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NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 7th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-04-08 01:48:51

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers
atlantanba Vegas Total 216.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread 11.5 Vegas Spread -11.5
Team Total 102.3 Team Total 113.8
Pace +/- -0.4 Pace +/- 1.1
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Taurean Prince Ersan Ilyasova Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Channing Frye Kevin Love
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 29 26 9 16 Adj. DvP 24 25 28 8 7
DRPM -2.18 -0.99 1.20 -0.40 2.02 DRPM -2.60 -1.18 1.90 0.42 3.18

Atlanta Hawks

The theme of tonight’s NBA slate is going to be injuries and motivation. There are nine games on the slate, a couple of them are between teams fighting for playoff position. Others include teams that waived the white flag weeks ago. Our first game of the night features a Hawks team that is battling for the four seed in the East while the Cavaliers are trying to hold on to the one seed. The over/under in this game was 214 with the Cavaliers favored by 10 prior to the Hawks waiving the white flag. They announced Schroder, Bazemore, and Hardaway will all likely miss tonight’s game in addition to Millsap which was already expected. Based on that news the line only jumped to Cavaliers +12 which isn’t far. There are still major blowout concerns on both sides of this game.

Before the Hawks announced that their starters would sit there wasn’t much to love here and quite frankly there still isn’t. If we needed more value plays on this slate, Ersan Ilyasova and Taurean Prince would become attractive options. Assuming the Cavaliers start their usual starters this game could be in blowout range really quickly. Assuming that Ersan Ilyasova is allowed to play blowout minutes he’s the best option here. The Cavaliers interior will be weakened without Tristan Thompson who is out. Ilyasvoa has topped 19 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games starting in place of Millsap.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,300 $7,600 $13,900 0.96 31.6 6.3 30.4 6.0 30.6% 2.6% 23 -2.18
Tim Hardaway $5,600 $5,600 $11,200 0.78 27.0 9.2 21.1 0.2 22.7% -2.3% 29 -0.99
Taurean Prince $4,200 $4,600 $9,100 0.71 15.6 18.6 11.0 13.3 17.1% 0.3% 26 1.20
Ersan Ilyasova $5,000 $4,900 $9,700 0.88 26.4 3.9 23.3 0.5 21.5% -1.2% 9 -0.40
Dwight Howard $7,500 $7,000 $13,300 1.10 30.0 2.6 33.1 3.8 18.4% 3.1% 16 2.02
Paul Millsap $7,300 $7,100 $13,300 1.02 34.2 -8.5 35.0 -13.2 24.7% 4.6% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ersan Ilyasova

Cleveland Cavaliers

On the other side of this game we have a Cavaliers team that is favored by 12 trying to coast into the playoffs while still holding the number one seed. Cavaliers Coach Ty Lue has publicly stated that momentum and consistency are more important than the number one seed though. This would have been a good spot for the Cavaliers starters had the Hawks not ruled out so many of their core players.

With the amount of value on this slate it’s relatively easy to fit in LeBron James tonight. He has just one game under 47 fantasy points in his last eight. He also has a strong history against the Hawks averaging 57.2 FPPG in their last five meetings. James probably won’t see any fourth quarter action in this one but three quarters might be enough. James likely draws a matchup with Taurean Prince which should have James in cruise control here.

Before the Hawks ruled out their players I liked Kyrie Irving on DraftKings and I still do now to an extent. Irving is averaging 38.9 FPPG over the past five games. He already has a 70 DK point game against the Hawks earlier this season. Similar to James, Irving may see his rotations shortened but when he’s on the court he should be able to do some damage against Malcolm Delaney and Jose Calderon.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,500 $7,700 $14,200 1.08 35.1 -0.9 38.0 -5.3 32.2% -4.3% 24 -2.60
J.R. Smith $3,900 $4,400 $8,700 0.55 28.4 4.8 15.7 7.5 14.4% -0.4% 25 -1.18
LeBron James $10,900 $10,600 $18,900 1.30 37.6 -0.1 49.1 4.5 33.1% 1.4% 28 1.90
Channing Frye $3,700 $4,600 $9,100 0.83 18.8 0.1 15.6 -1.5 18.2% -4.1% 8 0.42
Kevin Love $7,600 $7,900 $14,600 1.14 31.1 -2.4 35.3 -0.7 25.3% -0.5% 7 3.18

Elite Plays – LeBron James

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (DK)

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Miami Heat Toronto Raptors
miaminba Vegas Total 206.0 torontonba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 100.0 Team Total 106.0
Pace +/- -1.6 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Josh Richardson Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 3 3 5 9 Adj. DvP 4 1 9 6 8
DRPM 0.57 -1.99 1.15 0.69 0.27 DRPM -1.62 -0.83 -0.20 1.60 2.33

Miami Heat

Our second game of the night also features two teams in the thick of the playoff hunt. ESPN’s BPI metric gives the Raptors of 50.6% chance of winning the three seed while it gives the Wizards a 45.4% chance. The Heat are on the outside looking in right now. They are in a three-way tie with the Bulls and Pacers for the final two spots. ESPN gives them a 52.2% chance of making the playoffs.

No matter what, the Heat have a tough road ahead of them. They take on a Raptors team that is sixth in total FPPG allowed. The over/under here is just 206.5 with the Raptors favored by 5.5. That line gives the Heat a team total of 100.5 which is 2.3 lower than their season average.
With that said, I don’t see a single Heat option that stands out. According to DVP, Goran Dragic has the best matchup here but that number is somewhat deflated by Kyle Lowry missing several weeks. The next best matchup goes to Hassan Whiteside but center is somewhat loaded tonight. Whiteside is a secondary play at best as we would be looking for 42.5 at his price tag which is a feat he has accomplished just four times in the last 10 games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,900 $7,500 $13,800 1.00 33.5 0.8 33.6 -1.0 29.3% 0.2% 11 0.57
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,500 $7,000 0.55 25.3 0.3 13.9 3.6 12.7% 3.1% 3 -1.99
Josh Richardson $4,900 $5,700 $11,200 0.66 29.6 4.6 19.5 4.6 18.0% -1.5% 3 1.15
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.55 15.7 -0.4 8.7 0.8 13.0% 0.4% 5 0.69
Hassan Whiteside $8,500 $7,900 $14,700 1.17 32.7 -1.6 38.3 -2.4 21.0% -0.6% 9 0.27
Tyler Johnson $5,500 $5,100 $10,100 0.86 29.9 -1.1 25.7 -2.9 22.2% 1.7% 11 N/A
James Johnson $6,400 $6,600 $12,300 0.96 26.8 2.2 25.7 2.4 23.6% 2.8% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors appear to be getting everyone healthy at just the right time. Kyle Lowry returned on Wednesday to score 50 fantasy points in 41 minutes against Detroit. He’s somewhat interesting here but the Heat rank well against PG on the season. They are fourth against the position even though Goran Dragic owns a -1.62 DRPM. The disconnect there can mainly be attributed to the Heat playing at a pace of 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes which ranks 20th in the league.

The other Raptor I would consider is Serge Ibaka. He’s only a tournament option though given his inconsistency. Over the past seven games Ibaka has two games over 35 fantasy points and three under 20. The Heat are not a terrible matchup for Ibaka though. He’s topped 25 fantasy points in three of four meetings with the Heat this season. All three of those games were as a member of the Magic though.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,500 $7,900 $14,700 1.04 37.7 39.4 27.1% 4 -1.62
DeMar DeRozan $8,900 $7,800 $14,400 1.12 35.4 1.5 39.7 1.9 34.2% -0.5% 1 -0.83
DeMarre Carroll $3,500 $3,600 $7,100 0.67 26.6 -2.3 17.7 -3.1 15.2% 1.1% 9 -0.20
Serge Ibaka $5,300 $5,400 $10,600 0.90 30.7 -1.2 27.7 1.1 20.3% 1.7% 6 1.60
Jonas Valanciunas $5,500 $5,500 $10,900 0.99 25.9 2.1 25.8 7.8 18.9% -3.1% 8 2.33

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka

Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Houston Rockets
detroitnba Vegas Total 223.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 223.0
Vegas Spread 11.0 Vegas Spread -11.0
Team Total 106.0 Team Total 117.0
Pace +/- 3.6 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Jon Leuer Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 25 Adj. DvP 14 4 25 11 6
DRPM 1.93 -1.73 1.55 -0.19 1.22 DRPM 0.80 -1.06 0.82 0.93 1.13

Detroit Pistons

Our third game of the night features a Pistons team that is almost eliminated from playoff contention against a Rockets team that is locked into the three seed in the West. The spread here is 223.5 with the Rockets favored by 12.5. That line gives the Pistons a team total of 105.5 which is actually 4.5 points higher than their season average.

There are a couple of Pistons we can target here starting with Ish Smith. With Reggie Jackson shut down for the season, Ish Smith has assumed the starting PG role. He has at least 29 fantasy points in four of the past five games. Tonight, he draws a matchup against a fast-paced Rockets team that is fifth against PG. The only concern with Smith is that Patrick Beverley owns a 1.93 DRPM which is second-best on the league for a PG. With that said, Smith started the Pistons early season matchup with the Rockets against Patrick Beverley and scored 27.8 fantasy points. Smith is best utilized on FanDuel though where he is cheaper.

The Rockets have struggled against center all season. Even though Andre Drummond has not topped 35 fantasy points in seven straight games I’m interested in this matchup. Drummond had 38.7 in his only meeting with the Rockets this season. Most of Drummond’s recent struggles can be connected to Coach Van Gundy messing with rotations. If Drummond can stay on the floor tonight he should be effective against a Rockets team 54.04 FPPG to opposing centers which is better than a point per minute.

Update: Rod Beard of the Detroit News reports that Coach Van Gundy will look to get Marjanovic and Ellenson 20-24 minutes tonight. Those minutes are likely to come at the expense of Drummond. I’ve removed him from the list on secondary plays. Boban Marjanovic becomes a very interesting target though in the same matchup Drummond would have seen.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Ish Smith $5,600 $6,200 $12,300 0.88 23.7 5.4 20.9 5.9 24.1% 3.2% 25 1.93
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,300 $5,000 $9,800 0.70 33.8 -0.7 23.7 -2.0 19.6% 5.2% 26 -1.73
Marcus Morris $5,200 $5,000 $9,800 0.72 33.0 -1.9 23.9 -1.8 20.0% 2.1% 23 1.55
Jon Leuer $3,800 $4,000 $7,800 0.76 26.5 -1.2 20.2 -3.5 17.4% -0.4% 27 -0.19
Andre Drummond $7,200 $7,400 $14,000 1.19 30.1 -2.3 35.8 -6.3 21.6% -7.5% 25 1.22
Tobias Harris $5,300 $6,100 $12,000 0.83 31.5 -1.6 26.1 -1.2 21.5% -0.3% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Ish Smith

Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond

Houston Rockets

On the other side of this game, the Rockets are huge favorites in a pace-down game that doesn’t necessarily mean a lot in the standings. Ryan Anderson is expected to play tonight on a minute limit. The Rockets main concern here is going to be finding a rhythm and simply staying sharp for the playoffs.

Assuming that Anderson plays, there are a couple of cheap plays that make sense and then of course there’s James Harden. Let’s knock out the cheap ones first. The Pistons are close to league average against PG despite playing at a pace that ranks 24th in the league. Patrick Beverley has been playing really well recently but he’s also had plus matchup against Denver and Phoenix. He’s in play tonight but it’s at least worth noting that Beverley gets a 3.5 point fantasy boost when Ryan Anderson is off the court. That’s part of the reason he’s played well lately.
The other cheap option that makes sense is Clint Capela. Outside of the fill-in value plays there isn’t a lot to love for cheap at center tonight. Capela has been incredibly consistent lately topping 20 fantasy points in nine straight. He also posted a 34.4 against these same Pistons earlier this season. Capela doesn’t have a lot of upside though as he typically tops out at 24 minutes, especially if everyone is healthy. That makes him a secondary play.

James Harden is one of tonight’s tough decisions. Shooting Guard is otherwise pretty weak and there is value galore at every position. After injuring his wrist, Harden had a couple of down games, sat out on game and then returned to score 58.4 fantasy points against Denver. The Rockets insist that everything is fine here and the Denver game backs that up. If Harden gets anywhere close to his usual amount of minutes he’s a strong play. I would still prioritize Russell Westbrook as my overall top option.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $4,900 $5,400 $10,600 0.82 30.7 0.9 25.0 -3.4 16.3% 2.4% 14 0.80
James Harden $12,100 $12,100 $21,800 1.47 36.5 -0.2 53.7 -9.9 38.7% 0.8% 4 -1.06
Trevor Ariza $5,800 $5,900 $11,600 0.73 34.5 3.3 25.3 9.4 14.4% 1.0% 25 0.82
Ryan Anderson $4,200 $4,100 $8,100 0.70 29.8 20.9 17.2% 11 0.93
Clint Capela $5,500 $5,700 $11,200 1.08 23.8 1.8 25.6 1.0 19.0% 0.2% 6 1.13
Lou Williams $4,500 $5,700 $11,200 1.05 24.5 6.6 25.7 1.7 29.1% -3.6% 4 N/A
Nene Hilario $4,700 $4,300 $8,400 0.96 17.9 4.7 17.2 6.3 19.4% 2.7% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley and Clint Capela

New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Memphis Grizzlies
newyorknba Vegas Total 198.0 memphisnba Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Spread 11.5 Vegas Spread -11.5
Team Total 93.3 Team Total 104.8
Pace +/- -3.8 Pace +/- 0.1
Proj. Starter Ron Baker Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Willy Hernangomez Marshall Plumlee Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Vince Carter JaMychal Green Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 6 9 6 3 1 Adj. DvP 17 18 18 15 28
DRPM -0.81 1.87 -0.03 0.68 0.95 DRPM 0.12 -1.21 -1.50 0.78 1.05

New York Knicks

Our fourth game of the night features a Knicks team that has been eliminated from the playoffs against a Grizzlies team that is pretty much locked into the seven seed in the West. The Knicks have been incredibly difficult team to predict recently. They’ve given up trying and now face a Grizzlies team that is fourth in total FPPG allowed. With Carmelo Anthony looking doubtful the Knicks are going to feature all kinds of not-very-good punt plays against a Grizzlies team that is fourth in total FPPG. Assuming that Porzingis and Anthony sit Guillermo Hernangomez and Ron Baker become the best options here but there’s absolutely no reason to dig that deep on this slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Ron Baker $3,600 $4,200 $8,400 0.60 14.8 17.1 8.9 8.6 16.6% -3.6% 6 -0.81
Courtney Lee $4,600 $4,800 $9,500 0.62 32.2 0.3 19.9 4.6 14.8% 3.3% 9 1.87
Carmelo Anthony $6,700 $6,600 $12,300 1.00 34.5 -0.8 34.4 -6.8 28.7% -1.4% 6 -0.03
Willy Hernangomez $5,100 $5,400 $10,600 1.03 17.8 6.0 18.4 5.2 20.5% 1.0% 3 0.68
Marshall Plumlee $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.65 6.8 -1.6 4.4 1.2 12.4% 1.8% 1 0.95
Justin Holiday $3,600 $3,400 $6,600 0.72 19.4 2.9 13.9 1.4 17.0% 0.1% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Memphis Grizzlies

On the other side of this game it’s tough to decide what to do with the Grizzlies. They probably aren’t going to catch Oklahoma City for the six seed and they already have at least a playoff spot clinched. There wasn’t even a Vegas line for this game as of this morning as odds makers wanted to know Carmelo Anthony’s status. The game finally opened at 10 but is already up around 12.5. On the bright side, the Grizzlies did announce that Mike Conley will play though an eye laceration.

The one Grizzly I have interest in is Marc Gasol. He would have been a better option without Conley but he’s typically thrived in fast-paced matchups. The Knicks rank 28th in the league defending center. Gasol also has at least 30 fantasy points in eight straight games. If Conley were out, Gasol would be an elite play but since he’s not we’ll call this a secondary play due to blowout concerns.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $8,100 $7,600 $13,900 1.05 33.6 2.6 35.4 6.9 29.7% 2.0% 17 0.12
Tony Allen $4,300 $4,500 $8,800 0.75 27.5 0.6 20.6 0.4 17.5% -2.0% 18 -1.21
Vince Carter $3,700 $3,900 $7,700 0.68 24.6 5.3 16.7 2.9 15.5% -1.5% 18 -1.50
JaMychal Green $3,600 $4,300 $8,400 0.75 27.7 -10.4 20.7 -9.8 14.3% 3.8% 15 0.78
Marc Gasol $7,700 $7,500 $13,800 1.06 34.6 -4.6 36.6 -7.9 27.9% -5.6% 28 1.05
Zach Randolph $6,000 $6,000 $11,900 1.08 24.5 6.1 26.4 8.1 28.3% 1.4% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Marc Gasol

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks
sanantonionba Vegas Total 189.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 189.0
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 91.3 Team Total 97.8
Pace +/- -4.8 Pace +/- -2.2
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Jonathon Simmons Kyle Anderson Davis Bertans Dewayne Dedmon Proj. Starter Yogi Ferrell Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Nerlens Noel
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 2 7 4 13 5 Adj. DvP 7 12 2 2 2
DRPM -1.21 0.42 -0.21 1.12 2.11 DRPM -0.46 1.69 3.11 -0.08 4.61

San Antonio Spurs

Our fifth game of the night features our lowest total at 190.5. These teams rank 27th and 29th in pace. Normally, we would be avoiding this game but not with the Spurs resting four of their five starters. We’ll be able to find quite a bit of value in this game even with the low total. Just because a lot of points won’t be scored doesn’t mean the peripheral stats won’t be there. There is one thing I need to point out with the Spurs tonight. The NBA minimum is eight active players. The Spurs have nine tonight. Just because Tony Parker is active does not mean he’s going to play heavy minutes. He’s quite possibly just a body in case of injury or foul trouble.

The five Spurs I would consider tonight in order of preference are: Patty Mills, Kyle Anderson, Dewayne Dedmon, David Lee, and Jonathan Simmons. There’s not a lot to more to say about the Spurs here. The Mavericks rank second in total FPPG allowed. All five of the players I listed though are either minimum-priced or close to it. Assuming Patty Mills draws the start, he’s the one I would call a cash game play. He’s started seven games this season topping 25 fantasy points in six of those. Even if he doesn’t start, if we assume Parker plays sparingly Mills will be in for heavy minutes against weakest part of the Mavericks defense which is their guards.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $3,900 $4,000 $7,800 0.74 25.5 0.0 18.8 -4.6 23.1% 0.9% 2 -1.21
Jonathon Simmons $3,500 $3,900 $7,700 0.67 17.3 -2.1 11.7 -3.0 18.4% 0.9% 7 0.42
Kyle Anderson $3,600 $3,600 $7,000 0.73 13.4 4.9 9.7 2.7 12.7% 0.4% 4 -0.21
Davis Bertans $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.69 11.6 3.6 8.0 0.5 15.3% -3.4% 13 1.12
Dewayne Dedmon $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.90 17.4 0.0 15.6 0.1 11.8% -1.6% 5 2.11

Elite Plays – Patty Mills

Secondary Plays – Kyle Anderson, Dewayne Dedmon, David Lee, and Jonathan Simmons

Dallas Mavericks

On the other side of this game, the Mavericks have been eliminated from the playoffs. We can safely throw the Spurs DVP out though as they aren’t using their normal starters. The only concern with the Mavericks is that they may run away with this game early enough that starters do not see full minutes. I’m sticking with the options that would either do their damage early or are young (aka not Dirk Nowitzki).

Harrison Barnes is my favorite play here. He’s all the way down to $5,300 on FD and $5,200 on DK. He’s topped 30 fantasy points in three of the last seven while failing to top 20 in the other four. He’ll draw a matchup tonight against the likes of Jonathan Simmons and Kyle Anderson. Barnes is also the most blowout-proof Maverick as he’s played at least 33 minutes in seven of the last eight games.

As much as I love Harrison Barnes, one of my favorite tournament plays tonight is Nerlens Noel. Hopefully, the Spurs DVP ranking of second against center will scare some of our opponents off Noel. He’s been an up-and-down option recently but this is exactly the type of game where he could thrive. Using Noel tonight somewhat assumes the Mavericks would take it easy with Dirk Nowitzki. It also assumes they wouldn’t do the same with Noel. That makes this recommendation a secondary play and best suited for DraftKings where he is just $4,500.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Yogi Ferrell $4,700 $4,500 $8,800 0.74 25.5 0.0 19.0 0.6 21.4% 0.2% 7 -0.46
Wesley Matthews $4,600 $4,600 $9,100 0.68 34.6 1.4 23.4 -0.9 19.7% -3.3% 12 1.69
Harrison Barnes $5,200 $5,300 $10,500 0.80 35.8 -0.8 28.8 -6.5 24.2% -4.6% 2 3.11
Dirk Nowitzki $5,900 $5,200 $10,200 0.98 26.7 1.4 26.2 1.6 24.2% 0.3% 2 -0.08
Nerlens Noel $5,700 $4,500 $8,800 1.00 20.9 2.0 20.8 4.2 17.5% -0.1% 2 4.61

Elite Plays – Harrison Barnes

Secondary Plays – Nerlens Noel (DK)

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.