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NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-28 03:51:55

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Charlotte Hornets Indiana Pacers
charlottenba Vegas Total 204.5 indiananba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 97.70 Team Pace 99.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 6 17 5 12 15 Opp. Season 13 15 22 25 14
Last 3 Weeks 24 17 15 11 6 Last 3 Weeks 9 15 23 10 25

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 29-27 — Road: 10-18 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hornets have been playing good ball recently, winning seven of their last ten games. Tonight they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers in what is expected to be a fast-paced game. The Hornets are only projected to score 100.8 points though, which is surprisingly the lowest implied total of the 18 teams on the schedule.

The main reason why the Hornets have the lowest team total is their matchup. On the season, the Pacers are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. There are some very favorable matchups in this slate, so we shouldn’t try to force any Hornets’ players into our lineups. I will be avoiding Kemba Walker in all league formats here. Most home/road splits in the NBA are just noise, but he averages five less fantasy points per game on the road in his career.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum
nicolas-batum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.3 37.9 2.6 37.6 2.3
FPPG (FD) 30.5 31.9 1.4 31.3 0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 17.5 15.5 -1.9 14.1 -3.4

Batum may not have the highest usage in the Hornets’ offense (14.1 over the last five games), but he contributes in all areas of the stat sheet. I always like targeting players that are multi-dimensional, because they can have good fantasy outings even when they aren’t scoring a ton of points. Batum has averaged 37.9 minutes per game over his last ten and he could see upwards of 40 tonight against Paul George and the Pacers.

Indiana Pacers

Record: 31-26 — Home: 18-9 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and are currently only a game out of hosting a first-round playoff series. Tonight they square off against the Hornets, who have struggled away from home. The Pacers are projected to score 103.8 points, which is 1.3 points above their scoring average.

The Hornets are slightly better defensively than most people realize. On the season, they are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and tenth in defensive efficiency. C.J. Miles has already been ruled out of this contest, but it sounds like Rodney Stuckey will return to the lineup. Stuckey won’t play a ton of minutes, but he will cut into the production of George Hill and Monta Ellis moving forward.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,800 Salary:$8,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.20
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.5 35.7 0.2 36.4 0.9
FPPG (FD) 38.9 40.6 1.6 42.0 3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 24.9 25.5 0.6 26.6 1.7

George finally appears to have turned a corner, averaging 42 fantasy points over his last five games. The only reason that he is listed as a secondary option is the alternatives at his position. Dollar for dollar, I have LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, and Matt Barnes ranked ahead of George. He does draw a nice matchup against the Hornets though, as they are ranked 22nd against small forwards this season.

Myles Turner
myles-turner-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.6 30.1 8.5 29.9 8.3
FPPG (FD) 20.3 27.3 7.0 27.5 7.2
TO-Adj. Usage 17.8 17.6 -0.3 18.8 0.9

Turner is a lot like Aaron Gordon in that they are both extremely talented young players, but both are being capped at around 30 minutes per night. If Turner was guaranteed to play 35 minutes, I’d be all over him at this price. However, I project him to play 30-32 tonight against the Hornets. The matchup is certainly in his favor, but there are a few other power forward plays that I like a bit more tonight.

Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Washington Wizards Philadelphia 76ers
washingtonnba Vegas Total 215.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Sprd -8.5 Vegas Sprd 8.5
Team Proj. 112.0 Team Proj. 103.5
Team Pace 100.30 Team Pace 100.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 22 16 27 28 30 Opp. Season 14 24 26 10 13
Last 3 Weeks 19 20 11 17 27 Last 3 Weeks 12 5 18 13 19

Washington Wizards

Record: 26-30 — Road: 12-14 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards are currently three games behind the Hornets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They are going to need to make a run if they want to get into the postseason. They have a good chance to pick up a road win tonight, as they take on the Sixers in Philadelphia. The Wizards are projected to score 112 points, which is the highest team total on the board. Washington also has the biggest differential between their implied total and their scoring average at 9.4 points.

The Sixers are always one of the top teams to target players against in daily fantasy basketball. They are ranked 23rd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. They are also ranked below the league average in fantasy points allowed to each of the five positions on the floor. The Wizards have been playing in a lot of games recently, but they are not in a back-to-back situation, so target them with confidence tonight.

Elite Plays

John Wall
john-wall-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,700 Salary:$9,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.17 FP/Min:1.27
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 35.8 -0.1 33.1 -2.8
FPPG (FD) 41.8 45.7 3.9 40.3 -1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 24.6 25.3 0.7 24.7 0.1

Earlier in his career, Wall was a player that had much better splits at home than he did on the road. That’s no longer an issue though, as the difference has been minimal this season. Wall draws an elite matchup tonight against the Sixers and the fact that this game is being played on the road only helps his minute projection. Wall is an elite play in all league formats tonight, although if I had to choose one, I’d give a slight edge to Chris Paul.

Secondary Plays

Marcin Gortat
marcin-gortat-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.0 29.6 -1.4 29.4 -1.6
FPPG (FD) 30.4 32.4 2.1 34.7 4.4
TO-Adj. Usage 15.5 16.8 1.3 17.5 1.9

Gortat is really the only other Wizards’ player on my radar tonight. I love the spot as a whole, but I can’t trust Bradley Beal, Garrett Temple, Otto Porter, or Jared Dudley. Gortat has been very efficient over his last five games, averaging 4.4 more fantasy points per game than his season average. There is no reason to think that he can’t keep that up tonight against the Sixers, who have a poor rebounding differential and struggle to defend the pick and roll.

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 8-49 — Home: 5-22 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers have lost nine of their last ten games and are starting to get blown out on a regular basis again. They are listed as 8.5-point underdogs tonight against the Wizards at home. Even though they are expected to lose, the Sixers are projected to score 103.5 points, which is 7.6 points above their scoring average.

The Wizards have a below average defense by all accounts, ranking 17th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The issue that I have with the Sixers isn’t the matchup, it’s the inconsistency. Individually, their players have big swings in both their minutes and production on a nightly basis. Despite the high team total, I will be avoiding all Sixers tonight. You could take a look at Nerlens Noel in tournaments, but Paul Millsap, Kristaps Porzingis, and Zach Randolph are all better plays.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Orlando Magic at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Orlando Magic New York Knicks
orlandonba Vegas Total 207.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 102.8 Team Proj. 104.8
Team Pace 96.90 Team Pace 95.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 19 13 11 5 16 Opp. Season 24 4 20 19 11
Last 3 Weeks 30 25 19 2 12 Last 3 Weeks 23 1 20 21 22

Orlando Magic

Record: 25-31 — Road: 10-16 — Last 10: 4-6

The Magic played the Warriors tough for three quarters, but were eventually blown out by the best team in the NBA. They have a quick turnaround tonight, as they play the second half of a back-to-back in New York. The Magic are 2-point underdogs in this matchup with an implied team total of 102.8 points.

The Knicks aren’t a team that we try to avoid or go out of our way to target players against. They are a mediocre matchup for fantasy production and they are ranked between 11th and 19th against point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, and centers. The Magic is a team that has a lot of good fantasy options, but none that really stand out as must plays tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic
nikola-vucevic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 35.1 3.0 35.2 3.1
FPPG (FD) 34.8 39.1 4.3 41.5 6.7
TO-Adj. Usage 22.5 24.2 1.7 25.7 3.2

If we had an awards show for daily fantasy basketball, Vucevic would win the best first quarter player in the league award. He almost always has a monster quarter, but for whatever reason isn’t as productive later in games. I like his matchup tonight against Robin Lopez and the Knicks. If the slate was smaller, I would probably have Vucevic listed as an elite play tonight. However, given the other options at center and the fact that the Magic are playing the tail end of a back-to-back, I’ll list him as a secondary play.

Aaron Gordon
aaron-gordon-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.3 29.7 7.4 29.6 7.3
FPPG (FD) 19.8 29.4 9.5 32.1 12.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.4 15.3 0.9 15.9 1.4

Gordon is the shiny new toy that everyone wants exposure to. He has incredible athleticism and he showed that he can handle the rock last night against the Warriors. While I do like the upside that he provides in tournaments, he draws a difficult matchup against Kristaps Porzingis and the Knicks. If I’m targeting a power forward in this game, I’d rather have the one on the other side of the ball.

Evan Fournier
evan-fournier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$6,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 35.3 3.2 39.9 7.8
FPPG (FD) 23.1 25.7 2.7 31.5 8.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 16.1 -0.8 17.2 0.3

Fournier is a sheer volume play. Over his last five games, he is averaging a ridiculous 39.9 minutes. It will be interesting to see if those minutes take a dip in the second half of a back-to-back. Even if they do, we can safely project him to play at least 35 minutes in a mediocre matchup against the Knicks.

New York Knicks

Record: 24-35 — Home: 14-16 — Last 10: 1-9

The Knicks have lost nine of their last ten games and have basically put a stamp on their season (mailing it in). They are 2-point favorites tonight though, and they get to face the Magic on the tail end of a back-to-back. The Knicks are projected to score 104.8 points in this matchup, which is 5.6 points above their scoring average.

The Magic have slowly gotten worse defensively this season. At one point, they were a top ten defensive team. However, they are now ranked 12th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Knicks have a high team total in this matchup and there are two players that I am very high on tonight. I will continue to fade Robin Lopez, though. While he has been solid recently, I refuse to pay nearly $6,000 for him.

Elite Plays

Carmelo Anthony
carmelo-anthony-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.0 37.2 2.2 37.8 2.8
FPPG (FD) 37.7 40.9 3.2 42.6 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.5 26.2 0.7 25.6 0.1

It will be interesting to see where everyone comes out at small forward tonight. LeBron James, Paul George, and Anthony are all solid plays at the position and we obviously have Matt Barnes in a great spot as well. Anthony is a price-sensitive play for me. He seems a little expensive on FanDuel, but grades out as an elite play on DraftKings. Over his last five games, he is averaging 42.6 fantasy points in 37.8 minutes per contest.

Kristaps Porzingis
kristaps-porzingis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.3 28.9 0.6 28.9 0.6
FPPG (FD) 28.3 26.0 -2.2 26.3 -2.0
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 20.2 0.3 20.7 0.8

When I first took a look at this slate, I had Porzingis listed as a borderline secondary option. The more I dive into the numbers though, the more and more I like Porzingis. The one knock on him this season has been his playing time, but he has played at least 33 minutes in five of his last seven games. During that stretch, he has scored at least 34 fantasy points four times. I’m expecting a strong finish to the season from Porzingis and now is the time to target him in DFS before his price comes up.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Toronto Raptors
clevelandnba Vegas Total 208.0 torontonba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 104.8 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 95.20 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 4 12 4 4 18 Opp. Season 18 6 7 2 2
Last 3 Weeks 3 21 7 3 23 Last 3 Weeks 18 2 12 4 8

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 41-15 — Road: 17-10 — Last 10: 7-3

The Cavaliers have won seven of their last ten games and are 41-15 overall. They draw one of their toughest tests to date, as they head to Toronto to take on the Raptors tonight. This should be a terrific game to watch, as these are the two best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers are projected to score 104.8 points, which is 1.7 points above their scoring average.

The Raptors have been terrific defensively this season, ranking ninth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. I usually try to avoid targeting players against this team, but when it comes to the Cavaliers, it’s more about the spread than the matchup. This offense is firing on all cylinders right now and their starters should all see a full complement of minutes tonight.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,900 Salary:$9,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.32
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 36.5 0.7 35.3 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 44.3 46.2 1.8 45.6 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 27.5 27.9 0.4 27.2 -0.3

Many will look to the Raptors’ DvP and immediately think to avoid James tonight. However, I see a game where he could play upwards of 40 minutes and where the Cavaliers have a high team total in comparison to their scoring average. James is about as matchup-proof as they come in the NBA and we have seen him step up in tough matchups time and time again.

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,200 Salary:$7,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.12
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 30.6 -1.5 29.7 -2.4
FPPG (FD) 32.9 30.0 -2.9 31.4 -1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 19.6 19.7 0.1 21.6 1.9

I’m not going to use Love in anything that resembles a cash game, but it’s a nice time to target him in tournaments. After his dud against the Hornets the other night, his ownership will likely dip below 10%, even though he has played well since the Cavaliers fired David Blatt.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 38-18 — Home: 20-6 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and have a good chance to creep one game closer to the Cavaliers with a win over them tonight at home. The Raptors are listed as 1.5-point underdogs, but Vegas basically sees this game as a pick ‘em. While the Cavaliers’ defense is stout, the Raptors are projected to score 103.3 points.

It’s always a bit strange when two top five defenses square off and both of their team totals are above their scoring averages. I’m a little more concerned about the matchup for the Raptors though, as Cleveland is ranked second in points allowed per game and third in rebounding differential this season.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,800 Salary:$8,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.05 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.9 38.1 1.2 38.0 1.1
FPPG (FD) 38.9 37.7 -1.1 39.3 0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 22.4 21.3 -1.1 21.6 -0.7

I will preface this by saying I will not be using Lowry in cash games tonight. While that may sound strange since I have him listed as an elite play, hear me out. John Wall and Chris Paul are both slightly better cash game targets. However, Lowry has as much upside as those two and he is considerably cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He also had two nice games against the Cavaliers last season, averaging close to 50 fantasy points per game. Lowry is a fade for me in cash games, but is my favorite tournament play on the board.

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,100 Salary:$7,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.2 34.7 -1.5 36.6 0.4
FPPG (FD) 35.2 36.0 0.8 36.8 1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 25.8 27.9 2.0 26.5 0.7

DeRozan is too expensive on FanDuel, but is worth a look as a secondary play tonight on DraftKings. He is a bit underpriced at only $7,500, especially considering the fact that he is averaging 36 fantasy points over his last ten games. The matchup isn’t in his favor, but the implied team total suggests that the Raptors shouldn’t have a tough time scoring tonight.

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM

Chicago Bulls Atlanta Hawks
chicagonba Vegas Total 208.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 107.0
Team Pace 98.70 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose E’Twaun Moore Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 9 22 18 17 24 Opp. Season 28 14 24 18 23
Last 3 Weeks 22 18 26 28 21 Last 3 Weeks 26 7 28 27 14

Chicago Bulls

Record: 30-26 — Road: 11-16 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games and are quickly dropping in the Eastern Conference standings. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are trying to make one last run in the playoffs. The Bulls are 6-point underdogs in this matchup and they are one of the only teams on the schedule with an implied team total that is lower than their scoring average.

The Hawks are often thought of as an exploitable matchup in daily fantasy basketball, but they are actually ranked eighth in points allowed per game and third in defensive efficiency. The main situation to monitor here is the availability of Derrick Rose (I’m still fuming at his 7:05 ET scratch on Wednesday). If Rose is ruled out, Pau Gasol, E’Twaun Moore, and Aaron Brooks would all see a boost in minutes and/or usage.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol
pau-gasol-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.20 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 33.9 1.9 32.5 0.5
FPPG (FD) 38.5 41.1 2.7 40.5 2.0
TO-Adj. Usage 21.0 20.4 -0.6 21.1 0.0

If Derrick Rose is ruled out, we can safely bump Gasol up to an elite play. If Rose is able to suit up, I would consider Gasol a secondary cash game option and an elite tournament play. With all of the injuries to the Bulls’ frontcourt, Gasol’s minutes are way up over his last ten games. Additionally, with Jimmy Butler out, Gasol’s usage is also up. He provides a high floor and a high ceiling tonight against the Hawks.

E’Twaun Moore
e-twaun-moore-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$5,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.62 FP/Min:0.67
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.8 32.1 12.3 31.2 11.4
FPPG (FD) 12.4 23.2 10.9 23.1 10.8
TO-Adj. Usage 13.3 15.3 2.0 15.3 1.9

Moore is in the same boat as Pau Gasol. If Derrick Rose is out, we can safely bump him up to an elite play (especially on FanDuel). He has played well filling in for Jimmy Butler and he had a nice game starting at point guard with Rose out on Wednesday. This is another one of those volume plays where I like the number of minutes that I’m getting at the price.

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 31-27 — Home: 17-12 — Last 10: 4-6

The Hawks have not been playing their best basketball recently, but they are still listed as 6-point favorites tonight against the Bulls. This is a very good matchup for fantasy production, as evidenced by the Hawks’ team total of 107 points. The Bulls have allowed at least 100 points in every single game since Jimmy Butler got hurt.

The Bulls’ defense may not look terrible in terms of points allowed per game and defensive efficiency, but they have allowed the sixth most fantasy points of any team this season. To put that in perspective, they have allowed more fantasy points per game than the Nuggets and the Nets. Give the Hawks’ offense a sizable boost as a whole tonight. Kyle Korver may get some love in this matchup against his former team. While I do like the value he provides, I prefer Wesley Matthews at a similar price point.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 33.8 1.2 35.2 2.6
FPPG (FD) 37.0 32.8 -4.2 36.2 -0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 20.2 19.7 -0.5 21.5 1.3

Millsap is Mr. Reliable when it comes to DFS. He rarely has a dud and he can rack up fantasy points in a number of different ways. His price is affordable across the industry, even though he is averaging 36.2 fantasy points in his last five games. I’m curious to see what his ownership will be tonight, because there are a ton of great power forwards on the board.

Al Horford
al-horford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,100
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 34.4 2.4 38.0 6.0
FPPG (FD) 31.9 34.4 2.6 40.8 8.9
TO-Adj. Usage 18.1 16.7 -1.4 17.3 -0.8

Is it just me, or does no one seem to notice when Horford has a big game? It’s like the whole tree in the forest thing. Horford put up 66 fantasy points against the Warriors the other night and I didn’t hear a peep about it. What’s even more appealing is his increase in playing time. Over his last five games, he is averaging 38 minutes per contest. It’s been a while since I’ve had Horford listed as an elite play, but the stars are aligning for him tonight against the Bulls.

Secondary Plays

Jeff Teague
jeff-teague-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.4 28.1 -0.3 27.7 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 27.0 30.3 3.3 29.2 2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 21.7 23.8 2.1 24.9 3.2

Teague is strictly a GPP play for me tonight. There is always the risk that Dennis Schroder will come in and outplay him, which makes Teague a very risky cash game option. However, Teague has played well recently, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in three of his last five games. He also draws a nice matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked 28th against point guards this season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious