- Additional Plays: Hunter Pence
Los Angeles
- I have Bumgarner right up there with the best of the pitching options today. Hanley Ramirez is cheap on a few sites and could be worth a look, but I’ll be avoiding the rest of the Dodgers bats.
- Additional Plays: None
St. Louis at Pittsburgh
| St. Louis | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Joe Kelly | Vegas Moneyline | Francisco Liriano | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-132) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.691 | 0.309 | 16.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.131 | 0.320 | 0.151 | 26.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.270 | 0.677 | 0.316 | 13.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.688 | 0.310 | 23.9% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Joe Kelly – Kelly posted a 2.69 ERA last season, but that doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. His WHIP of 1.36 and his .300+ wOBA given up to both LH and RH batters are both very pedestrian. Kelly managed to stay out of trouble last season, but I’m not sure he will be in for the same fate this season. Rating = 4
- Francisco Liriano – Liriano picked up right where he left off last season. He fanned 10 batters in his first start without giving up an earned run. On paper, this appears to be a tough matchup against the Cardinals as they hit LH pitching well, but in 3 starts against them last season he held them to a 0.75 ERA while striking out 20 batters in 24 innings of work. Liriano makes a great upside play tonight in all leagues. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
- Liriano has dominated this Cardinals lineup and PNC Park is a very pitcher friendly ballpark. I’ll be avoiding the Cardinals bats today.
- Additional Plays: Yadier Molina (GPP)
Pittsburgh
- Pedro Alvarez – Hopefully you took my advice on Pedro last night. Pedro hit two HR’s and even added a stolen base and a 3rd run. He was the highest scoring hitter last night and almost everyone avoided him just because he had a slow start. Alvarez is a beast against RH pitching (33 HR’s last season) and is dirt cheap across the industry.
- Andrew McCutchen – Even though this is a righty/righty matchup, Cutch hits RH pitching well and Kelly gave up a .316 wOBA to RH batters last season. Look for Cutch to get it going tonight.
- Additional Plays: Starling Marte
Atlanta at Washington
| Atlanta | Washington | ||||||||
| Julio Teheran | Vegas Moneyline | Stephen Strasburg | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-170) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.289 | 0.811 | 0.359 | 17.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.218 | 0.622 | 0.287 | 22.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.204 | 0.553 | 0.262 | 26.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.197 | 0.523 | 0.251 | 29.2% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Julio Teheran – Teheran was a popular play by the experts on opening day, but he disappointed with only 2 K’s and 2 earned runs over 6 innings. Teheran has a decent matchup tonight against the Nationals, but I have a hard time seeing him picking up a win with Strasburg on the mound opposite him. He’s better suited as a tournament play tonight. Rating = 6
- Stephen Strasburg – If you rostered Strasburg on opening day you were probably ready to quit daily fantasy baseball after his first few innings. He picked it up though and finished with 10 K’s over 6 innings of work. Strasburg’s biggest weakness is his inability to pitch on the road. Luckily, he is pitching at home tonight where he posted a 1.73 ERA and an instance 0.83 WHIP last season. He is my 2nd ranked pitcher today next to Jose Fernandez. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
- Just look up above and re-read Strasburg’s stats at home last season.
- Additional Plays: None
Washington
- Bryce Harper – Harper’s price has come down across the industry thanks to his slow start. He has had some great success in a limited sample size against Teheran and I think he finally gets it going tonight. Great speed and great power.
- Additional Plays: Ryan Zimmerman