MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-05-21 20:36:34

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Detroit at Cleveland

Detroit					Cleveland
Max Scherzer		Vegas Moneyline			Zach McAllister		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-140)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.217	0.633	0.281	26.1%	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.753	0.335	17.7%
SP vs. Right	0.173	0.510	0.232	33.6%	SP vs. Right	0.262	0.710	0.318	18.9%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Scherzer – The series now shifts to Cleveland and Scherzer will take the mound for the Tigers in a very early day game that starts at 12:05 ET. Those of you on the West Coast better set your alarms for this one. Scherzer has really pitched well this season with a 1.93 ERA and a K/9 of 11.1. He is facing an Indians’ offense that is ranked 5th against RH pitching with a team .336 wOBA. Even though the matchup isn’t great, Scherzer has to be considered one of the top pitching options in the early slate. Rating = 8

Zach McAllister – McAllister has a 5.36 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 8.1. He has pitched much better at home than he has on the road, but a matchup against the Tigers is not a favorable one. The Tigers are ranked 7th against RH pitching this season with a team .329 wOBA. McAllister will also have trouble getting run support with Scherzer pitching for the Tigers. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Victor Martinez – McAllister has given up a .335 wOBA LH batters since the start of 2013. Martinez has been better against southpaws this season, but is still batting .291 against RHP’s with an OPS of .876. Take advantage of the sites that have him listed as a catcher.

Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler

Cleveland

Since the start of last season Scherzer has held LHB’s and RHB’s to under a .285 wOBA. Michael Brantley and David Murphy both have decent numbers against Scherzer, but neither is a preferred play today.

Seattle at Texas

Seattle					Texas
Chris Young		Vegas Moneyline			Nick Tepesch		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TEX (-127)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.208	0.643	0.284	11.6%	SP vs. Left	0.295	0.816	0.368	17.8%
SP vs. Right	0.213	0.712	0.312	7.1%	SP vs. Right	0.225	0.603	0.278	21.9%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Young – Young has a 3.22 ERA on the season, but only has 18 K’s over 44 innings of work. That’s just not going to cut it in daily fantasy baseball. He is also coming off of a rough outing against the Twins in which he gave up 5 earned runs over 7 innings. He should be avoided today against the Rangers in the hitter friendly Globe Life Park. Rating = 2

Nick Tepesch – Tepesch pitched well in his first start of the season with 8 K’s over 5 innings of work. However, last season he posted a 4.84 ERA and he draws an extremely tough matchup against the Mariners whose lineup is full of LHB’s. With Tepesch giving up a career .368 wOBA to LHB’s, he can be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Kyle Seager – Seager has played well in Arlington in his career. Last season he hit for a .500 average and an OPS of 1.53 in 36 at-bats. He got off to a fast start to this series last night with 3 hits and a couple RBI’s. Seager has great power against RHP and should be batting in the middle of the order.

Additional Plays: Robinson Cano, Dustin Ackley, Michael Saunders, James Jones

Texas

Shin-Soo Choo – Choo has some interesting splits this season. He has better numbers against LHP than he does against RHP and he has been much better on the road than he has been at home. That said, it’s going to be hard to pass on him today against the RHP Young who does not strike out many batters.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder

NY Yankees at Chicago Cubs

NY Yankees					Chicago Cubs
Chase Whitley		Vegas Moneyline			Jeff Samardzija		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CHC (-110)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.100	0.267	0.143	16.7%	SP vs. Left	0.260	0.760	0.338	23.1%
SP vs. Right	0.200	0.533	0.263	33.3%	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.637	0.293	22.6%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chase Whitley – Whitley pitched well in his major league debut, but he was on a short leash and was pulled before completing 5 innings. He only threw 74 pitches in his debut which really could hurt his value moving forward. I expect that number to go up today, but taking a wait and see approach never hurts. Rating = 5

Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija’s strikeouts have been down a little this season, but he has pitched extremely well with an ERA of 1.62 and a WHIP of 1.15. He is facing a Yankees’ offense that is ranked 11th against RH pitching, but they are missing Carlos Beltran who is one of their best hitters. Samardzija is in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

N.Y. Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Since the start of 2013, Samardzija has given up a .338 wOBA to LHB’s. Ellsbury has been in a slump recently, but his price across the industry has come down and this could be a nice time to buy low on the talented outfielder.

Additional Plays: Brian McCann, Brett Gardner

Chicago

Anthony Rizzo – This is Whitley’s second career start and we don’t have a ton of information to go on here. Rizzo has great power against RH pitching and he has been red hot at home with a .347 batting average and 5 XBH’s.

Additional Plays: Starlin Castro, Nate Schierholtz

Cincinnati at Washington

Cincinnati					Washington
Alfredo Simon		Vegas Moneyline			Tanner Roark		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-137)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.217	0.700	0.318	15.3%	SP vs. Left	0.250	0.695	0.313	16.6%
SP vs. Right	0.210	0.530	0.254	17.5%	SP vs. Right	0.183	0.419	0.196	22.8%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Alfredo Simon – After coming out of the bullpen in each of the last 2 seasons, Simon is having a career year as a starter. Through 8 starts he has posted a 2.45 ERA with a K/9 of 5.3. While he has certainly pitched well, I have a hard time taking him against this Nationals team that put up 8 runs on Johnny Cueto last night. He’s an average fantasy option today. Rating = 4

Tanner Roark – Roark was well on his way to another fantastic start against the Mets until he found some trouble in the 5th and ended up being pulled after that. Roark has a 3.65 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 7.3. He has a nice matchup against the Reds who will likely be without their best two hitters once again. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Billy Hamilton – Hamilton’s speed can turn a routine ground ball into a single. Then once he gets on first, he immediately becomes a threat to steal 2nd. Hamilton is batting .286 against RH pitching and has a decent matchup against the RHP Roark.

Additional Plays: Todd Frazier

Washington

Jayson Werth – Werth is much better against LH pitching, but he’s been hitting RH pitching well lately and has 9 hits over his last 8 games. His price is very affordable on both FD and DS and I think he makes a solid play against Simon.

Additional Plays: Ian Desmond

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Baltimore					Pittsburgh
Chris Tillman		Vegas Moneyline			Wandy Rodriguez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PIT (-110)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.734	0.326	19.2%	SP vs. Left	0.257	0.757	0.349	8.6%
SP vs. Right	0.224	0.681	0.301	22.0%	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.780	0.342	20.3%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chirs Tillman – After giving up 3+ earned runs in 5 straight starts, Tillman threw a gem against the Royals in his last outing. Tonight he faces a Pirates’ offense that is ranked 16th against RH pitching with a team .309 wOBA. Tillman is not one of the top pitching options on the board, but he has a decent K-rate and could make a decent tournament play. Rating = 5

Wandy Rodriguez – Rodriguez will be making his 2nd start since coming back from injury. He has a 6.40 ERA on the season with 20 K’s over 25 innings of work. Rodriguez only threw 73 pitches in his last start and I’m concerned that he could be on a pitch count again tonight. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Adam Jones – Jones is quietly having a terrific season, especially against LH pitching. He is batting .457 with an OPS of 1.38. With Rodriguez looking a little rusty, Jones could be a terrific under the radar play in the OF.

Additional Plays: Chris Davis (after his 3 HR’s last night)

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – Cutch is very good at home and he has been very good against RH pitching. He gets both tonight against Tillman who had really been struggling up until his most recent start.

Additional Plays:

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2