NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-11-28 03:55:13

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		225.0					Vegas Total		225.0
			Vegas Spread		1.0					Vegas Spread		-1.0
			Implied Team Total		112.0					Implied Team Total		113.0
			Pace Projection +/-		4.6					Pace Projection +/-		0.1
Projected Starters	Jose Calderon	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Jae Crowder	Kevin Love		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	19	22	21	18	27		DvP	25	27	18	15	10
DRPM Rat.	1	25	1	29	2		DRPM Rat.	9	27	27	27	21

Hello and welcome back to another edition of the NBA Grind Down. I hope everyone enjoyed their long weekend. Personally, after three straight weeks of travel, I’m ready to get back to my usual routine before gearing up for the holiday season. Before we get into the slate, I wanted to mention that I made a slight change to the way the DRPM numbers are presented. The DRPM number isn’t very useful in and of itself if we don’t have anything to compare it to. The issue with using the DRPM number as a baseline is that different positions have different ranges. For instance, Karl-Anthony Towns has a DRPM of -0.63, which is the worst of any center but would only rank slightly below average compared to point guards. It makes more sense to compare DRPM at each position rather than as a whole. Using each player’s DRPM and their position, I have calculated a score that ranges from 1-to-30 and have labeled it DRPM Rating, with 1 being the best defender at the position and 30 being the worst. We can now see how matchups shake out by position and since they are graded 1-to-30, we can also compare them to DvP more easily. I’m sure there will be a few of you that prefer the old way, but this way is more informative and gives us a better chance to truly gauge individual matchups.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have won seven games in a row and are tied for third in the Eastern Conference standings. Reports of their demise were perhaps a bit too early. Let’s not forget that LeBron James has carried much worse teams to the Eastern Conference Finals. Tonight’s game against the Sixers should be an exciting one for both casual fans and for DFS players. Both of these teams are ranked in the bottom eight in points allowed per game and the total is currently set at 225 points. The best part is that this is basically a pick ‘em, so we can expect starters from both sides to see a full complement of minutes. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 112 points, which is the fourth highest mark of the 16 teams in action tonight.

Jose Calderon is going to draw another start at point guard, but his minutes will be limited, especially with Iman Shumpert back on the bench. While this is a nice matchup, both players are easy fades given their limited playing time. Dwayne Wade is the most appealing guard from Cleveland. His minutes (27.3) and fantasy points (31) are both trending upward in his last four games. The price is a bit high for cash game consideration, but he’s certainly viable in tournaments.

LeBron James is having one of his best statistical seasons of his career, largely in part thanks to a subpar surrounding cast. He is being asked to play 38 minutes a night, while also shouldering the load offensively. While the Sixers do have an elite on-ball defender in Robert Covington and an elite rim protector in Joel Embiid, it’s tough to fade James in cash games. He does so much on the floor and we have a potentially high scoring game on tap tonight. He is the top overall play on the board since there is blowout potential in the Rockets’ game.

Jae Crowder has been a fantasy disappointment this season. After a career year in Boston, I thought he would flourish playing next to LeBron (he tends to make everyone around him better). However, Crowder is averaging a meager 16.6 fantasy points per game this season. Kevin Love is an intriguing tournament option in tonight’s slate. Embiid is an excellent defender, but he’s used to guarding true centers that spend their time in the post. Love should get plenty of open looks in a pace-up game against a defense that is ranked 27th as a whole against centers.

Notable Injuries

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.8 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.0 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 (6 of 16)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.2 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.1 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (Cash), Dwyane Wade (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are hoping to have Ben Simmons back in the lineup tonight, as they host the defending Eastern Conference champions. Simmons is still listed as questionable, but it’s worth noting that he did participate in this morning’s shoot-around. Given the fact that the Cavaliers have won seven straight games, tonight’s spread (one point) indicates that Vegas expects Simmons to play. In terms of matchups, there have been few more favorable than the Cavaliers this season. Cleveland is ranked 11th in pace of play and 29th in defensive efficiency. The Sixers have an implied total of 113 points tonight, which is the second highest on the board and 3.4 points above their season average.

For our purposes, I am going to assume that Simmons is going to be active. If he is ruled out, give the biggest bump to T.J. McConnell and small boosts to the other four starters. If Simmons is able to suit up, he immediately steps in as one of the top fantasy options of the slate. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in four straight games and the Cavaliers don’t have anyone that can match up with him outside of LeBron James, who is expending all of his energy on the offensive end of the floor these days. If Simmons does play, that doesn’t automatically rule out McConnell, but he would likely return to his 26-28 minute role off the bench.

J.J. Redick has quietly been having a terrific season for the Sixers. He is currently averaging 33.1 minutes and 25.7 fantasy points per game and draws a favorable matchup against the Cavaliers, who have allowed the third most three-pointers made per game (12.4) this season. Robert Covington will be asked to defend LeBron James, which can be looked at in one of two ways. He has the potential to play more minutes (which is good), but he also has the potential to get into foul trouble (which is not good). I’m viewing Covington the same way that I always do — a great GPP play and a fairly risky cash game option.

The second biggest boost of Simmons’ absence would go to Dario Saric, whose minute projection would go from 26-28 to 32-34. I see him as a secondary play if Simmons is active and an elite play if Simmons out. Joel Embiid is a great play regardless, although his price on DraftKings is a bit prohibitive. He hasn’t played more than 30 minutes in any of his last three games. The upside is still massive and this is a game where I would expect him to play 31-33 minutes, but I prefer using him on FanDuel, where he is $700 cheaper.

Notable Injuries

Ben Simmons (Questionable)
Nik Stauskas (Out)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.6 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.0 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (4 of 16)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons, J.J. Redick, Joel Embiid (FD)

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (DK), Robert Covington, Dario Saric, T.J. McConnell

Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		219.0					Vegas Total		219.0
			Vegas Spread		4.0					Vegas Spread		-4.0
			Implied Team Total		107.5					Implied Team Total		111.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.6					Pace Projection +/-		2.4
Projected Starters	Elfrid Payton	Evan Fournier	Terrence Ross	Aaron Gordon	Nikola Vucevic		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	20	13	2	24	28		DvP	29	30	16	25	19
DRPM Rat.	20	6	28	8	13		DRPM Rat.	16	24	2	27	6

Orlando Magic

The Magic started the season off on a good note, but have turned back into the Magic that we have come to know and love over the years. They have lost eight games in a row and are listed as 4-point underdogs on the road tonight against the Pacers. While it’s not a great time to be a Magic fan, this should be a good game to target for fantasy production. The Pacers are ranked ninth in pace of play and 22nd in points allowed per game this season. Even as underdogs, the Magic come into the game with an implied total of 107.5 points, which is the seventh highest of the slate.

Elfrid Payton has played well over his last four games (32.5 fantasy points), but he feels a bit overpriced even in a favorable matchup. As usual, point guard is littered with options, which makes Payton a GPP play at best. He is far too inconsistent to trust in cash games. The wing players for Orlando have all been slumping over the last couple of weeks. Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, and Jonathon Simmons have all been easy fades. With all of the potential slate-changing injuries tonight, we can find better values for both cash games and tournaments.

I’m not going to have a ton of exposure to the Magic tonight, but I will have some shares of their frontcourt. Indiana is currently ranked 24th against power forwards, 28th against cetners, and 17th in rebounding differential. Aaron Gordon provides nice upside as a low-owned tournament play. Nikola Vucevic deserves consideration in all formats. He’s coming off of a four-game stretch where he averaged 39.1 fantasy points per contest. Vucevic only averages 29.4 minutes on the season, but that number usually jumps up to the low 30s in close games.

Notable Injuries

Jonathan Isaac (Doubtful)

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 107.3 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (8 of 16)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Nikola Vucevic (DK)

Secondary Plays – Nikola Vucevic (FD), Aaron Gordon (GPP)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are hoping to have Victor Oladipo back in the lineup tonight and given the fact that they are facing his former team, I’m sure he’s itching to play as well. He is expected to be a game-time decision, but luckily this is one of the first games to tip-off tonight. The Pacers have one of the best matchups on the schedule, as they are hosting a Magic team that is ranked sixth in pace of play, 28th in points allowed per game, and 25th in rebounding differential. Indiana has the fifth highest implied total (111.5 points) on the board.

For our purposes, I am going to assume that Oladipo is active. If he ends up being out, give small bumps to Darren Collison, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Cory Joseph. Lance Stephenson would be the primary beneficiary, as he put up 30 fantasy points in 36 minutes in a spot start against the Celtics on Saturday. Collison should see minutes in the low 30s regardless and he draws a terrific matchup against the magic, who are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season.

In his last matchup against the team that drafted him and then traded him, Oladipo scored 73 fantasy points and no, that is not a typo. If he’s able to suit up, he would immediately become my favorite shooting guard to pay up for in this slate. The usage, minutes, and matchup are all in his favor. Bogdanovic continues to produce on a nightly basis. He is averaging 22 fantasy points on the season and 26.8 in his last three games. He’s not a player that I will start my lineups with, but he certainly offers nice value on FanDuel.

Thaddeus Young draws a nice matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 25th against power forwards and 25th in rebounding differential. Young is the one player in this frontcourt that we can trust to play 30+ minutes a night and I expect his ownership to be reasonably low in an eight game slate. Myles Turner has scored over 26 fantasy points one time in his last five games. As long as he and Domantas Sabonis are both healthy, they are easy fades in DFS.

Notable Injuries

Victor Oladipo (Questionable)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.3 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.2 (5 of 16)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.5 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic (FD)

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (FD), Thaddeus Young

Portland Trail Blazers at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers							New York Knicks
			Vegas Total		204.0					Vegas Total		204.0
			Vegas Spread		-1.0					Vegas Spread		1.0
			Implied Team Total		102.5					Implied Team Total		101.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.2
Projected Starters	Damian Lillard	C.J. McCollum	Pat Connaughton	Noah Vonleh	Jusuf Nurkic		Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Tim Hardaway	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	27	17	12	4	14		DvP	8	9	13	3	4
DRPM Rat.	18	24	25	19	23		DRPM Rat.	10	16	19	10	5

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have quietly gone about their business this season. They own a 12-8 record and are currently tied for fourth in the Western Conference standings. Tonight they travel east to take on a Knicks’ team that has surpassed expectations this season. In terms of the matchup, this is a fairly mediocre one for Portland. On the season, New York is ranked 20th in pace of play, 13th in points allowed per game, and third in rebounding differential. The Blazers have an implied total of 102.5 points, which is slightly below their season average.

The Knicks have a stout frontcourt, so the best way to attack them is with point guards and shooting guards. This works out well for the Blazers, whose best two players are Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Lillard has an elite true usage rate of 29.6% and is averaging 43 fantasy points per game on the season. His price feels a little too cheap tonight, especially given the matchup. With Stephen Curry out, Lillard is easily the top target at point guard. McCollum is also viable tonight and it’s not the craziest idea in the world to pair them together in the same lineup. McCollum also feels a bit too cheap, as he is under $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Pat Connaughton had more appeal before the Warriors’ news broke. He played 36 minutes the other night and stands out as a decent value against the Knicks. The problem is that his minutes are far from secure with Evan Turner and Maurice Harkless playing behind him. Noah Vonleh offers decent upside for the price, but he’s a tournament dart at best. Jusuf Nurkic always seems overpriced in DFS. His production has been steady over his last four games, but I will pass on him in a matchup against the Knicks.

Notable Injuries

Al-Farouq Aminu (Out)

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 103.2 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (11 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (11 of 16)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.5 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum

Secondary Plays – Pat Connaughton, Noah Vonleh (GPP)

New York Knicks

The Knicks are hoping to have a couple pieces of their frontcourt back in action tonight. They have been playing short-handed in the last two games and have lost both outings by 23 points combined. Kristaps Porzingis is listed as probable, while Enes Kanter is questionable. It sounds like Kanter is ready to get back out there, but he’ll have to be cleared by the medical staff. The Knicks draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. New York has an implied total of only 101.5 points, which is 3.2 points below their season average.

After being in a time-split with Frank Ntilikina for a couple of weeks, Jarrett Jack has taken over the reigns at point guard. Over his last four games, he is averaging 30.5 minutes ad 25.8 fantasy points per contest. Damian Lillard has stepped up his play on the defensive end of the floor, but $3,900 (DraftKings) for a starting point guard that should play 30 minutes isn’t bad at all. Courtney Lee has been on a tear recently and is still only $4,700 on DraftKings, but I doubt he finds his way into any of my lineups tonight.

Tim Hardaway has really flourished with the Knicks and is making New York’s management look a little better after they signed him to that big contract in the offseason. Given the difficult matchup, he’s not a player that I will be forcing into my lineups, but I don’t mind grabbing a few shares in tournaments. The most appealing play here is Porzingis, who is averaging 46 fantasy points per game at home this season. He does a little bit of everything on the floor and with all of the value available tonight, we can afford to fit a few superstars into our lineups.

Notable Injuries

Enes Kanter (Questionable)
Joakim Noah (Questionable)
Kristaps Porzingis (Probable)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.7 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (13 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -3.2 (12 of 16)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.2 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis

Secondary Plays – Jarrett Jack (DK), Courtney Lee (DK), Tim Hardaway

Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Detroit Pistons							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		200.0					Vegas Total		200.0
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		96.8					Implied Team Total		103.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.0					Pace Projection +/-		-2.2
Projected Starters	Reggie Jackson	Avery Bradley	Stanley Johnson	Tobias Harris	Andre Drummond		Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Marcus Morris	Al Horford
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	3	1	15	1	6		DvP	11	16	27	6	7
DRPM Rat.	3	1	4	20	1		DRPM Rat.	22	22	7	29	7

Detroit Pistons

After three attackable games, we arrive at the Pistons-Celtics slugfest. Both of these teams are ranked in the bottom eight in pace of play and in the top seven in points allowed per game. Unless these two teams abandon their game plans, this will be a defensive battle. The Pistons come into the game as 6.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 96.8 points. They have the second worst projected point differential, as their implied total if seven points lower than their average points per game.

I’ll start by saying that the Pistons are a full fade for me in cash games. The Celtics have the best offense in the NBA and the Pistons are facing them on the road. With that said, there are two intriguing tournament plays here. Avery Bradley is facing his former team for the first time in his career. Whether or not that will translate into a big fantasy outing is unknown, but at the very least, he has some GPP appeal on FanDuel at a price of $5,300. Andre Drummond is also viable in tournaments. His price is below $9,000 and before this season, the best way to attack Boston was in the paint. In his last three games against the Celtics, Drummond has scored 51, 69, and 40 fantasy points.

Notable Injuries

Jon Leuer (Doubtful)

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 103.7 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.8 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -7.0 (15 of 16)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 95.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.1 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.8 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley (GPP), Andre Drummond (GPP)

Boston Celtics

The Celtics had their winning streak snapped, but they have still won 18 of their last 19 games and have the best record in the NBA. They have been fairly efficient offensively and downright stingy on the other end of the floor. Tonight’s matchup against the Pistons is far from ideal, as Detroit is ranked 24th in pace of play and seventh in points allowed per game. The Celtics have an implied total of only 103.3 points, which is the seventh lowest on the board tonight.

Kyrie Irving has an elite true usage rate (29.4%) and a nice matchup against the likes of Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith. There’s a chance that he draws some Avery Bradley as well, but he is no longer the elite defender that he was in year’s past. Irving has some tournament appeal, but I prefer Damian Lillard at a similar price point. If you are going to play Irving, I would use him on DraftKings where he is $1,200 cheaper. I haven’t seen an update on Jaylen Brown (who was away from the team on Saturday), but I will assume that he’s back with the team. If that’s the case, Marcus Smart will head back to the bench. Both can be avoided in this difficult matchup.

Jayson Tatum was a major letdown the other night. He had a favorable matchup against the Pacers and the Celtics were playing short-handed. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back here, there are better values at power forward. Marcus Morris has a chance at revenge against his former team. He should play 24-26 minutes and offers decent value at a price of only $4,500 on FanDuel. Al Horford is an easy fade at center, as he has failed to top 33 fantasy points in each of his last three games against Andre Drummond.

Notable Injuries

Marcus Morris (Probable)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 103.6 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (9 of 16)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (DK), Marcus Morris (FD)

Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		227.0					Vegas Total		227.0
			Vegas Spread		17.0					Vegas Spread		-17.0
			Implied Team Total		105.0					Implied Team Total		122.0
			Pace Projection +/-		1.0					Pace Projection +/-		5.2
Projected Starters	Spencer Dinwiddie	Joe Harris	DeMarre Carroll	Trevor Booker	Tyler Zeller		Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	5	19	10	8	23		DvP	24	15	30	29	30
DRPM Rat.	10	10	8	2	3		DRPM Rat.	6	21	2	26	16

Brooklyn Nets

This game has a ton of fantasy appeal on paper. We have two fast-paced offenses squaring off in a game that has a total of 227 points. The problem is that both benches could play most of the second half. The Nets are playing short-handed, they are on the second half of a back-to-back, and they are 17-point underdogs. Their implied total of 105 points doesn’t seem too bad when you compare it to the other teams on the schedule, but it is 5.6 points below their season average.

While I do expect this game to turn into a blowout, that doesn’t mean that we have to automatically fade it in DFS. Rondae-Hollis Jefferson and Allen Crabbe have both been ruled out of tonight’s game, which opens up a lot of minutes in this rotation. DeMarre Carroll was also added to the injury report this morning, which would open up even more playing time. I refuse to pay over $7,000 for Spencer Dinwiddie in a matchup against Chris Paul, but the rest of the Nets are intriguing.

We will start with Joe Harris, who played 37 minutes in a spot start last night against the Grizzlies. Harris should be locked into 30+ minutes in an uptempo game against the Rockets and he is affordable across the industry. Given the fact that he’s a bench player to begin with, he could end up seeing some garbage time as well. I want no part of Carroll tonight even if he is active. He’ll be the first player on the bench if the game gets out of hand. Caris LeVert and Sean Kilpatrick are intriguing tournament plays that could see some extra run against the Rockets’ backups.

I have mixed feelings on the Nets’ frontcourt. Trevor Booker will likely slide into the starting lineup, but he’s a veteran that could see limited minutes in a blowout. He still has some appeal in tournaments, but I wouldn’t start my cash game lineups with him. Tyler Zeller should be locked into a 20+ minute role and his FP/min isn’t bad at all this season at 0.85. I’m not sure we need to dive that deep into the value barrel tonight, but he could be viable in large-field tournaments where you have to beat out 10,000+ entries.

Notable Injuries

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Out)
Allen Crabbe (Out)
DeMarre Carroll (Questionable)

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 110.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -5.6 (14 of 16)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.9 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Joe Harris

Secondary Plays – Caris LeVert, Sean Kilpatrick, Trevor Booker (GPP), Tyler Zeller (GPP)

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have the best record in the Western Conference and should be able to steamroll through a short-handed Nets’ team. The good news for the fantasy production of the starters is that this isn’t the front or tail end of a back-to-back. The bad news is that they could be up by 25 in the third quarter and at that point, there is no reason to risk injuries. In terms of the matchup, the Nets are basically the perfect opponent. They are ranked first in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. Houston has an implied total of 122 points, which is the highest of the slate and 8.5 points above their season average.

If you think this game has a good shot of staying close, you should have interest in everyone on the Rockets. I don’t have a ton of confidence in the short-handed Nets, who are playing their second road game in as many nights. For that reason, I will not be using Chris Paul or James Harden in cash games. With that said, they are both excellent tournament plays. The matchup is elite and the big spread will help lower ownership. If the game happens to stay within 10-12 points, they will see a full complement of minutes.

Ryan Anderson is expected to start at power forward, but Mike D’Antoni said that he may play around with the lineup again. Anderson’s home splits are well documented, but I have a hard time fading him at a price of only $4,000 (FanDuel) against the Nets. He will get plenty of open looks, he just needs to knock them down. Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, and P.J. Tucker are all intriguing tournament plays. Gordon and Tucker could see some garbage time, which never hurts.

Clint Capela has the second best FP/min (1.35) of any center in the slate and he also draws the best matchup. The Nets are ranked 30th against centers and 23rd in rebounding differential. Capela has 40 fantasy point upside even if he only plays 20 minutes tonight. With Nene Hilario out, this is a potential blowup spot for Capela. It feels strange paying this much for someone that only averages 25.6 minutes per game, but I’m willing to bank on efficiency in an elite matchup.

Notable Injuries

Nene Hilario (Out)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 113.5 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 122.0 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 8.5 (1 of 16)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.5 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.7 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Chris Paul (DK GPP), James Harden (GPP), Ryan Anderson (FD), Clint Capela

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul (DK Cash), James Harden (Cash), Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, Ryan Anderson (DK), Eric Gordon

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