NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 20th - Page Two
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Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.5 | Vegas Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.0 | Implied Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 8 | 29 | 24 | 21 | 9 | DvP | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | |
| DRPM | -0.59 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.75 | 2.62 | DRPM | 0.60 | 1.36 | 1.11 | 0.68 | 1.69 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder still have a record below .500 overall, but their point differential suggests that improvement is coming. They have one of the best defenses in the NBA and they should only get better offensively. Tonight they draw an excellent matchup against the Pelicans, who are ranked seventh in pace of play and 27th in points allowed per game. The Thunder have an implied total of 108 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and five points above their season average.
Russell Westbrook doesn’t have the same ceiling as he did last year, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not relevant in daily fantasy. He is still averaging 45 fantasy points per game with a true usage rate of 32%. In a game that should be close and high-scoring, I’m going to have more shares of Westbrook than the field. In fact, I’m going to predict a triple-double and at least 5x production from him on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Even though Carmelo Anthony is significantly cheaper, I prefer Paul George over him. He has the better matchup, as he won’t have to deal with Anthony Davis on either end of the floor (at least that’s how I see the matchups playing out). George is an excellent play on Fanduel where we have to roster two small forwards. We could see a few extra minutes from Jerami Grant tonight, who has quietly played well all season. He is averaging 20 fantasy points per game on the year and 25 over his last three outings. I was a little worried about Steven Adams in his first game back from injury, but he played 34 minutes against the Spurs. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he could play 35+ minutes tonight. He’s a sneaky tournament play that will be under 10% owned.
Notable Injuries
None
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 102.9 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (4 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1 (2 of 22)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.6 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $9,900 | $10,500 | $21,500 | 45.4 | -2.2 | 34.3 | -0.2 | 1.32 | 31.8% | 50.5% | 8 | -0.59 |
| Andre Roberson | $3,800 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 14.1 | 1.4 | 22.7 | 1.2 | 0.62 | 8.8% | 49.6% | 29 | 0.36 |
| Paul George | $8,500 | $8,700 | $15,900 | 38.4 | 0.2 | 36.7 | 3.6 | 1.05 | 23.8% | 56.5% | 24 | 0.32 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,700 | $6,900 | $12,900 | 33.2 | -0.8 | 32.0 | -1.5 | 1.04 | 24.4% | 54.0% | 21 | 0.75 |
| Steven Adams | $6,200 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 30.6 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 3.5 | 0.99 | 13.1% | 67.5% | 9 | 2.62 |
| Jerami Grant | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 20.6 | 4.5 | 24.0 | 3.5 | 0.86 | 14.6% | 57.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George (FD)
Secondary Plays – Paul George (DK), Carmelo Anthony, Jerami Grant, Steven Adams
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. They push the pace, they don’t play very much defense, and they are talented enough to keep most games competitive. This is exactly the type of game environment that we are looking for. The issue here is their matchup against the Thunder, who are ranked second in points allowed per game and third in defensive efficiency. The Pelicans’ implied total is nearly three points below their season average.
Rajon Rondo played 25 minutes and scored 23 fantasy points the other night against the Nuggets. He is still dirt cheap across the industry and could see his playing time increased tonight. He’s one of my favorite value plays in a slate that seems to feature more options at the top than it does at the bottom. Jrue Holiday is cheap and should play 35 minutes, but his usage was already low before Rondo came back from his injury. I will continue to take and wait and see approach with Holiday.
Anthony Davis is expected to play tonight and is priced under $10,000 on DraftKings. With DeMarcus Cousins battling down low with Steven Adams, this sets up as a perfect spot for Davis. I like his matchups against the likes of Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, and Jerami Grant. Cousins is also viable, but it’s hard to justify playing them both against an elite defense.
Notable Injuries
Anthony Davis (Probable)
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 108.4 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.9 (17 of 22)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 1.07 | 18.0% | 60.0% | 2 | 0.60 |
| Jrue Holiday | $6,300 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 31.4 | -0.4 | 36.9 | -1.4 | 0.85 | 19.0% | 51.7% | 2 | 1.36 |
| Dante Cunningham | $3,200 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 13.6 | -1.1 | 25.3 | -1.1 | 0.54 | 10.1% | 45.3% | 2 | 1.11 |
| Anthony Davis | $10,800 | $9,800 | $19,800 | 51.1 | -13.0 | 35.9 | -4.9 | 1.42 | 22.9% | 64.7% | 10 | 0.68 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $11,500 | $10,900 | $19,600 | 55.6 | -12.5 | 36.8 | -6.5 | 1.51 | 28.8% | 58.9% | 10 | 1.69 |
Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo, Anthony Davis (DK)
Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (FD), Jrue Holiday, DeMarcus Cousins
Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.8 | Implied Team Total | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Khris Middleton | Tony Snell | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 24 | DvP | 13 | 4 | 30 | 6 | 6 | |
| DRPM | -1.07 | -0.34 | -1.31 | 1.04 | 1.33 | DRPM | -0.44 | -0.34 | 1.91 | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards draw a pace-down matchup against the Bucks on the road in Milwaukee. This is far from an elite matchup, especially since Washington may be without their star point guard. The Wizards come into the game as sizable underdogs with an implied total of only 101.8 points. Not only is their implied total the seventh lowest of the slate, but it’s also six points below their season average.
John Wall missed yesterday’s game with a knee injury and is shaping up to be a game-time decision tonight. If he is active, I will be avoiding the Wizards’ guards completely. If Wall is out, Tim Frazier would become a very interesting value in all formats. Bradley Beal would see a nice bump in usage and would become viable in tournaments. Otto Porter could also see a small usage boost, but he’s going to have the tough task of defending Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The best way to attack Milwaukee is in the paint. They are ranked 19th against power forwards, 24th against centers, and 25th in rebounding differential. Markieff Morris has slowly seen his minutes increase and is a decent tournament play. Marcin Gortat has been quiet over the last few weeks, but he has a great matchup and is coming off of a 40 fantasy point outing against the Raptors.
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Questionable)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 108.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (16 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -6.3 (21 of 22)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,500 | $9,000 | $18,600 | 42.0 | -7.3 | 34.1 | 2.4 | 1.23 | 28.6% | 54.3% | 17 | -1.07 |
| Bradley Beal | $7,900 | $8,000 | $14,700 | 37.5 | 1.4 | 35.0 | 3.5 | 1.07 | 25.9% | 59.3% | 3 | -0.34 |
| Otto Porter | $6,500 | $6,200 | $12,100 | 32.5 | -8.5 | 33.1 | 2.0 | 0.98 | 16.1% | 67.4% | 4 | -1.31 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,900 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 18.1 | 1.3 | 21.0 | 3.2 | 0.86 | 18.9% | 55.4% | 19 | 1.04 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,600 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 25.7 | 1.0 | 30.3 | -0.3 | 0.85 | 13.2% | 59.6% | 24 | 1.33 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,200 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 21.8 | -9.3 | 28.7 | -4.7 | 0.76 | 14.5% | 57.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Tim Frazier | $3,100 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 14.0 | -1.9 | 16.9 | 3.3 | 0.83 | 14.9% | 46.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tim Frazier (if Wall is out)
Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wizards at home. This is a pace-up game against a mediocre defense. Milwaukee comes into the game with an implied total of 106.8 points, which is the seventh highest on the board and 4.5 points above their season average. The game does have a fairly high spread, so I’ll have a little more faith in the Wizards keeping this game close if John Wall is active.
Eric Bledsoe has played well on his new team, but he isn’t seeing 35 minutes a game. He is averaging 27 over his last three games. There’s a chance that he could see 30+ tonight if the game stays close, so I’ll have a share or two in tournaments. Khris Middleton is one of my favorite plays at any position. He is averaging 37 minutes per game this season, he has a high usage rate (23%), and the Wizards have struggled with talented wing players.
Giannis Antetokounmpo could be a nice pivot off of LeBron James in tournaments. If there is going to be a big gap in ownership, I have no problem being overweight compared to the field when it comes to Giannis. This is a good spot for him, he’s playing at home, and the Bucks have a high implied total. John Henson has played well recently, but the Wizards have been tough on opposing centers.
Notable Injuries
Mirza Teletovic (Out)
Matthew Dellavedova (Out)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.3 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (7 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (3 of 22)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $6,300 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 27.7 | 3.5 | 27.7 | -1.5 | 1.00 | 25.5% | 48.3% | 13 | -0.44 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,100 | $6,800 | $12,200 | 34.3 | -1.3 | 37.0 | -0.1 | 0.93 | 22.8% | 51.9% | 4 | -0.34 |
| Tony Snell | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 17.3 | 1.8 | 32.7 | 1.6 | 0.53 | 9.3% | 69.5% | 30 | 1.91 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $12,000 | $11,500 | $20,500 | 56.5 | -3.3 | 37.8 | 1.7 | 1.49 | 29.5% | 63.2% | 6 | 1.00 |
| John Henson | $5,200 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 21.1 | 3.2 | 22.2 | 2.2 | 0.95 | 12.1% | 56.0% | 6 | 0.60 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,200 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 25.0 | -9.6 | 31.9 | -5.8 | 0.78 | 18.5% | 60.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (Cash), Eric Bledsoe
Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.0 |  | Vegas Total | 194.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.0 | Implied Team Total | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Maurice Harkless | Caleb Swanigan | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Mario Chalmers | Dillon Brooks | Chandler Parsons | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 11 | DvP | 6 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 5 | |
| DRPM | 0.95 | 1.28 | 0.17 | 0.44 | 1.06 | DRPM | -0.34 | -0.53 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 1.61 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers and Grizzlies are two of the best defensive teams in basketball, which doesn’t bode too well for the fantasy production in this game. On the season, Memphis is ranked 28th in pace of play and seventh in points allowed per game. The Blazers have an implied total of only 98 points, which is the fourth lowest on the board and five points below their season average.
I’m going to make the analysis for the Blazers short and sweet — Damian Lillard is the only player that I am considering from Portland. He is underpriced on DraftKings ($8,300) and he benefits from Mike Conley being out. Mario Chalmers isn’t a bad defender by any means, but I like Lillard’s chances at his price point. The rest of the Blazers can be avoided in a difficult matchup against Memphis.
Notable Injuries
Al-Farouq Aminu (Out)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 103.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.0 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -5.0 (20 of 22)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,200 | $8,300 | $15,300 | 43.2 | -0.8 | 36.1 | 0.0 | 1.20 | 30.0% | 55.7% | 19 | 0.95 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,000 | $6,900 | $12,900 | 34.1 | 2.6 | 36.0 | 0.9 | 0.95 | 23.7% | 59.2% | 11 | 1.28 |
| Maurice Harkless | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 16.7 | -6.5 | 27.4 | -3.8 | 0.61 | 10.7% | 49.5% | 3 | 0.17 |
| Caleb Swanigan | $3,000 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 8.6 | -5.7 | 10.4 | -4.8 | 0.83 | 16.5% | 40.0% | 7 | 0.44 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $7,300 | $6,700 | $12,800 | 28.6 | -3.4 | 27.4 | 0.6 | 1.04 | 24.1% | 50.0% | 11 | 1.06 |
| Ed Davis | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 18.1 | -4.6 | 19.2 | 0.7 | 0.94 | 11.3% | 51.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Evan Turner | $4,000 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 19.8 | -13.3 | 27.3 | -7.4 | 0.73 | 16.2% | 50.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard (DK)
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies would typically be an easy fade in a difficult matchup against the Blazers, but injuries have really opened the door for a few plays. We’ll get to those here in a minute. As far as the actual matchup, the Blazers are ranked 23rd in pace of play, second in points allowed per game, and first in rebounding differential. The Grizzlies have an implied total of only 96 points, which is the second lowest on the board and five points below their season average.
Mike Conley is going to be out for the foreseeable future, which has made Mario Chalmers and Tyreke Evans become core plays in their last few games. Evans is currently listed as questionable. If he is active, I will continue to fire him up in tournaments and potentially even cash games. If Evans is ruled, Chalmers becomes an auto play in cash games, even though his price has come up across the industry. Depending on the availability of Evans, I may also have some interest in Dillon Brooks and Chandler Parsons as cheap punt plays.
Even though Jusuf Nurkic is one of the best low post defenders in basketball, Marc Gasol is one of my top targets in tonight’s slate. His usage is up without Conley on the floor, he can rebound, he can pass, and he can rack up blocks and steals. He also has 35+ minute upside, which can’t be said for most centers. Even though this should be a low scoring, defensive battle, the fantasy production is so condensed on Memphis right now that we can afford to target a few of their players.
Notable Injuries
Mike Conley (Out)
Brandan Wright (Out)
Tyreke Evans (Questionable)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 100.7 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.0 (21 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -4.7 (19 of 22)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.5 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.5 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Chalmers | $5,400 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 19.5 | 7.2 | 23.7 | 4.1 | 0.82 | 17.9% | 46.6% | 6 | -0.34 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,400 | $4,100 | $7,900 | 20.0 | 2.6 | 29.3 | -0.9 | 0.68 | 13.5% | 54.2% | 6 | -0.53 |
| Chandler Parsons | $4,200 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 16.1 | 0.8 | 19.6 | 4.3 | 0.82 | 15.1% | 66.6% | 10 | 0.61 |
| JaMychal Green | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 14.8 | 5.5 | 0.81 | 14.8% | 77.6% | 1 | 0.59 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,200 | $8,100 | $14,700 | 40.1 | 6.4 | 34.2 | 1.2 | 1.17 | 24.9% | 55.7% | 5 | 1.61 |
| Tyreke Evans | $7,500 | $7,300 | $13,300 | 31.1 | 3.0 | 27.8 | 2.3 | 1.12 | 25.2% | 62.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Mario Chalmers, Marc Gasol, Tyreke Evans (if active)
Secondary Plays – Dillon Brooks, Chandler Parsons
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196.5 |  | Vegas Total | 196.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.0 | Vegas Spread | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.8 | Implied Team Total | 94.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Marcus Morris | Al Horford | Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 23 | 9 | 23 | 20 | DvP | 4 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 3 | |
| DRPM | -2.03 | -2.07 | -1.68 | N/A | -0.29 | DRPM | 0.51 | 1.20 | 1.02 | 0.35 | 2.48 | |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have won 15 games in a row. They have the best record in the entire NBA and are like a freight train that can’t be stopped. Tonight they head to Dallas to take on a Mavericks’ team that is ranked 27th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential. We shouldn’t be too concerned about the slow pace of the Mavericks because Boston plays at an even slower pace. The Celtics have an implied total of 101.8 points, which is close to their season average.
There are a lot of players that I like from Boston, but none that I really love in an 11 game slate. Kyrie Irving continues to play well on both ends of the floor, but he hasn’t been the fantasy basketball god that we were expecting him to be. He’s bought into this team and clearly, it has worked. Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum should all see close to 30 minutes and are serviceable plays. I’d like to use Marcus Morris here, but he has yet to play more than 26 minutes this season. Al Horford is showing up highly in my model thanks to a great matchup, but there are so many great center plays tonight.
Notable Injuries
None
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 102.5 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (16 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (11 of 22)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,500 | $8,500 | $15,900 | 37.1 | 1.2 | 31.1 | 0.3 | 1.19 | 28.5% | 54.0% | 22 | -2.03 |
| Jaylen Brown | $6,500 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 28.4 | 7.2 | 32.3 | 1.4 | 0.88 | 19.0% | 53.6% | 23 | -2.07 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,700 | $6,000 | $13,400 | 26.5 | 4.3 | 29.8 | -1.1 | 0.89 | 16.0% | 63.4% | 9 | -1.68 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,800 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 23.7 | 3.6 | 23.4 | 2.0 | 1.01 | 20.9% | 58.3% | 23 | N/A |
| Al Horford | $7,200 | $7,600 | $13,900 | 33.1 | -4.8 | 32.2 | 0.5 | 1.03 | 17.6% | 67.9% | 20 | -0.29 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,400 | $5,500 | $10,900 | 25.7 | -8.2 | 30.4 | 0.3 | 0.84 | 19.2% | 40.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Al Horford
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are not a team that I have targeted heavily this season and that’s not about to change in a matchup against the Celtics. On the season, Boston is ranked 20th in pace of play, first in points allowed per game, and second in rebounding differential. The Mavericks have an implied total of only 94.8 points, which is the lowest of the slate and four points below their season average.
Seeing as how this is such a big slate, we shouldn’t go out of our way to force any Mavericks into our lineups. In fact, there are only two that I have any interest in at all. The Celtics have been tough on point guards, but Dennis Smith is cheap and has scored at least 31 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. Harrison Barnes also has some appeal on DraftKings ($5,800). His shot volume could make up for the poor matchup.
Notable Injuries
Dorian Finney-Smith (Out)
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 98.9 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 94.8 (22 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -4.2 (18 of 22)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 94.4 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.9 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.6 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $6,300 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 26.4 | -4.3 | 28.8 | -0.4 | 0.92 | 26.9% | 48.2% | 4 | 0.51 |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,200 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 22.4 | 3.6 | 34.5 | 0.4 | 0.65 | 15.5% | 50.4% | 1 | 1.20 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,900 | $5,800 | $12,900 | 30.2 | -0.2 | 35.2 | -0.5 | 0.86 | 21.4% | 53.8% | 16 | 1.02 |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,000 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 7.9 | -2.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 0.61 | 11.7% | 56.3% | 4 | 0.35 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $4,700 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 20.8 | 5.6 | 24.3 | 1.8 | 0.86 | 18.3% | 51.4% | 3 | 2.48 |
| J.J. Barea | $4,700 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 22.1 | 2.6 | 22.1 | 1.5 | 1.00 | 26.1% | 54.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dennis Smith, Harrison Barnes (DK)
Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET
| Atlanta Hawks | San Antonio Spurs | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.5 |  | Vegas Total | 202.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.5 | Vegas Spread | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 96.5 | Implied Team Total | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Luke Babbitt | Dewayne Dedmon | Projected Starters | Patty Mills | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 13 | 23 | 14 | 7 | DvP | 18 | 30 | 20 | 25 | 19 | |
| DRPM | -1.54 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 0.78 | 1.93 | DRPM | -2.80 | 0.53 | -0.05 | -0.09 | 0.91 | |
Atlanta Hawks
Notable Injuries
We now head to San Antonio for one of the ugliest games of the slate. The Hawks have lost eight of their last ten games and have the worst record in the Eastern Conference. To make matters worse, they are playing on the road in a potential blowout against an elite defense. On the season, the Spurs are ranked dead last in pace of play, fourth in points allowed per game, and fifth in rebounding differential. Atlanta’s implied total is seven points below their season average. I’d like to go into more depth, but there isn’t a single play that I have on my radar from the Hawks. We can afford to be picky in big slates and that’s exactly what I plan to be tonight. This game could easily be over by halftime.
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.9 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.5 (20 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -7.4 (22 of 22)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.9 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,100 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 34.3 | -3.3 | 32.4 | -0.8 | 1.06 | 28.8% | 52.5% | 1 | -1.54 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,600 | $4,900 | $10,900 | 29.3 | 3.1 | 28.9 | -1.0 | 1.02 | 21.0% | 51.4% | 13 | 0.51 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,800 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 27.1 | 2.6 | 31.6 | 0.6 | 0.86 | 17.1% | 52.1% | 23 | 0.70 |
| Luke Babbitt | $3,300 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 20.4 | 1.6 | 0.67 | 13.4% | 65.4% | 14 | 0.78 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $5,500 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 24.3 | 6.1 | 23.9 | -4.2 | 1.02 | 14.5% | 66.5% | 7 | 1.93 |
| John Collins | $5,000 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 23.4 | -0.4 | 21.3 | 1.7 | 1.10 | 18.8% | 56.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
San Antonio Spurs
The good news is that the Spurs don’t play again until Wednesday. The bad news is that their starters will still get rested early if this game gets out of hand. While I don’t mind a matchup against the Hawks, I am worried about a blowout. We’ve seen the Hawks play some awful basketball at times this season. With that said, the Spurs will be low owned and they do have an implied total of 106 points.
Patty Mills has been a nice source of value since entering the starting lineup. He should see 26-28 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Hawks. Dennis Schroder has one of the worst defensive grades in basketball and the Hawks have struggled against point guards for years. Outside of Mills, there isn’t a lot to love here. Rudy Gay and Kyle Anderson are both decent values at small forward, but I have a hard time clicking their names in an 11 game slate. LaMarcus Aldridge is a bit too expensive and Pau Gasol could see his minutes limited if the game is in hand.
Notable Injuries
None
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.6 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.4 (4 of 22)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patty Mills | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 18.4 | 8.3 | 26.1 | 4.5 | 0.71 | 18.3% | 49.0% | 18 | -2.80 |
| Danny Green | $5,200 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 23.5 | 4.0 | 29.4 | 1.4 | 0.80 | 16.3% | 53.5% | 30 | 0.53 |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,200 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 24.2 | 0.0 | 27.2 | 3.0 | 0.89 | 13.9% | 54.8% | 20 | -0.05 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,600 | $8,200 | $15,400 | 40.2 | -1.6 | 32.8 | 0.3 | 1.23 | 26.7% | 56.5% | 25 | -0.09 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,200 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 29.2 | -3.3 | 25.4 | 1.8 | 1.15 | 18.0% | 57.9% | 19 | 0.91 |
| Rudy Gay | $4,800 | $5,400 | $12,000 | 23.8 | -8.4 | 22.3 | -3.8 | 1.07 | 22.3% | 54.5% | N/A | N/A |