NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values For 3/22/2022
Today’s four-game slate is spread out over three hours with each game tipping at a different time and only the Bulls are on a back-to-back while the Clippers haven’t played since Friday. We also get Alex Caruso vs. Grayson Allen pt. 2 in the battle of $4k guards, which is even more exciting as Caruso will remain in the starting lineup for Chicago and get max chances to get some broken wrist revenge. Hey, it’s only four games — I have to hype it up somehow!
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading fantasy basketball projections and DFS lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
There’s a couple big changes on NBA Starting Lineups, but let’s start with the absence of Khris Middleton, who is out with left wrist soreness. Right now we have Pat Connaughton as his projected replacement, but they could go a few different ways with Wesley Matthews, Jordan Nwora, or even the Bobby Portis / Brook Lopez combo starting again. For the price I will be considering Connaughton or Nwora if one of them ends up starting while Brook Lopez is pretty cheap, but I’m not a fan of his current minutes limit. Overall this just makes Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday even better plays as they lead the team in usage with today’s available Bucks at a 34% and 27% usage rate respectively (seen in this CourtIQ).
The next major change is Julius Randle out with right quad soreness. Obi Toppin is the likely candidate to start for him and is a very strong value play while Mitchell Robinson becomes a much more appealing play as well having to do a lot more on the boards and on offense. The CourtIQ with the available Knicks today shows Alec Burks getting a 9.3% usage bump and RJ Barrett right behind him at +6% taking both to team highs of 26.7% and 34.3% respectively. All of the Knicks starters are in play for me today depending on positional needs and prices on each site.
The Warriors will remain without Curry, Iguodala, and Wiseman while Gary Payton is on track to return and Moses Moody could return after missing a game. The Magic will be without Jalen Suggs, so look for RJ Hampton to start and be a low-upside value play. Lou Williams is out for personal reasons joining John Collins, who is still out with his finger & foot injuries, so Danilo Gallinari should continue to start while Delon Wright should get a slight bump off the bench helping cover William’s minutes. Billy Donovan confirmed Alex Caruso will be the long-term starter, so look for him to start over Dosunmu again while the last game of the night has nothing new to report with Paul George & Norman Powell still out and just Zeke Nnaji still out for Denver.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
I feel like just inserting a tumblewood gif as The Situation Room has just two questionable players currently and only one is actually DFS relevant. If Moses Moody sits with his shoulder soreness look for the returning Gary Payton to get most of his bench minutes while Lee and Chiozza may help as well.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is the relevant questionable tag dealing with a right quad contusion, especially with Lou Williams already ruled out. If Bogdanovic sits Delon Wright would be the top bench guard available and could have some value appeal. I’d be more interested in Kevin Huerter with no Bogdanovic as he should pretty safely see 35+ minutes at the SG spot with very little depth behind him. The CourtIQ with Bogdanovic and Williams off the floor shows Trae Young scoring an additional .27 FPPM taking him to a 1.59 FPPM rate along with his 34.7% usage rate. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot actually sees the biggest usage bump at +4.1% and is a deep sleeper who could see 15-20 minutes if Bogdanovic sits.
UPDATE: Bogdanovic is IN
Zach LaVine was added as questionable at 12:30PM EST for knee injury management on the b2b and if ruled out Alex Caruso would be an even better value play while DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic would get nice usage bumps and be top plays.
UPDATE: LaVine is IN
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
With Julius Randle out I will be all over Alec Burks on FanDuel at $5,200 which is the cheapest he’s been in two weeks. With his 9% usage bump and additional .24 FPPM with Randle off the floor I think he could be one of the highest-owned players of the night. RJ Barrett at $7,200 is also too cheap with no Randle and will be one of the first guys I lock in to my main build. If it’s confirmed Obi Toppin will start I think we have to consider him at $3,700 even if it means using three Knicks as his upside as a starter is just too high for that price. Alex Caruso is also jumping out as a top p/$ play as the new starting PG who just saw 32 minutes last night. I think most people and I are going to try to fit in Giannis and Jokic today, so it’s going to take some very cheap guys to fit both and Alex Caruso at just $4,000 fits the bill and will be in my main build. Another great p/$ projected play is Bobby Portis at $5,600 who will have to do a bit more on offense with Middleton out and this is the cheapest he’s been since early February. Brook Lopez back makes him a bit riskier, but for the price and no Middleton along with a little revenge game action I’m looking at Portis as a very solid play today. On the opposite side of that game Nikola Vucevic at $6,900 is the cheapest he’s been all season and will definitely be in consideration for me tonight. Other FanDuel plays I’m considering at solid prices include DeMar DeRozan, Cole Anthony, Danilo Gallinari, Aaron Gordon, Mo Bamba, and Grayson Allen.
DraftKings has a alot of the same guys that I like on FanDuel with Alex Caruso, Alec Burks, RJ Barrett, and Jrue Holiday looking like the first four I will be locking in. Pat Connaughton is $800 cheaper than FD and at $3,700 I will definitely be using him if he’s the confirmed starter for Middleton. Mitchell Robinson at $5,400 is also looking like a much better play on DK compared to FD where he’s $700 more along with Obi Toppin at just $3,200. Bobby Portis is a bit too pricey on DK for me at $6,600 compared to FD and the same can be said for Nikola Vucevic at $7,700. Some other guys on DK I’m considering include Franz Wagner, Grayson Allen, DeAndre Hunter, and Danilo Gallinari.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn