MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 30th - Page Three
LA Angels at Houston – 8:10 PM EST
| LA Angels | Houston | ||||||||
 | Matt Shoemaker |  | Scott Kazmir | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-155) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.734 | 0.32 | 0.197 | SP vs. Left | 0.25 | 0.645 | 0.289 | 0.194 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.24 | 0.677 | 0.295 | 0.242 | SP vs. Right | 0.216 | 0.615 | 0.275 | 0.223 |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs L | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Matt Shoemaker : FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 233.0 — SIERA: 3.43 — ERA: 3.67 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 5.0% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.1 — SIERA: 4.13 — ERA: 2.59 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 7.8% — HR/9: 0.7
Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 24.8% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% (Rank: 3)
Pitchers per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: It’s been hard to trust Shoemaker this season. He has been inconsistent from start to start and his strikeout rate is down. He draws an interesting matchup against the Astros, who have the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Astros also lead the league in home runs though, so this start will likely be that of the boom or bust variety. His appeal is limited to tournaments tonight.
Pitcher Rating:54.4
Scott Kazmir : FD: $9,400 — DK: $9,300
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 307.0 — SIERA: 3.63 — ERA: 3.05 — K%: 21.6% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.1 — SIERA: 3.38 — ERA: 1.08 — K%: 20.8% — BB%: 3.3% — HR/9: 0.0
LA Angels of Anaheim Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 14)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Kazmir pitched well in his first start with the Astros, striking out five batters over seven scoreless innings of work against the Royals. He draws a better matchup in his second start, but his appeal hinges on whether or not Mike Trout is in the lineup. He’s one of the few players in baseball that can single handedly ruin a pitcher’s outing on any given night. Check the Angels’ lineup and target Kazmir as an SP2 if Trout is forced to miss another game.
Pitcher Rating:71.7
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
The Angels draw a difficult matchup against Scott Kazmir, who has held left and right-handed hitters in check. Mike Trout (if he’s in the lineup) and Albert Pujols are the only fantasy options of note here. They should only be used in tournaments.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Albert Pujols : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 256 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 103
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.250 — wRC+: 147
Houston
The Astros draw a decent matchup tonight against Matt Shoemaker. They hit right-handed pitching well as a team and they are always in play at home in the home run-friendly Minute Maid Park. The left-handed hitters have the edge in this matchup, as Shoemaker has allowed a .320 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate.
Elite Plays:
Preston Tucker : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 158 — wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.285 — wRC+: 164
Last 14 Days: PA: 32 — wOBA: 0.445 — ISO: 0.452 — wRC+: 192
Secondary Plays:
Luis Valbuena : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 688 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.218 — wRC+: 119
Last 14 Days: PA: 27 — wOBA: 0.197 — ISO: 0.040 — wRC+: 18
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Jake Arrieta |  | Jimmy Nelson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-136) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.192 | 0.558 | 0.252 | 0.295 | SP vs. Left | 0.287 | 0.84 | 0.364 | 0.165 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.216 | 0.569 | 0.252 | 0.25 | SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.66 | 0.295 | 0.216 |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Arrieta : FD: $10,400 — DK: $12,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 291.1 — SIERA: 2.81 — ERA: 2.56 — K%: 27.0% — BB%: 6.3% — HR/9: 0.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 43.2 — SIERA: 2.60 — ERA: 1.65 — K%: 27.6% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 0.2
Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 18)
Pitchers per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 27)
Analysis: Arrieta has been dominant over the last month of play, posting a 2.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.6%. Unfortunately, he is finally starting to be priced at the level that he should be. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Brewers, who are ranked right below the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The only issue that I have here is the price. There is no reason to pay that much for him, when it only costs a little more for Chris Sale.
Pitcher Rating:93.2
Jimmy Nelson : FD: $7,400 — DK: $7,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 191.2 — SIERA: 3.86 — ERA: 4.32 — K%: 19.3% — BB%: 7.6% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.0 — SIERA: 3.73 — ERA: 2.90 — K%: 20.3% — BB%: 8.3% — HR/9: 0.6
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 24.4% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.279 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 24.7% (Rank: 27)
Pitchers per PA: 3.99 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Nelson is always in play when he is pitching at home. He has a lower SIERA and walk rate when pitching at home. His strikeout rate is also 4% higher at home than it is on the road. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Cubs, who are ranked 25th in team wOBA and 29th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Nelson is a terrific tournament play tonight and he makes sense as a cheap SP2 as well.
Pitcher Rating:63.6
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Even though the Cubs don’t hit right-handed pitching well as a team, that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid them completely. Jimmy Nelson has struggled with left-handed hitters in his career and the Cubs have some talented lefties in their lineup. I like Nelson as a tournament play, but I also like a few Cubs’ hitters facing him.
Elite Plays:
Anthony Rizzo : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 759 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.252 — wRC+: 147
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.202 — ISO: 0.022 — wRC+: 20
Secondary Plays:
Kyle Schwarber : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 41 — wOBA: 0.516 — ISO: 0.342 — wRC+: 236
Last 14 Days: PA: 38 — wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.250 — wRC+: 189
Dexter Fowler : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 702 — wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.128 — wRC+: 99
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.430 — ISO: 0.128 — wRC+: 177
Milwaukee
The Brewers can be avoided in all league formats tonight. They have to face Jake Arrieta, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .255 wOBA over the last two seasons. Hits and runs will be tough to come by tonight.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
NONE
Cleveland at Oakland – 10:05 PM EST
| Cleveland | Oakland | ||||||||
 | Carlos Carrasco |  | Chris Bassitt | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-135) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.601 | 0.268 | 0.267 | SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.665 | 0.306 | 0.156 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.651 | 0.285 | 0.272 | SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.69 | 0.307 | 0.145 |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Carlos Carrasco : FD: $9,200 — DK: $10,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 252.1 — SIERA: 2.66 — ERA: 3.35 — K%: 27.0% — BB%: 5.4% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.2 — SIERA: 2.35 — ERA: 4.55 — K%: 30.5% — BB%: 5.9% — HR/9: 0.9
Oakland Athletics Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.279 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 14.8% (Rank: 1)
Pitchers per PA: 3.87 (Rank: 7)
Analysis: Carrasco may have a 4.55 ERA over the last month, but his indicators tell another story. During that same stretch, he has a 2.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.5%. The problem tonight is his matchup. Carrasco relies on strikeouts for a large portion of his outs and the A’s have the third-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. He is a bit overpriced for his matchup.
Pitcher Rating:81.0
Chris Bassitt : FD: $5,500 — DK: $4,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 63.1 — SIERA: 4.66 — ERA: 3.41 — K%: 15.2% — BB%: 8.7% — HR/9: 0.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.0 — SIERA: 4.30 — ERA: 2.74 — K%: 14.3% — BB%: 2.2% — HR/9: 0.4
Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 16)
Pitchers per PA: 3.92 (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Bassitt has mediocre numbers over the last two seasons with a 4.66 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 15.2%. There is very little upside here, especially against the Indians, who have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Nothing to see here, moving on!
Pitcher Rating:42.1
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
The Indians finally had a breakout performance offensively. They had a field day against Jeremy Guthrie and the Royals. They will look to carry some of that success over into tonight’s game. Chris Bassitt is still unproven at the major league level. The left-handed hitters in this lineup are in play here.
Elite Plays:
Michael Brantley : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 666 — wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 155
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.466 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 209
Secondary Plays:
Jason Kipnis : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 644 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 137
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 156
Francisco Lindor : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.283 — ISO: 0.103 — wRC+: 81
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.170 — wRC+: 141
Oakland
The A’s draw a tough matchup tonight against Carlos Carrasco, who has held left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA over the last two seasons. They can be avoided in all league formats.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
NONE