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NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 20th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-21 02:29:02

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Detroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM

Detroit Pistons Minnesota Timberwolves
detroitnba Vegas Total 201.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 101.3 Team Proj. 100.3
Team Pace 98.10 Team Pace 100.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 15 14 14 17 11 Opp. Season 7 18 4 23 1
Opp. Last 7 15 15 20 6 24 Opp. Last 7 1 29 7 28 12

Detroit Pistons (Record: 6-5, Road: 3-4)

The Pistons have been a nice conversation piece here in the early part of the season. They have played pretty well thus far and they have one of the best big men in the NBA in Andre Drummond. Dr. Dre and the Pistons head to Minnesota tonight to take on the Pistons.

The Wolves were one of the best defensive teams in the early part of the season, but have since fallen back down to Earth. They are now ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pistons have an implied team total of 101.3 points tonight. While that may not jump off the page at you, that total is actually four points higher than their average points scored this season.

Andre Drummond should be the focal point of the Pistons’ fantasy options tonight. He has scored at least 14 points and has grabbed at least 15 rebounds in each of his last six games. He can see clearly from 20 feet, as he is a threat to post a 20-point, 20-rebound outing every time he takes the floor (20/20 reference). Once again, Drummond is the top center on the board tonight. Marcus Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both strong cash game options, as both players routinely see 35+ minutes of playing time. Reggie Jackson is worth a look as a contrarian play in tournaments.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

FD: $10,100 — DK: $9,900
FD Position: C — DK Position: C
Min/Game: 37.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.3
FP/Game: 47.0 — FP/Min.: 1.26

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,700
FD Position: PG — DK Position: PG
Min/Game: 32.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 27.0
FP/Game: 32.8 — FP/Min.: 1.02

Marcus Morris

FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,300
FD Position: SF — DK Position: SF
Min/Game: 37.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.4
FP/Game: 27.1 — FP/Min.: 0.72

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,100
FD Position: SG — DK Position: SG
Min/Game: 37.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.2
FP/Game: 22.0 — FP/Min.: 0.59

Minnesota Timberwolves (Record: 5-7, Home: 0-5)

The Wolves are 5-7 on the season, but surprisingly, they are 0-5 at home. They will look to pick up their first home win tonight, as they host the visiting Pistons. Vegas is expecting a close game, as the Wolves are one point underdogs with the total set at 201.5 points.

The Pistons have really been solid defensively this season, ranking eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Wolves have an implied team total of 100.3 points tonight, but that’s nearly three points lower than their average points scored this season.

The DvP chart above would lead you to believe that Andrew Wiggins is in a favorable matchup tonight, but he will likely see both Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris tonight, both of whom are excellent defenders. Karl-Anthony Towns has had a tremendous start to his pro career, but foul trouble could be an issue tonight against Andre Drummond. I’ll likely be avoiding the Wolves tonight at home.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Andrew Wiggins

FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,800
FD Position: SF — DK Position: SG
Min/Game: 34.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 24.8
FP/Game: 28.6 — FP/Min.: 0.83

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD: $7,100 — DK: $7,300
FD Position: C — DK Position: C
Min/Game: 29.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.3
FP/Game: 33.5 — FP/Min.: 1.13

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM

Utah Jazz Dallas Mavericks
utahnba Vegas Total 193.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 193.0
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 95.20 Team Pace 100.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 14 9 1 28 12 Opp. Season 3 4 13 4 2
Opp. Last 7 12 17 9 20 11 Opp. Last 7 4 22 19 13 13

Utah Jazz (Record: 6-5, Road: 4-4)

The Jazz have played eight of their first 11 games on the road and have performed well thus far with a 6-5 record. They have another road game tonight, as they head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks.

The Mavericks have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 12th and 19th in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Jazz have a low implied team total of 95.5 points, but that is right around their average points scored on the season. Given the pace of the Jazz, it’s hard to list any of their players as elite options in such an average matchup. Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, and Rodney Hood are all viable secondary plays, but none stand out as must starts with such a full slate of games on tap tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Derrick Favors

FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,600
FD Position: PF — DK Position: PF
Min/Game: 30.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.5
FP/Game: 35.0 — FP/Min.: 1.16

Rudy Gobert

FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,700
FD Position: C — DK Position: C
Min/Game: 34.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 10.4
FP/Game: 30.3 — FP/Min.: 0.88

Rodney Hood

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,900
FD Position: SG — DK Position: SG
Min/Game: 29.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.6
FP/Game: 22.2 — FP/Min.: 0.75

Dallas Mavericks (Record: 8-4, Home: 3-2)

The Mavericks have played better than most people (including myself) expected, after losing out on DeAndre Jordan in the offseason. You can argue that the Mavericks will only get better, as Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons continue to work their way into this offense.

The Mavericks draw an awful matchup tonight against the Jazz. When Rudy Gobert is on the floor, the Jazz are right there with the Spurs, as the best defensive team in the NBA. They are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Mavericks have an implied team total of 97.5 points, which is four points lower than their average points scored on the season. Dwight Powell is really the only fantasy option of note here and he is a secondary option tonight against the Jazz.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dwight Powell

FD: $4,500 — DK: $5,000
FD Position: PF — DK Position: PF
Min/Game: 22.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.8
FP/Game: 23.3 — FP/Min.: 1.05

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM

Phoenix Suns Denver Nuggets
phoenixnba Vegas Total 206.0 denvernba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 104.3 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 102.70 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Brandon Knight P.J. Tucker Markieff Morris Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried J.J. Hickson
Opp. Season 22 30 8 16 23 Opp. Season 13 16 27 3 8
Opp. Last 7 8 30 15 19 25 Opp. Last 7 6 20 23 1 7

Phoenix Suns (Record: 6-5, Road: 1-2)

The Suns are 6-5 to start the season. They are only 1-2 on the road thus far though, and tonight they head to Denver to take on the Nuggets. This should be one of the fastest-paced games on the board tonight, as both teams have averaged at least 99 possessions per game this season.

The Nuggets aren’t as bad defensively as they have been in years past, but they are still ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Suns have an implied team total of 104.3 points, which is the sixth highest on the board tonight.

Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight are both in play tonight against the Nuggets, who are ranked 22nd and 30th in fantasy points allowed to point guards and shooting guards, respectively. We have seen them both reach value in the past and both are strong options in what should be a high-scoring game. Markieff Morris has not fared well this season, but his price is depressed and he draws a nice matchup against Kenneth Faried. He is a sneaky tournament play tonight.

Elite Plays

Eric Bledsoe

FD: $8,500 — DK: $8,400
FD Position: SG — DK Position: SG
Min/Game: 33.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 24.9
FP/Game: 38.6 — FP/Min.: 1.14

Brandon Knight

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,500
FD Position: PG — DK Position: PG
Min/Game: 34.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.8
FP/Game: 33.5 — FP/Min.: 0.97

Secondary Plays

Markieff Morris

FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,600
FD Position: PF — DK Position: PF
Min/Game: 25.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.8
FP/Game: 21.1 — FP/Min.: 0.83

Denver Nuggets (Record: 6-6, Home: 3-2)

The Nuggets have played well this season, posting a 6-6 record with a 3-2 record at home. Tonight they host the visiting Suns in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game. The Nuggets are 2.5-point underdogs with the total for the game set at 206 points.

The Suns have been much better defensively this season, thanks to the addition of Tyson Chandler. They are ranked at or above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Despite the tough matchup on paper, the Nuggets are still projected to score 101.8 points tonight.

There are two players that are on my radar from the Nuggets tonight. Emmanuel Mudiay has had an up and down start to his pro career, but he is a stat stuffing point guard at a very reasonable price on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Danilo Gallinari is also a strong play tonight, although he has really struggled with consistency this season. Both players make better tournaments targets than they do cash game targets tonight against the Suns.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Danilo Gallinari

FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,300
FD Position: SF — DK Position: SF
Min/Game: 33.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.5
FP/Game: 29.2 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Emmanuel Mudiay

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,900
FD Position: PG — DK Position: PG
Min/Game: 30.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.7
FP/Game: 25.4 — FP/Min.: 0.84

Will Barton

FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,300
FD Position: SG — DK Position: SG
Min/Game: 26.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.0
FP/Game: 26.0 — FP/Min.: 0.97

Nikola Jokic

FD: $4,100 — DK: $3,500
FD Position: C — DK Position: C
Min/Game: 15.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.6
FP/Game: 15.3 — FP/Min.: 1.00

Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Portland Trail Blazers
laclippersnba Vegas Total 210.0 portlandnba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd 3.5
Team Proj. 106.8 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 100.60 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul Jamal Crawford Paul Pierce Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 19 28 5 12 27 Opp. Season 18 27 11 19 18
Opp. Last 7 3 28 27 11 23 Opp. Last 7 30 6 8 25 8

Los Angeles Clippers (Record: 6-5, Road: 1-3)

The Clippers ALMOST handed the Warriors their first loss of the season, but they fell just short last night. They now have to turn around and face the Blazers in Portland tonight. Chris Paul was able to play last night, but after logging 32 minutes, you never know how his back is feeling. Look for an update on his and J.J. Redick status later in the day.

The Blazers provide a favorable matchup for the Clippers, as they are ranked 15th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Clippers have an implied team total of 106.8 points, which is the second highest on the schedule tonight.

Blake Griffin is a strong play at power forward tonight, regardless of whether or not Chris Paul plays. He will be heavily involved in the offense and he can contribute in all areas of the stat sheet. Jamal Crawford will make a strong play tonight if J.J. Redick is out again. He would become close to a must play if Paul and Redick are both out.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD: $9,700 — DK: $9,600
FD Position: PF — DK Position: PF
Min/Game: 34.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 27.2
FP/Game: 44.6 — FP/Min.: 1.31

Secondary Plays

Jamal Crawford

FD: $4,400 — DK: $5,000
FD Position: SG — DK Position: SG
Min/Game: 24.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.4
FP/Game: 19.6 — FP/Min.: 0.81

Portland Trail Blazers (Record: 4-9, Home: 2-3)

The Blazers started off the season strong, but they have lost seven in a row and they now sit at 4-9 on the season. They are playing at home tonight, but they will have a tough time ending their losing streak against a talented Clippers’ team.

The Clippers have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Blazers have an implied team total of 103.3 points, which is three points higher than their average on the season.

Damian Lillard would see a small boost if Chris Paul is unable to play, although point guards have actually had a lot of success against the Clippers, even with Paul on the floor. Lillard is a borderline elite play in all league formats. C.J. McCollum and Al-Farouq Aminu are also borderline elite plays at their respective positions, so it really just comes down to their prices on each of the individual fantasy sites.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard

FD: $9,000 — DK: $8,800
FD Position: PG — DK Position: PG
Min/Game: 37.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 26.9
FP/Game: 39.2 — FP/Min.: 1.05

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum

FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,500
FD Position: SG — DK Position: SG
Min/Game: 35.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.8
FP/Game: 29.2 — FP/Min.: 0.83

Al-Farouq Aminu

FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,200
FD Position: SF — DK Position: SF
Min/Game: 32.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.9
FP/Game: 25.7 — FP/Min.: 0.78

Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Toronto Raptors Los Angeles Lakers
torontonba Vegas Total 202.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 104.0 Team Proj. 98.0
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 100.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 27 12 26 24 28 Opp. Season 6 19 10 7 20
Opp. Last 7 26 16 28 10 22 Opp. Last 7 21 24 2 7 4

Toronto Raptors (Record: 7-6, Road: 4-5)

The Raptors have been on the road a lot to start the season, playing ten of their first 14 games away from home. Tonight they will be in Los Angeles to take on the Lakers, in what should be a nice game to target for fantasy production.

In what may be the least surprising news of the season, the Lakers are not good at defense. They are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. With an implied team total of 104 points, the Raptors have some intriguing fantasy options tonight.

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan should have their way with the Lakers’ frontcourt duo of D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson. Lowry has the slightly better matchup of the two, but both players should be considered elite plays at their respective positions. DeMarre Carroll has played at least 35 minutes in each of his last three games and makes for a sneaky play at small forward. Jonas Valanciunas deserves a look in tournaments, as the Lakers are the third worst rebounding team in the NBA.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD: $8,600 — DK: $8,100
FD Position: PG — DK Position: PG
Min/Game: 35.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.6
FP/Game: 38.6 — FP/Min.: 1.10

DeMar DeRozan

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,100
FD Position: SG — DK Position: SG
Min/Game: 35.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 24.3
FP/Game: 33.6 — FP/Min.: 0.94

Secondary Plays

Jonas Valanciunas

FD: $6,000 — DK: $5,700
FD Position: C — DK Position: C
Min/Game: 28.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.9
FP/Game: 26.2 — FP/Min.: 0.93

DeMarre Carroll

FD: $5,900 — DK: $5,600
FD Position: SF — DK Position: SF
Min/Game: 35.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.6
FP/Game: 22.9 — FP/Min.: 0.64

Los Angeles Lakers (Record: 2-9, Home: 1-3)

The Lakers are 2-9 on the season, including a paltry 1-3 record at home. They are getting little love from the oddsmakers tonight, as they are listed as 6-point underdogs against the Raptors on their own home floor.

The Raptors have been tough defensively this season, ranking above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Lakers have been a tough team to target even in favorable matchups and with an implied team total of only 98 points, there really aren’t any players that stand out as elite plays here. Julius Randle is the closest thing to it, but I’d much rather target Jared Sullinger at a similar price point.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Julius Randle

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,800
FD Position: PF — DK Position: PF
Min/Game: 28.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.0
FP/Game: 24.4 — FP/Min.: 0.86

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious