NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 11th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Charlotte Hornets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.0 |  | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.0 | Vegas Spread | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.5 | Implied Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Jeremy Lamb | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | DvP | 17 | 22 | 27 | 11 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 15 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 9 | |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have lost seven of their last ten games and have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA this season. There is only one other team that has a single road win this season (Knicks). Tonight they head to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder, who have been stout defensively. On the season, the Thunder are ranked third in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. The Hornets come into the game as 7-point underdogs with an implied total of 99.5 points, which is more than five points below their season average.
Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller have already been ruled out of tonight’s game, but Jeremy Lamb and Frank Kaminsky are both expected to play. With Batum out, Lamb will likely draw the start and should see over 30 minutes of action. He’s one of the better point-per-dollar options of the slate, as he is averaging over a fantasy point per minute this season. We used to be able to stream point guards against the Thunder, but that hasn’t been the case this season. Russell Westbrook has really picked up his play on the defensive end of the floor, as evidenced by the fact that Oklahoma City is ranked sixth in efficiency and fifth in DvP against point guards. Kemba Walker doesn’t stand out as a great play in a slate that has quite a few point guard options.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Frank Kaminsky, and Marvin Williams could all see a small boost in minutes while Zeller is out, but the matchup is far from ideal. From an efficiency standpoint, the Thunder are ranked third against small forwards and ninth against power forwards this season. Dwight Howard is one of the most volatile players in the NBA. He has a low floor, but a high ceiling for a player at his price point. He draws a tough individual matchup against Steven Adams, but is still viable in tournaments given his upside.
Notable Injuries
Nicolas Batum (Out)
Frank Kaminsky (Probable)
Jeremy Lamb (Probable)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -5.1 (12 of 12)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.0 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.4 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $8,300 | $7,700 | $14,500 | 37.3 | 3.7 | 35.2 | 0.4 | 1.06 | 26.5% | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $5,000 | $5,000 | $10,700 | 27.5 | -13.2 | 27.2 | -10.4 | 1.01 | 22.3% | 11 | 4 | 1 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $4,900 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 19.5 | 3.3 | 26.2 | 1.3 | 0.74 | 14.4% | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Marvin Williams | $5,100 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 19.4 | 2.3 | 26.4 | 3.9 | 0.74 | 12.5% | 9 | 9 | 16 |
| Dwight Howard | $8,800 | $7,500 | $14,500 | 34.1 | 5.2 | 29.8 | 3.7 | 1.14 | 19.9% | 5 | 14 | 7 |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 18.1 | -2.9 | 23.3 | -8.6 | 0.78 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeremy Lamb
Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (GPP)
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have been hanging around .500 for most of the season. Depending on where they are in the standings at the trade deadline, there is a chance that they could be buyers or sellers. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Hornets, who have been significantly worse defensively on the road this season. Even with Paul George status in doubt, the Thunder have an implied total of 106.5 points, which is the fourth highest on the board and nearly five points above their season average.
George said that he was hopeful to play tonight, but he didn’t go through shoot-around this morning. He was reportedly doing drills on the side, so at the very least he is nearing a return. If he is active (and we will know by lineup lock), he makes a tremendous tournament play. His price has come down across the industry and the fact that he has a questionable tag next to his name will naturally lower ownership. Russell Westbrook is an elite play either way, but would obviously see a nice boost in usage if George is ruled out.
Andre Roberson is also listed as questionable tonight. Alex Abrines and Raymond Felton could pick up significant minutes if both George and Roberson are ruled out. If George is ruled out and Roberson is active, Roberson would make for a nice vlaue play on DraftKings ($3,800). Carmelo Anthony viability is directly tied to George’s availability. Anthony hasn’t been great in his last two starts without George, but has taken 40 shot attempts during that stretch. Steven Adams is the best mid-range target at center. While Dwight Howard is a good defender, Adams will likely see minutes in the low to mid-30s and he’s not a center that is going to create his own shot anyway, which makes him fairly matchup-proof.
Notable Injuries
Paul George (Questionable)
Andre Roberson (Questionable)
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 101.8 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 4.7 (2 of 12)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,200 | $11,000 | $21,400 | 50.3 | 3.3 | 35.9 | 3.0 | 1.40 | 33.5% | 14 | 17 | 15 |
| Andre Roberson | $4,700 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 26.5 | 9.0 | 0.60 | 7.4% | 22 | 22 | 14 |
| Paul George | $7,800 | $8,000 | $14,900 | 39.1 | -15.8 | 37.1 | -0.6 | 1.05 | 23.4% | 22 | 27 | 7 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $7,100 | $6,700 | $13,600 | 31.9 | 0.0 | 32.7 | 2.1 | 0.98 | 23.4% | 18 | 11 | 13 |
| Steven Adams | $6,500 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 30.2 | 4.6 | 31.8 | 3.0 | 0.95 | 14.3% | 10 | 3 | 9 |
| Jerami Grant | $3,700 | $3,700 | $8,800 | 17.8 | -9.2 | 21.9 | -4.8 | 0.81 | 14.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George (if active), Carmelo Anthony (if George is out)
Secondary Plays – Andre Roberson (If George is out), Steven Adams
Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.0 |  | Vegas Total | 194.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.0 | Vegas Spread | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 96.5 | Implied Team Total | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -4.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Kelly Olynyk | Projected Starters | Tyreke Evans | Andrew Harrison | Dillon Brooks | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 1 | DvP | 9 | 14 | 13 | 23 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 12 | 8 | 27 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 20 | 5 | 14 | 13 | |
Miami Heat
The Heat have managed to stay afloat without Hassan Whiteside, winning five of their last ten games and staying in the thick of the playoff race in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately, they draw one of the worst possible matchups tonight, as they have to face the Grizzlies in Memphis. On the season, the Grizzlies are ranked dead last in pace of play and sixth in points allowed per game. The Heat come into the game as 1-point underdogs with an implied total of only 96.5 points.
Over the last four games, Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, and Tyler Johnson have all averaged between 27 and 28 minutes. If this is a trend moving forward, all three are going to be risky fantasy options. With a matchup against the Grizzlies, they are easy fades even in a small six game slate. The only two players that are even remotely on my radar here are James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk. Johnson has played at least 28 minutes in three of his last four games and is averaging 0.95 FP/min on the season. Power forward is the one position that the Grizzlies have struggled to defend. Olynyk is averaging 29 minutes and 27 fantasy points over his last four games. He has some appeal in large field tournaments at potentially sub-10% ownership.
Notable Injuries
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.2 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.5 (11 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -3.7 (9 of 12)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 95.9 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,500 | $6,200 | $13,700 | 29.4 | -3.1 | 31.9 | -4.3 | 0.92 | 23.9% | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| Dion Waiters | $5,100 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 23.7 | -6.8 | 30.9 | -2.6 | 0.77 | 23.3% | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Josh Richardson | $4,600 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 19.7 | 3.6 | 32.4 | -0.1 | 0.61 | 14.2% | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| James Johnson | $5,800 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 26.3 | -2.9 | 27.6 | 0.6 | 0.95 | 18.5% | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $6,100 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 20.0 | 6.9 | 20.8 | 8.8 | 0.96 | 16.9% | 8 | 1 | 16 |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 20.4 | 4.1 | 27.2 | -0.5 | 0.75 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – James Johnson (GPP)
Secondary Plays – James Johnson (Cash), Kelly Olynyk (GPP)
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are like a vase that you break and try to put back together with glue. They have been ravaged by injuries, but luckily two of the main pieces of the vase (Marc Gasol and Tyreke Evans) are still intact. Unfortunately, they are more glue than vase at this point, as they have dropped to 8-18 on the season. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Heat, who are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and 14th in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies have an implied total of 97.5 points, which is right around the league average.
There are basically only two players that deserve consideration from the Grizzlies tonight, but I’ll add a third into the mix for tournaments. Over his last three games, Andrew Harrison is averaging 28 minutes and 21 fantasy points per contest. At $3,500 on DraftKings, he offers decent value at PG/SG. Tyreke Evans is averaging 40 fantasy points over his last four games and draws a decent matchup against Goran Dragic, who has one of the worst DRPM grades of any point guard in the NBA. Evans’ matchup gets a small boost with Hassan Whiteside out, as a large part of Evans’ game is attacking the rim.
Marc Gasol has to be tired at this point. He is playing 35 minutes a night and is their best player on both ends of the floor. His price has come up across the industry, but he’s one of the best point-per-dollar options at center tonight. On the season, Miami is ranked 23rd in efficiency against the position and are also ranked 23rd in rebounding differential. I like Gasol’s chances in a matchup against Kelly Olynyk, although it may pull Gasol away from the rim at times on defense.
Notable Injuries
Brandan Wright (Out)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 98.2 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.5 (10 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (5 of 12)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreke Evans | $7,700 | $7,200 | $14,900 | 33.1 | 6.5 | 29.7 | 3.8 | 1.12 | 26.2% | 8 | 9 | 27 |
| Andrew Harrison | $4,000 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 17.5 | 8.0 | 0.72 | 17.1% | 16 | 14 | 20 |
| Dillon Brooks | $3,600 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 16.5 | -4.5 | 28.6 | -3.4 | 0.58 | 11.9% | 7 | 13 | 5 |
| JaMychal Green | $5,000 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 18.7 | -0.4 | 27.2 | 5.4 | 0.69 | 14.4% | 16 | 23 | 14 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,400 | $7,800 | $14,100 | 39.2 | -3.5 | 35.0 | 1.8 | 1.12 | 24.5% | 23 | 2 | 13 |
| Ben McLemore | $3,900 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 12.6 | 0.4 | 19.3 | -1.5 | 0.65 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Marc Gasol, Tyreke Evans (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Tyreke Evans (Cash), Andrew Harrison (GPP)
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.5 | Vegas Spread | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.0 | Implied Team Total | 94.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Marcus Smart | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 21 | DvP | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 12 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 8 | 25 | 22 | 27 | DRPM Rat. | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have won 22 of their last 25 games, but no longer own the best record in the NBA. That honor now belongs to the Rockets, who currently boast a 20-4 record. Tonight the Celtics head to Chicago to take on the Bulls. While this projects to be one of the slowest paced games on the schedule, we should still consider this a favorable matchup. On the season, the Bulls are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in rebounding differential. The big issue for the Celtics tonight it that they will be short-handed. Kyrie Irving and Marcus Morris have already been ruled out, while Al Horford is listed as questionable.
With Kyrie Irving out, Marcus Smart will likely draw the start at point guard. He put up a dud in his spot start last week, but immediately becomes one of the best value plays of the slate. On the season, Chicago is ranked 25th in efficiency and 23rd in DvP against point guards. Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier will also see a nice boost in both minutes and usage, which puts them on my radar in all formats. Of the two, I slightly prefer Terry Rozier, who could finally see minutes in the upper 20s.
With Marcus Morris out, this should open up a few more minutes for Jayson Tatum and Aron Baynes. Baynes has somewhat of a capped ceiling, but Tatum has some appeal in tournaments. He is averaging 33 fantasy points over his last four games and may take on a larger role in the offense with Irving out. Al Horford if currently listed as questionable. If he is ruled out, then we can basically stack the entire Celtics’ team. Horford and Irving average nearly 75 fantasy points per game combined this season. If Horford is active, he will become one of the top targets at center.
Notable Injuries
Kyrie Irving (Out)
Marcus Morris (Out)
Al Horford (Questionable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.9 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.0 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -4.9 (11 of 12)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | $5,600 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 24.1 | -10.2 | 30.2 | -2.7 | 0.80 | 18.4% | 25 | 23 | 10 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,500 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 26.2 | -7.1 | 31.4 | -3.3 | 0.83 | 18.2% | 24 | 20 | 8 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,300 | $6,000 | $13,000 | 26.8 | 0.8 | 30.7 | 2.1 | 0.87 | 15.4% | 23 | 22 | 25 |
| Al Horford | $7,500 | $7,300 | $14,800 | 34.6 | 4.4 | 32.7 | 1.4 | 1.06 | 17.4% | 24 | 20 | 22 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 15.4 | 0.0 | 17.8 | -1.4 | 0.87 | 14.2% | 20 | 21 | 27 |
| Daniel Theis | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 12.7 | 1.7 | 12.4 | 0.2 | 1.02 | 13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $4,000 | $4,100 | $8,100 | 20.2 | 2.1 | 23.3 | 1.2 | 0.87 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford (if active)
Secondary Plays – Aron Baynes, Jayson Tatum
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are finally healthy and are looking for their first three game winning streak of the season. The matchup against the Celtics looks awful on paper, but Chicago is only listed as 6.5-point underdogs, so Vegas is expecting this game to be competitive. From a fantasy standpoint, this isn’t the best matchup. On the season, Boston is ranked first in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Celtics will be short-handed, but the Bulls still have the lowest implied total on the board at 95.8 points.
Kris Dunn has always had a ton of talent and I love that we are finally starting to see what he is capable of in DFS. Over his last four games, he is averaging 35 minutes and 41 fantasy points per game. The Bulls have seemingly moved on from Jerami Grant, so we can expect big minutes from Dunn moving forward. His price is only going to increase from here, so this is one of our last chances to buy low, especially on DraftKings ($6,100). He’s a core play for me on DraftKings in both cash games and tournaments.
I typically try to avoid players facing the Celtics, but I expect this game to stay close. David Nwaba really played well before sustaining an injury that caused him to miss a few weeks of action. It appears that he is fully recovered and his minutes are starting to trend upward. In his last two games, he has played 32 and 30 minutes and has scored 31 and 33 fantasy points. He’s one of my favorite value plays for this six game slate. Lauri Markkanen draws the best matchup of the five starters and is only $5,200 on DraftKings. While I am a little worried that Nikola Mirotic will eventually cut into his playing time, we aren’t to that point quite yet.
Notable Injuries
None
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 96.9 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.8 (12 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (7 of 12)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.0 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $7,700 | $6,100 | $11,200 | 30.1 | 11.0 | 28.2 | 5.8 | 1.07 | 24.0% | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,600 | $5,100 | $10,400 | 27.0 | -0.5 | 34.3 | -0.5 | 0.79 | 18.5% | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,300 | $4,800 | $10,600 | 22.0 | -5.6 | 28.7 | -2.2 | 0.77 | 16.8% | 2 | 14 | 3 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,600 | $5,200 | $11,400 | 28.3 | 0.8 | 30.7 | 0.9 | 0.92 | 20.2% | 22 | 6 | 2 |
| Robin Lopez | $5,300 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 24.1 | 2.1 | 30.5 | 2.7 | 0.79 | 18.0% | 7 | 12 | 1 |
| Bobby Portis | $3,800 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 22.5 | -3.2 | 21.3 | -2.2 | 1.06 | 21.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nikola Mirotic | $4,500 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 17.1 | 0.0 | 17.5 | 0.0 | 0.98 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| David Nwaba | $4,500 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 20.6 | 2.6 | 22.5 | 2.8 | 0.92 | 13.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kris Dunn (DK), David Nwaba
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (FD), Lauri Markkanen (DK)
New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
| New Orleans Pelicans | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 226.0 |  | Vegas Total | 226.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 13.0 | Vegas Spread | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.5 | Implied Team Total | 119.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 15 | 17 | 10 | 15 | DvP | 18 | 25 | 25 | 29 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 21 | 12 | 27 | 1 | 4 | |
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are in a tough situation tonight. They are facing the Rockets (who have the best record in basketball) on the road and they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. This game has serious shootout potential, but a 13-point spread suggests that it could just as easily turn into a blowout. It’s not common knowledge that the Rockets have been stout defensively this season, but they are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pelicans have the fourth highest implied total of the slate, but it is nearly four points below their season average.
Rajon Rondo played a season-high 37 minutes last night against the Sixers. While that’s a concern in a game with such a large spread, Rondo was rested in the game against the Kings. He still offers great value on FanDuel ($5,600) if you expect the game to stay competitive. The formula for whether or not to play Jrue Holiday this season has been simple. I avoid him when everyone is healthy and play him if Anthony Davis and/or DeMarcus Cousins are out. Davis is currently listed as questionable, so I will take a wait and see approach with Holiday for now.
Jameer Nelson and Tony Allen have both been ruled out of tonight’s contest. This may not seem like major news, but E’Twaun Moore should be locked into 35 minutes of playing time, even if the game turns into a blowout. Moore grades out as one of the best shooting guard values and he’s had a surprisingly high floor recently, scoring at least 20 fantasy points in six straight games. DeMarcus Cousins has as much upside as any player on the schedule tonight. The good news is that due to foul trouble, he only logged 29 minutes last night. The bad news is that he could still be on the bench for the fourth quarter if the game gets out of hand.
Notable Injuries
Anthony Davis (Questionable)
Tony Allen (Out)
Jameer Nelson (Out)
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 110.2 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -3.7 (9 of 12)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.1 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $5,600 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 25.8 | 14.5 | 24.9 | 5.5 | 1.03 | 17.1% | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Jrue Holiday | $6,800 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 32.5 | 9.1 | 36.6 | 1.4 | 0.89 | 20.2% | 11 | 15 | 8 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 20.7 | 5.2 | 31.9 | 6.6 | 0.65 | 14.2% | 19 | 17 | 5 |
| Anthony Davis | $10,600 | $10,000 | $19,000 | 48.4 | -5.5 | 34.9 | 0.6 | 1.39 | 23.4% | 6 | 10 | 25 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $12,000 | $10,700 | $21,800 | 53.2 | 6.3 | 35.6 | -0.2 | 1.49 | 28.5% | 12 | 15 | 6 |
Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo (FD), E’Twaun Moore, Jrue Holiday (if Davis is out), DeMarcus Cousins (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo (DK), DeMarcus Cousins (Cash)
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have won nine games in a row and have the best record in the entire NBA. They come into tonight’s game as 13-point favorites against a Pelicans’ team that has really struggled defensively. This is a great spot for Houston, as they are in a pace-up game against a bad defense. On the season, the Pelicans have allowed the third most points per game this season. Houston has an implied total of 119.5 points, which is the highest implied total of the slate and five points above their season average.
There’s not an important player on the Rockets that I don’t have interest in tonight. There is a chance that this game could turn into a blowout, but I tend to factor that in more with the team that is the underdog. Chris Paul is finally playing a full complement of minutes and his price hasn’t had enough time to fully adjust. Paul is an elite play in all formats on DraftKings ($8,100) and firmly in the mix on FanDuel ($9,000). James Harden has played well next to Paul this season and there’s nothing to suggest that it won’t continue tonight against the Pelicans. If enough value opens up, Harden will become a viable play in all formats.
Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson are both low usage players, but they are very cheap tonight against New Orleans. Ariza is only $4,700 on DraftKings, while Anderson is only $4,000 on FanDuel. If Anthony Davis is active, I expect P.J. Tucker to see more minutes. He is their best defender at power forward and could crack the 30-minute mark for min-salary on FanDuel. Eric Gordon is also an intriguing play off the bench. While his production is down with Paul in the lineup, he should see around 30 minutes against a team that is ranked 29th against shooting guards this season. Clint Capela is one of the most productive per-minute players in the NBA and could be asked to play more minutes tonight since they’ll need his size against DeMarcus Cousins.
Notable Injuries
James Harden (Probable)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 119.5 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1 (1 of 12)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $9,000 | $8,100 | $14,900 | 39.5 | 2.3 | 30.2 | 3.3 | 1.31 | 22.5% | 22 | 18 | 21 |
| James Harden | $11,800 | $11,600 | $21,300 | 54.4 | 1.3 | 35.9 | -0.1 | 1.51 | 34.6% | 29 | 25 | 12 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,400 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 24.5 | -0.6 | 34.0 | -2.6 | 0.72 | 12.2% | 21 | 25 | 27 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,000 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 20.9 | -2.9 | 28.9 | -5.1 | 0.72 | 13.9% | 12 | 29 | 1 |
| Clint Capela | $7,200 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 34.4 | -2.6 | 25.2 | -2.7 | 1.36 | 17.1% | 19 | 7 | 4 |
| Eric Gordon | $4,700 | $4,700 | $10,500 | 25.8 | -5.1 | 31.5 | -1.8 | 0.82 | 23.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 18.2 | -5.3 | 27.2 | -3.1 | 0.67 | 8.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul, James Harden, Trevor Ariza (DK), Eric Gordon (GPP), Clint Capela (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon (Cash), Ryan Anderson (FD), Clint Capela (Cash), P.J. Tucker (FD)
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.5 |  | Vegas Total | 216.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.3 | Implied Team Total | 113.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Meyers Leonard | Projected Starters | Shaun Livingston | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | JaVale McGee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 6 | 20 | 24 | 17 | DvP | 8 | 12 | 16 | 1 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 16 | 19 | 1 | 26 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 16 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have lost four games in a row and head to a place where losing streaks tend to get extended. The Warriors are the defending champions and have been close to unbeatable at home over the last few years. The good news is that this is a pace-up game for Portland, so the upside is certainly present if they can keep the game close. On the season, Golden State is ranked 16th in points allowed per game. The Blazers have an implied total of 103.3 points, which is identical to their season average.
Damian Lillard is having a career season, but it’s worth noting that he has struggled against the Warriors in the last two seasons, scoring 37, 25, and 33 fantasy points in their last three meetings. Lillard is certainly viable in tournaments, but I prefer Chris Paul at a slightly cheaper price point. C.J. McCollum has back-to-back 40+ fantasy point outings against the Warriors and is significantly cheaper than Lillard if you want some Blazers’ exposure.
With Maurice Harkless out, we can expect big minutes for Evan Turner and Al-Farouq Aminu. Turner has been in awful form, but generally plays better in uptempo game environments. Aminu is one of the top values at power forward and arguably at any position. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight and his price is palatable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Even with Jusuf Nurkic out, I have no interest in the Blazers’ frontcourt outside of Aminu.
Notable Injuries
Jusuf Nurkic (Out)
Maurice Harkless (Out)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (7 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (4 of 12)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.6 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,300 | $9,200 | $16,900 | 43.1 | 1.1 | 37.0 | 3.1 | 1.16 | 29.1% | 10 | 16 | 4 |
| C.J. McCollum | $6,800 | $6,800 | $12,400 | 32.0 | -2.3 | 36.5 | 1.2 | 0.88 | 23.2% | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| Evan Turner | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 17.1 | -5.8 | 26.0 | -2.0 | 0.66 | 15.5% | 15 | 20 | 19 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $5,300 | $4,600 | $9,100 | 24.2 | -6.3 | 29.8 | -0.9 | 0.81 | 12.0% | 14 | 24 | 1 |
| Meyers Leonard | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 11.1 | 0.8 | 0.98 | 16.8% | 9 | 17 | 26 |
| Ed Davis | $4,200 | $4,200 | $8,700 | 16.5 | -6.5 | 17.2 | -7.0 | 0.96 | 10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu
Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard, Evan Turner
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have won eight of their last ten games and actually lost ground on the Rockets during that stretch. They are looking for their seventh win in a row tonight, as they square off against the Blazers. While this isn’t a great matchup on paper, the Warriors are matchup-proof, especially when playing at home. They are missing Stephen Curry and are still projected to score 113.3 points tonight.
Stephen Curry absence has opened up minutes for Shaun Livingston and Quinn Cook, but neither are appealing fantasy plays. They are both low-ceiling targets that don’t make sense for cash games or tournaments. Klay Thompson has basically been the exact same player throughout his career whether Curry plays or sits. If you like the matchup, feel free to fire up Thompson, but we shouldn’t be expecting a big boost in production due to Curry’s absence. Dollar for dollar, I’d rather play Andre Iguodala off the bench, who is averaging 23 fantasy points over his last four games.
The biggest beneficiary with Curry out is Kevin Durant, which has been evidenced by his last two games of 66 and 75 fantasy points. He’s a scary fade right now and you can argue that he’s the top overall play on the board. The Blazers don’t have great wing defenders and the offense is going to flow through Durant most of the night. Draymond Green has also seen a nice boost in production with Curry out, scoring at least 54 fantasy points in each of his last two games. He is dealing with a shoulder injury, but fully expected to play tonight.
Notable Injuries
Zaza Pachulia (Out)
Patrick McCaw (Questionable)
Draymond Green (Probable)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 117.2 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (2 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 (11 of 12)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.9 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Livingston | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 11.3 | -1.3 | 15.6 | -0.3 | 0.73 | 14.8% | 9 | 8 | 20 |
| Klay Thompson | $7,500 | $7,100 | $14,500 | 32.1 | -1.7 | 33.3 | 1.4 | 0.97 | 20.6% | 11 | 12 | 17 |
| Kevin Durant | $11,700 | $10,900 | $21,800 | 46.9 | 6.9 | 34.4 | 0.0 | 1.36 | 26.0% | 17 | 16 | 4 |
| Draymond Green | $8,500 | $7,400 | $14,500 | 36.0 | 9.3 | 32.2 | 4.0 | 1.12 | 15.3% | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| JaVale McGee | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 9.6 | 1.8 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 1.18 | 15.7% | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,600 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 18.2 | 4.6 | 26.3 | 2.0 | 0.69 | 11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |