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NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-22 15:42:48

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Charlotte Hornets
philadelphianba Vegas Total 196.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Sprd 10.5 Vegas Sprd -10.5
Team Proj. 92.8 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 99.80 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Al Jefferson
Opp. Season 9 11 16 30 15 Opp. Season 23 3 30 27 22
Opp. Last 7 13 13 16 29 28 Opp. Last 7 14 11 30 27 10

Philadelphia 76ers (Record: 0-12, Road: 0-5)

Two questions: 1. Which came first, the chicken or the egg? 2. Which comes first, a Sixers’ win or a Warriors’ loss? Philadelphia had some close calls, but they are now 0-12 on the season. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets in Charlotte. Nerlens Noel is dealing with some knee tendinitis and is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game.

The Sixers draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked between 14th and 20th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed. With an implied team total of only 92.8 points, the Sixers are an easy team to fade on a night with such a full slate of games. Jahlil Okafor is the one fantasy option that stands out in this matchup. He has been terrific this season and he’ll draw a nice matchup against Al Jefferson, who has never been known for his play on the defensive end of the floor. Okafor would also see a nice boost if Nerlens Noel is unable to suit up.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jahlil Okafor

Bump him up to an elite play if Nerlens Noel is out.
FD: $6,500 — DK: $7,100
FD Position: C — DK Position: C
Min/Game: 33.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.6
FP/Game: 30.6 — FP/Min.: 0.91

Charlotte Hornets (Record: 6-6, Home: 4-1)

The Hornets seem to be playing much more like a team this season. That will often happen when you replace Lance Stephenson with Nicolas Batum. They are 6-6 thus far with a 4-1 record at home. Vegas has them installed as 10.5-point favorites tonight.

The Sixers are one of those teams that can be a great matchup and a poor matchup, all at the same time. Their defense is one of the worst in the NBA, but they are on the losing end of so many blowouts, that opponent’s starters often only play three quarters, before the bench comes in to finish out the game. The Hornets have a high implied team total of 103.3 points, but with the large spread of 10.5 points, how much of that production is going to come from the starters?

In my opinion, the larger the slate, the less likely I am to play someone that is involved in a potential blowout – unless of course he is an elite value play. The reasoning is simple: with so many options at each position, we don’t have to take unnecessary risks, especially in cash games. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum both stand out in their individual matchups against T.J. McConnell and Nik Stauskas, but there is a decent chance that they will both be on the bench in the fourth quarter.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,700
FD Position: PG — DK Position: PG
Min/Game: 32.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.5
FP/Game: 31.2 — FP/Min.: 0.96

Nicolas Batum

FD: $7,000 — DK: $7,000
FD Position: SF — DK Position: SF
Min/Game: 34.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.9
FP/Game: 30.5 — FP/Min.: 0.88

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Brooklyn Nets Boston Celtics
brooklynnba Vegas Total 201.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 201.0
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 96.3 Team Proj. 104.8
Team Pace 97.60 Team Pace 101.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Marcus Smart Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 22 22 14 15 Opp. Season 20 24 21 9 25
Opp. Last 7 7 5 22 14 19 Opp. Last 7 24 8 18 15 29

Brooklyn Nets (Record: 2-10, Road: 1-7)

The Nets 2-10 record is a bit misleading, as they have been playing much better basketball recently. They have won two of their last five games and each of their last seven have been decided by eight points or less. That’s important to note, because if they are able to keep games close, it keeps the starters from both teams in the game. Tonight they head to Boston to take on the Celtics.

I never thought I would say this about a fast-paced Celtics’ team, but they have morphed into an elite defense this season. They are ranked third in defensive efficiency, sixth in points allowed per game, and eighth in fantasy points allowed per game. The Nets have an implied team total of 96.3 points, which is the fourth lowest of the 22 teams in action tonight.

When it comes to the Nets, there are basically three fantasy options that stand out above the rest – Brook Lopez, Thaddeus Young, and Jarrett Jack. No offense to Joe Johnson. Speaking of that, is it just me, or does when someone say “no offense,” isn’t it basically just a warning that they are about to offend someone? My no offense to Joe is the good kind. Anyway, Jarrett Jack will be matched up against Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Isaiah Thomas at times tonight. There isn’t a lot to like there. Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young will see Amir Johnson and Jared Sullinger. Young is my favorite play of the three, as he has been surprisingly consistent this season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez

Much better play on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel.
FD: $8,200 — DK: $7,200
FD Position: C — DK Position: C
Min/Game: 34.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.5
FP/Game: 35.5 — FP/Min.: 1.03

Thaddeus Young

FD: $6,300 — DK: $6,400
FD Position: PF — DK Position: PF
Min/Game: 31.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.2
FP/Game: 30.0 — FP/Min.: 0.96

Boston Celtics (Record: 6-5, Home: 3-4)

The Celtics have had some great wins this season. For whatever reason, I always expect their record to be better than what it actually is. A large part of their problem has been their play at home. They are only 3-4 at the TD Garden this season.

The Celtics draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Boston has an implied team total of 104.8 points, which is the fourth highest on the schedule tonight. There is some potential for a blowout here with the Celtics favored by 8.5-points, but as I mentioned above, the Nets have done a nice job of keeping games close recently.

The Celtics will be at full-strength again tonight, which means a deep and inconsistent rotation. It’s always hard to accurately predict the minutes of the Celtics’ players, as they have such a good bench that they can take over the game at any point. Jared Sullinger is the top option here. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in nine straight games and his minutes are trending upward, topping the 30 minute mark in three of his last five games. Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, and Marcus Smart are all secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

Jared Sullinger

FD: $6,100 — DK: $6,200
FD Position: PF — DK Position: C
Min/Game: 24.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.4
FP/Game: 28.9 — FP/Min.: 1.17

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

Nice tournament play if he draws another start.
FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,300
FD Position: PG — DK Position: PG
Min/Game: 30.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 27.2
FP/Game: 33.2 — FP/Min.: 1.09

Jae Crowder

FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,600
FD Position: SF — DK Position: SF
Min/Game: 30.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.0
FP/Game: 24.6 — FP/Min.: 0.80

Marcus Smart

FD: $5,500 — DK: $4,800
FD Position: PG — DK Position: PG
Min/Game: 30.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.3
FP/Game: 22.5 — FP/Min.: 0.75

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM

San Antonio Spurs New Orleans Pelicans
sanantonionba Vegas Total 200.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd -9.0 Vegas Sprd 9.0
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 95.5
Team Pace 97.30 Team Pace 100.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Eric Gordon Alonzo Gee Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 30 13 20 18 29 Opp. Season 25 1 2 1 4
Opp. Last 7 27 10 26 3 26 Opp. Last 7 11 1 5 2 20

San Antonio Spurs (Record: 9-2, Road: 4-2)

The Spurs have won six games in a row and tonight they face a team that only has a single win so far this season. The Spurs are listed as 9-point favorites tonight against the Pelicans, even though this game will take place in New Orleans.

To say that the Pelicans haven’t played much defense this season would be putting it kindly. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, right? Unfortunately, we are talking about Pelicans, not squirrels. They are still searching for their nuts. On the season, they are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Spurs have an implied team total of 104.5 points, which is the fifth highest on the board tonight.

When it comes to daily fantasy basketball and the Spurs, there is basically Kawhi Leonard and then there is the rest of the team. Leonard has been a fantasy beast this season, averaging over 38 fantasy points in 33 minutes of action per game. He has a high turnover-adjusted usage rate of 22.6 and he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He is an elite play at small forward tonight, even at his elevated price point.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD: $8,600 — DK: $8,200
FD Position: SF — DK Position: SF
Min/Game: 33.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.6
FP/Game: 38.3 — FP/Min.: 1.15

Secondary Plays

NONE

New Orleans Pelicans (Record: 1-11, Home: 1-4)

As mentioned above, the Pelicans are still searching for their nuts. They will have a hard time finding them tonight against the Spurs, who are still one of the best teams in the NBA. Anthony Davis is questionable for tonight’s game, while Jrue Holiday will return to the starting lineup after sitting out Wednesday’s game in the second half of a back-to-back.

The Spurs are the worst team to target players against in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked first or second in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. They are also on the winning end of quite a few blowouts. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are worth a look if Anthony Davis is ruled out, but all three can be avoided if he plays.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

If Anthony Davis is ruled out.

Ryan Anderson

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,300
FD Position: PF — DK Position: PF
Min/Game: 32.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.0
FP/Game: 28.3 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Eric Gordon

FD: $6,200 — DK: $6,500
FD Position: SG — DK Position: SG
Min/Game: 36.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.0
FP/Game: 28.2 — FP/Min.: 0.78

Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

Houston Rockets Memphis Grizzlies
houstonnba Vegas Total 200.0 memphisnba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 97.8 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 101.10 Team Pace 96.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jason Terry James Harden Trevor Ariza Terrence Jones Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 26 8 18 25 3 Opp. Season 24 20 28 29 21
Opp. Last 7 22 25 4 26 6 Opp. Last 7 17 26 21 21 21

Houston Rockets (Record: 5-7, Road: 2-2)

The Rockets picked up a big win over the Blazers the other night. It wasn’t a big win in terms of the opponent, but it was a much-need victory after they fired their head coach Kevin McHale. Tonight they head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies.

I feel like a broken record every time I break down the Grizzlies defense. I continue to say that they are going to improve their play on that side of the floor and even though they haven’t made vast improvements, they are now ranked 17th in points allowed per game and 12th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Rockets have an implied team total of 97.8 points, which is four points lower than their average points scored this season. In what will be a pace-down game for the Rockets, I see them as secondary options with such a full slate of games. I will likely be fading the Rockets altogether.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

James Harden

FD: $10,300 — DK: $10,400
FD Position: SG — DK Position: SG
Min/Game: 39.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 28.3
FP/Game: 46.2 — FP/Min.: 1.18

Dwight Howard

FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,600
FD Position: C — DK Position: C
Min/Game: 31.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.0
FP/Game: 34.8 — FP/Min.: 1.11

Memphis Grizzlies (Record: 6-6, Home: 3-2)

The Grizzlies have clawed their way back to .500 (6-6) on the season. They haven’t looked great at times, but most of us figured that they would eventually right the ship. They have a nice core group of players and if they can continue to get the type of production out of Jeff Green that we are seeing, they could really make some noise in the West.

The Grizzlies draw a tremendous matchup tonight against the Rockets, who are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. This will be a pace-up game for Memphis, as Houston averages nearly five more possessions per game than the Grizzlies do this season. Their implied team total is sitting at 102.3 points, which is seven points higher than their average points scored on the season.

The Grizzlies may have the biggest fantasy boost on the board tonight, in terms of expected production compared to their production on the season. Jeff Green has come alive over the last three games, scoring at least 27 fantasy points in each. As long as he remains in the starting lineup, he should remain in yours as well. Marc Gasol has a tough individual matchup against Dwight Howard, but he is a safe cash game option at center. Zach Randolph should be able to have some success on the block against Terrence Jones, but I find myself looking elsewhere at power forward. And finally, we have Mike Conley, who routinely gets overlooked at point guard. There are always a ton of options at the position, but he deserves consideration going up against the likes of Jason Terry and Ty Lawson.

Elite Plays

Jeff Green

FD: $4,300 — DK: $3,900
FD Position: SF — DK Position: SF
Min/Game: 25.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.4
FP/Game: 16.1 — FP/Min.: 0.64

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,100
FD Position: C — DK Position: C
Min/Game: 32.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.1
FP/Game: 28.9 — FP/Min.: 0.89

Zach Randolph

FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,300
FD Position: PF — DK Position: PF
Min/Game: 30.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.9
FP/Game: 27.1 — FP/Min.: 0.89

Mike Conley

FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,200
FD Position: PG — DK Position: PG
Min/Game: 31.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.8
FP/Game: 28.2 — FP/Min.: 0.89

New York Knicks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM

New York Knicks Oklahoma City Thunder
newyorknba Vegas Total 206.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 106.5
Team Pace 98.10 Team Pace 101.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Anthony Morrow Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 11 29 12 20 6 Opp. Season 12 10 7 6 10
Opp. Last 7 23 12 12 18 15 Opp. Last 7 10 2 6 8 3

New York Knicks (Record: 6-6, Road: 3-2)

The New York Kristaps Knicks are looking for their third win in a row. They have climbed back to .500 on the season and they now get to face a Kevin Durant-less Thunder team. The Knicks are listed as 7-point underdogs tonight on the road.

The Thunder have slowed their pace of play with Kevin Durant out of the lineup, which helps explain their recent improvement on the defensive end of the floor. Even with a slower pace, they are still ranked 17th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Knicks have an implied team total of 99.5 points, which is right around their average points scored this season.

There are basically two fantasy options on the Knicks right now: Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. Anthony has a Westbrook-like usage rate (turnover-adjusted, of course) of 27.6 this season. While I do like the thought of using Anthony in an uptempo game, there are better players to spend up on tonight. Porzingis is coming off his best game ever, scoring 29 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. He had Madison Square Garden chanting, “PORZINGIS, PORZINGIS, PORZINGIS!” While I am a big fan of Kristaps, he has only topped 30 minutes twice in his last ten games. I have a hard time paying that price for a player that isn’t guaranteed 30 minutes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

FD: $9,600 — DK: $8,500
FD Position: SF — DK Position: SF
Min/Game: 34.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 27.6
FP/Game: 38.6 — FP/Min.: 1.11

Kristaps Porzingis

FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,100
FD Position: PF — DK Position: PF
Min/Game: 25.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.2
FP/Game: 26.3 — FP/Min.: 1.04

Oklahoma City Thunder (Record: 7-5, Home: 5-2)

The Oklahoma City Westbrooks Thunder are 7-5 to start the season. They are trying to hold down the fort, while they wait for Kevin Durant to return from his injury. Durant has been ramping up his activity at practice, but he has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. You know what that means? Another special edition of the Russell Westbrook Show.

The Knicks have been stout defensively this season, largely in part thanks to their slow pace of play. They are ranked right at the league average in defensive efficiency, but are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. This is not a great matchup, but we saw Russell Westbrook put up a line of 40 points, four rebounds, 14 assists, and three steals against the Grizzlies in Memphis. He should have no problem getting whatever he wants offensively tonight. Full slates are typically my favorite slates to target superstars, because it’s easy to find the necessary value plays to surround them with.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD: $11,700 — DK: $12,300
FD Position: PG — DK Position: PG
Min/Game: 35.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 31.1
FP/Game: 53.0 — FP/Min.: 1.51

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka

FD: $6,900 — DK: $7,000
FD Position: PF — DK Position: PF
Min/Game: 33.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.0
FP/Game: 29.6 — FP/Min.: 0.88

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious