NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/13/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-01-13 23:30:46

It’s Friday the 13th so that only means one thing; a big nine game main slate that’s going to be pretty wild as far as news goes as there’s currently 25 players in the situation room with impact ratings of 8 or higher including 10 questionable players from that group. A couple big time starting PGs got hurt last game and will be out today opening up some great value plays already, and I’m sure some new top plays will emerge throughout the day as learn which way these Q tags break. Keep an eye out for the Thunder’s first injury report as they’re the only team on a back-to-back, and just like the Camp Crystal Lake kids running from Jason Voorhees, today’s slate is one to always be on your toes for as there are going to be lots of changes in the optimal plays as we get closer to lock.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Nikola Jokic is the biggest questionable player of the slate as his absence would open up a ton of usage for guys like Murray, Porter, and Gordon, so hopefully we learn his status early in the day as Denver tips at 10PM. If he’s still Q after lock and you want to gamble on him playing, and then he gets ruled out late, be ready to swap to Sabonis at C and possibly to a different Nuggets starter if you have the salary and another late player in your lineup. (Update: Jokic is OUT)

• The Wizards have three starters questionable in Kristaps Porzingis, Monte Morris, and Daniel Gafford, so Kyle Kuzma could be looking at a huge usage rate to go along with his spectacular bobblehead being given away today. If any combo of those three end up out I would consider Deni Avdija a top value of the slate, as he would likely start and showed his upside when given starters’ minutes last game, going for over 33 FP in 34 minutes. Delon Wright would also be a top value play on all sites if Morris is out as he would likely start at PG and crush his current salaries. (Update: Morris is OUT, Porzingis and Gafford are IN)

• Deandre Ayton is questionable with his ankle sprain, and he’s the last Suns player standing between another situation where they would have just 10 players available, so if he remains out I’d be looking to use Mikal Bridges in my main build and possibly Dario Saric on DK. The other Suns players are starting to see their prices creep up to numbers that don’t make them slam dunk plays, especially on such a wild slate with plenty of other great value. (Update: Ayton is IN)

• The Suns’ opponent Minnesota has three questionable players in Anthony Edwards, Kyle Anderson, and Taurean Prince, so they too could be a top team to target if Edwards and/or the other two get ruled out. Austin Rivers went for over 26 FP in 29 minutes as a starter last game and would definitely be in play for value if Edwards gets ruled out, while DAngelo Russell and Rudy Gobert would have much higher ceilings with no Edwards and Anderson.

• The Pacers are already going to be without Haliburton, and still have three other questionable players in Myles Turner, Aaron Nesmith, and Oshae Brissett. If Turner or Nesmith are out we should see Jalen Smith start for either one while Jackson, Johnson, or Brissett (if active) could start at PF or C too. (Update: Turner and Nesmith are OUT, Brissett is IN)

• Isaiah Stewart is questionable with shoulder soreness, and if out again the Pistons would be down to only Nerlens Noel at center, and even though he’s only seen around 20 minutes his last two starts he’s still averaged over 22 FPPG, but would only be in play on DK for me at his current salaries. (Update: Stewart is OUT)

• Herb Jones is questionable with his back contusion, and if out Dyson Daniels would likely start at SG again and the other cheap starters in Murphy and Marshall would be more appealing plays. (Update: Herb is OUT)

• Kevin Huerter missed last game and is questionable today with his illness, and if out look for Terence Davis to start again and be a decent value play.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• With Haliburton out for at least a couple weeks we should see TJ McConnell and Andrew Nembhard get most of the PG minutes although there is a chance McConnell starts at PG with Nembhard at SG. Either way both are going to be great plays until their salaries increase. Buddy Hield is also going to get a big usage bump with no Haliburton as shown by the season high 15 three point attempts he took last game, and Bennedict Mathurin will also be heavily involved and could possibly start too.

• Booker, Paul, Shamet, Payne, and Johnson all remain out for Phoenix so look for Duane Washington to continue to start at PG and Dario Saric at PF, while Mikal Bridges has a 40+ FP ceiling especially if Ayton gets ruled out.

• DeMar DeRozan is likely out again for CHI with his quad injury so Alex Caruso should remain a starter, while Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic will continue to see huge minutes and have massive ceilings in a home matchup with OKC.

• Kevin Porter is the other big time starting PG I mentioned in the opener that is out today, so Jalen Green will likely slide over to PG and has a higher ceiling with more usage, and KJ Martin will likely join the starting lineup at SF and is a top value play on all sites today.

• Paul George remains out for LAC, so Leonard remains one of the highest upside plays of the slate although he did see a big price increase on both sites. Nicolas Batum will likely remain a starter for George, and with Luke Kennard also still out, Mann and Powell will continue to get a lot of his minutes and Covington should remain a key part of the rotation.

• For Utah, Walker Kessler should continue to start for Olynyk and Malik Beasley could start again in order let Vanderbilt be the backup center.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• If TJ McConnell ($5,000) starts at PG for the injured Haliburton he will be the first guy I’m locking in to cash games. Even if he remains coming off the bench he can fill the stat sheet up in a variety of ways as shown by his almost triple double last game in just 26 minutes, and he also gets a nice pace up matchup with ATL that currently has the 2nd highest total of the slate and is sitting at just a 2.5 point spread. Andrew Nembhard ($5,300) will also see a big usage bump especially if he starts at PG instead of SG, and is definitely in play if you need another guard at that price, while Buddy Hield ($6,700) is one of my favorite GPP plays if you can’t find a spot for him in your cash game lineup.

• With Porter out for HOU, KJ Martin ($3,900) is looking like a “free square” today as he should draw the start and currently has the highest p/$ projection of anyone today. Martin draws the same matchup as last game in which he went for over 26 FP in 26 minutes so his floor and value upside as a starter is just too great to fade in cash games.

• With DeRozan out I definitely want some Bulls exposure at home against OKC today, and Zach LaVine ($8,600) is the highest upside player for them who only saw a $100 increase in salary after going for 50 FP in 40 minutes with no DDR last game. Nikola Vucevic ($8,100) saw a $300 decrease in salary and should dominate whoever OKC throws out at center, so I’d expect him to have a 5x value floor with a 7-8x ceiling.

• With Jokic now out for Denver I’m really liking the price of Aaron Gordon ($6,400), who is at his cheapest salary in almost a month, and will see a big usage bump today in a matchup with LAC he dominated in the last time they played going for over 50 FP in 27 minutes. Jamal Murray ($7,800) is also a top play now who will have to carry a lot more offense and should have a 40-60 FP range today.

• Even if Ayton plays I still don’t mind using Mikal Bridges ($6,700) in your main build as his minutes, floor, and upside is always one the best combos in DFS especially when he’s asked to handle more offense in close games which it should be with MIN today. Bridges is averaging over 45 FPPG in two starts against MIN this season and both those games had two of Booker/Paul/Ayton active. If Edwards and Anderson end up out for MIN then Austin Rivers ($4,100) would be my favorite bring back for the price to stack with Bridges.

• More guys I like for the price today include Delon Wright ($4,500) and Deni Avdija ($5,300) if Morris and Porzingis are out, Isaiah Stewart ($6,000) if he plays through his Q tag, Jalen Green ($7,000), Wendell Carter ($6,500), Alperen Sengun ($6,400), Malik Beasley ($5,200), Terance Mann ($4,800), and Terence Davis ($3,800) if Huerter is out again.

Looking at DraftKings:

• TJ McConnell ($4,100) and KJ Martin ($3,800) remain my top value plays and are the first guys I’m locking in to my main build. Andrew Nembhard ($4,300) is $1k cheaper than FD and will likely be in my cash game lineup unless some other insane value opens up today, but he’s still going to be hard to fade at that price given the big usage bump with no Haliburton. Bennedict Mathurin ($4,800) comes at an $800 discount to FD so I prefer him on DK as a super solid play who should see around 30 minutes.

• With Jokic now out I’m considering Jamal Murray ($6,700) a must play on DK as he’s just way underpriced give the usage bump he will see today. Aaron Gordon ($6,200) is also going to be hard to fade at that price as he will be much more involved on the glass and on offense and has a 50+ FP ceiling now.

• Terance Mann ($4,300) saw 41 minutes last game with George out and Jackson getting snubbed from the rotation, and in a projected close matchup with Denver today he has another great chance of seeing 40+ minutes and should do better than the 22.25 he scored last game, which was still good for over 5x value.

• If Isaiah Stewart ($5,300) is good to go he will be hard to pass up at that price as he should see 35+ minutes as the starting C, and make sure to keep Delon Wright ($3,400) in the back of your mind if Morris gets ruled out for WSH, along with Austin Rivers ($3,300) if Edwards & Anderson get ruled out for MIN.

• I also want to mention Saddiq Bey ($4,800) who comes at an $800 discount to FD and should remain a starter with Duren still out. Bey has seen 37 and 34 minutes the last two games and is coming off a 42 FP explosion last game, and even if Stewart returns today I still think Bey should be in consideration for cash games at his current DK price.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn