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NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 26th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-27 05:34:02

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Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM

Denver Nuggets Dallas Mavericks
denvernba Vegas Total 209.5 dallasnba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 102.3 Team Proj. 107.3
Team Pace 98.20 Team Pace 96.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 11 7 10 27 12 Opp. Season 25 27 15 24 22
Last 3 Weeks 5 14 14 16 26 Last 3 Weeks 15 4 22 22 24

Denver Nuggets

Record: 23-35 — Road: 12-18 — Last 10: 5-5

The Nuggets have won five of their last ten games, but are still well outside the playoff picture in the Western Conference. Denver is listed as a 5-point underdog tonight against the Mavericks in Dallas. The Nuggets are projected to score 102.3 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board.

The Mavericks are never a team that really stands out when it comes to matchups, but they aren’t a team that we need to avoid targeting players against either. On the season, they are ranked between 14th and 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Jameer Nelson is probable tonight, which means I will be avoiding both Emmanuel Mudiay and D.J. Augustin.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Danilo Gallinari
danilo-gallinari-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.94
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.8 35.9 1.1 36.1 1.3
FPPG (FD) 30.6 30.1 -0.5 28.4 -2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 20.3 20.1 -0.2 19.6 -0.8

Gallinari grades out as a good, but not great play tonight against the Mavericks. He has underwhelmed a bit in the last week, but is still averaging 30.1 fantasy points in his last ten games. Gallinari should see minutes in the mid to upper-30s tonight against a mediocre Mavericks’ defense.

Nikola Jokic
nikola-jokic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$5,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.0 22.2 2.2 21.0 1.0
FPPG (FD) 21.6 26.7 5.1 25.3 3.6
TO-Adj. Usage 17.4 20.0 2.5 17.9 0.5

Jokic is another player that I will not be looking to target in cash games, but is on my radar for tournaments tonight. He has immense upside, but his playing time is inconsistent and he commits so many bad fouls. He comes into this game in good form, averaging 26.7 fantasy points in his last ten games.

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 30-28 — Home: 16-12 — Last 10: 4-6

The Mavericks have lost six of their last ten games and are now only a game and a half ahead of the ninth place Utah Jazz in the Western Conference. Tonight they host the Nuggets in what is a favorable matchup for fantasy production. The Mavericks are projected to score 107.3 points, which is 5.8 points above their scoring average.

The Nuggets have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The issue with the Mavericks is that they have such a well balanced offense that it becomes difficult to predict who will play well on a nightly basis. Zaza Pachulia could potentially post a double-double in this matchup. While he makes a decent tournament option, I am looking to spend up at the position in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Wesley Matthews
wesley-matthews-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,200 Salary:$4,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.66
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 33.4 0.3 34.0 0.9
FPPG (FD) 19.8 16.6 -3.3 18.7 -1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 15.1 13.3 -1.7 14.4 -0.7

There isn’t a ton of value at shooting guard tonight, but Matthews sticks out as a nice play at home. He hasn’t had the best numbers in Dallas, but he is averaging 34 minutes per game in his last five. During that stretch, he has scored at least 21 fantasy points three times. He’s not a player that I will be actively targeting tonight, but don’t mind using him as a filler if you need a cheap shooting guard.

Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Sacramento Kings
laclippersnba Vegas Total 219.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 219.5
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 111.0 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 98.40 Team Pace 102.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Paul Pierce Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Quincy Acy DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 21 30 23 29 25 Opp. Season 3 10 9 9 19
Last 3 Weeks 7 30 29 30 20 Last 3 Weeks 2 6 4 20 11

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 37-20 — Road: 18-10 — Last 10: 6-4

The Clippers have continued to play well without Blake Griffin. They have won six of their last ten games and are now 37-20 overall. Tonight they head to Sacramento to take on the Kings in what should be a great game to target. The Clippers are projected to score 111 points, which is the second highest team total and 6.2 points above their scoring average.

The Kings have been arguably the top matchup in all of fantasy basketball. They play at the league’s fastest pace and they have allowed more points per game than any other team in the NBA this season. The Clippers have a very high team total and with the spread being set at only 2.5-points, we can target them without having to worry about a potential blowout. J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford are both decent value plays at shooting guard. Targeting shooting guards against the Kings is a longstanding tradition in DFS.

Elite Plays

Chris Paul
chris-paul-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,800 Salary:$9,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.22 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.0 35.9 2.9 36.3 3.3
FPPG (FD) 40.3 43.9 3.6 50.1 9.8
TO-Adj. Usage 24.5 24.4 -0.1 24.3 -0.2

Paul is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. He has been a man amongst boys (talent wise not physically) over the last couple of months and he draws one of the best matchups in all of basketball. Paul should see a full complement of minutes tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 21st against point guards this season.

DeAndre Jordan
deandre-jordan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.11
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.9 36.5 2.6 35.8 1.9
FPPG (FD) 35.2 42.0 6.9 40.8 5.6
TO-Adj. Usage 12.0 13.5 1.5 14.5 2.4

Jordan is also an elite play for me in this matchup. You would think that foul trouble could potentially be a concern here (DeMarcus Cousins), but in their last six meetings, Jordan has averaged less than four fouls per game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play close to 40 minutes tonight against the Kings, who do not defend the pick and roll well. He’s basically a lock for a double-double with the potential for a monster outing.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Sacramento Kings

Record: 24-32 — Home: 14-14 — Last 10: 4-6

The Kings have lost six of their last ten games and are now eight games below .500 on the season. Tonight they host the Clippers in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game. The Kings are projected to score 108.5 points, which is the third highest team total on the board and 1.4 points above their scoring average.

The Clippers have really picked up their play on the defensive end of the floor. On the season, they are now ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas doesn’t seem too concerned about the matchup though, as pace usually trumps efficiency.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins
demarcus-cousins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,700 Salary:$10,600
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:1.36 FP/Min:1.48
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.5 35.9 1.4 35.9 1.4
FPPG (FD) 46.8 47.1 0.3 47.6 0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 29.0 28.1 -0.9 27.6 -1.4

If you look at his statistics against the Clippers, they don’t jump off the page. However, in his last five meetings against them, he is averaging 1.47 fantasy points per minute. The issue hasn’t been productivity, it has been playing time. Cousins is basically seeing 35+ minutes at this point of the season and there is no reason to think that changes tonight.

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo
rajon-rondo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.1 34.9 -0.2 35.4 0.3
FPPG (FD) 38.0 40.3 2.3 44.6 6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 17.2 17.8 0.6 17.8 0.5

Rondo always seems to grade out as a great play, but I never end up using him in cash games. That will be the case again tonight, as I prefer some of the other options at the position. Rondo does make a nice tournament play though. He has been in great form recently and his matchup against Chris Paul should scare people off of him tonight.

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Los Angeles Lakers
memphisnba Vegas Total 210.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Sprd -4.5 Vegas Sprd 4.5
Team Proj. 107.3 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 98.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mike Conley P.J. Hairston Matt Barnes Zach Randolph JaMychal Green Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 30 28 29 22 28 Opp. Season 9 5 14 11 1
Last 3 Weeks 27 3 30 25 13 Last 3 Weeks 10 10 5 6 1

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 33-23 — Road: 12-14 — Last 10: 7-3

The Grizzlies and Lakers played the other night in Memphis and will now repeat the process in Los Angeles. Even without Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have won seven of their last ten games. They are 4.5-point favorites tonight with an implied team total of 107.3 points. We should point out that their total is 8.7 points above their season average, which is a huge boost when you consider that they are playing without Gasol.

The Lakers are right there with the Kings as the best team to target players against. The issue with the Lakers is that there is usually the possibility of a blowout. We don’t have to worry about that as much tonight though, as the spread is set at only 4.5 points. The Grizzlies’ offense sees a major boost as a whole in this matchup.

Elite Plays

Mike Conley
mike-conley-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$7,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.6 31.3 -0.3 33.0 1.4
FPPG (FD) 29.5 30.8 1.3 34.0 4.5
TO-Adj. Usage 21.2 20.7 -0.4 23.1 1.9

Conley should be the chalk play at point guard tonight. There are some great plays at the position, but the combination of opportunity, matchup, and price are just too good to ignore with Conley. He had 43 fantasy points against the Lakers the other night in only 29 minutes of action. He should see closer to 35 minutes tonight, assuming this game stays close.

Zach Randolph
zach-randolph-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$7,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.2 30.8 1.6 33.1 3.9
FPPG (FD) 26.3 28.2 1.9 32.0 5.7
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 20.1 0.3 20.5 0.7

Randolph didn’t have a bad game the other night against the Lakers, but 30.3 fantasy points was a little disappointing. I’m expecting a much better outing from him tonight, as he could also see around 35 minutes if the game stays close. The Lakers have struggled against bigs all season, ranking 22nd against power forwards and 28th against centers.

Matt Barnes
matt-barnes-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$5,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.7 27.4 0.7 28.6 1.9
FPPG (FD) 20.5 21.4 0.8 18.7 -1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.1 14.3 0.2 13.4 -0.7

I often get asked the question, “what is the maximum number of players that you can target from a single team.” The answer isn’t very straightforward, as it depends on a lot of different factors. For me, it’s usually more about the combined salaries of those players that it is about the number of players. For instance, a combination of Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Serge Ibaka would cost around $27,000 for three players. That’s too much of your salary cap to invest into one team. However, if the salaries are cheaper for say a trio like Conley, Randolph, and Barnes, I’m certainly willing to use all three, especially in a matchup against the Lakers.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 11-48 — Home: 6-19 — Last 10: 2-8

The Lakers only have two wins in their last ten games, but are expected to be competitive in tonight’s battle against the Grizzlies. The Lakers are projected to score 102.8 points in this matchup. While that is the fifth lowest implied total on the board, it is 5.2 points above their scoring average.

The Grizzlies are ranked sixth in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game, but that was in large part thanks to Marc Gasol. With Marcy Marc out, the Grizzlies are a middle-of-the-road defensive team. Kobe Bryant is not listed on the injury report, but he has taken off a number of games at home this season. It’s just something to keep in mind when building your lineups. Julius Randle is a decent GPP play, but again, there are so many great power forward options that he’s not a must play by any means. Jordan Clarkson is another player that I don’t mind using, but prefer him in GPPs rather than cash games.

Elite Plays

D’Angelo Russell
d-angelo-russell-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$5,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.3 29.3 2.0 30.0 2.7
FPPG (FD) 22.1 23.5 1.4 23.4 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 19.4 18.3 -1.1 17.6 -1.8

Russell was one of the only Lakers’ players to play well against Memphis the other night. He finished the game with 37.8 fantasy points in 33 minutes of action. He should be a safe bet to play 30+ minutes again tonight. While we can’t expect a repeat performance, he is my favorite point guard target under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious