NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/22/22
We have a four game main slate beginning at 7:30PM EST today starting with Ben Simmons long awaited return to Philly who will be missing three of their top four players. (Update: Jokic and Murray we’re upgraded to Q at 6:30PM)
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Ja Morant was upgraded from doubtful to questionable this morning and if he returns it would take Tyus Jones off the value radar and make guys like Dillon Brooks and John Konchar less appealing plays. If Morant remains out then Jones, Brooks, and Konchar are all in play getting big usage bumps.
- Bones Hyland is questionable with an illness and if out I would consider Bruce Brown a must play at his current price. Ish Smith is Q and could return to help with some guard minutes as well.
- Nic Claxton and Yuta Watanabe are questionable for the Nets and with Ben Simmons likely to start today both would be coming off the bench if active. If either get ruled out then Markieff Morris would get a nice bump in minutes while O’Neale, Durant, and Simmons would all help cover their minutes too.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Embiid, Harden, and Maxey are all out for Philly but Tobias Harris is probable and likely to play so we should see Milton and Melton continue to start while either House, Reed, or Harrell should join the starting five for Embiid. Ben Simmons is expecting to start today for the Nets so it would likely be for Claxton.
- Saddiq Bey remains out for Detroit joining Isaiah Stewart so Isaiah Livers will likely start again while Bagley and Duren will handle the C minutes. Bruce Brown and DeAndre Jordan should continue to start for Murray and Jokic while Aaron Gordon is on track to return and get most of the PF minutes with Nnaji backing him up as Jeff Green is out.
- LeBron James remains out for the Lakers so Austin Reaves and Troy Brown should continue to start and Anthony Davis keeps his elite ceiling. Chris Paul remains out for the Suns so Cameron Payne will continue to start while Shamet also remains out in concussion protocol.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Shake Milton ($5,800), Bruce Brown ($6,100), and Bones Hyland ($6,500) will all be popular plays today as all are looking at big minutes with huge usage rates. With Hyland questionable with an illness I’d lean Milton and Brown from that group in cash games while Cameron Payne ($6,800) and Jaden Ivey ($6,900) are other excellent guard plays for the price.
- With Bey out I really like the price of Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,800) who comes at a nice discount to his $6.5k DK price and has a pretty safe 25-35 FP range but can always go for 40+ FP if his three point shots are falling. Killian Hayes ($5,600) and Alec Burks ($4,700) are also in play for DET and both will be much lower-owned than the guards mentioned above.
- Kevin Huerter ($5,900), Keegan Murray ($5,200), and Harrison Barnes ($6,000) are solid mid-range targets in the highest projected game total of the slate while Michael Porter ($6,200) is also a nice target in that price range who should take advantage of a better matchup today with all of the other DEN guys out.
- Austin Reaves ($5,400), Joe Harris ($4,400), Steven Adams ($5,300), Torrey Craig ($5,600), and Danuel House ($4,500) are a few other cheap guys in consideration today.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Shake Milton ($5,300) remains the top value play for me while Bruce Brown ($6,000) is also looking like a must play especially if Bones Hyland ($6,700) ends up out with his illness.
- Aaron Gordon ($5,600) is on track to return and at that price if he gets 30+ minutes he could be one of the best p/$ plays of the slate but there is some risk that his conditioning isn’t up to speed and he sees 20-25 minutes. DeAndre Jordan ($4,500) also comes at a nice discount to his $5.7k FD price and should see 25-33 minutes in a nice matchup with DET.
- Deandre Ayton ($6,800) is starting to pick it up lately going for over 35 FP in three of his last four games and he will be closer to his $7.5k FD price pretty soon on DK so take advantage of this discount.
- Killian Hayes ($5,000), Alec Burks ($4,800) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,700) are really strong value guards to consider and some other guys I like for the price include Royce ONeale ($5,500), Ben Simmons ($6,300), Danuel House ($4,300), Keegan Murray ($4,400), Isaiah Livers ($3,300), and Austin Reaves ($4,600).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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