MLB Grind Down: Thursday, October 8th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Texas at Toronto – Thursday, 3:37 PM EST
| Texas | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Yovani Gallardo |  | David Price | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-230) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.705 | 0.312 | 16.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.657 | 0.289 | 22.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.720 | 0.318 | 16.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.628 | 0.275 | 27.50% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Yovani Gallardo : FD: $8,200 — DK: $7,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 376.2 — SIERA: 4.18 — ERA: 3.46 — K%: 16.6% — BB%: 7.6% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.2 — SIERA: 4.25 — ERA: 4.38 — K%: 17.9% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 1.1
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.367 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Gallardo will take the mound for Game 1 of the Rangers’ series against the Blue Jays. While the Rangers have been a great story this season, it’s hard to imagine them taking down the Blue Jays with their current starting rotation. Gallardo has been a mediocre pitcher over the last two seasons, posting a 4.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.6%. He is the largest underdog in this two-game slate and consequently, he has the lowest pitcher rating. He draws an incredibly tough matchup against the Blue Jays, who are ranked first in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Gallardo also has to face them in the Rogers Centre, which is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball. Even though he is cheap, he is not a recommended fantasy option.
Pitcher Rating: 46.9
David Price : FD: $12,300 — DK: $11,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 468.2 — SIERA: 2.98 — ERA: 2.88 — K%: 26.2% — BB%: 4.5% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.0 — SIERA: 3.06 — ERA: 2.32 — K%: 29.6% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 0.3
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 18)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.350 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% (Rank: 4)
Pitches per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 14)
Analysis: Price comes into today’s start in terrific form. Over the last month of play, he has a 3.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.6%. He throws as many strikes as just about any starter in baseball, which helps keep his pitch count down and his strikeout rate up. The question here is whether he will be able to quiet this Rangers’ offense that went on a tear at the end of the season. Over the last two weeks of play, Texas was ranked third in team wOBA and fourth in strikeout rate. While Price may not provide the salary cap savings that Yordano Ventura does, he has a better chance to pick up the win, as he is currently listed as a -230 favorite over the Rangers.
Pitcher Rating: 90.6
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Even though the Rangers are the largest underdogs in this two-game slate, that doesn’t mean that they have the lowest team total. Their total is higher than both the Cubs and the Pirates. While their matchup against David Price is far from ideal, they do get to face him in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Since the start of the 2014 season, Price has given up fairly equal splits, allowing a .289 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .275 wOBA to right-handed hitters. There aren’t any elite fantasy options in this matchup, but Adrian Beltre, Delino Deshields, Elvis Andrus, and Mike Napoli are all secondary plays at their respective positions.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Adrian Beltre : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 370 — wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.219 — wRC+: 157
Last 30 Days: PA: 130 — wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.226 — wRC+: 170
Delino Deshields : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 168 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.123 — wRC+: 106
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.080 — wRC+: 81
Elvis Andrus : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,200
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 413 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.109 — wRC+: 105
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.123 — wRC+: 75
Mike Napoli : FD: $2,400 — DK: $2,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 316 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.240 — wRC+: 160
Last 30 Days: PA: 60 — wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 148
Toronto
The Blue Jays have the highest team total — 4.75 runs — of any team in this slate. They have the best matchup and they are playing at home in the hitter-friendly confines of the Rogers Centre. Now that we are in the playoffs, runs are going to be hard to come by, so when we see an offense that is expected to succeed in a matchup, we need to have as much exposure to it as possible. Yovani Gallardo has not been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate, allowing a .312 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .318 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 928 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.288 — wRC+: 151
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.337 — wRC+: 189
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,400 — DK: $5,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1061 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.266 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.359 — wRC+: 191
Ben Revere : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 897 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.066 — wRC+: 93
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 111
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1080 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 131
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 138
Troy Tulowitzki : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 694 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 35 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 88
Russell Martin : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 753 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 74 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.344 — wRC+: 132
Houston at Kansas City – Thursday, 7:37 PM EST
| Houston | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Collin McHugh |  | Yordano Ventura | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KC (-135) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.630 | 0.279 | 21.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.683 | 0.302 | 21.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.685 | 0.301 | 23.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.682 | 0.306 | 21.00% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Collin McHugh : FD: $9,000 — DK: $9,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 351.1 — SIERA: 3.59 — ERA: 3.43 — K%: 22.2% — BB%: 6.4% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.1 — SIERA: 3.78 — ERA: 4.31 — K%: 22.0% — BB%: 6.8% — HR/9: 0.9
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 30)
Analysis: With Dallas Keuchel pitching in the Wildcard game, the Astros will have to turn to McHugh in Game 1 of the American League Division Series against the Royals. McHugh has been in better form during the second half of the season, but a 3.78 SIERA over the last month of play isn’t anything to write home about. He draws a difficult matchup against the Royals, who are ranked eighth in team wOBA and first in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. If you are debating between the two cheap pitchers — Yovani Gallardo and McHugh — I’d have to give the edge to McHugh. However, if you can construct a lineup with one of the top pitching options, that is the preferred route to take. With offenses scoring so few runs in the playoffs, it makes sense to pay up at the pitcher position.
Pitcher Rating: 71.2
Yordano Ventura : FD: $8,800 — DK: $8,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 339.1 — SIERA: 3.82 — ERA: 3.66 — K%: 21.0% — BB%: 8.6% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.0 — SIERA: 3.18 — ERA: 3.50 — K%: 23.6% — BB%: 8.1% — HR/9: 0.5
Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.375 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 8)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Ventura is an intriguing play in this two-game slate and given the fact that he is priced under $9,000, he will likely be one of the most popular picks. He started to round into form at just the right time, posting a 3.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.6% over the last month of play. If you remember from last postseason, he was terrific in his four starts. He draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Astros, who had the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Astros are a team that hits home runs, but that will be tough to rely on in a huge ballpark like Kaufmann Stadium. Ventura is in play on single-pitcher sites and given the salaries, he is close to a must-start on multi-pitcher sites (in cash games, anyway).
Pitcher Rating: 76.2
Batter Grind Down
Houston
The Astros showed up in a big way against the Yankees, shutting them out 3-0 in Yankee Stadium. They will look to continue their postseason run against last season’s playoff darlings, the Royals. The Astros draw a decent matchup against Yordano Ventura, who has allowed a .302 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .306 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. On full slates, I generally don’t recommend taking hitters against your starting pitcher, but when we are looking at a two-game slate, I don’t mind targeting one or two bats against my pitcher. Colby Rasmus and Luis Valbuena are both borderline elite plays, as they both have a .424+ wOBA over the last two weeks of play.
Elite Plays:
Colby Rasmus : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 613 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 102
Last 30 Days: PA: 85 — wOBA: 0.424 — ISO: 0.324 — wRC+: 173
Luis Valbuena : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 806 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 121
Last 30 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.457 — ISO: 0.289 — wRC+: 196
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Correa : FD: $4,000 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 280 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 124
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 136
George Springer : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 526 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 123 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 135
Carlos Gomez : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 872 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 35 — wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.323 — wRC+: 181
Jose Altuve : FD: $3,400 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1012 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.113 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.291 — wRC+: 146
Kansas City
The Royals have the second-highest team total in this two-game slate and even though their offense may not be flashy — singles and doubles, baby — they are the best source of value. Four of their top six batters in their lineup are priced under $3,300 on FanDuel, which allows you to get quality bats in your lineup as well as save some salary cap space for your pitcher. Their matchup against Collin McHugh may not look appealing on paper, but again, we are in the playoffs and there are very few attractive matchups for offenses. Even though McHugh has reverse splits, I will be heavily targeting the left-handed bats of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Alex Gordon.
Elite Plays:
Eric Hosmer : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 782 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 124
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 101
Mike Moustakas : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 769 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 149
Alex Gordon : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 723 — wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.155 — wRC+: 120
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.110 — wRC+: 86
Secondary Plays:
Kendrys Morales : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 629 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 96 — wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.272 — wRC+: 159
Lorenzo Cain : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 759 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 92
Ben Zobrist : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 835 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 80