NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-11-21 01:33:38

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Detroit Pistons
			Vegas Total		215.5					Vegas Total		215.5
			Vegas Spread		-2.0					Vegas Spread		2.0
			Implied Team Total		108.8					Implied Team Total		106.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.1					Pace Projection +/-		0.6
Projected Starters	Jose Calderon	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Jae Crowder	Kevin Love		Projected Starters	Reggie Jackson	Avery Bradley	Stanley Johnson	Tobias Harris	Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	5	22	25	8	8		DvP	25	27	19	18	22
DRPM	-0.68	-1.30	0.60	-1.35	1.62		DRPM	-0.29	-1.42	-0.95	-0.60	0.07

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have been one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule this season. They have struggled defensively and they have been involved in a lot of close games. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pistons, who are ranked 13th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Cleveland has an implied total of 108.8 points, which is slightly below their season average.

The Cavaliers start and end with LeBron James. He has shouldered the load offensively this season and that doesn’t appear to be changing anytime soon. He has an elite usage rate and even though this is a pace-down spot for Cleveland, his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet puts him in play in all formats. Dwyane Wade will pop every now and then, but he’s not really the type of player that I’m looking to target in an 11 game slate. The same goes for Jae Crowder and Jeff Green, although they could both see a few extra minutes with Iman Shumpert out.

Kevin Love is an intriguing tournament play against Andre Drummond. While the Pistons have been tough on opposing centers and are a good rebounding team, Love isn’t your prototypical center. He is going to be a tough cover for Drummond on the perimeter. He’ll also spend a lot of time under the basket on defense, which certainly doesn’t hurt his rebounding potential.

Notable Injuries

Tristan Thompson (Out)
Iman Shumpert (Out)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.6 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (3 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (15 of 22)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are off to a tremendous start this season. While I expected a slight drop off from Cleveland, I didn’t expect Detroit to have a significantly better record through the first month of play. In terms of their matchup tonight, there are few that are more exploitable than the Cavaliers. On the season, they are ranked ninth in pace of play and dead last in defensive efficiency. Detroit has an implied total of 106.8 points, which is the sevent highest on the board.

Reggie Jackson has been a good play at times this season, but he’s never really been an elite option in big slates. There are a lot of point guards available tonight, which makes Jackson a tough sell since his minutes are always limited. I do love the matchup against Cleveland, but will only be targeting him in tournaments. Avery Bradley has been in good form over his last few games, averaging over 30 fantasy points per contest. His price has come up across the industry, but he’s viable as a low-owned tournament play.

The only other play of note here is Andre Drummond, who is having the best season of his career. He is averaging 1.30 FP/min and should be able to dominate against an under-sized and under-manned Cavaliers’ frontcourt. If he stays out of foul trouble, Drummond has 20 rebound type of upside tonight. The fact that the game is being played in Detroit is icing on the cake, as his splits at home have been solid throughout his career.

Notable Injuries

Jon Leuer (Doubtful)

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 105.0 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (7 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (7 of 22)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.2 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.1 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (GPP), Avery Bradley (GPP), Tobias Harris

Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total		219.0					Vegas Total		219.0
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		107.8					Implied Team Total		111.3
			Pace Projection +/-		2.1					Pace Projection +/-		0.4
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner		Projected Starters	Elfrid Payton	Evan Fournier	Terrence Ross	Aaron Gordon	Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	26	21	12	28	17		DvP	15	15	7	26	29
DRPM	-0.58	-0.59	0.48	-0.42	1.68		DRPM	-0.39	-0.59	-0.95	0.63	0.79

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers like to push the pace and the Magic don’t mind getting into track meets, especially at home. This game has shootout potential, as evidenced by the 220.5 point total. The fact that the spread is only 3.5 points makes it even better. The Magic have not fared well defensively this season and the Pacers come into the game with an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the sixth highest on the board.

Darren Collison has gone from being a consistent, high-floor, low-ceiling type of play to one that has a low floor and a high ceiling. The Magic have struggled to contain point guards for as long as I can remember and Collison is still priced under $6,000 on FanDuel. Victor Oladipo has a once-removed revenge game against the team that drafted him and eventually traded him to Oklahoma City. At his price point, I don’t expect him to be very popular, but I will have some shares in tournaments. This is the perfect type of game environment for his skill set.

The Pacers’ frontcourt has been an easy situation to avoid now that everyone is healthy. Thaddeus Young, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner all eat into each other’s minutes, which makes them tough players to trust in DFS. The matchup against the Magic is elite (29th in rebounding differential), but I wouldn’t look to the Pacers’ bigs in anything other than a tournament. Bojan Bogdanovic is a decent value if you need a cheap small forward.

Notable Injuries

None

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.1 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (6 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (12 of 22)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.1 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – Darren Collison (FD), Victor Oladipo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (DK), Victor Oladipo (Cash), Myles Turner (GPP)

Orlando Magic

The Magic are looking to get above .500 on the season. They currently sit at 8-8 and are right in the mix for one of the last few spots in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked 12th in pace of play and 23rd in points allowed per game. Orlando has an implied total of 111.3 points, which is the highest of the slate and four points above their season average.

Elfrid Payton has yet to play more than 30 minutes since coming back from injury and he has yet to top 22 fantasy points. I’ll wait until he sees a full complement of minutes to use him in cash, but he’s an intriguing tournament play in an uptempo game against the Pacers. Evan Fournier has been quiet in his last few games and his price hasn’t come down enough for his recent level of production. Terrence Ross is the starter in name, but Jonathon Simmons is the small forward to target from Orlando. He has some appeal on FanDuel where we have to roster two players at his position.

The best way to attack the Pacers this season has been down low. They are ranked 26th against power forwards and 29th against centers. They are also a below-average rebounding team, so we should have plenty of interest in both Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic. Gordon is viable on all sites, while I see Vucevic as more of a DraftKings’ play, where we have the option to roster two centers by using the UTIL.

Notable Injuries

Jonathan Isaac (Out)

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 107.3 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (1 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.0 (5 of 22)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic (DK)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Jonathon Simmons (FD), Nikola Vucevic (FD)

Utah Jazz at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		211.5					Vegas Total		211.5
			Vegas Spread		7.0					Vegas Spread		-7.0
			Implied Team Total		102.3					Implied Team Total		109.3
			Pace Projection +/-		4.7					Pace Projection +/-		-2.5
Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Jonas Jerebko	Derrick Favors		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Dario Saric	Robert Covington	Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	14	28	26	16	27		DvP	3	8	11	9	2
DRPM	1.49	-0.49	-1.09	1.76	2.95		DRPM	-0.46	-0.64	1.02	-0.12	1.28

Utah Jazz

The Jazz have lost seven of their last ten games and haven’t been nearly as effective on the defensive end of the floor without Rudy Gobert. They draw a pace-up matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked fourth in pace of play and 26th in points allowed per game. The Jazz are 7-point underdogs here, but they have an implied total of 102.3 points, which is slightly above their season average.

Ricky Rubio hasn’t looked right in the last couple of weeks. While I like targeting point guards against Philadelphia, I’d rather use Donovan Mitchell, who has more minute upside and who has a higher usage rate. Mitchell is averaging 33 minutes and 31 fantasy points in his last three games. I always have a hard time deciding what to do with Joe Ingles and Rodney Hood. Ingles has the higher floor (better for cash), while Hood has the higher ceiling (better for tournaments). However, I don’t see either as elite plays tonight.

Derrick Favors continues to shine without Rudy Gobert in the lineup. His usage, minutes, and fantasy production are all up since Gobert went down with his injury. Over the last three games, Favors is averaging over 36 fantasy points. While the Sixers have struggled against centers, Joel Embiid has the best DRPM of any player in basketball this season. For that reason alone, Favors likely won’t make my core group of plays.

Notable Injuries

Thabo Sefolosha (Probable)

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 100.5 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (15 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (7 of 22)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.4 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Donovan Mitchell

Secondary Plays – Joe Ingles (Cash), Rodney Hood (GPP), Derrick Favors

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers’ matchup against the Jazz doesn’t look great on paper, but sometimes we have to look beyond the numbers. The Jazz may be ranked fifth in points allowed per game, but a lot of that was thanks to Rudy Gobert. They are a significantly worse defense without him. The Sixers are also playing at home, which never hurts a young offense. Philadelphia has an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the second highest on the board.

With such a high implied total, we have to be interested in the two-man show of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. The matchup and their recently increased salaries should scare people off in cash games, even though they both have excellent floors. If I had to choose one, I would side with Embiid. The Jazz no longer have an elite rim protector and he should be able to dominate the paint on both ends of the floor. He is finally getting a full complement of minutes, averaging 34 in his last three games.

I have slightly less interest in the Sixers’ role players, but that doesn’t mean that I will be fading them completely. Dario Saric has played well recently, he had a nice outing against the Jazz earlier this season, and he’s still only $4,700 on DraftKings. J.J. Redick and Robert Covington are both fringe tournament plays tonight. While their individual matchups aren’t great, they should both see minutes in the low 30s.

Notable Injuries

Jerryd Bayless (Probable)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.0 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (2 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (9 of 22)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid (DK), Ben Simmons (DK)

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (FD), Ben Simmons (FD), J.J. Redick, Dario Saric (DK), Robert Covington

Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		214.0					Vegas Total		214.0
			Vegas Spread		2.0					Vegas Spread		-2.0
			Implied Team Total		106.0					Implied Team Total		108.0
			Pace Projection +/-		0.8					Pace Projection +/-		-0.8
Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	16	24	22	13	14		DvP	21	19	15	3	18
DRPM	-0.80	-0.34	1.00	0.57	2.12		DRPM	-0.58	0.55	-1.27	0.98	-0.45

Minnesota Timberwolves

This is one of the sneakier games on the schedule tonight. It doesn’t have the highest total (214 points), but it features a close spread and two fairly efficient offenses. The Hornets have been terrific at home, but have a mediocre defense. The Wolves come into the game with an implied total of 106 points, which is the tenth highest of the slate and just slightly below their season average.

The Hornets haven’t really defended any one position well this season, although Dwight Howard is still an elite defender down low. This doesn’t mean that we can’t use Karl-Anthony Towns in tournaments, but this slate is loaded with options at center. In my CVR rankings today, he barely cracked my top eight point-per-dollar options at center. Jeff Teague will fly under the radar in tournaments and offers nice upside at sub-10% ownership.

It took a few weeks, but Jimmy Butler is finally starting to play up to the standard that he set for himself in the last few seasons. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in four of his last five games and has 40+ minute upside. I’m drinking the Jimmy Buckets Kool-Aid tonight, especially on DraftKings ($7,500). Andrew Wiggins is cheaper on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings, but he’s more of a GPP dart than anything else. Taj Gibson doesn’t have a high usage rate, but he provides a high floor and a cheap salary for cash games.

Notable Injuries

Jamal Crawford (Questionable)

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 107.5 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (13 of 22)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler (DK), Taj Gibson (FD)

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (GPP), Jimmy Butler (FD), Andrew Wiggins (FD), Taj Gibson (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are playing at home, which is always important to note. They are one of the worst road teams in basketball, but currently sport a 5-2 record at home. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked 20th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Charlotte comes into the game with an implied total of 108 points, which is the fourth highest on the board and three points above their season average.

The Hornets have a high implied total and they are playing at home, so it’s hard not to like Kemba Walker in tournaments. Nicolas Batum has stole some usage since coming back from his injury, but Walker still has plenty of upside against a Wolves’ defense that is ranked 21st against point guards. Batum has scored at least 33 fantasy points in two of his first three games back and is slightly underpriced on DraftKings ($6,200).

I don’t have a ton of interest in the rest of the Hornets. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist offers decent value at small forward. He is averaging close to 30 minutes over his last three games. Dwight Howard could see a few extra minutes in this one, but he looks a bit lost at the moment. He has scored less than 26 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the only centers in the slate with a negative DRPM this season, so I suppose Howard makes some sense in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Marvin Williams (Probable)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 104.7 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (4 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (6 of 22)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Nicolas Batum (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (Cash), Nicolas Batum (FD), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dwight Howard (GPP)

Los Angeles Clippers at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers							New York Knicks
			Vegas Total		208.5					Vegas Total		208.5
			Vegas Spread		1.0					Vegas Spread		-1.0
			Implied Team Total		103.8					Implied Team Total		104.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.2					Pace Projection +/-		-1.0
Projected Starters	Austin Rivers	Sindarius Thornwell	Wesley Johnson	Blake Griffin	DeAndre Jordan		Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Tim Hardaway	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	27	14	13	2	13		DvP	10	20	27	17	26
DRPM	-0.63	-0.94	-0.85	0.37	0.21		DRPM	-1.13	-0.37	-0.06	-0.59	1.20

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have lost eight games in a row. We can blame some of it on the loss of Chris Paul, but it hasn’t helped that Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari have been in and out of the lineup all season. Tonight they head to New York to take on a Knicks’ team that is ranked 23rd in pace of play and 12th in points allowed per game. The Clippers have an implied total of only 103.8 points, which is nearly three points below their season average.

It’s nice that this game tips off at 7:30 ET because we should know the availability of Beverley before lineups lock. If he is ruled out again, we can go right back to the Lou Williams well. Williams is instant offense off the bench and we’ve seen him play 35+ minutes a few times over the last four games. Everyone likes to target Sweet Lou in DFS, but nobody likes to play Austin Rivers, which presents a great opportunity in tournaments. If Beverley is out, Rivers should play 35+ minutes and could come in at sub-10% ownership in a good matchup against the Knicks.

Wesley Johnson will continue to soak up minutes with Gallinari out. He has been wildly inconsistent and the Knicks don’t really have a superstar that the Clippers will need him to defend. I thought Johnson made sense the other night against LeBron James, but don’t like him nearly as much tonight. Blake Griffin has an elite usage rate, he’s in good form, and he is priced below $9,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is viable in both cash games and tournaments. DeAndre Jordan has upside tonight, but there are too any good center plays for me to target him in anything other than a large-field tournament.

Notable Injuries

Danilo Gallinari (Out)
Patrick Beverley (Questionable)

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.3 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (14 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.6 (16 of 22)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Austin Rivers & Lou Williams (if Patrick Beverley is out), Blake Griffin

Secondary Plays – Austin Rivers & Lou Williams (if Patrick Beverley is active), Wesley Johnson

New York Knicks

After a good start from the Clippers and a bad start from the Knicks this season, it’s hard to believe that New York has three more wins than Los Angeles does. The Clippers used to have an elite defense, but are now ranked right around the league average in pace of play, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential. The Knicks have an implied total of 104.8 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

The issue with the Knicks isn’t the matchup, it’s that there aren’t many trustworthy plays in their lineup. Jarrett Jack and Frank Ntkilitina continue to eat into each other’s playing time and production, Tim Hardaway is questionable and inconsistent to begin with, and the center roulette wheel in New York is never fun to play. If Hardaway is ruled out, that would give a nice boost to Courtney Lee and Doug McDermott, so keep an eye on his status leading up to lock.

The one play that we can feel confident in is Kristaps Porzingis. He has an elite true usage rate (30.5%), a decent matchup against the Clippers, and he is playing at home. There are very few players that I actually factor in home/road splits with, but he is one of them. He had good splits at home last season and that trend has continued. In his ten home games this season, Porzingis is averaging 47 fantasy points per game, compared to 37 on the road.

Notable Injuries

Ron Baker (Questionable)
Tim Hardaway (Questionable)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.5 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (13 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (9 of 22)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis

Secondary Plays – Courtney Lee & Doug McDermott (if Hardaway is out)

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