MLB Picks & Predictions: Get Ready For Today's Huge 16-Game Slate
To be a good sports betting analyst, you have to keep your composure for the full 162-game regular-season schedule. You can’t let one bad day two weeks into the season get you down, with six months of baseball left on the 2021 calendar.
That’s why I didn’t hang my head after I went 0-for-3 with my Tuesday MLB Picks and Predictions last week. Three days later, I went 2-for-3—nailing both Friday Night MLB picks, and crushing my baseball parlays as well. My season-long MLB Bets record now stands at 9-6, and we’re ready to take some positive momentum into a full Tuesday slate.
With a whopping 16 games scheduled, I’m even going to add an unprecedented Bonus Bet of the Day. That will give you four games to choose from to bet individually, as well as my usual Spread and Moneyline Parlays of the Day.
The marathon of the MLB regular season continues—let’s get this money!
All MLB odds for this article are from BetMGM and PointsBet. All stats via MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
MLB Picks & Predictions — Tuesday, April 20
Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners
Pitching Matchup: Julio Urias vs. Marco Gonzales
MLB Pick: Dodgers -200 ML (BetMGM, PointsBet) or -1.5 Spread (-125, PointsBet)
I usually shy away from betting the reigning champions when they’re listed as heavy favorites, but I like the Dodgers a lot in Seattle Tuesday afternoon. Urias takes the mound with a 2-0 record, as well as a 3.86 ERA and 1.179 WHIP. He also has a crisp 15/3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Of course, Urias benefits from having a defending-champion offense that hasn’t skipped a beat since October. Entering Monday night, LA ranked in the top-three in the majors in hits (144), RBI (84), runs (90), walks (74), doubles (33), and triples (four). The Dodgers rank fourth in homers (22), fifth in average (.259), first in OBP (.352), and third in both slugging (.451) and OPS (.818). That’s a long-winded (and extremely nerdy) way of saying that Dave Roberts’ squad is once again extremely dangerous across the board.
Seattle has been hot lately, winning eight of its past 10 games, and the Mariners eked out Game 1 of this series Monday night. But Marco Gonzales has had very little to do with the M’s early-season success. The veteran southpaw has already given up an MLB-leading six home runs (and AL-leading 14 ER) in just 15.1 innings, and he has allowed 27 of the 72 batters he has faced to reach base. Gonzales did get the win against lowly Baltimore last week, but these Dodgers make the Orioles look like a Double-A squad.
Adding insult to injury, Gonzales tends to struggle early in the season, and he has never pitched well during the day. His career ERA in the months of March and April is 4.45, and his lifetime ERA in day games is 4.73 (with a 1.395 WHIP). In 39 career daytime appearances, he has yielded a slash rate of .281/.331/.440.
I’m taking the Dodgers to rebound in Game 2 Tuesday afternoon, and I think Marco gets battered and bruised by the end of inning two. I’m sticking with LA’s -200 moneyline, but I wouldn’t blame you for seeking out extra value via the -1.5 spread (-125) on PointsBet.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon vs. Zach Plesac
MLB Pick: White Sox -115 (BetMGM)
I was all-aboard the Carlos Rodon Hype Train after his strong Spring Training, and I grabbed him in as many fantasy leagues as I could. How can you not root for a guy who has battled back from multiple major surgeries in a matter of a couple years? Anyone who knows the White Sox veteran never doubted that the competitive fire within him would help stage a career resurgence. But nobody—and I mean nobody—could have predicted Rodon would throw a no-hitter in his second start of the doggone season, and just his 11th game since 2018.
He was lights-out last Wednesday, and he honestly should have finished with a perfect game. Indians catcher Roberto Perez wasn’t exactly anxious to move out of the way of an errant slider in the ninth inning, ultimately taking it in the toe with Rodon just two outs shy of perfection.
Now the 28-year-old southpaw gets another crack at the Tribe, and while it will be impossible to one-up his performance from six days ago, I still like him to get the win. Plain and simple, he’s just moving in the opposite direction of his counterpart Plesac, who struggled mightily in the same game Rodon got the no-no. The young righty was charged with six runs on seven hits in just 0.2 innings, the shortest outing of his career.
The White Sox may be without Eloy Jimenez for the next six months, but they have shown plenty of life without their young-slugging outfielder. They rank fifth in the majors in runs (81), sixth in RBI (73), fourth in walks (66), and sixth in steals (11). Their team OPS is .710, sixth-best in the nation. They are a complete team, and still plenty capable of winning the AL Central if their rotation can check the right boxes. It’s safe to say we can jot Rodon’s checkmarks down in Jumbo Sharpie. ChiSox over Tribe, 5-4.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds
Pitching Matchup: Zac Gallen vs. Luis Castillo
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +115
Since I’m picking four games today, I have to select at least one underdog. It’s tough to go against the red-hot Reds, but I trust Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen in his second start since returning from a batting practice-induced forearm fracture (insert quip about universal DH here).
Gallen looked dynamite in his debut against the Athletics last Tuesday, striking out eight of the 18 batters he faced in just four innings. His one major mistake was a hanging breaking ball that Stephen Piscotty disposed of via a solo dinger. Other than that, he seemed to be in command of the game.
D-backs manager Torey Lovullo understandably yanked the 25-year-old after 82 pitches, playing it safe in his first game back. But I wouldn’t be surprised if his leash is longer this evening. Gallen is arguably the most important part of this Arizona organization not named Ketel Marte (who is currently injured with a hamstring strain). Since joining the D-backs, the right-handed ace has a 2.78 ERA in 21 starts. He finished ninth in the NL Cy Young race last season.
The Reds’ Castillo, meanwhile, has been erratic to start the 2021 campaign. The flame-throwing righty’s strikeouts per nine innings rate has been uncharacteristically low (7.0), while his 7.04 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, and 4.86 FIP are all far-and-away the highest of his career.
If you look quickly at the Diamondbacks’ past few games, you might think they lack pop without Marte. After all, they only put up seven total runs across three weekend games against the Nationals. But they plated 11 in DC Thursday, five in each of their previous two games, and 20 combined runs the three games before that. The D-backs rank in the top five in the MLB in homers (22), and in the top 10 in runs (73) and RBI (69).
Nobody is claiming Arizona has more power than Cincy. I just like the Diamondbacks’ chances to hit Castillo more than I like the Reds’ chances to hit Gallen. Pick the traveling Snakes for the upset special.
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Pitching Matchup: Shohei Ohtani vs. Jordan Lyles
MLB Pick: Angels -1.5 (-110, PointsBet)
I was tempted to go with another underdog for my late game, and bet the scorching-hot Corbin Burnes and the Brewers +100 over the Padres. But San Diego at home and against the ropes scares me a bit. Thus, I’m going with Shohei Ohtani, in his first return to the mound since recovering from a blister on his middle finger.
The Japanese two-way star last pitched on April 4 against the White Sox, allowing just one earned run while striking out seven in 4.2 innings. Now he draws a Rangers squad that often struggles with the bat.
As of this writing Tuesday night, Texas maintained the second-worst slugging percentage in the majors (.349) and third-worst OPS (.645). Since April 7, the Rangers have gone 4-7, scoring just 29 runs in the process (2.63 runs per game). Most alarmingly, the Rangers lead the MLB in strikeouts with 179. Against a free-swinging squad on a warm Los Angeles evening, Ohtani might reach double-digits in Ks.
The journeyman Lyles, meanwhile, will be looking to improve upon his early-season string of what an old editor of mine used to refer to as “solidly mediocre” play. The 30-year-old right-hander has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his three starts this season, but he also has yet to close out six frames in any outing. He has allowed 19 of the 64 batters he has faced to reach, and his flyball count has risen in each of his past two outings.
I think the Halos smack Lyles around Tuesday night, and rally around the young phenom Ohtani. I’m all-in on the -1.5 spread, which has hovered between -110 and -120 since odds opened Monday evening.
More Baseball Picks for Tuesday
MLB Moneyline Parlay of the Day
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) at Seattle Mariners (Julio Urias vs. Marco Gonzales) – see above. The Dodgers are once again really freakin’ good, and I don’t see them losing a third-straight game (or taking a two-game sweep from the Mariners). With Seattle’s Gonzales struggling, LA has the upper-hand in every facet of the game besides speed.
Chicago White Sox (-115) at Cleveland Indians (Carlos Rodon vs. Zach Plesac) – see above. I’m not ‘chasing’ Rodon’s historic performance, I’m just picking what I believe to be the better team with the (obviously) hotter pitcher.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) at Cincinnati Reds (Zac Gallen vs. Luis Castillo) – see above. I must be out of my tree parlaying three teams on the road, but give me Gallen over Castillo every single time. Oddsmakers might be overrating Cincy here, while at the same time underrating Gallen and the D-backs’ surprisingly-potent offense.
Milwaukee Brewers (+100) vs. San Diego Padres (Corbin Burnes vs. Chris Paddack) – Burnes is on a torrid pace to start the season, with an 0.49 ERA and MLB-leading 0.86 FIP, 0.218 WHIP, and 2.0 hits per nine innings. He has struck out 30 of the 62 batters he has faced, and has yet to issue a free pass. If he’s an underdog, I’m a buyer. San Diego has been a double-play dream lately, and I don’t think they break out of their funk against this guy.
Total Parlay Odds: +1106
Bet: $50 | To Win: $553 | Total Payout: $603
Spread Parlay of the Day
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125) at Seattle Mariners (Julio Urias vs. Marco Gonzales) — see above. Sorry if you are experiencing déjà vu, but this game sticks out as one of the better values to toss into any parlay you fancy.
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180) at Cincinnati Reds (Zac Gallen vs. Luis Castillo) – see above. If you want to give me Zac Gallen and an automatic one-run cushion, I say sign me up. Castillo might get a lot of whiffs in this one, but I highly doubt he will finish with fewer earned runs than his counterpart.
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-110) vs. Texas Rangers (Shohei Ohtani vs. Jordan Lyles) – see above. It should be a beautiful 60-degrees evening in LA, a perfect setting for Ohtani to fan 10 Rangers and lead the Angels to a nice, easy victory. Hopefully the 2018 Rookie of the Year won’t run into any more blister issues on his FU finger.
Total Parlay Odds: +436
Bet: $100 |To Win: $436 |Total Payout: $536
MLB Betting Odds
Image Credit: Imagn