NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/7/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-11-08 00:33:04

We have a monster 15-game slate to begin the week with all games tipping off at fifteen minute intervals starting at 7PM EST. The Wizards, Bulls, Raptors, Grizzlies, Lakers, Jazz, Cavs, and Clippers are all on a back-to-back so we’ll get their official injury reports later so make sure to check back here and with all of RG’s news resources throughout the day for injury updates and DFS analysis.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Joel Embiid is questionable with his illness again and if he out we’d likely see Montrezl Harrell draw another start and be a decent value play while Tyrese Maxey, DeAnthony Melton, and Tobias Harris would be top DFS targets having to carry pretty much all of the offense. (Update: Embiid WILL PLAY)

• Trae Young is Q with shin soreness and if he ends up out it would be hard to not use Dejounte Murray in every lineup in all formats as he’d likely see 40+ minutes and have one of the highest ceilings of the slate in what should be a competitive game with the Bucks. Aaron Holiday would likely start as well and be a decent value play. (Update: Young is OUT)

• Kevin Porter is questionable with an illness and if out I’d consider Jalen Green a top DFS target at his current salaries given the big usage bump he’d get. The other starters would get usage bumps as well while Nix, Mathews, or Christopher would likely join the starting five. (Update: Porter WILL PLAY)

• Damian Lillard is Q and could return from his calf injury which would make it hard to trust the other starters to have ceiling games while Sharpe, Winslow, and Johnson would be out of value consideration as well. If Lillard isn’t ready to return and is out then Hart, Grant, and Nurkic will continue to carry most of the offense and Justise Winslow would likely continue to start at PG. Anfernee Simons was upgraded from D to Q at 2:30PM so if he and Lillard play I won’t be on any Portland players as the usage would be too spread out. (Update: Lillard WILL PLAY)

• Kyle Kuzma was downgraded to questionable at 5:30PM and if he ends up out I would consider Kristaps Porzingis my favorite play of the slate in a great matchup looking at a monster usage rate with Beal already out as well. Avdija and Hachimura would be in play for value as well getting a lot of SF/PF minutes. (Update: Kuzma WILL PLAY)

• Ben Simmons could also return from his knee soreness and is Q tonight but I want no part of him on such a big slate with safer options and Kevin Durant is still an elite target regardless if Simmons plays or not. (Update: Simmons will play around 20 minutes today)

• Zach LaVine is questionable today after sitting out yesterday and if he ends up out again Alex Caruso would be in play for value coming off a 40+ FP game yesterday in 32 minutes while DeRozan and Vucevic would keep their higher ceilings. If LaVine plays it would be hard to trust any Bulls player to have ceiling games. (Update: LaVine WILL PLAY)

• Steven Adams is questionable with ankle soreness after leaving yesterday’s game for a bit and returning to finish and if he ends up out we could see Brandon Clarke or Xavier Tillman start at C with whoever starts being a solid value play.

• Tyler Herro is Q with an ankle sprain and if out we would likely see Max Strus join the starting five while Lowry, Butler, and Adebayo would get slight usage bumps and carry most of the offense. (Update: Herro is OUT)

• Reggie Jackson is questionable with a knee injury and if he ends up out we would see a lot of Terance Mann and Paul George at PG with both being top DFS targets. Luke Kennard is also questionable and if out it would benefit Mann and Powell.

• Jarred Vanderbilt missed yesterday’s game with an adductor injury and if he misses today’s game as well look for Malik Beasley to start for him while Markkanen, Olynyk, THT, and Gay will all help cover his minutes.

• Dennis Smith is Q with his ankle sprain and if out Terry Rozier would have a higher ceiling as the primary ball-handler while Oubre, McDaniels, and Bouknight would all get more usage as well. (Update: Dennis Smith WILL PLAY)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• LeBron James, Patrick Beverley, and Lonnie Walker are all out for the Lakers so Anthony Davis will have a big time usage bump today and is a top DFS target now. Russell Westbrook could start but even if he doesn’t his role increases as well and he has huge upside at his current cheap DFS salary. Nunn, Reaves, Brown, Gabriel, JTA, and Ryan will all see increased minutes and usage and whoever starts from that group will be in play for value.

• With Bradley Beal still out in H&S Protocols look for Corey Kispert to continue to start while Deni Avdija got back his starting job from Anthony Gill last game and should start again today.

• Gordon Hayward remains out with his shoulder injury so Dennis Smith or Jalen McDaniels will start for him.

• With Chris Duarte out and Aaron Nesmith out we should see Bennedict Mathurin draw the start today and he should be looking at 35+ minutes as there is very little SG/SF depth behind him and Hield. Even if Mathurin doesn’t start he is still a very strong play.

• Torrey Craig should continue to start for Cameron Johnson (knee) and he’s a decent value play who likely won’t see major minutes while DeAnthony Melton should continue to start for Harden.

• With Siakam out indefinitely look for Christian Koloko to continue to start at C for Toronto and be a volatile value play.

• Isaiah Hartenstein will continue to start at C for the Knicks with Robinson out a bit and he is a great play seeing big minutes while Cam Reddish could start again but is a very volatile player even if he gets big minutes.

• With Gobert still out look for Kyle Anderson to start and be a solid value option and we’ll see if Devin Vassell continues to come off the bench for the Spurs.

• Kawhi and Wall are out for the Clippers so Paul George has one of the highest ceilings of the slate while Terance Mann is a top value target especially if Jackson and Kennard both end up out as well.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,200) is the first guy I’m locking in at PF as he’s just too cheap for someone who saw 38 minutes last game as a starter and should have a pretty safe 30 FP floor and 40+ FP ceiling.

• Kristaps Porzingis ($7,600) and Kyle Kuzma ($6,500) struggled against Memphis yesterday but have a much better matchup with Charlotte today and with Beal still out both should bounce back in a huge way at excellent salaries so I’d get at least one if not both in your cash game build.

• Terance Mann ($3,600) is my favorite value play of the slate as Kawhi and Wall are out today and there’s a good chance kennard and Jackson are as well. Mann started and saw 29 minutes yesterday scoring over 28 FP and with him likely seeing similar minutes today he is just too cheap for someone with 30+ FP upside that could be forced in to huge minutes if Jackson and Kennard sit. Paul George ($9,100) is a top play as well while Marcus Morris ($5,300) and Norman Powell ($4,200) are strong value options.

• Fred VanVleet ($7,200) is good to go on the back-to-back after playing 39 minutes in his return from injury yesterday and I will be all over him at that price as he just showed his 50+ FP upside yesterday with Siakam out and will be over $8k sooner than later. Scottie Barnes ($7,300) and OG Anunoby ($6,700) are other excellent plays for Toronto while Christian Koloko ($3,700) did see 31 minutes and go for almost 40 FP yesterday and is in play for GPPs but not cash games for me as he still has a very low floor with Boucher and Achiuwa behind him if he struggles at all or gets in foul trouble.

• With LeBron, Beverley, and Walker out for the Lakers Russell Westbrook ($6,700) should see 35+ minutes and he is way too cheap for his expected role increase tonight. Troy Brown ($4,200) is also a top value play now and Anthony Davis ($10,300) is a top spend up option.

• More guys I like for the price today include Jalen Green ($5,900), Bol Bol ($5,900), Bennedict Mathurin ($5,700), DeAnthony Melton ($5,600), Patrick Williams ($4,100), Al Horford ($5,100), Kyle Anderson ($3,600), Draymond Green ($5,800), and Evan Mobley ($6,400).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Terance Mann ($3,300) remains my favorite value play and is way too cheap given his likely role today while Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,200) is also too cheap and will join Mann as the first guys I lock in my cash game lineup.

• Kyle Anderson ($4,100), Christian Koloko ($3,400), and Cam Reddish ($3,400) are projecting as top p/$ options but I would only consider Anderson as a cash game option as the other two are way too volatile for such a big slate with safer options but absolutely fire them up in GPPs.

• Darius Garland ($6,900) is somehow still under $7k and is a top DFS target at that price along with Kristaps Porzingis ($7,700) who I’m expecting to go for 50+ FP with no Beal and a great matchup with CHA.

• Fred VanVleet ($7,600) also remains too cheap along with Scottie Barnes ($7,200) while OG Anunoby ($6,200) is way too cheap and is one of my favorite plays given his huge minutes and usage bump with Siakam out.

• Russell Westbrook ($6,500) remains a top play of the slate while Troy Brown ($3,800) remains a top value play and Anthony Davis ($9,100) is way underpriced ($1,200 cheaper than FD) for his usage bump with LeBron out.

• Other guys on DK I like for the price are Jaden Ivey ($5,900), Bennedict Mathurin ($5,900), Torrey Craig ($4,000), DeAnthony Melton ($5,300), DeAndre Hunter ($4,700), Patrick Williams ($3,900), Al Horford ($5,300), Aaron Gordon ($5,700), and Evan Mobley ($6,300).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn