Monkey Knife Fight MLB Strategy: Monday, August 12th
Welcome to the weekly Monkey Knife Fight picks article, in which we are going to be doing all the research you need to make the best decisions possible.
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Now, let’s get to the article.
First Prop: BOS @ CLE: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Eduardo Rodriguez (+1.5) vs Zach Plesac: Total Fantasy Points: This one feels like a little bit of a trap here based on the Vegas implied totals for this game, but everything other than that points toward E Rod being the better play, and he’s getting 1.5 points. Plesac is a guy who pitches to contact and is not a good real life pitcher. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is an above average pitcher and probably has the easier matchup. This makes E Rod an easy pick here.
J.D. Martinez (+.5) vs Mookie Betts: Total Fantasy Points: Realistically, these two guys are a toss-up as to who is the better play on any given slate, so I’m just rolling with the guy getting the tiebreaker. Both hitters have the same matchup and are equal hitters, and both have been on a heater recently (don’t tell Carty). Just take the hitter with the tiebreaker.
Jose Ramirez (+.5) vs Rafael Devers: Total Fantasy Points: This one is another prop where it all comes down to the tiebreaker. While Devers has been very good this season, Ramirez is just as good of a hitter. Both project for around the same amount of fantasy points in these spots, both are in a pickem game, and both are in powerful lineups. Again, roll with the tiebreaker.
Second Prop: The Late Games: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Zack Greinke (+1.5) vs Joey Lucchesi: Total Fantasy Points: I know there are some obvious weather concerns in the game for Greinke, but if the game doesn’t finish then there is no contest, so no need to worry about the weather. Greinke is the much better pitcher in the much better spot. He gets the best matchup on the board today and is probably the best pitcher on the slate also, and he’s getting 1.5 points. This one is a stone-cold lock.
Mike Trout (+.5) vs Alex Bregman: Total Fantasy Points: I could spend a lot of time breaking down this question, but it comes down to something pretty simple. Mike Trout is better than every other hitter in the majors, and it’s not particularly close. He draws a decent matchup here and he’s getting the tiebreaker. Don’t overthink this.
Mitch Keller vs Merrill Kelly (+.5): Total Fantasy Points: Much like the other two in this props in this spot, this one is a no brainer. Keller is not only the better pitcher, but he’s also not pitching in Coors. It’s likely that Kelly will be the lowest scoring pitcher in the entire slate (outside of maybe Lambert) and you’re only giving up a half-point. Take an actually decent real-life pitcher in a drastically better spot.
Third Prop: ARI @ COL: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Peter Lambert (+1.5) vs Merrill Kelly: Total Strikeouts: Neither of these guys are very good pitchers and both are pitching in Coors. Currently, Vegas has Kelly pegged for 4.5 Ks, while Lambert is pegged for 3.5. The difference here is that Lambert has heavy juice on the over, while Kelly has heavy juice on the under. Both of them are essentially projected for 4 Ks when you factor in the juice, and Lambert is getting a full 1.5 points with the spread. Lambert is the obvious pick.
Nolan Arenado (+.5) vs Charlie Blackmon: Total Bases: This is another spot where we are getting two similar hitters (although Blackmon has the platoon split). Because Total Bases is a very volatile category and there’s a chance that neither one of these guys end up with one, or both of these guys end up with the same amount of total bases, you roll with Arenado. In this type of situation, Arenado wins 40% of the time, Blackmon wins 40% of the time, and they tie 20% of the time. That means that Arenado is the obvious choice because of the tiebreaker.
Good luck on your props today, and if you don’t see them up on MKF, check back later. We will try and keep these up all day (they should only change because of injury news). If any of these props do get taken down, we will try and get a new one up in this article as soon as we can.