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NBA Correlation Stacking: Friday, March 4th

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2016-03-06 03:56:56

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Welcome to Volume 2 of the NBA Correlation Stacking series, which will shed insight on stacking strategies in large field tournaments. While stacking isn’t usually a recommended strategy in cash games, it’s a high risk/high reward play that has massive upside in GPPs; if the team or game you stack stays close or potentially goes to overtime, you’re likely to reap the benefits.

I’ll not only be breaking down potential stacks of individual teams, but will also note players on the opposite bench that fit into a full fledged game stack. It’s rare that I’ll stack more than two players from a particular team without also rostering one of their opponents. Also, it’s worth noting that since this article is written on Friday’s where there are typically 8-10 games, I won’t usually recommend stacking more than 2-3 players on the same team. Stacking 3+ players from the same team is typically a better strategy on small slates.

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Heat

The Heat are in a very interesting situation tonight. While they’re in a great spot in terms of fantasy production – the Sixers have allowed the second most FPs in the last three weeks – the back-to-back for Miami is a concern. Most of that concern lies with Dwyane Wade, who played 33 minutes last night and is a candidate to get a night off given the opponent. There hasn’t been anything to suggest that he’ll sit, so we’ll proceed with the idea that the Heat will be at full strength tonight (sans Bosh). Wade, Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside are all appealing GPP targets, while Joe Johnson and Luol Deng are more of secondary GPP options. Stacking one (or two) of the guards with Hassan Whiteside is the most sensible way to expose yourself to the Heat. Whiteside correlates well with either Dwyane Wade or Goran Dragic given that most of Whiteside’s production comes from rebounds and blocks (40% rebounds, 38% points, 23% blocks) while Wade and Dragic rack up most of their production via points and assists. Dating back to February 10th (Chris Bosh played his last game on the 9th), Wade is averaging 1.2 FD points per minute while Dragic (0.91 FDPPM) and Whiteside (1.38) have also been producing in Bosh’s absence.

Top Stack: Either Dwyane Wade or Goran Dragic with Hassan Whiteside

Contrarian Stack: Joe Johnson with either Goran Dragic or Hassan Whiteside

Sixers

I don’t want anything to do with the Sixers unless Nerlens Noel (who missed practice yesterday but isn’t on today’s injury report) and Jahlil Okafor both end up sitting out. The Heat are solid defensively and they play at a slow pace, which has led to the Sixers having the 2nd lowest team total on tonight’s slate.

Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Suns

Now that the Suns rotation has ballooned over the last month, they are a very tough team to stack with success. Alex Len remains a very appealing mid-range target at center, and he’s the only player on the Phoenix side that I’ll have much exposure to. Mirza Teletovic is still fairly priced on FanDuel ($4,700) so he remains a strong value target there, but I’ll pass on his $5,600 DraftKings tag since I don’t think he has enough of a ceiling at that price. Devin Booker is coming off of his best game in quite awhile (34 pts, 4 ast, 3 reb), but this was the first time in 10 games that he’d exceeded 20 real-life points, so this looks like a letdown spot for him. If I’m stacking the Suns, I’m doing it with Mirza Teletovic (65% points, 24% rebounds) and Alex Len (43% points, 44% rebounds, 10% blocks) since they produce in relatively different ways. It’s worth noting that Teletovic tends to perform best when the Suns are double-digit underdogs, which they are tonight.

Contrarian Stack: Alex Len and Mirza Teletovic (preferably with 1-2 Orlando players)

Magic

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Editor’s Note: Victor Oladipo has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Evan Fournier is expected to return tonight which eats into the value of Elfrid Payton and Mario Hezonja, but the Magic are still a very appealing team to target tonight. Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon are all strong options in any format, and stacking them up is a more than viable strategy. While I tend to not roster Vucevic and Gordon together (79% of Gordon’s production comes from points and rebounds, while Vucevic racks up 83% of his production through those two stats), pairing one of them up with Oladipo is the most sensible way to stack the Magic.

Top Stack: Victor Oladipo with either Aaron Gordon or Nikola Vucevic

Mini-Game Stack: Oladipo, Gordon and Alex Len

Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Pacers

Paul George is the only Pacer worth rostering heavily. Myles Turner and George Hill are decent deep-GPP fliers, but Turner’s production has really leveled off since the return of Ian Mahinmi and Hill is one of the more volatile mid-range PGs in the league. This game has the second lowest total of the night, but I’ll likely fire off a tournament bullet or two that features both Paul George and Kemba Walker. Both of them are priced a tier or two below the elite options at their positions, but they each have GPP winning upside any time they take the court. George and Walker combined for over 90 FanDuel points when these teams met last Friday. If this game stays close, we could have a similar back and forth play out tonight.

Hornets

I’m approaching the Hornets in the same way I’m approaching the Pacers; I’ll have exposure to their star (Kemba Walker) but won’t be targeting the rest of the team with any volume. Nicolas Batum is an option at $6,200 on FanDuel but his drop-off in scoring over the last 10 days is frightening (he’s been held to 12 or fewer points in 6 of his last 8 games). Marvin Williams went nuts in the meeting between these teams last Friday (48 FD points), but I’m not expecting a repeat here.

Top Stack: Kemba Walker and Paul George

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Celtics

Isaiah Thomas has destroyed the Knicks this season with averages of 25 points, 7.3 assists and 5.3 rebounds over three meetings between these teams. He’s likely going to fly under the radar tonight given that the Celtics are fairly large favorites, but the Knicks have struggled to defend PGs (they’ve allowed the 7th most FPPG to PGs over the last three weeks). Pairing Thomas up with either Jae Crowder or Jared Sullinger is a viable tournament move; both Crowder and Sullinger have been playing well since the break and Kelly Olynyk absence has afforded them a little extra run (moreso with Sullinger). While Thomas contributes most of his production through points (62%) and assists (29%), Sullinger is a very well rounded player (39% points, 40% rebounds, 14% assists, 12% blocks/steals).

Top Stack: Isaiah Thomas and Jared Sullinger (this should be a very underowned combo)

Knicks

There are three viable plays on the Knicks side – Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and Robin Lopez. The tough part about stacking them up is that they all contribute in the same general way (points and rebounds). I really like Robin Lopez as a bounce-back candidate after he struggled in 19 minutes against his former team on March 1st, and pairing him up with Melo (and potentially Isaiah Thomas) is my most likely course of action. Lopez has a ton of upside at his mid-range price tag on both major sites and pairing him with Melo makes sense since Lopez isn’t nearly as scoring dependent.

Top Stack: Carmelo Anthony and Robin Lopez (potentially with Isaiah Thomas)

Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Raptors

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the only two Raptors worth rostering tonight. Lowry has been on a tear over his last two games, totaling about 115 FD points between the two contests. I’ll have more overall exposure to Lowry than DeRozan, but pairing the two together (with Damian Lillard) has a healthy ceiling if this game stays close as expected. I’ll likely just be pairing Lowry up with Damian Lillard to expose myself to this game, but adding DeRozan into the equation has viability.

Blazers

Damian Lillard is the only Blazer I’ll be rostering tonight. C.J. McCollum has some contrarian appeal on FanDuel where his price tag is falling steadily, but outside of that I’ll be ignoring Portland. If you want exposure to this game, pair up Lillard and Lowry and hope the two go back and forth throughout the night. For what it’s worth I’d expect Lowry to have a much higher ownership percentage compared to Lillard.

Top Stack: Kyle Lowry and Damian Lillard

Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Timberwolves

Finally a game with legitimate stacking upside! The Wolves are a fairly easy team to stack up; Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns all play big minutes in close games and produce in different ways. Rubio (43% assists, 33% points, 17% rebounds) is playable with Wiggins, LaVine, Towns and/or Gorgui Dieng since most of his production comes via assists, while most of Andrew Wiggins production comes through scoring (72%). Karl-Anthony Towns is in an elite spot against the starting front-court of Miles Plumlee and Jabari Parker (Greg Monroe defense off the bench isn’t scary either), and he’s actually my favorite play at the center spot on tonight’s slate. The Bucks rank in the bottom third of the league in rebounding differential and don’t have anyone capable of slowing Towns.

Top Stack #1: Ricky Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns

Top Stack #2: Rubio, Towns and Zach LaVine (with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker and/or Khris Middleton)

Top Stack #3: Rubio, Towns and Andrew Wiggins (with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker and/or Khris Middleton)

Contrarian Stack: Rubio, Towns and Gorgui Dieng (with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker and/or Khris Middleton)

Bucks

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Since the Bucks moved to a starting lineup featuring Miles Plumlee and O.J. Mayo, the offensive production for Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo has taken off. Parker’s usage rate with the starting unit sits just under 30%, which is pretty remarkable considering how slowly his season started. Pairing him up with Giannis Antetokounmpo is my most likely course of action, but Khris Middleton is also in a very enticing spot. Middleton is likely to see more of Zach LaVine while Giannis will presumably be followed around by Andrew Wiggins, and that works more in Middleton’s favor. Jerryd Bayless also holds some deep-GPP appeal if MCW is forced to sit again, as Bayless has played 35 and 32 minutes in his first two games back from injury.

Top Stack #1: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker (with 1-2 Wolves)

Top Stack #2: Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker (with 1-2 Wolves)

Contrarian Stack: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker (very few rosters will feature all three)

Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

Grizzlies

This game has the lowest total of the night by a wide margin, and I won’t be stacking this contest at all. The only Memphis player that has some appeal is Mike Conley; the Jazz have struggled more with opposing PGs than any other position, and Zach Randolph should have a very tough time against the interior defense of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. While Conley is viable as a deep-GPP target, this game is better left alone.

Jazz

The Jazz have the lowest team total of the night and face off with another slow paced team in the Grizzlies. Move along.

Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM

Wizards

John Wall is the only player on the Washington side worth considering. He’s played well in three games against the Cavs this season (averaging nearly 50 FPPG) and we can count on another night of big minutes for the Wizards floor general. He’s best paired with either LeBron James or Kyrie Irving, and playing all three together is viable given Kevin Love absence.

Cavaliers

With Kevin Love ruled out already, the options on the Cleveland side are obvious. Both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving are in excellent spots and can be targeted in any format. While I don’t usually pair the two up together, this is a spot where doing so is a recommended GPP strategy. They both own usage rates of at least 38% when they are on the floor without Love. Irving is more scoring dependent (65% of his production comes via points) while LeBron is a notorious all-around asset.

Top Stack: Kyrie Irving and LeBron James (with John Wall for full game exposure)

Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM

Nuggets

The Nuggets looked like a team that became very stackable due to Danilo Gallinari absence, but we haven’t seen much of a minutes bump for Will Barton and Kenneth Faried lower back issues have prevented him from taking on a bigger role recently. The addition of D.J. Augustin has also crowded the back-court, so this isn’t a team I’ll have much exposure to tonight. Nikola Jokic is in a nice spot against a Nets team that ranks 23rd against the center spot this season, but he’s so volatile in terms of playing time. Jokic, Barton and Faried all have some GPP appeal, but don’t overdo it with Denver exposure.

Contrarian Stack: Will Barton with either Nikola Jokic or Kenneth Faried

Nets

Joe Johnson departure has led to increased opportunity for a handful of different Nets, most notably Thaddeus Young and Bojan Bogdanovic. Brook Lopez (who is much more appealing on DraftKings) is in an elite spot against a Nuggets defense that has struggled against centers for what has seemed like years on end, but I have a hard time pairing him up with Thaddeus Young. Digging through game logs has shown that when one of the two explodes, the other tends to have a relatively down performance. With that said, both are worth rostering in GPPs regardless of whether you do it as part of a team or game stack.

Top Stack: Brook Lopez or Thaddeus Young with Bojan Bogdanovic

Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Lakers

The Lakers outlook depends very much on the status’ of Kobe Bryant and Jordan Clarkson. Based on comments from Byron Scott, it appears that Kobe is more likely to sit while Clarkson is still genuinely questionable as of this writing. D’Angelo Russell remains an elite target in all formats without Kobe on the floor, as Russell’s usage rate spikes to 27% in those instances (he’s at just under 23% for the season). Julius Randle would be a sneaky GPP target if Kobe and/or Clarkson sits, as his offensive contributions would theoretically rise with Anthony Brown Huertas”:/players/marcelo-huertas-31823 (or Nick Young) in the starting lineup as opposed to Kobe and Clarkson. The Hawks rebounding struggles also work in Randle’s favor, and he and Russell don’t produce fantasy points in the same manner.

Top Stack: D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle (with Paul Millsap or Al Horford for full game exposure)

Hawks

Atlanta is a fairly big favorite tonight in LA, but it’s been awhile since they’ve taken the court (they last played on Tuesday) so we could see the starters play big minutes if the Lakers are able to stay in striking distance. I have a hard time believing that will happen if Kobe and/or Clarkson are forced to sit, and the fact that the Hawks play at Staples Center again tomorrow (against the Clippers) could lead to the starters being pulled early. Paul Millsap, Al Horford, Jeff Teague and even Dennis Schroeder have GPP appeal in this spot. Teague is in a great bounce-back spot after struggling against the Warriors on Tuesday, and pairing him up with either Millsap or Horford is a decent GPP strategy. If you think Teague’s struggles will continue (or that the game will be out of hand early), Dennis Schroeder has plenty of upside in this spot. I tend to avoid pairing Millsap and Horford up together given that they contribute in very similar ways, but Horford’s increase in court time lately has made it a more viable play. Kyle Korver is also a stacking option at near minimum price on FanDuel.

Top Stack #1: Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague (with D’Angelo Russell)

Top Stack #2: Al Horford and Jeff Teague (with Russell)

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Stephen Keech (SBK)