MLB Odds & Predictions - Friday, May 7th
Take the mound with Sloan Piva as he breaks down MLB odds and predictions for Friday, May 7, with lines from the top online sportsbooks. For more baseball betting picks, visit ScoresAndOdds!
I love a lot of things in life. My wife Chrissy, my daughter Ellie, my sister Sadie, and my Mom lead the pack. Writing has always been up there, of course. Then there’s food, beer, music, and movies. These are a few of my favorite things. If I had to round out the top 10, the last on the list would probably be ‘winning.’
Not to get all Charlie Sheen on you, but who doesn’t love winning? Whether it’s Scrabble, Pub Trivia, or Poker Night in the basement, it’s always more fun when you win. My $40 per year Dynasty League is the cheapest buy-in of the three fantasy basketball leagues I play in, and it’s my favorite because I have had more success in that league than any other (I’m currently up 5-4 in the home stretch of the Finals… fingers crossed!). I would absolutely love seeing the gold trophy next to my team’s name, 100 times more than I would enjoy winning the small prize pool.
My recreational volleyball team has shown a lot of promise this season. It’s great to spend time with friends, and get some good exercise in after a full year couped up in our houses. But it’s the greatest feeling when we dominate our opponents with a torrid display of demonstrative spikes. Who needs a cash prize when you can regularly crush the souls of your opponents?
It’s funny, because many of my friends and acquaintances have asked me if I win lots of money since I work as a betting analyst. The answer is no, I don’t really gamble that much, and certainly never bet what I can’t afford to lose. But I get so much satisfaction in making the right calls in my columns—and helping my readers win money on the regular—that I never have to worry about FOMO.
After Tuesday, my MLB Bets of the Day record now stands at 23-9 since Opening Day. I missed on my first over/under pick of the season, Rangers-Twins under 8 (final score 6-3 Texas). But I did pick the Rangers in that one, and I also picked the Yankees over Houston and the A’s over Toronto. My Moneyline Parlay of the Day also hit, but Jacob deGrom somehow failed to win me the Spread of the Day (good old Mets). But I’ll take another $500 parlay win, a 3-1 mark on Bets of the Day, and a whopping 14 games over .500 on the season.
What other way is there to celebrate but to win some more? Let’s take the weekend by storm with more sweet, sweet victory.
All MLB odds for this article are from BetMGM and PointsBet. All stats via MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
MLB Odds & Picks
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets
Pitching Matchup: Zac Gallen vs. David Peterson
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +115
As many of you know, I’m a big Zac Gallen fan (does that make me a Gal-pal?). Oddsmakers, meanwhile, don’t seem to be onboard. Maybe it’s because Gallen is coming off the worst game of his early season (L, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB in 4 IP vs. Colorado). Or maybe it’s because he’s winless in two career games against the Mets, with a 4.09 ERA and 1.455 WHIP.
Whatever the case, if sportsbooks want to list Zac Gallen as an underdog, sign me up. I don’t care that the Diamondbacks just got swept by Miami in the first half of their six-game East-coast trip. That’s not Gallen’s fault—he didn’t pitch in that series. And I don’t mind the 25-year-old’s hiccup against Colorado. Gallen started 12 games last season, and 15 games in his 2019 rookie season. Do you know how many of those 27 games he finished with four or more earned runs? Two.
While taking batting practice during Spring Training, Gallen sustained a hairline stress fracture in his forearm. That delayed the beginning of his 2021 regular season by a couple weeks. Educated guessing leads me to believe two things: (1) he started rusty, and (2) we haven’t seen anything close to his best stuff yet. He’s striking out a career-high 11.8 batters per nine innings, but he’s also issuing a career-high 4.4 walks per nine.
Book it: this is a get-right game for Gallen. Despite some headline acquisitions over the offseason (highlighted by Francisco Lindor), the Mets offense has underwhelmed this season. They have scored four or fewer runs in exactly half of their 28 games, and they have a team slugging percentage of .357 (fourth worst in the MLB).
David Peterson had an abysmal first start of the season in Philly (6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB in 4 IP), but the second-year Mets pitcher has looked pretty solid ever since. His 29 percent strikeout rate ranks in the 75th percentile of the majors. However, he relies on his slider and sinker way too frequently. He throws his slider 26.3 percent of the time, and his sinker 41.5 percent of the time.
Those rates are fine against an undisciplined offensive opponent. But the Diamondbacks are not a free-swinging club. They have just a 24.5 percent chase rate—fifth lowest in the MLB—and they rank sixth in the majors with 111 walks. Arizona also ranks sixth with 40 homers on the year, easily one of the more surprising power teams of the young season.
Gallen is the future of the Diamondbacks organization, and his offense treats him well. Arizona has scored more runs in the four games Gallen has started this season (21) than New York has scored in the five games Peterson has started (20). Take the better overall pitcher and better overall offense here. Underdog, my butt.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon vs. Brad Keller
MLB Pick: White Sox -160
Raise your hand if you had Carlos Rodon EVER leading the pack for the 2021 AL Cy Young race. Now whoever has their hand up, drop and give me twenty pushups for being a dirty rotten liar. Nobody—not even Carlos Rodon himself—saw this early run of dominance coming for the seven-year vet. But man, is it fun to watch.
Coming off two major surgeries in the past three years, Rodon has been otherworldly. His 0.72 ERA is the lowest of any AL starter with at least four starts, and second in the MLB to the inhuman Jacob deGrom (0.51). Rodon is 4-0 with an 0.640 WHIP, and batters are hitting .085 against him. He has 36 strikeouts to just nine walks, and he has earned just two runs (one homer) on seven hits in 25 innings.
It’s not even fair to pit the hottest pitcher in the AL against Brad Keller, who might be enduring the worst stretch of his four-year professional career. Keller keeps getting himself into jams that he cannot dig himself out of, as evidenced by his 2-3 record as well as his career-worst 8.06 ERA and 2.149 WHIP. His hard-hit rate (42.5%), fly ball percentage (24.1%), and BAbip (.386) are all sky-high. He is yielding slash lines of .360/.432/.590, and an opponent OPS of 1.022.
If you’re a fan of sure bets, this one’s for you. The White Sox may be without a couple young stars on offense in the injured Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, but they have plenty of pop left to help Rodon to his league-leading fifth win. I play it safe more often than not, so I’ll shy away from the -1.5 spread at +100. But if that line moved closer to +130, I’d probably bite.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
Pitching Matchup: Julio Urias vs. Griffin Canning
MLB Pick: Dodgers -165
The reigning-champion Dodgers have had a tumultuous start to the season. They got bashed around by the scorching-hot division-rival Padres, and then spiraled into a stretch where they lost 10 out of 13 games. Not surprisingly, a familiar hero helped save LA from further turmoil: none other than Julio Urias, who has seamlessly converted himself from World Series closer to the best No. 4 pitcher in baseball.
Urias, still just 24 years old, has been incredible. He’s 4-0, and he has a 2.87 ERA, a 2.82 FIP, and an 0.903 WHIP. He limits hard contact, maintains a 44.3 percent ground ball rate, and strikes out 10 batters per nine innings. The bespectacled lefty is, once again, the unsung hero of this Dodgers squad.
Now, don’t get me wrong—the defending champs have plenty of heroes on the offensive side of the ball, as well. They may be 17-15 and in third place in the NL West, but that’s not in any way due to Urias (4-0) or the Dodgers lineup (157 runs on the season, second-most in the MLB).
Both these Los Angeles squads have mashed nine homers in the past week (the Dodgers in six games, the Angels in seven). I’ll take the pitcher who surrenders fewer longballs. Urias has given up just four dingers in 37.2 innings this season. His opponent, Griffin Canning, has given up six dingers in just 20.1 frames. That’s a difference of 1.7 homers per nine innings.
The Dodgers are due for a hot streak, and they’ll be playing their hometown foes with somewhat of a chip on their shoulders. Something tells me the elder statesmen of the San Francisco Giants won’t remain atop the division for very much longer.
MLB Predictions — Friday
Moneyline Parlay of the Day
Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) at New York Mets (Zac Gallen vs. David Peterson) – Oddsmakers often put too much stock in the home team. In my opinion, Gallen is the better pitcher than Peterson, and the D-backs have been playing better than the Mets offensively.
Chicago White Sox (-160) at Kansas City Royals (Carlos Rodon vs. Brad Keller) – Carlos Rodon is not just having a career resurgence—he’s having one of the better starts to a season by an AL pitcher in recent memory. I won’t pick against him until he gives me a reason.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) at Los Angeles Angels (Julio Urias vs. Griffin Canning) – Round One of the Battle of Los Angeles goes to the defending champions. Urias has been phenomenal, and Canning has been mediocre at best. The Dodgers will figure out their bullpen woes at some point, right?
St. Louis Cardinals (-216) vs. Colorado Rockies (Jack Flaherty vs. Austin Gomber) – The -216 seems appropriate. St. Louis at home with its ace on the mound feels too good to pass up in the parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: +723
Bet: $100 |To Win: $723 |Total Payout: $823
Spread Parlay of the Day
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-186) at New York Mets (Zac Gallen vs. David Peterson) – Naturally, I’m taking the same underdog I took in the moneyline parlay. Those unsure of Gallen’s ability to win in Queens, look no further. The spread gives Gallen an automatic one-run cushion, which he probably won’t even need.
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-140) at Atlanta Braves (Zach Eflin vs. Charlie Morton) – Good lord, I am taking a lot of road underdogs today. I know Atlanta has been swinging hot bats as of late, but Philadelphia can rake as well. And Eflin has flat-out been better than Morton so far.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105) at Los Angeles Angels (Julio Urias vs. Griffin Canning) – I’m not trying to beat a dead horse, but the Dodgers with the underrated Urias represent a ton of value today. Toss ‘em in your parlays in whatever capacity you prefer.
Total Parlay Odds: +392
Bet: $100 |To Win: $413 |Total Payout: $513
MLB at Online Sportsbooks
Image Credit: Imagn