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NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-20 02:35:48

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Indiana Pacers
washingtonnba Vegas Total 213.0 indiananba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 109.3
Pace +/- 1.1 Pace +/- 0.1
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Glenn Robinson Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 19 20 11 24 17 DvP 10 7 7 18 16
DRPM 0.23 -1.39 -0.63 0.74 1.66 DRPM -0.50 -1.35 1.39 1.13 1.68

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights. Despite winning five of their last six games, they are listed as 5.5-point underdogs tonight against the Pacers. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as Indiana is ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Washington comes into the game with an implied total of 103.8 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate, but 1.6 points below their season average. Ian Mahinmi has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, while Kelly Oubre and Jason Smith are both listed as questionable.

John Wall has been on a tear the last couple of week, scoring at least 47 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. He has the fourth highest true usage rate in the NBA (35.5%) and he draws a fair matchup against Jeff Teague and the Pacers, who are ranked 19th against point guards this season. Bradley Beal is coming off of a 41-point outing against the Clippers yesterday, but his price is expensive for a player that relies on scoring so heavily. Dollar for dollar, I slightly prefer Zach LaVine, who has consistently been playing minutes in the 40s. Otto Porter could make a great play if Kelly Oubre is unable to suit up. We’ve seen him play upwards of 40 minutes when needed and the Wizards don’t have anyone else that can defend Paul George. Even if Oubre and Jason Smith are active, Markieff Morris deserves consideration in all formats. He is averaging 34 fantasy points in his last three games and we love targeting bigs against the Pacers. Marcin Gortat may be asked to play 36-38 minutes again if Smith is unable to suit up. He is a safe cash game option with a high floor in this matchup against Indiana.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,900 $9,700 $13,400 1.24 36.2 -0.4 45.0 3.9 35.5% -0.7% 19 0.23
Bradley Beal $7,000 $6,800 $11,000 0.92 35.1 1.2 32.3 7.9 26.3% 0.7% 20 -1.39
Otto Porter $5,500 $5,600 $9,900 0.81 34.5 0.0 28.0 -2.6 14.8% -2.6% 11 -0.63
Markieff Morris $5,000 $5,200 $8,800 0.78 31.6 -6.1 24.7 9.3 20.4% 6.2% 24 0.74
Marcin Gortat $6,300 $6,000 $9,900 0.84 35.5 2.2 29.7 1.8 13.6% -0.4% 17 1.66
Kelly Oubre $4,000 $4,000 $7,000 0.67 18.7 18.3 12.6 8.9 14.1% -1.6% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat (if Smith is out), Otto Porter (if Oubre is out)

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat (if Smith is active), Otto Porter (if Oubre is active)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are 5-5 in their last ten games and are also .500 overall (14-14). They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wizards, are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The matchup is helped by the fact that Washington is playing their third game in four nights. Indiana is listed as a 5.5-point favorite with an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 5.1 points above their season average. Rodney Stuckey and Monta Ellis have both been ruled out of tonight’s contest.

Jeff Teague always gets lost in the mix at point guard. He is having a very nice season for the Pacers, averaging 32.5 fantasy points with a true usage rate of 26.4%. He has also taken advantage of the injuries to Rodney Stuckey and Monta Ellis, averaging 36.6 fantasy points in his last three games. Teague is far from a building block tonight, but you can certainly look his way in tournaments. In the last two game without Stuck and Ellis, Glenn Robinson is averaging 30 minutes and 20 fantasy points, while C.J. Miles is averaging 27 minutes and 15 fantasy points. I still view Robinson as the higher floor play for cash games and Miles as the higher ceiling play for tournaments. Paul George draws a difficult matchup against Otto Porter, but his stock is rising in an uptempo game that should feature little defense overall. Thaddeus Young production has been down the last three games, but he is averaging 35.9 minutes during that stretch. He is priced below $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Myles Turner is finally starting to play minutes in the low 30s each night and his production has been more consistent in the last couple of weeks. His matchup against Marcin Gortat isn’t ideal, but I do like his price point on DraftKings ($6,300).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,600 $7,000 $10,400 1.03 31.7 0.1 32.5 4.1 26.4% 2.9% 10 -0.50
Glenn Robinson $4,300 $4,400 $6,700 0.62 20.3 11.0 12.6 5.2 13.1% -2.1% 7 -1.35
Paul George $8,100 $8,100 $12,900 1.03 35.4 0.8 36.5 -1.8 26.7% 0.4% 7 1.39
Thaddeus Young $4,700 $4,800 $9,900 0.73 30.4 5.5 22.3 -2.9 15.9% -4.5% 18 1.13
Myles Turner $6,500 $6,300 $10,400 1.03 29.2 2.5 30.0 0.9 19.3% -1.6% 16 1.68
C.J. Miles $4,300 $4,200 $8,200 0.84 22.0 3.5 18.4 -3.1 18.7% -2.5% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – Myles Turner (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague, Paul George, Glenn Robinson (Cash), C.J. Miles (GPP), Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner (FD)

Atlanta Hawks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Oklahoma City Thunder
atlantanba Vegas Total 208.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 102.8 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- 2.2 Pace +/- 2.4
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Anthony Morrow Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 24 3 16 15 5 DvP 29 24 12 9 2
DRPM -0.51 -1.18 2.18 1.30 1.64 DRPM -2.29 -0.16 2.75 4.11 2.70

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are trying desperately to work their way out of their recent slump, but have lost seven of their last ten games and are below .500 on the season. Tonight they head to Oklahoma City for what should be a fast-paced game against the Thunder. Both of these teams are ranked inside the top ten in defensive efficiency, but they are also ranked inside the top six in pace of play. The Hawks have an implied total of 102.8 points, which is the seventh highest in the slight and nearly identical to their average on the season. This game is expected to stay close throughout, as the Hawks are listed as 3-point underdogs.

After scoring at least 34 fantasy points in five straight games, Dennis Schroder put up a dud against the Hornets at home. I’m willing to look past a single bad outing, especially given tonight’s matchup against the Thunder. Russell Westbrook has a DRPM (Defensive Real Plus-Minus) of -0.51 this season and the Thunder have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to point guards. Schroder has played at least 31 minutes in five of his last six games and should hit that mark again tonight. Tim Hardaway Jr. is coming off of a big game against the Hornets, but it sounds like he is heading back to the bench. He is still worth a look on FanDuel at a price of only $4,300, but his minutes aren’t as secure off the bench. Thabo Sefolosha is coming off of two bad fantasy outings, but he should see minutes in the upper 20s with the potential for more if they need his defense on Westbrook. Kent Bazemore is an intriguing buy-low candidate now that he is being inserted back into the starting lineup. Paul Millsap scored 40 fantasy points in his first meeting against the Thunder this season and is priced down on DraftKings ($7,500). Dwight Howard has three straight double-doubles, but I try to avoid centers facing the Thunder. I’d rather save some salary and go down to Marcin Gortat or Myles Turner at center.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,800 $6,900 $10,400 0.94 30.2 1.6 28.5 3.5 29.4% 1.3% 24 -0.51
Kent Bazemore $4,200 $4,500 $8,000 0.79 26.4 -4.1 20.7 -2.5 21.7% -0.6% 3 -1.18
Thabo Sefolosha $4,300 $4,600 $6,700 0.78 25.6 3.6 19.9 -0.4 14.2% -0.5% 16 2.18
Paul Millsap $8,000 $7,500 $12,900 1.07 32.9 -0.8 35.2 -1.5 24.4% -1.5% 15 1.30
Dwight Howard $7,900 $7,300 $12,500 1.17 29.2 3.4 34.1 7.0 19.8% -1.8% 5 1.64
Tim Hardaway Jr. $4,300 $4,700 $6,600 0.75 22.9 10.3 17.3 7.7 22.4% 0.1% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Paul Millsap (DK)

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard, Paul Millsap (FD), Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD), Thabo Sefolosha, Kent Bazemore

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder haven’t skipped a beat without Victor Oladipo. They have won seven of their last ten games and are 16-11 overall. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked fourth in pace of play and ninth in defensive efficiency. The over/under for this game is set at 208.5 points and the game is expected to stay close throughout. The Thunder have an implied total of 105.8 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and nearly identical to their season average. Oladipo has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and Anthony Morrow is expected to draw another start at shooting guard.

Russell Westbrook is coming off of a ridiculous stat line of 26 points, 11 rebounds, and 22 assists. Most point guards in the NBA would take those numbers over the course of a two-game stretch. He draws one of the best possible matchups for a point guard, as Dennis Schroder has a DRPM of -2.29 and the Hawks as a whole have allowed the second most fantasy points to point guards this season. Westbrook will likely see some Thabo Sefolosha defense as well, but I’m not passing on an opportunity to target Westbrook in a five-game slate. He is the top option on the board and I will do everything I necessary to squeeze him into my lineups. Anthony Morrow, Andre Roberson, and Jerami Grant have not made the most of their increased opportunities with Victor Oladipo out. All three are easy fades tonight against the Hawks. Steven Adams draws a difficult matchup against Dwight Howard down low, who has a DRPM of +2.70 this season. It’s Westbrook or bust tonight from OKC.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,500 $12,800 $16,600 1.62 35.2 -4.5 57.1 -8.7 45.1% -2.0% 29 -2.29
Anthony Morrow $3,500 $3,500 $6,500 0.56 16.8 6.3 9.4 1.6 16.0% -2.7% 24 -1.63
Andre Roberson $3,800 $4,100 $7,000 0.57 31.4 1.1 18.1 -3.7 10.3% -1.3% 12 2.75
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,200 $7,800 0.63 21.4 -1.4 13.4 2.3 14.6% 2.4% 9 4.11
Steven Adams $5,200 $5,100 $8,400 0.81 29.9 -2.3 24.3 1.7 15.9% 5.1% 2 2.70
Enes Kanter $5,000 $4,300 $8,800 1.14 19.1 -2.2 21.8 -1.3 25.2% 6.9% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – NONE

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Minnesota Timberwolves
phoenixnba Vegas Total 215.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 104.8 Team Total 110.3
Pace +/- -1.1 Pace +/- 4.6
Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Marquese Chriss Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 23 12 14 10 11 DvP 26 14 25 23 23
DRPM 0.16 -2.97 -2.90 2.52 -2.19 DRPM -0.44 -2.30 0.58 -0.19 1.99

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are finally playing with a healthy team. This is one of the few games that they have had all season with everyone healthy. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency. The Wolves do rebound the ball well, but that’s about it. The Suns come into the game as 5.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 104.8 points. The concern with Phoenix isn’t the matchup, it’s their rotation. Minutes were hard enough to predict when T.J. Warren was out and with him back, there may not be room for everyone to eat at the dinner table.

Eric Bledsoe has been the most consistent fantasy option on the Suns this season, which should tell you all you need to know about the reliability of this team. He is averaging 32.3 minutes and 35.1 fantasy points with a true usage rate of 29.2%. I always like targeting point guards against the Wolves, but Bledsoe’s price is high enough that I may fade him completely on FanDuel ($8,100). On DraftKings ($7,400), he is much more playable. Devin Booker has an extremely high usage rate and one of the best individual matchups in the slate – Zach LaVine has a DRPM of -2.97 this season. Booker is still a GPP flier though, given his inconsistent playing time and fantasy production. The Wolves play big more often than not, which could lead to a 30+ minute game for Tyson Chandler. He is averaging 26.5 fantasy points in his last three games and is a decent mid-range option at center. Marquese Chriss is averaging 28.7 minutes in his last three games. I’m not buying into him just yet, but will keep an eye on his playing time tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $8,100 $7,400 $11,200 1.09 32.3 0.9 35.1 -2.8 29.2% 0.6% 23 0.16
Devin Booker $5,700 $5,900 $9,400 0.79 33.2 1.9 26.1 1.1 26.9% 2.6% 12 -2.97
P.J. Tucker $4,200 $3,800 $8,000 0.61 26.1 8.0 16.0 0.0 11.8% -0.4% 14 -2.90
Marquese Chriss $3,800 $3,900 $6,800 0.73 17.1 11.6 12.5 9.4 19.0% -1.1% 10 2.52
Tyson Chandler $5,400 $5,200 $9,000 0.85 27.8 3.5 23.6 2.9 10.4% 0.0% 11 -2.19
Brandon Knight $4,400 $3,900 $7,800 0.81 24.1 -3.3 19.5 -2.8 26.8% -0.7% 12 N/A
Alex Len $4,800 $3,700 $7,900 0.98 22.8 -8.9 22.2 -2.8 16.9% 5.9% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (DK), Devin Booker (GPP), Tyson Chandler

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have to be considered one of the worst disappointing teams so far this season. They were primed to take a leap forward, but are 7-19 through their first 26 games. The good news is that they get to face a team in the Suns that has just as many losses this year. The Wolves are listed as 5.5-point favorites at home with an implied total of 110.3 points, which is the highest in the slate and 6.3 points above their season average. The Suns are basically the NBA’s version of Coors Field. They are ranked second in pace of play and 28th in points allowed per game.

When Tom Thibodeau was announced as the new Wolves’ coach, everyone in the DFS community was excited. We treat our player’s minutes like gold in DFS and Thibodeau plays his starters more minutes than any coach in the NBA. Over the last three games, all five starters are averaging at least 35.2 minutes. Add in a matchup against the Suns and we have ourselves a recipe for a team stack. I haven’t played Ricky Rubio very often this season, but I’m certainly looking his way on DraftKings ($5,400) tonight. The Suns are awful against point guards and his minutes are finally trending in the right direction. Zach LaVine is averaging 40.7 minutes in his last eight games, which is the highest of any player in the NBA during that stretch. I will gladly take my chances with anyone playing 40+ minutes against the Suns. Andrew Wiggins draws a fairly difficult matchup against P.J. Tucker, but he could also see upwards of 40 minutes tonight. Gorgui Dieng has the lowest usage rate of the five starters, but is in the mix with the other mid-range power forward options tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns draws the most difficult matchup of the starters, as Tyson Chandler has an elite DRPM of +1.99. While that’s a concern, some of that is negated by the fact that KAT averages 9.7 more fantasy points per game at home than he does on the road. All five starters are in play tonight for Minnesota and I’m actually considering a Wolves’ stack in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $6,000 $5,400 $8,500 0.74 31.2 4.8 23.0 5.8 17.1% 1.6% 26 -0.44
Zach LaVine $6,400 $6,800 $10,300 0.77 37.9 5.5 29.2 5.0 23.2% 1.5% 14 -2.30
Andrew Wiggins $6,300 $6,700 $10,500 0.82 36.7 4.5 30.3 5.0 27.2% -4.3% 25 0.58
Gorgui Dieng $5,500 $5,700 $10,100 0.81 31.6 3.6 25.6 -1.7 15.8% -3.0% 23 -0.19
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,400 $8,900 $13,600 1.14 35.4 5.0 40.4 9.0 27.5% 3.3% 23 1.99

Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio (DK), Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng (FD), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio (FD), Gorgui Dieng (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns (FD)

Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Chicago Bulls
detroitnba Vegas Total 195.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 96.5 Team Total 99.0
Pace +/- -1.4 Pace +/- -3.2
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 6 16 17 24 17 DvP 22 4 2 3 5
DRPM -0.35 0.40 1.31 2.00 0.80 DRPM -0.20 0.64 0.09 -0.32 2.67

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are coming off of two straight losses against the Hornets and the Pacers. They will look to bounce back tonight against the Bulls in Chicago in a game that features very little fantasy appeal. The Bulls are ranked sixth in points allowed per game and second in rebounding differential this season and the over/under is set at a meager 195.5 points. The Pistons have an implied total of only 96.5 points, which is the lowest in the slate and 2.4 points below their season average. Jon Leuer is listed as questionable for tonight’s game.

Reggie Jackson is coming off of his best fantasy outing of the season, scoring 36.6 fantasy points against Indiana. Stan Van Gundy said that he wants to keep Jackson between 28-29 minutes a game and so far, he has stuck to his word. With no minute upside, it does cap Jackson’s floor and ceiling in DFS. He does draw a favorable matchup against Rajon Rondo, but I’d rather take a chance on Ricky Rubio against the Suns at a similar price point. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could see minutes in the upper 30s tonight, especially if Jon Leuer is unable to suit up. This isn’t a great matchup for KCP though, and his price has jumped up across the industry. Marcus Morris has the lowest usage rate of the five starters, but could push for minutes in the upper 30s if Leuer is unable to suit up. The same can be said for Tobias Harris. Both players are decent fantasy options tonight, although neither stands out as an elite play in this matchup. Andre Drummond is an easy fade for me. Not only is he averaging 8.2 less fantasy points per game on the road this season, but the Bulls are the second best rebounding team in the NBA.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,900 $5,800 $9,900 0.89 25.9 1.9 23.1 4.5 31.5% -0.3% 6 -0.35
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,800 $5,300 $8,300 0.75 33.4 1.9 25.1 1.4 21.0% 1.7% 16 0.40
Marcus Morris $4,700 $5,200 $8,100 0.70 32.2 -0.3 22.5 -8.3 19.6% -4.2% 17 1.31
Tobias Harris $5,600 $5,500 $9,300 0.78 33.0 -2.7 25.7 -4.6 21.4% 0.0% 24 2.00
Andre Drummond $7,800 $7,700 $12,600 1.19 29.9 0.8 35.7 -10.0 22.2% -6.2% 17 0.80
Jon Leuer $4,800 $4,200 $7,100 0.82 26.8 4.3 22.0 10.4 17.2% 0.9% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have lost seven of their last ten games and have fallen back to .500 on the season. They come into tonight’s game as 2.5-point favorites against a Pistons’ team that is ranked third in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. This is far from an ideal matchup, as evidenced by the fact that the Bulls have the third lowest implied total in the slate at only 99 points. This game projects to be the slowest paced game of the night and the over/under is a full ten points lower than the next closest game.

Rajon Rondo minutes and fantasy production are both trending in the wrong direction, making him an easy fade tonight against Detroit. The Pistons have done a tremendous job against the other four positions on the floor, ranking fifth or better in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards, and centers. Jimmy Butler is the only option that really stands out here, but given his price and the expected pace, he is more of a GPP play than a cash game option. The Bulls’ bigs can also be avoided tonight, as Taj Gibson and Robin Lopez are both averaging fewer than 29 minutes per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $5,700 $5,600 $9,500 0.87 30.9 -3.1 26.8 -7.4 21.6% -0.3% 22 -0.20
Dwyane Wade $7,100 $6,600 $10,600 1.02 31.4 -1.5 32.1 -2.7 29.8% -2.0% 4 0.64
Jimmy Butler $8,500 $8,500 $13,100 1.13 36.3 -0.8 41.1 -4.9 29.1% -0.3% 2 0.09
Taj Gibson $5,100 $4,800 $8,900 0.87 28.2 -4.3 24.6 -5.4 19.1% 2.8% 3 -0.32
Robin Lopez $4,900 $4,600 $8,600 0.81 28.5 0.4 23.1 -2.8 16.2% -1.2% 5 2.67
Bobby Portis $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.78 12.5 8.6 9.8 4.6 17.9% 2.7% 3 N/A
Denzel Valentine $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.49 11.5 8.9 5.7 7.0 14.7% 4.5% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler

Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks Denver Nuggets
dallasnba Vegas Total 205.5 denvernba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Team Total 98.5 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- 2.2 Pace +/- -5.6
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Dorian Finney-Smith Harrison Barnes Salah Mejri Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Wilson Chandler Nikola Jokic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 27 29 9 12 8 DvP 1 13 5 7 12
DRPM -1.64 -0.67 -0.32 -0.70 1.58 DRPM -0.72 -0.31 0.16 -0.82 2.22

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have had a season to forget. If anyone has an idea on how to keep aging players from getting injured, they should go on Shark Tank immediately. Mark Cuban would invest as fast as humanly possible. Dallas has been dealing with injuries all season. Their talent was already lacking to begin with. They are currently tied with the Sixers for the worst record in the entire NBA. Tonight they head to Denver to take on a Nuggets’ team that has struggled defensively this season, ranking 26th in points allowed per game and 25th in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks’ implied total of 98.5 points may not seem like much, but it is actually 4.8 points above their season average.

Deron Williams has played at least 32 minutes in eight straight games. He may be a ticking time bomb in terms of an impending injury, but I will gladly take my chances with him against the Nuggets, who are ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. J.J. Barea could return tonight, but Williams should still see 32-35 minutes in an elite matchup against the likes of Emmanuel Mudiay and Jameer Nelson. Wesley Matthews is also a strong play here, although he has cooled off a bit in his last few games. While the Nuggets are ranked 29th against shooting guards this season, they finally have Gary Harris back in the lineup, who has historically been an excellent defender. Dorian Finney-Smith makes for a nice value play on DraftKings at only $3,600. He doesn’t have a ton of upside in terms of scoring, but he should benefit from the pace-up game against Denver. Harrison Barnes is an interesting play on FanDuel ($6,300) where we have to roster two small forwards.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Deron Williams $6,300 $5,900 $8,800 0.81 30.4 4.0 24.6 3.6 26.3% -1.3% 27 -1.64
Wesley Matthews $5,600 $5,600 $8,300 0.68 35.7 -0.6 24.2 -4.3 21.2% -3.0% 29 -0.67
Dorian Finney-Smith $4,000 $3,600 $6,500 0.52 21.8 5.6 11.3 3.8 12.7% 0.8% 9 -0.32
Harrison Barnes $6,300 $6,500 $10,300 0.81 36.5 -2.0 29.7 3.1 25.2% 1.2% 12 -0.70
Salah Mejri $3,900 $3,100 $6,900 0.82 13.8 10.0 11.3 5.6 9.5% -3.6% 8 1.58
Dwight Powell $4,100 $3,800 $7,600 0.81 21.0 0.2 17.1 -0.7 15.7% 1.8% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Deron Williams

Secondary Plays – Wesley Matthews, Dorian Finney-Smith (DK), Harrison Barnes (FD)

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have won two games in a row and are trying to make a push for that eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They should be able to pick up a win tonight at home against the short-handed Mavericks, who are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency. Even though this is a pace-down game for Denver, they have an implied total of 107 points, which is the third highest in the slate. The issue with the Nuggets is the same as it has always been: Mike Malone. His rotation is deep and inconsistent and we have to take everything that he says with a grain of salt.

Dollar for dollar, Gary Harris is the best value in this lineup. In his two games since returning from injury, he has scored 38 fantasy points in 32 minutes and 25 fantasy points in 30 minutes. With Harris and Will Barton playing big minutes, they have cut into the playing time of Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler. Chandler is still worth a look in tournaments, but Gallinari is an easy fade in all formats. The hot topic of the day will likely be Nikola Jokic. Mike Malone said that he wants to get Jokic close to 30 minutes a game. Since entering the starting lineup, Jokic has only played 19 and 20 minutes. Granted, he was productive in both, scoring 24 and 27 fantasy points, respectively. Everyone is going to say that we can’t trust bigs in Denver, but a closer look reveals that foul trouble was the reason for the limited playing time. Against the Blazers, Jokic was on pace for 15 first half minutes before getting into foul trouble in the second and third quarters. Against the Knicks, he was in foul trouble the entire game. Basically, if he can stay out of foul trouble tonight, I expect him to see 26-30 minutes. I absolutely love the spot for him, as he put up 49.2 fantasy points against the Mavericks last week.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Emmanuel Mudiay $5,000 $5,300 $9,100 0.78 29.6 -1.6 23.0 2.2 25.5% -1.0% 1 -0.72
Gary Harris $4,800 $5,000 $7,900 0.88 25.0 5.8 22.1 9.1 20.3% -3.4% 13 -0.31
Danilo Gallinari $5,800 $5,700 $10,900 0.74 34.6 -3.9 25.5 0.1 19.2% -0.1% 5 0.16
Wilson Chandler $5,800 $6,200 $10,400 0.93 30.8 -2.3 28.7 -10.3 24.0% -4.7% 7 -0.82
Nikola Jokic $5,900 $6,400 $8,600 1.07 23.5 -1.5 25.2 8.4 20.1% 4.0% 12 2.22
Jameer Nelson $4,100 $3,600 $7,600 0.70 26.1 -6.3 18.4 -8.6 20.7% 2.1% 1 N/A
Will Barton $5,300 $5,700 $8,700 0.78 31.0 -1.8 24.1 -2.4 21.8% -1.3% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic (FD & Rosters)

Secondary Plays – Nikola Jokic (DK), Wilson Chandler (GPP)

Rosters Value Plays of the Day

Position Player Rosters Salary
Point Guard Deron Williams $8,800
Shooting Guard Tim Hardaway Jr. $6,600
Small Forward Thabo Sefolosha $6,700
Power Forward Nikola Jokic $8,600
Center Marcin Gortat $9,900

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious