NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 27th - Page Two
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Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET
| Dallas Mavericks | San Antonio Spurs | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 91.8 | Implied Team Total | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | Projected Starters | Patty Mills | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 10 | 19 | 14 | 11 | DvP | 23 | 21 | 6 | 21 | 15 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 28 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 28 | 30 | 21 | 25 | |
If you are a premium member or are thinking about becoming one, make sure to check out my Grind Down update video every day. I go through the latest injuries and talk about how they impact the slate and then go through my personal NBA model and share my favorite plays at each position.
Dallas Mavericks
We don’t need to spend a ton of time on this game. We have two of the slowest paced teams in the NBA squaring off in a potential blowout. The Mavericks are listed as 10-point underdogs on the road in a game that features a total of only 193.5 points. This is not an ideal matchup for Dallas, as the Spurs are ranked second in points allowed per game, fifth in defensive efficiency, and sixth in rebounding differential. It should come as no surprise that the Mavericks have the lowest implied total (91.8 points) of the slate.
There are only two potential plays that I see as viable from the Mavericks’ side of the ball. Harrison Barnes is routinely underpriced on DraftKings and that’s the case again tonight at $5,500. I don’t love the idea of using him as a core play in a game that could turn into a blowout, but he certainly has some tournament appeal. His ownership will be lower thanks to the fact that he’s facing the Spurs. The other intriguing play is J.J. Barea, who could end up being under 10% owned in this slate. If Wesley Matthews is ruled out, Barea has an outside chance of playing minutes in the upper 20s and he is averaging a fantasy point per minute this season.
Notable Injuries
Wesley Matthews (Questionable)
Nerlens Noel (Questionable)
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 98.8 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 91.8 (16 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -7.1 (16 of 16)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.8 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $6,000 | $5,000 | $10,900 | 26.1 | -3.1 | 28.5 | -2.5 | 0.91 | 27.3% | 45.5% | 1 | 28 |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,000 | $4,000 | $7,300 | 22.6 | 5.3 | 35.0 | 1.9 | 0.65 | 15.2% | 51.3% | 10 | 2 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,600 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 31.2 | 2.4 | 35.4 | -0.2 | 0.88 | 21.9% | 54.1% | 19 | 6 |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,000 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 7.8 | -0.1 | 13.7 | 0.9 | 0.57 | 11.2% | 54.7% | 14 | 14 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $5,000 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 22.9 | 8.0 | 24.8 | 2.1 | 0.92 | 18.4% | 54.0% | 11 | 6 |
| J.J. Barea | $4,500 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 22.2 | 2.1 | 22.2 | 0.6 | 1.00 | 26.2% | 54.0% | N/A | N/A |
| Yogi Ferrell | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 17.3 | -4.0 | 29.0 | -0.3 | 0.60 | 14.6% | 57.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes (DK), J.J. Barea (DK)
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are expected to have Tony Parker back in the lineup for the first time this season. They are also hoping that Kawhi Leonard is nearing a return, although the timetable has been set at two to three weeks from now. While the Mavericks play at a very slow pace, they are not a good defensive team. They are ranked 20th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential. The Spurs come into the game with an implied total of 101.8 points, which is the fifth lowest on the board, but slightly above their season average.
With Parker back in the mix, we can safely avoid the Spurs’ point guard situation until we see how their rotation is going to play out. We may see more three-guard lineups, but for now they can all be avoided. Danny Green, Kyle Anderson, and Rudy Gay have all been productive at times this season, but I would much rather target Joe Harris or Omri Casspi for value tonight. LaMarcus Aldridge has the most appeal, as he scored 50 fantasy points against the Mavericks two weeks ago. I’m concerned about a blowout here, but Aldridge has nice upside and should fly under the radar with Blake Griffin, Ben Simmons, and Kristaps Porzingis soaking up ownership at power forward.
Notable Injuries
Tony Parker (Probable)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 100.9 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (7 of 16)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patty Mills | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,100 | 18.9 | 2.2 | 26.2 | 2.4 | 0.72 | 18.2% | 47.9% | 23 | 29 |
| Danny Green | $4,700 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 22.7 | 4.3 | 28.8 | -0.5 | 0.79 | 16.3% | 51.3% | 21 | 28 |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,600 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 25.6 | 7.2 | 27.5 | 2.1 | 0.93 | 14.7% | 57.2% | 6 | 30 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,300 | $7,700 | $14,400 | 38.7 | -4.9 | 32.9 | 0.9 | 1.18 | 26.0% | 56.3% | 21 | 21 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,000 | $6,000 | $11,700 | 29.4 | 1.7 | 25.0 | -0.5 | 1.18 | 18.8% | 58.7% | 15 | 25 |
| Rudy Gay | $4,500 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 23.2 | -3.0 | 22.1 | -2.0 | 1.05 | 22.2% | 55.8% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge (GPP)
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 14.0 | Vegas Spread | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.3 | Implied Team Total | 112.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | George Hill | Garrett Temple | Skal Labissiere | Zach Randolph | Projected Starters | Shaun Livingston | Klay Thompson | Omri Casspi | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 8 | 22 | 28 | 18 | DvP | 17 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 29 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 30 | 18 | 14 | 23 | 24 | |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are only 5-14 on the season, but four of those wins have come in their last ten games. This is another potential blowout situation, but at least the Kings caught somewhat of a break, as the Warriors will likely be without three of their best six players tonight. This isn’t a great matchup on paper, but this is a pace-up spot for Sacramento and their implied total is four points higher than their season average.
You can look at the Kings in two different ways tonight. If you think they keep the game competitive, it will likely be on the heels of strong games from their veterans (Zach Randolph and George Hill). If you think the game gets out of hand (which is where I’m leaning), then we will see additional playing time for the young players. Regardless of which side you think this game falls on, I see all of the Kings’ players as risky cash game targets. I do, however, like the idea of stacking this game in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
None
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 94.3 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.3 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.0 (3 of 16)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.3 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.5 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $4,800 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 22.0 | -1.1 | 26.6 | 1.4 | 0.83 | 22.4% | 45.6% | 10 | 2 |
| George Hill | $5,000 | $4,200 | $9,600 | 18.5 | 3.2 | 26.1 | 1.2 | 0.71 | 16.8% | 53.4% | 8 | 18 |
| Garrett Temple | $3,700 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 15.9 | -3.7 | 25.0 | 3.8 | 0.64 | 14.0% | 48.0% | 22 | 5 |
| Skal Labissiere | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 16.1 | -3.9 | 17.6 | -3.7 | 0.92 | 19.9% | 49.1% | 28 | 1 |
| Zach Randolph | $5,500 | $5,400 | $11,200 | 24.7 | 9.0 | 24.5 | 2.6 | 1.01 | 23.4% | 53.1% | 18 | 2 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $5,500 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 24.2 | 5.4 | 25.2 | 3.1 | 0.96 | 17.9% | 52.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Buddy Hield | $4,400 | $4,500 | $9,900 | 22.6 | 3.5 | 23.1 | -2.6 | 0.98 | 22.7% | 54.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Kosta Koufos | $3,500 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 17.7 | 0.1 | 19.9 | 0.5 | 0.89 | 11.4% | 57.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Zach Randolph, De’Aaron Fox, George Hill (DK), Willie Cauley-Stein
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are going to be short-handed once again. Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry have both been ruled out, while Andre Iguodala is listed as doubtful. It’s worth noting that he did participate in this morning’s shootaround, but he’s still not expected to play. This is going to open up a ton of minutes and more importantly, a ton of usage for the rest of the Warriors. They draw a favorable matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency and dead last in rebounding differential this season.
With Curry out, Shaun Livingston will get the nod at point guard. He’s not a great player at this stage of his career, but he should play 25+ minutes as the starting point guard for one of the top offenses in the slate. We don’t need to overthink this one — he’s an elite value play, especially on FanDuel ($3,000). We are dealing with a small sample here, but Klay Thompson has a 34% usage rate this season with Curry, Durant, and Iguodala off the floor. Thompson will be the focal point on offense and I’m willing to pay a premium for him in cash games and tournaments.
Again, we are dealing with a small sample size here, but Draymond Green is averaging 1.52 FP/min with those three players off the floor. He will go from being the number four option offensively to being the number two option. Green is viable in all formats, especially on DraftKings ($7,100). Omri Casspi not only sees a big bump in playing time, but he also has the revenge factor working for him. Casspi is one of my three favorite values on the board tonight and I will be loading up on him in all formats. Zaza Pachulia and Jordan Bell are both worth a look as low-owned tournament punts.
Notable Injuries
Kevin Durant (Out)
Stephen Curry (Out)
Andre Iguodala (Doubtful)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 117.4 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.3 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -5.2 (13 of 16)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.3 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Livingston | $3,000 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 12.2 | -5.1 | 15.8 | -3.2 | 0.77 | 15.3% | 51.4% | 17 | 30 |
| Klay Thompson | $7,000 | $7,000 | $13,200 | 32.3 | 3.8 | 32.7 | -1.8 | 0.99 | 21.1% | 61.3% | 11 | 18 |
| Omri Casspi | $4,000 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.9 | 1.11 | 15.1% | 67.8% | 8 | 14 |
| Draymond Green | $8,100 | $7,100 | $13,200 | 34.0 | -0.6 | 30.8 | 0.1 | 1.10 | 15.1% | 58.7% | 16 | 23 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,700 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 15.0 | 6.3 | 14.7 | 1.4 | 1.02 | 13.1% | 60.1% | 29 | 24 |
| Jordan Bell | $3,400 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 2.4 | 1.22 | 11.9% | 70.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Shaun Livingston, Klay Thompson, Omri Casspi, Draymond Green
Secondary Plays – Zaza Pachulia (GPP), Jordan Bell (GPP)
Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | Los Angeles Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Larry Nance | Brook Lopez | Projected Starters | Lou Williams | Austin Rivers | Wesley Johnson | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 26 | 25 | 17 | 26 | DvP | 21 | 23 | 5 | 23 | 24 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 29 | 23 | 9 | 28 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 10 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are excited to have Larry Nance back tonight, after missing an extended period with a thumb injury. They aren’t going to waste any time getting him acclimated, as they have already announced him as the starter for tonight’s game. This will move Kyle Kuzma back to the bench and could cut into the minutes of Julius Randle. The Lakers draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Clippers, who are ranked 16th in points allowed per game this season.
Lonzo Ball is starting to heat up. Over his last four games, he is averaging 36.7 minutes and 39.5 fantasy points per contest. We can safely ignore the fact that the Clippers are ranked seventh against point guards this season because a lot of that had to do with Patrick Beverley, who is now out for the season. If you look at the DRPM of Lou Williams and Austin Rivers, they are two of the worst at defending point guards and shooting guards. Ball is one of my favorite tournament targets in the slate.
Outside of Ball, there isn’t a lot to love on the Lakers. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Brandon Ingram would be viable in a smaller slate, but there are too many value plays at their respective positions to consider targeting them tonight. I’d like to take another shot on Randle, who has spent most of his recent time as the backup center, but I have no idea how this rotation is going to shake out with Nance back. With Nance active, Randle was only averaging 20 minutes per game.
Notable Injuries
Larry Nance (Probable)
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.3 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (10 of 16)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $7,200 | $7,100 | $12,400 | 32.8 | 6.7 | 33.3 | 3.4 | 0.99 | 18.8% | 37.4% | 7 | 29 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $6,000 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 27.2 | 6.9 | 34.4 | 2.2 | 0.79 | 15.1% | 55.0% | 26 | 23 |
| Brandon Ingram | $6,300 | $6,100 | $11,900 | 28.4 | 4.6 | 33.8 | -0.1 | 0.84 | 18.5% | 51.0% | 25 | 9 |
| Larry Nance | $4,600 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 25.2 | 23.2 | 1.08 | 14.6% | 64.2% | 17 | 28 | ||
| Brook Lopez | $5,400 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 27.4 | 1.4 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 1.14 | 21.8% | 54.9% | 26 | 13 |
| Julius Randle | $5,000 | $5,300 | $11,200 | 24.6 | 5.2 | 21.6 | 4.8 | 1.14 | 19.9% | 59.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Clarkson | $4,800 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 22.6 | -5.7 | 21.8 | -0.9 | 1.04 | 26.4% | 56.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Kuzma | $5,500 | $6,800 | $12,200 | 26.2 | 3.1 | 31.9 | 3.0 | 0.82 | 18.7% | 58.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lonzo Ball (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Lonzo Ball (Cash), Julius Randle (FD GPP), Larry Nance (FD GPP)
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers have one of the best matchups on the board and they are all going to be under-owned with the exception of Blake Griffin. With this spread being so close and with this being the last game of the night, you may want to have some exposure to this one. The Clippers have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the sixth highest on the board and 4.2 points above their season average.
All of the value plays that have opened up tonight will lead to low ownership for the Clippers’ guards, which makes them appealing tournament plays. Austin Rivers rarely garners any ownership to begin with, but he should see around 35 minutes against a Lakers’ defense that is ranked 21st against point guards and 23rd against shooting guards. Lou Williams will likely have to deal with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but the matchup might be negated by the whole revenge narrative. Williams has massive upside and is only $6,500 on DraftKings.
Wesley Johnson continues to produce and nobody seems to notice. He makes a nice pivot off of the chalkier Joe Harris and Omri Casspi in tournaments. You can even play all three on DraftKings and really have some money to spend on superstars. Speaking of superstars, Blake Griffin is averaging 41.7 fantasy points in his last four gams. He has an elite true usage rate and a great matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked 23rd against power forwards this season. I don’t mind taking a shot on DeAndre Jordan on DraftKings ($6,700), but I’m hitching my wagon to Clint Capela in that price range.
Notable Injuries
Danilo Gallinari (Out)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.1 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (6 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2 (2 of 16)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.5 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lou Williams | $7,300 | $6,500 | $10,600 | 27.7 | 1.5 | 28.4 | 3.8 | 0.97 | 24.6% | 57.9% | 21 | 3 |
| Austin Rivers | $5,500 | $4,900 | $8,900 | 23.3 | 0.4 | 33.3 | 1.7 | 0.70 | 18.7% | 48.0% | 23 | 4 |
| Wesley Johnson | $5,200 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 18.9 | 7.1 | 24.5 | 8.3 | 0.77 | 11.4% | 61.0% | 5 | 21 |
| Blake Griffin | $9,700 | $9,000 | $15,300 | 41.0 | 0.7 | 35.8 | 0.3 | 1.15 | 28.0% | 54.2% | 23 | 3 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $7,800 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 31.8 | -0.4 | 32.5 | 0.5 | 0.98 | 10.3% | 65.7% | 24 | 10 |
| Sindarius Thornwell | $3,600 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 9.1 | -3.4 | 16.7 | 1.6 | 0.54 | 11.8% | 53.1% | N/A | N/A |