NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-14 18:21:23

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors – 3:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs							Golden State Warriors
			Vegas Total		209.5					Vegas Total		209.5
			Vegas Spread		8.0					Vegas Spread		-8.0
			Implied Team Total		100.8					Implied Team Total		108.8
			Pace Projection +/-		2.2					Pace Projection +/-		-2.4
Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Patty Mills	Danny Green	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge		Projected Starters	Quinn Cook	Klay Thompson	Kevin Durant	Draymond Green	Zaza Pachulia
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	15	23	11	26	6		DvP	5	2	5	3	4
DRPM Rat.	27	11	24	3	7		DRPM Rat.	1	26	1	1	8

San Antonio Spurs

It is good to have some meaningful basketball back in our lives. The last few weeks have felt more like the preseason than anything else. We kick off this year’s playoffs with the Spurs and Warriors, but unfortunately, two of the best players in the series are expected to miss the entirety of the first round. Betting markets have the Spurs at +700, which seems a bit high given how poorly the Warriors have played without Stephen Curry. For Game 1, the Spurs are 8-point underdogs with an implied total of 100.8 points.

I’m interested to see how Gregg Popovich distributes the point guard minutes in this series. Dejounte Murray is the more talented of the two, but Tony Parker obviously has the advantage when it comes to experience. For what it’s worth, Murray did play at least 29 minutes in three of the last four games during the regular season. Murray is the better play overall (especially on DraftKings), but Parker is worth a look in large-field tournaments. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Spurs shorten their rotation and give a couple extra minutes to Danny Green, Patty Mills, Kyle Anderson, and Rudy Gay. Mills will likely log the most minutes of the four, but Gay is my favorite play of the bunch. He’s viable in all formats, while the other three are best suited as tournament plays. This is also the time of year to give Manu Ginobili a hard look in tournaments, who is only $3,800 on DraftKings.

With the Warriors rolling out a lot of small lineups, we can expect the Spurs to do the same. LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol will see the floor together at times, but I don’t expect Joffrey Lauvergne to be a big part of the rotation. When the Warriors play Kevin Durant at the four, I expect the Spurs to follow suit with Gay. Aldridge has been dominant against the Warriors this season, posting outings of 49, 38, 54, and 57 fantasy points. He’s the top target from the Spurs, but we certainly have to pay a premium for him. Gasol has scored 21, 14, and 9 fantasy points in his three games against Golden State this season. For now, I will be avoiding Gasol unless we see Popovich commit to playing bigger lineups in this series.

Notable Injuries

Kawhi Leonard (Out)

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 102.7 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 (4 of 8)

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Rudy Gay, LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobili (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dejounte Murray, Tony Parker (GPP), Manu Ginobili (DK Cash), Kyle Anderson, Patty Mills, Danny Green

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors really faltered down the stretch of the regular season, but you can argue that they didn’t have a lot to play for. They aren’t expected to have Stephen Curry available all series, so they need to be careful against a veteran team like San Antonio. When healthy, this offense is basically matchup-proof. Without Curry, they have struggled to score at times and now face a team that was ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential during the regular season. The Warriors’ implied total of 108.8 points is the fourth highest of the slate, but nearly five points below their season average.

Quinn Cook has been a diamond in the rough for the Warriors. He has really played well in the absence of Stephen Curry, but they are asking a lot of him to start in a playoff series against the Spurs. Not only will he face pressure like never before, but Dejounte Murray is arguably the best point guard defender in basketball. I’d like to see Cook play well, but I will be leaning on the Warriors’ veterans. Klay Thompson doesn’t have a great track record against the Spurs, likely because they aren’t a team that is going to give up a lot of open three-point attempts. He’s viable, but not a player that I’m looking to force into my lineups. Dollar for dollar, I’d rather play Andre Iguodala, who may have a bigger role in the postseason.

With Curry out, I fully expect Kevin Durant to shoulder the load offensively. Kyle Anderson and Rudy Gay are excellent defenders, but good offense beats good defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Durant averaged 40 minutes per game during this series. I expect his price to go up from this point, so I’ll be playing as many shares as I can in Game 1. Draymond Green didn’t have the best finish to the season, but he’s also going to see a significant boost in minutes during the playoffs. Green had two big games against the Spurs earlier this year, scoring 46 and 51 fantasy points. Of the cheap bigs, I have the most interest in David West. He won’t play more than 13-15 minutes, but he won’t be overwhelmed by the situation.

Notable Injuries

Stephen Curry (Out)

Golden State Warriors Offense

Points Per Game: 113.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.8 (6 of 8)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (29 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson, David West (GPP)

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors – 5:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		211.0					Vegas Total		211.0
			Vegas Spread		8.0					Vegas Spread		-8.0
			Implied Team Total		101.5					Implied Team Total		109.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.2					Pace Projection +/-		-0.7
Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	3	3	8	22		DvP	10	16	19	5	9
DRPM Rat.	2	22	4	9	21		DRPM Rat.	12	14	2	19	7

Washington Wizards

It feels like the Wizards and Raptors square off every year, but they actually haven’t faced each other in the playoffs since 2015. Washington has to be a little disappointed about finishing in eighth, as they had a good chance of hosting a first-round series before John Wall got hurt. I suppose you can argue that they would run into the Raptors eventually, so why not face them right out of the gate. Even though both of these teams are good defensively, I’m expecting some high scoring games in this series. The Wizards’ implied total isn’t all that appealing, but I’m willing to overlook it in hopes that this game stays close and can turn into a shootout.

John Wall is too cheap; plain and simple. If he didn’t get hurt, he would have been priced around $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Instead, he is only $8,500 on DraftKings. Kyle Lowry is an excellent defender, but Wall has scored at least 58 fantasy points in two of his last three games against the Raptors. Obviously, we don’t want to focus too much on what has happened in the past, but Wall is going to see extended playing time and he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. Bradley Beal draws the best individual matchup of the five starters. DeMar DeRozan is not a great a defender, but you all know my history with Beal. He’s viable on DraftKings ($7,000), but I’m not looking to force him into my lineups.

Otto Porter has dealt with a number of injuries this season, which has hurt his productivity and his playing time. He is listed as questionable for Game 1, but was able to go through parts of practice on Friday. Even if he suits up, I will take my chances elsewhere. If Porter is ruled out, Kelly Oubre would become the chalk value play of the slate, even though he has disappointed time and time again when given spot starts. Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat could see a few extra minutes in the playoffs. Teams tend to tighten rotations and give more minutes to their starters. Gortat is the more appealing play of the two, as he has scored at least 22 fantasy points in six of his last seven games against the Raptors.

Notable Injuries

Mike Scott (Questionable)
Otto Porter (Questionable)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -5.1 (7 of 8)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal (DK), Marcin Gortat (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (FD), Marcin Gortat (Cash), Kelly Oubre (if Porter is out)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are hoping that this is finally the year they can get past LeBron James. Actually, while they may not admit it, they are probably hoping the Pacers can do that job for them. Everything lines up for a big playoff run for Toronto, but they did get a little unlucky with their draw in the first round. When healthy, the Wizards are a top five team in the Eastern Conference. Betting markets have the Raptors at -700 to win the series, which is the third highest line of the eight first-round matchups. The Wizards are decent defensively, but the Raptors are playing at home and come into the game with an implied total of 109.5 points.

I’ve been waiting all season to play Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan with confidence. They have been involved in so many blowouts and their bench has been so good, that we haven’t been able to rely on Lowry and DeRozan to play 35+ minutes a night. The wait is finally over. Even if the Raptors are well ahead in this one, their two superstars will see a full complement of minutes. Their salaries are only going to increase after Game 1, so load up while you can. They are both too cheap and I would not hesitate to play them in the same lineup. I don’t really want to play roulette with the rest of the Raptors’ guards, as any one of them could come out and have a good game.

While I’d like to believe that Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas will see a bump in playing time as well, but I’m not sure that will be the case. Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl have been playing so well off the bench. Regardless, this isn’t a great matchup for the Raptors’ frontcourt. The Wizards are ranked in the top ten in fantasy points allowed to both power forwards and centers. It’s also worth noting that Valanciunas hasn’t topped 27 fantasy points in any of his last seven games against Washington.

Notable Injuries

Fred VanVleet (Questionable)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (5 of 8)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan

Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers – 8:00 PM ET

Miami Heat							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		212.0					Vegas Total		212.0
			Vegas Spread		7.0					Vegas Spread		-7.0
			Implied Team Total		102.5					Implied Team Total		109.5
			Pace Projection +/-		2.6					Pace Projection +/-		-1.8
Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Tyler Johnson	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Hassan Whiteside		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Amir Johnson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	13	15	20	9	12		DvP	4	14	1	6	7
DRPM Rat.	1	25	1	19	4		DRPM Rat.	21	14	7	8	2

Miami Heat

The Heat are one of the deepest teams in the playoffs. They can easily go ten deep in their rotation, which would help if these games were played back-to-back. If anything, their depth is going to make predicting fantasy production difficult. They come into the series as sizable underdogs, but may catch a huge break if Joel Embiid is going to miss more than just Saturday’s game. From a matchup standpoint, this isn’t ideal. The Sixers were ranked third in defensive efficiency and first in rebounding differential during the regular season. For Game 1, the Heat have an implied total of 102.5 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

As mentioned a couple of times already, teams tend to tighten their rotation in the playoffs. I’m not sure that’s the plan for the Heat though, as they have been playing a deep rotation all season. It will be interesting to see how many minutes are available for players like Bam Adebayo. Goran Dragic might have the lowest minute projection of any point guard in this slate outside Dejounte Murray and potentially Rajon Rondo. It doesn’t help that he is facing a Sixers’ defense that is ranked second in efficiency against point guards. At a similar price point, I will gladly take Kyle Lowry over Dragic. Tyler Johnson is intriguing, but there are a number of guards that come off the bench that could steal his minutes if he’s not playing well. The one I have interest in is Dwyane Wade. Instead of playing 20-22 minutes like he was in the regular season, we could see that bumped up, especially in competitive games.

Josh Richardson is a player that I don’t mind as a last piece into a lineup, but not one that I’m looking to force. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s, although there’s a decent chance that he’ll draw the defense of Robert Covington, who is an elite defender. At small forward, I prefer the likes of Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, and maybe even Evan Turner. The Heat’s chances in this series may rest on the shoulder of their frontcourt duo. When James Johnson is locked in, he’s very good at both ends of the floor. The same can be said for Hassan Whiteside, who tends to check out a little too often (both mentally and out of the game). I see Johnson as an elite tournament play on both sites and Whiteside is cheap enough on FanDuel ($7,000) that he deserves consideration in all formats. I want to see how big of a role Kelly Olynyk is going to play before targeting him, even in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Goran Dragic (Probable)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -0.9 (3 of 8)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.2 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dwyane Wade, Hassan Whiteside (FD), James Johnson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside (FD), James Johnson (GPP), Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson (DK), Josh Richardson

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers ended their season with a 16-game winning streak. They are hoping to carry some of that momentum into the postseason, but they are going to be without their defensive anchor, Joel Embiid. He’s been ruled out of Game 1, so we’ll have to see when he’s able to return to action. As we are quickly finding out, there aren’t nearly as many favorable matchups in the playoffs because the really bad defenses are all going to be watching from home. During the regular season, the Heat were ranked fourth in points allowed per game. The Sixers have an implied total of 109.5 points, which is tied for the second highest on the board.

Ben Simmons wasn’t asked to play a ton of minutes down the stretch of the regular season, but I expect that to change in the playoffs. If they want to advance, they are going to need Simmons to play 35+ minutes, especially while Embiid is out. Simmons is expensive, but he deserves consideration in all formats. J.J. Redick saw a few extra minutes per game down the stretch. While the matchup isn’t ideal, he offers decent upside at what should be low ownership. The same can be said for Marco Belinelli, who should be off everyone’s radar. Robert Covington is going to play a big role in this series. He’s a lock down defender and he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. His price on FanDuel ($7,900) is a big high, but he’s an elite option on DraftKings.

Dario Saric is one of the toughest players to predict here in the first playoff slate. He missed a couple of games with an injury and then was playing minutes in the upper 20s in their last few games. Typically when Embiid is out, Saric dominates. I don’t mind him in tournaments, but will be taking a wait and see approach for cash games. Ersan Ilyasova has been a tremendous add for this team and should be heavily involved while Embiid is out. Unfortunately, his price is a bit too expensive across the industry. With Hassan Whiteside potentially playing 30 minutes here, we could see big minutes from Amir Johnson. He’s not a flashy play by any means, but he offers much needed salary cap relief.

Notable Injuries

Joel Embiid (Out)
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (2 of 8)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons (GPP), Robert Covington (DK), Amir Johnson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (Cash), Robert Covington (FD), Amir Johnson (Cash), J.J. Redick (DK), Marco Belinelli (DK), Ersan Ilyasova (DK), Dario Saric (GPP)

New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							Portland Trail Blazers
			Vegas Total		217.0					Vegas Total		217.0
			Vegas Spread		5.5					Vegas Spread		-5.5
			Implied Team Total		105.8					Implied Team Total		111.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.8					Pace Projection +/-		3.1
Projected Starters	Rajon Rondo	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Nikola Mirotic	Anthony Davis		Projected Starters	Damian Lillard	C.J. McCollum	Evan Turner	Al-Farouq Aminu	Jusuf Nurkic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	1	7	13	12	5		DvP	18	27	25	18	17
DRPM Rat.	10	24	20	2	1		DRPM Rat.	16	1	28	11	1

New Orleans Pelicans

The final game of the slate should be a fun one. We have a 5.5-point spread with a total of 217 points. If you are sitting in first place in a GPP before this game starts, you better hope that you have some player minutes remaining (PMR). Of the two teams, the Pelicans have the tougher matchup. During the regular season, the Blazers were ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pelicans have the fifth highest implied total of the slate (105.8 points), but it is significantly lower than their season average.

The Pelicans are another team that we can expect to tighten their rotation. We could typically project Rajon Rondo to play 25-27 minutes a night, but I will bump that up closer to 30 for Game 1. It’s not a great matchup, but Rondo isn’t a player that needs a good matchup to produce. Most of his fantasy production comes from peripheral stats. Jrue Holiday could end up averaging 40 minutes per game in this series. His price is reasonable, especially on DraftKings and he draws the best individual matchup of the five starters. Small forward is surprisingly deep, which makes E’Twaun Moore a secondary play at best.

Nikola Mirotic went from playing minutes in the low 20s off the bench to playing 35+ minutes a night. Consequently, he went from being strictly a tournament play to being one of the best plays on the board. I have respect for the defense of Al-Farouq Aminu, but it’s hard to pass on Mirotic given his form. He is a great buy on DraftKings ($6,900). Anthony Davis should play 40+ minutes in this one, at least assuming the game stays close. Jusuf Nurkic is a good defender, but Davis is a tough matchup for anyone. His length presents problems on both ends of the floor and he can score inside and outside of the paint. I’m not looking to anyone on the bench, as I expect the starters to play a ton of minutes.

Notable Injuries

None

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -6.0 (8 of 8)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Rajon Rondo (GPP), Jrue Holiday (DK), Nikola Mirotic (DK)

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo (Cash), Jrue Holiday (FD), Nikola Mirotic (FD)

Portland Trail Blazers

Last but not least, we have the Blazers. They have the highest implied total on the board and by far the best matchup. The Pelicans are one of the only teams in the playoffs that were awful defensively during the regular season. They were ranked 29th in points allowed per game and 21st in rebounding differential. The Blazers come into the game with an implied total of 111.3 points, which is nearly six points higher than their season average. Stacking against the Pelicans was a very popular strategy in the regular season and it’s a trend that might continue in the playoffs.

Damian Lillard is arguably the best superstar to pay up for in this slate. He’s going to push for 40 minutes in an elite matchup and he is priced under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. We don’t need to overthink this one. With Lillard being so popular, it will naturally lower the ownership of C.J. McCollum. You can certainly play both, but McCollum does present an intriguing pivot play away from Lillard in large-field tournaments. Nobody likes playing Evan Turner, but he offers much needed value in this four-game slate. As long as he’s not terrible, he should play around 30 minutes against one of the worst defenses in basketball.

The Blazers’ frontcourt is firmly in play in all formats. Al-Farouq Aminu and Jusuf Nurkic should both see a boost in playing time and I’m not sure many will realize it until after this game ends. The Pelicans play with two bigs on the floor at most times and again, the Blazers may end up tightening their rotation. Anytime I expect Nurkic to play 30+ minutes, I have interest. Even if he is priced at a premium like he is on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he’s the top point-per-dollar option at center. Aminu is priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Injuries

None

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 5.7 (1 of 8)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Jusuf Nurkic (DK), C.J. McCollum (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jusuf Nurkic (FD), C.J. McCollum (Cash)