NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/10/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-01-10 23:41:39

Seven games on tap today with only the Magic on a back-to-back, and we already have their injury report which is the cleanest it’s been for them in a long time, as Bol Bol is out of covid protocols and available today so only Isaac and Okeke remain out due to injury. Stephen Curry is officially questionable but it sounds like he has a really good chance of returning from his shoulder injury today, and we have some other big time questionable tags in Embiid, Doncic, Adebayo, Ayton, and Herro. The Mavericks tip at 10:30PM EST so hopefully we get the Doncic news very early as his status will be crucial for swaps to Dinwiddie, Hardaway, and/or Wood, and the Suns also tip late at 10PM EST and they have three starters questionable so we could be looking at Duane Washington as a top value play and a great swap option if we get news late. The good news is we will get Embiid’s status before lock and probably the Heat statuses as well, but overall this is a slate I like taking some players from the three 10PM or later tipoffs to give yourself maximum maneuverability if Doncic and/or some Suns starters get ruled out after lock and some other top plays open up at much lower ownership.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Joel Embiid is questionable with foot soreness and if out I’d expect PJ Tucker to start at C with Melton starting at SF. Montrezl Harrell would likely be the top backup center while Paul Reed impressed again last game and could be given more opportunity as well. Harden, Harris, and Maxey would all get nice usage bumps and be much more appealing plays with no Embiid too. (Update: Embiid is IN)

• Bam Adebayo & Tyler Herro are questionable for Miami, and at the moment they have just 11 players available so they could be down to 9 if both Q guys end up out. Orlando Robinson and Dewayne Dedmon would handle the C minutes if Adebayo sits with Robinson being the higher upside play, while Max Strus and Victor Oladipo would get most of Herro’s minutes with one likely starting for him. Jimmy Butler would be a top play of the slate if Bam and/or Herro sit. (Update: Adebayo and Herro are OUT)

• Deandre Ayton, Landry Shamet, and Torrey Craig are questionable for the Suns so they would be down to just 8 players if all three end up out. I already like Duane Washington as a value play today but if any of those three sit then he would be looking at 30+ minutes and would likely start if Shamet sits, and could be a top swap option if we get news after lock. Mikal Bridges would also be a stronger play if a couple of the Q guys are out although there is serious blowout risk as this game has a 12 point spread which is why I prefer Washington as I think he would be blowout proof as far as minutes. (Update: Ayton is OUT)

• On the other side of that game Stephen Curry is questionable to return from his shoulder injury although all signs point to him closer to probable, which makes this game even more likelier a blowout win for GSW. Curry’s return would make it hard to trust any of the other Warriors starters and guys like Klay and Poole will need their inflated prices to come way down for them to be worth consideration in DFS as their usages will take big hits with Curry in. (Update: Curry WILL PLAY)

• In the last game Luka Doncic is questionable with ankle soreness, and if he ends up out then Spencer Dinwiddie would be a top play of the slate along with Christian Wood and Tim Hardaway as those three would get big usage bumps and have to carry most of the offense. We might not know Luka’s status until after lock so make sure to have swap plans if you want to gamble on him playing and he ends up out, as that’s a lot of extra salary to have to spread out to other positions. (Update: Doncic is now PROBABLE)

• Lastly, Isaiah Livers is questionable to return from his shoulder injury and if he is available he’ll help cover some minutes at the forward spots. (Update: Livers is OUT)

• Isaiah Stewart is also out now so Nerlens Noel will start at C for DET

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Bojan Bogdanovic and Jalen Duren are out for Detroit so Isaiah Stewart is going to be very busy at center and is a strong play at his current salaries. Saddiq Bey should remain in the starting lineup at PF while Bogdanovic’s replacement could be a few different guys like Diallo, Burks, McGruder, Livers, or Knox, but for now I’d expect Diallo to get the SF start and if so he’d be a pretty strong value play.

• Kyle Lowry is out for Miami joining Martin, D. Robinson, and Jovic on the sidelines so I’d expect Gabe Vincent to start at PG and he would be in play for value if Herro ends up out as well. Haywood Highsmith should continue to start for Martin while Strus and Oladipo should be heavily involved today especially if Herro sits. (Update: Adebayo and Herro are OUT)

• Kelly Olynyk, Collin Sexton, and Talen Horton-Tucker are out for Utah so look for Walker Kessler to start at C, and although he likely won’t see over 30 minutes, he can still put up big FPPM and I like him for $4,700 on DK. Beasley, Agbaji, and Alexander-Walker will continue to handle Sexton and THT’s minutes off the bench.

• With Bol Bol available it will be interesting to see if he starts or not as they could go with him at C, and move Banchero and Carter to SF/PF with Harris moving to the bench, or they could keep Bol off the bench and stick with the same five as the last few games. I’m leaning towards the latter option at least for a few games as his conditioning probably isn’t up to par after missing four games and they probably elect to ease him back in off the bench, but his presence could limit the ceiling of Carter if he sees 15-20 minutes.

• Chris Paul remains out for Phoenix joining Booker, Johnson, and Payne on the sidelines and we’ll see if Shamet, Craig, and Ayton play through their Q tags later today. Overall I’m most interested in Duane Washington from the Suns today as he should see 25+ minutes regardless of the Q players’ statuses and could be looking at huge minutes if Shamet and Craig sit, and he could be lower-owned than usual in that spot if the Q guys get ruled out way after lock.

• In the last game of the night, Paul George and Luke Kennard are out for LAC so look for Terance Mann to continue to start and be a very strong value play at his current salaries, while either Batum or Jackson will likely start as well. Kawhi Leonard is still under $9k on both sites and has 50+ FP upside with George out.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Isaiah Stewart ($5,600) is just too cheap given the likely 35+ minutes he should see today with Duren, Bogdanovic, and Bagley out, and will be the first player I lock in to cash games at either PF or C. Depending on how other news breaks today I will also strongly consider Hamidou Diallo ($4,400) in my main build if he draws the start, as he could see 30+ minutes and has shown a high ceiling when given opportunity as a starter.

• I’ve mentioned him already but Duane Washington ($4,700) is the next guy I’m locking in to cash games as there is just too many paths to him seeing 30-35 minutes today and I still think he has a 20 FP floor if everything breaks against him and all the other questionable Suns are active. If either Shamet or Craig sit he should see 30+ minutes and possibly start, and there is a strong possibility the Suns get blown out and Washington gets a ton of garbage minutes.

• With George and Kennard out for LAC, I really like Terance Mann ($4,500) for value as he will almost certainly start and see 30+ minutes in a projected close game with Dallas. In the last four games that Mann has seen 30+ minutes he has gone for over 34 FP in each so with a 7-9x value ceiling I will be definitely using him in my main build unless some other crazy news happens and there is somehow a better SG/SF play for $4,500. Kawhi Leonard ($8,400) will also be hard to pass up at that price with no George, and he will likely make it in to my cash game lineup along with Mann.

• Update: With Adebayo and Herro now out I’d consider Jimmy Butler ($9,000) a must play while Max Strus ($5,100) is also looking like a great play for the price. Gabe Vincent ($4,000) and Haywood Highsmith ($3,900) should easily pay off their salaries if you need a super cheap option while Orlando Robinson ($5,700) has a high ceiling if he draws the start.

• Until we get more news later, those guys will be my main core today, but some other guys I’m currently liking for the price include Jaden Ivey ($5,600), Tim Hardaway ($5,300), Marcus Morris ($5,100), Kenrich Williams ($4,700), and Josh Hart ($6,100).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Isaiah Stewart ($5,100), Terance Mann ($4,000), and Duane Washington ($4,200) are even cheaper than FD and remain my starting core for cash games, while Hamidou Diallo ($3,500) is $900 cheaper than FD and will absolutely make my cash game lineup if he draws the start for Bogdanovic.

• If you start with the first three players above you have $7,340 per position remaining and should be able to fit plenty of 40-50+ FP upside guys in the remaining five spots, and if you go with Diallo too that leaves you with $8,300 per remaining four positions. Kawhi Leonard ($8,700) should be no problem to fit in today while Jimmy Butler ($8,900) is also looking a bit too cheap with Lowry out and possibly Adebayo and/or Herro as well.

• Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,100) and Christian Wood ($8,600) would be top plays in that $7-9k price range if Doncic ends up out, while Tobias Harris ($6,800) and James Harden ($10,400) would be hard to pass on in cash games if Embiid sits and we don’t know the status of Doncic before lock. (Update: Doncic is P now)

• Update: With Adebayo and Herro now out I’d consider Jimmy Butler ($8,900) a must play while Max Strus ($4,500) is also looking like a great play for the price. Gabe Vincent ($3,300) and Haywood Highsmith ($3,100) should easily pay off their salaries along with Orlando Robinson ($3,100) who is in play regardless if he starts or not.

• Other DK values I like today are Killian Hayes ($5,700), Jaden Ivey ($5,200), Lu Dort ($4,900), Kenrich Williams ($3,900), Walker Kessler ($4,700), Marcus Morris ($4,900), and Ivica Zubac ($5,200).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn