NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values For 3/25/2022
Along with the Sweet 16 continuing tonight, we have a sweet seven-game slate today with only one team on a back-to-back (Wizards). Kyle Lowry could be looking at a busy birthday today with five Heat players currently questionable as he looks to break his 0-4 record on his big day, while the Knicks will try to keep that streak going but also have some big questionable players of their own. We also have the zero defense super bowl with HOU-POR, which not surprisingly has the highest projected total of the slate with plenty of guys to target on both sides. Hopefully tonight’s NBA games are just as close and exciting as last night’s NCAA games were, and I think they will be as no game has a spread bigger than six currently.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
There’s no new huge names missing on the NBA Starting Lineups page, but mostly a lot of guys looking to return from short absences. The biggest name missing that I can tell is Justise Winslow out with a calf injury. Brandon Williams started the 2nd half for him last game so we’re projecting him to start alongside Kris Dunn for now and this leaves Portland with just 10 guys available. Victor Oladipo is another semi-important name missing today mainly because the Heat have the potential of being down six guys today depending on how their questionable players end up.
Luka Doncic is the biggest name on track to return from his one-game absence, and he should be one of the highest-ceiling and highest-owned players of the slate coming off three days of rest in what should be a close and high scoring game with Minnesota. Dallas remains without Davis Bertans while Sterling Brown and Trey Burke are also out today.
The next biggest names looking to return today are Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson along with Tyler Herro on the other side of that game – he could be looking at a huge role if he’s active and some combo of Butler/Robinson/Tucker end up out. Obi Toppin, Jericho Sims, and Taj Gibson would have to get all the PF/C minutes if Randle & Robinson remain out.
The Warriors will get back Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Otto Porter who all rested in their last game while Andre Iguodala and Stephen Curry remain out. Their opponent Atlanta will also get back a couple guys who missed their last game in Danilo Gallinari and Lou Williams while John Collins will remain out.
Kyle Kuzma is still out and Daniel Gafford will also be out with a neck injury so Rui Hachimura should continue to start and Thomas Bryant will get the backup C minutes today, while Detroit will be without Diallo and Livers but should get back Frank Jackson.
The Jazz, Hornets, T-Wolves, 76ers, and Clippers are all projected to have their same group of guys as their last games currently, but we have some injury news to monitor for a few guys on those teams that could shake up some lineups.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Heading over to the The Situation Room we have around ten or so guys currently questionable with about half of them all being from one team. Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Caleb Martin’s statuses will all hopefully be learned before lock, but it is an 8PM tip so we might be looking at some post-lock late swaps. Obviously the safest Heat players to use are Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo and depending on how many of those other Heat guys end up out I’ll be considering Max Strus if he makes it in to the starting lineup.
Let’s go to the other side of that game, where we have Julius Randle & Mitchell Robinson questionable with quad and back injuries. If Randle plays I do like his $8k price on FanDuel, but if he remains out we should see Obi Toppin starting again and even though it’s a tough matchup he’ll be hard to fade coming off a 45+ FP performance in almost 40 minutes especially for just $4,500 on DK. He saw 40 minutes last game because Robinson was also out, and if he is again tonight look for Jericho Sims and Taj Gibson to split the center minutes. Burks and Barrett get the biggest usage bumps when Randle sits and would be in play, especially if Robinson is out too.
Karl-Anthony Towns is the last major questionable tag still dealing with a right forearm contusion and if he ends up out Naz Reid should draw the start and would be a top value play of the slate especially for $3,600 on DK. DAngelo Russell is criminally under-priced on FanDuel at $5,900 and would be a lock for my main build if Towns sits along with Anthony Edwards around $7,300 on both sites. Beverley and Vanderbilt would get slight usage bumps as well and would be fine cheap options.
Bogdan Bogdanovic was added as questionable around 1PM EST and his absence would make guys like Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, and DeAndre Hunter more appealing plays.
I’m not putting much thought in to the questionable statuses of Hassan Whiteside or Robert Covington as their bench minutes would just be taken over by other bench guys although Whiteside being out would give Gobert a slight bump in minutes in a great matchup with Charlotte.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool, as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Looking at FanDuel nothing is really screaming must-play at the moment as we only have one guy over a 6.0 p/$ projection in Ish Smith, who is more of a GPP play for me along with his PG counterpart Raul Neto who both have decent ceilings but pretty low floors. Dorian Finney-Smith is looking like a pretty solid play for $4,500 averaging around 35 minutes and coming off two games around 30 FP. Kevin Porter is another name that looks a bit too cheap for the matchup against Portland as his $5,900 price is the lowest it’s been in over two weeks along with Jalen Green at $5,700. Christian Wood is also looking like a worthy spend-up today at $8,400 in one of the best matchups possible for him to hit his 60+ FP ceiling he’s shown in two of his last four games. If you don’t end up using Joel Embiid then I’d definitely consider Rudy Gobert at just $7,600 who put up over 50 FP against Charlotte earlier this season and could be pressed in to more minutes if Whiteside doesn’t play through his Q tag. Other guys I’m currently considering include Draymond Green ($5,200), Patrick Beverley ($5,200), Drew Eubanks ($6,100), Trendon Watford ($6,000), Ben McLemore ($4,200), Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,200), and Kyle Lowry ($6,100).
It’s pretty similar over on DraftKings with nothing major jumping out at me currently while Finney-Smith, Porter, Green, Wood and Gobert are all similarly priced to FD and squarely in play for me on DK too. Patrick Beverley ($4,700) and Ben McLemore ($3,700) are both $500 cheaper than FD and both will be in heavy consideration for my main build especially Beverley if Towns ends up out and McLemore has just been really good over his last four games and with no Winslow today plus a little revenge on the mind should give him a great chance to payoff that price. Some other names I’m looking at include Royce ONeale ($3,900), Greg Brown ($3,400), Bam Adebayo ($8,000), Rui Hachimura ($4,600), and CJ Elleby ($4,200).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn