NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 23rd
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.5 |  | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.5 | Vegas Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Matthew Dellavedova | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 21 | 20 | 24 | 14 | 5 | DvP | 7 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 23 | 26 | 3 | 3 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks hit the road on the second night of a back to back to play the Charlotte Hornets again. The Bucks are in a pace up game and get to go against a bottom ten team in points allowed per game. Those two stats combined are typically great for fantasy production, but I am not as interested in the Bucks as you would think. Yesterday was a smaller slate and I had little interest in this game and I think I will feel the same way.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be a secondary play for me on this slate. I didn’t like him yesterday because when you compared him to Durant, Westbrook and Harden, he didn’t compare to the dream matchups that all the studs had. Giannis gets the same matchup and after a 44.9 fantasy game I am assuming that no one will want to roster him. The Hornets are ranked 25th in the league against opposing Small Forwards and this is the Greek Freak who can go off in any game. I am also expecting depressed ownership which could be big in tournaments, so I am going to make him a secondary play for me.
Khris Middleton isn’t a bad play but for $7600 and $7700 he is starting to be too priced up around the industry for me. Middleton is a safe cash game play that I doubt will dud for you at that price tag. My problem is that in tournaments he must be hot from three-point range and Charlotte is ranked in the top five at defending the three-point line. Middleton also shot 22 shots and barely got to x5 at his current price yesterday. That’s 7 more shots than his season average! On a second half of a back to back I will pass on this jump shooter, but I understand looking at the game log how safe of a play he can be, I just worry about his upside in this spot.
Eric Bledsoe has been great for the Bucks and is coming off a 56-point fantasy outing on FanDuel against the Hornets. The Hornets are ranked 22nd at defending the point guard position and is going to be an elite play for me on this slate. Not just because of what he did yesterday but he only cost $6400 on DraftKings and he’s averaging 32.6 DraftKings points on the season. He is a tougher roster on FanDuel for $7200 but I still think he is fair for that price, but I prefer buying him on the site where he is cheaper. With Howard questionable that could hurt the minutes for John Henson if the game goes small, so I will pass on him and some other fringe bench options that the Bucks have.
Notable Injuries Mirza Teletovic (out)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.0 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (6 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 2.0 (7 of 24)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,200 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 32.7 | -2.4 | 31.3 | 2.3 | 1.05 | 24.7% | 19 | 21 | 16 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 11.6 | -3.6 | 19.3 | -8.7 | 0.60 | 15.5% | 17 | 20 | 5 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,700 | $7,600 | $14,900 | 35.4 | 5.1 | 37.1 | 1.0 | 0.95 | 22.5% | 22 | 24 | 5 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $12,000 | $11,100 | $21,400 | 56.6 | 2.3 | 38.0 | 3.0 | 1.49 | 29.2% | 16 | 14 | 16 |
| John Henson | $5,500 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 22.8 | 4.7 | 23.9 | 3.4 | 0.95 | 12.7% | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $4,900 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 23.4 | -0.8 | 30.4 | 1.2 | 0.77 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe (DK)
Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (FD), Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets get a pace down game and could be without one of their top players Dwight Howard. This is important news that we are going to need to wait on throughout the day especially on the second night of a back to back against the team they faced yesterday, the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are a slower paced team and are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency.
Howard only played 5 minutes in this game so if he is out we have a sample from yesterday that shows what they will do against the same opponent. Frank Kaminsky, Johnny O’Bryant and Marvin Williams are the biggest beneficiaries if Howard sits in this game. Milwaukee is ranked last in defending the three-point line, so Frank the Tank and Marvin Williams should be able to stretch the floor against the Bucks. Milwaukee is also ranked 27th in the league at defending opposing centers and 16th against opposing power forwards. They are a funnel defense when it comes to front court players and if Howard is out I would make Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky elite plays at their current prices around the industry. I don’t hate the idea of mixing in Johnny O’Bryant but I’m not in love with him.
Kemba Walker sees a 2.7% boost in usage with Dwight Howard off the court and is questionable to play in this game. If he plays he would be a great play on DraftKings where he is underpriced at only $6800. FanDuel he’s a bargain too for $7200 and if he plays I could see him drawing some ownership if Dwight is out. The biggest beneficiary with no Howard is Batum who sees a 9.5% boost in usage. It’s a small sample but if Howard is out he would see a nice boost and he has been running the backup point guard recently. If Kemba sat that has traditionally hurt Batum in the past but with him running more point recently maybe this time would be different. I don’t know where exactly to rank Batum because a lot hinges on news but at his current price around the industry I will make him a secondary play. Also, if Kemba sits Michael Carter-Williams chalk day might become a thing in a revenge spot against his former team. He will be a cheap guard that we might want to get exposure to. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has gone overlooked and is only $4200 and averaging 26.4 DraftKings points per game. His minutes and production seem safe for the price along with a built-in upside on DK. The upside is there too on FanDuel at $5000 but not as great of a value as DraftKings. A lot hinges on the Walker and Howard news so monitor this news before lock and make your decisions based on that.
Notable Injuries Dwight Howard and Kemba Walker (questionable)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.4 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (8 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 0.1 (10 of 24)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $7,200 | $6,800 | $13,500 | 36.2 | -4.6 | 35.0 | -2.9 | 1.03 | 26.2% | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,000 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 24.1 | 1.3 | 30.6 | 2.4 | 0.79 | 17.4% | 13 | 7 | 23 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,000 | $4,200 | $8,700 | 21.9 | 2.4 | 26.9 | 1.2 | 0.81 | 15.3% | 14 | 3 | 26 |
| Marvin Williams | $3,800 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 18.9 | -3.6 | 26.2 | -3.3 | 0.72 | 12.6% | 7 | 15 | 3 |
| Dwight Howard | $8,300 | $7,400 | $13,800 | 34.9 | -2.3 | 30.1 | 0.6 | 1.16 | 19.9% | 30 | 25 | 3 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $5,800 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 26.4 | 0.2 | 27.0 | -1.3 | 0.98 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,100 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 18.4 | 1.8 | 22.9 | 0.7 | 0.80 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams (if Dwight Howard is out) Michael Carter-Williams (if Kemba Walker is out)
Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.0 |  | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.5 | Vegas Spread | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.8 | Implied Team Total | 112.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 30 | DvP | 26 | 18 | 26 | 26 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 2 | 29 | 6 | 12 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 21 | 3 | 21 | 15 | |
Brooklyn Nets
You might be shocked that the Nets won 119-84 against the Wizards last night but I’m not. The Nets coach Kenny Atkinson said before the game yesterday that the Nets needed to get back to what they are good at playing hard and driving to the basket. The talked about how they settled for a lot of bad shots recently and had not been locked in. I expect the Nets to come into this game focused again looking to upset a surprisingly good 18-14 Pacers team. The Nets come into this game as 10-point road underdogs in a 215-team total. The Pacers are ranked 21st in points allowed per game, 18th in defensive efficiency and 11th in pace of play. All this adds up to a lot of opportunity for fantasy points.
Spencer Dinwiddie continues to be an excellent value around the industry but way too cheap on DraftKings at $6400. Dinwiddie is averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute with the current starting lineup which is only second to Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. RHJ gets a matchup against a team that struggles against opposing frontcourt players. He is pricier than he has been in the past and off a 46.25 fantasy point game maybe he gains some ownership. I doubt that on such a big slate and I think he is a good play in this spot. The price for DeMarre Carroll has dropped on DK and for only $4800 is in play as a secondary option. $5700 is too much for me on FanDuel but on DK he is averaging 25.1 point in his last five games and is too cheap. His ceiling is limited and a good safe option in cash games. I know Tyler Zeller is cheap and the Pacers are ranked dead last against opposing Centers but it’s tough to pull the trigger on Tyler Zeller. This is a matchup I typically target but if you’re making a lot of lineups I don’t hate mixing him in tournaments for value. All the other players in Brooklyn are not that appealing to me and if I target any Nets these would be three that I would focus on.
Notable Injuries None
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.8 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (12 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -4.1 (19 of 24)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,100 | $6,400 | $12,900 | 28.7 | 0.6 | 26.8 | 1.6 | 1.07 | 22.8% | 12 | 19 | 10 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,900 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 20.4 | -2.5 | 28.2 | 4.2 | 0.72 | 16.8% | 15 | 10 | 2 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,700 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 26.5 | -5.3 | 29.2 | -2.7 | 0.91 | 17.5% | 7 | 4 | 29 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,000 | $6,200 | $12,100 | 28.1 | 1.9 | 28.1 | 3.2 | 1.00 | 19.2% | 26 | 19 | 6 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,900 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 16.3 | -2.9 | 19.0 | 1.1 | 0.86 | 14.8% | 29 | 30 | 12 |
| Caris LeVert | $5,900 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 24.1 | 0.1 | 26.6 | 1.4 | 0.91 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jarrett Allen | $3,900 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 13.9 | -3.7 | 16.5 | -0.7 | 0.84 | 10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (DK only)
Secondary Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and DeMarre Carroll (DK only)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are ranked 7th in the league in points per game and get a matchup against the Nets who are ranked 28th in points allowed per game, 22nd in defensive efficiency and 3rd in pace. The Nets are always a gold mine for fantasy points and this should be the case again tonight. The Pacers come into this game as ten-point home favorites projected to score 112.50 points.
Victor Oladipo has been incredible that’s the only way to say it. His price is high, but he does have 70-point upside and at this price we should love that. The problem is Oladipo sort of feels like Kevin Love has a wide range of outcomes sure those massive ceiling games are there, but they come with some lower 30 fantasy point games mixed in. The matchup is great but the more and more I think about it I think Oladipo is more in play for me on FanDuel than DraftKings because I must roster two shooting guards. I will make Oladipo an elite play for me on FanDuel only, but he is certainly in play on DraftKings as well. I doubt I will play Darren Collison there are just better ways to spend my money on point guard, but I get the argument as leveraging with Collison off Oladipo. Myles Turner is the other Pacer I like a ton but this time specifically on DraftKings for only $6500. $8100 on FD is too priced up but on DK he has a nice floor and a ton of upside against a Nets team ranked 28th in the league. Bojan and Young both come into this game with revenge game against the Nets, but I don’t think you need to go that route on this slate. The best way to get exposure to the Pacers on this slate is through Oladipo on FanDuel and Myles Turner on DraftKings.
Notable Injuries None
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.2 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.3 (1 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (3 of 24)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.7 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.3 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,900 | 27.2 | -2.7 | 30.4 | -2.5 | 0.90 | 18.6% | 29 | 26 | 4 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,300 | $9,600 | $17,000 | 42.6 | 1.8 | 34.4 | 2.0 | 1.24 | 27.4% | 27 | 18 | 21 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 20.7 | -3.9 | 31.5 | -2.2 | 0.66 | 15.9% | 6 | 26 | 3 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,900 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 28.5 | -6.3 | 33.5 | -1.7 | 0.85 | 15.6% | 27 | 26 | 21 |
| Myles Turner | $8,100 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 31.8 | -0.5 | 30.2 | 0.6 | 1.05 | 18.0% | 26 | 28 | 15 |
| Cory Joseph | $4,000 | $3,900 | $8,800 | 17.9 | 0.4 | 25.0 | 2.8 | 0.72 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo ( FD elite DK secondary) and Myles Turner (DK only)
Secondary Plays – None
Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.5 |  | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.3 | Implied Team Total | 110.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Shelvin Mack | Jonathon Simmons | Mario Hezonja | Nikola Vucevic | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 13 | 4 | 19 | 3 | 11 | DvP | 30 | 28 | 20 | 30 | 12 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 14 | 30 | 17 | 4 | |
Orlando Magic
The Magic have been dealing with injuries for a while now and are 5.5 road underdogs against the Magic. The Wizards are coming off a 35-point loss to the Brooklyn nets where we saw John Wall sit out part of the first half and only play 16 minutes. It was an odd game for the Wizards and I really don’t know what to expect after that one. The main thing that I am focusing on is trying to figure out what the best Magic value is to attack in this game. Hopefully Marreese Speights is not starting again so we are not tempted to roster him once again.
Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac are currently doubtful to play on Saturday. If that is the case than we will want exposure to the Magic value in this game. Nikola Vucevic, Jonathon Simmons and Elfrid Payton have been the main and most consistent players on the Magic since the recent injuries have taken place in Orlando. Elfrid Payton will be a secondary tournament play on DK because $5900 is too cheap for his upside but he is too much on FanDuel. Another common theme you will notice on this slate is that players are a lot cheaper on DK than FD. We have a comparable situation with Nikola Vucevic who is $9900 on FD and only $8600 on DK. Vucevic has a ton of upside here and is a better play on DK than FD. The last plat to discuss has been Jonathon Simmons who has been the biggest benefit from all the injuries in Orlando. In his last five games Simmons is averaging 33.5 DK points. His price throughout the industry is too cheap for his current situation and gets a matchup against the 20th ranked team versus opposing Small Forwards.
Just to summarize the Magic for you I dabbled in the whole Magic fringe players yesterday and I don’t think I am going to do it again. If I had to rank the Magic, it would be simple. Vucevic is an elite play on DK in both formats, Simmons is an elite play in both formats on both sites and Elf should be probably left on the shelf, but his price is too cheap that we can play him on DraftKings.
Notable Injuries Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier and Jonathan Isaac (doubtful) Terrence Ross (out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.3 (19 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -6.5 (24 of 24)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $6,900 | $5,900 | $11,300 | 27.2 | -3.0 | 28.3 | 1.7 | 0.96 | 20.0% | 6 | 13 | 7 |
| Shelvin Mack | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 13.8 | -2.9 | 18.1 | 3.7 | 0.76 | 15.0% | 9 | 4 | 17 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $6,500 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 23.6 | 8.7 | 28.8 | 6.6 | 0.82 | 21.0% | 11 | 19 | 1 |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 10.4 | 17.0 | 13.6 | 14.3 | 0.76 | 14.3% | 21 | 3 | 13 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $9,900 | $8,600 | $15,700 | 39.1 | 8.5 | 30.8 | 2.3 | 1.27 | 22.5% | 14 | 11 | 10 |
| Arron Afflalo | $3,500 | $3,400 | $7,300 | 5.4 | -1.9 | 13.4 | -3.9 | 0.40 | 10.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nikola Vucevic (DK only) Jonathon Simmons
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton ( DK tournaments)
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are coming off maybe one of the worst losses on the season. After a 35-point loss to the Nets they look to bounce back against the Magic who are ranked 27th in points allowed per game, 23rd in defensive efficiency and last in rebounding differential. This is a perfect spot for them to come in and recover off an ugly loss, but I do have some slight concerns with the Wizards rotation.
John Wall was nice enough to buy the entire team Rolex watches yesterday for Christmas and he only played 16 minutes? It doesn’t make any sense, but Scott Brooks was quoted last night saying that John Wall is “Ready to take off.” A game against the worst team in the league against opposing Point Guards feels like the right spot to take off and I think I will trust Brooks here. It seemed that this game just got out of hand for the Wizards, so they didn’t see a need to extend Wall. If we find out, he is being monitored I won’t play him but if we hear he is good to go no restrictions Wall should be an elite play on this slate. Bradley Beal draws a good matchup but again I just hate paying that price tag for such a point dependent player. He is averaging 38 DK points in his last 5 games and should be a safe option. He’s a solid secondary play for me on this slate. The only other option that I have a little interest in would be Marcin Gortat. I typically hate rostering him, but he is cheap and should draw Vucevic defense. Not my favorite play on the board but I think at his price and in this matchup, you can get exposure if you need a cheap Center.
Notable Injuries None
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.3 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.1 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,500 | $8,700 | $16,400 | 40.9 | -4.6 | 33.7 | -3.0 | 1.21 | 29.2% | 26 | 30 | 26 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,400 | $7,800 | $15,000 | 36.7 | 4.9 | 35.5 | 3.5 | 1.03 | 26.9% | 28 | 28 | 14 |
| Otto Porter | $6,700 | $5,900 | $11,200 | 30.6 | -13.3 | 31.5 | -13.5 | 0.97 | 17.3% | 28 | 20 | 30 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 18.8 | 0.4 | 23.1 | -0.5 | 0.81 | 17.6% | 22 | 30 | 17 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,500 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 25.2 | 3.7 | 28.3 | -0.8 | 0.89 | 13.5% | 22 | 12 | 4 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,400 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 22.3 | 0.6 | 27.7 | 2.2 | 0.81 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike Scott | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 16.6 | 11.8 | 19.2 | 7.6 | 0.87 | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal
Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Dallas Mavericks | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.8 | Implied Team Total | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 27 | DvP | 16 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 1 | 19 | 14 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 28 | 28 | 28 | 9 | 18 | |
Dallas Mavericks
I always like to mention that this is not a team I love to roster and maybe there is some bias here in my analysis. I only typically roster Mavericks if it’s a dream matchup and there are injuries which open value on the Mavs. There are not injuries opening value here, but this is a good matchup against a bad Hawks team. Atlanta is ranked 24th in points allowed per game, 27th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential. That is not good but on the opposite side the Mavs offense is not the greatest, ranked 27th in the league in points per game.
The guards are priced up for when Dennis Smith Jr. was hurt and are now too crowded for me to have a ton of interest. If I played any guards on Dallas it would be Dennis Smith Jr. who is cheap because he is coming back from injury. I think Harrison Barnes is a fine play, but I just prefer other plays in that price range, so he won’t make my player pool on this slate. If I played any Dallas player I would go cheap for Dirk Nowitzki on DK for only $4500 and $4900 on FD. The Hawks are ranked 27th in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing centers and are ranked 27th in team opponent three point %. This all plays into Dirk being a good play that I expect to have a safe x4 game with built in upside here because hey he’s Dirk and can turn the clock back if he gets going. I like this spot for Dirk even off a second night of a back to back and think he can have a big game here. This will be the only Dallas player that I get exposure to in tournaments.
Notable Injuries None
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 99.7 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (14 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 (6 of 24)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $5,300 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 25.9 | 1.6 | 27.8 | -6.7 | 0.93 | 27.2% | 22 | 11 | 30 |
| Wesley Matthews | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 22.1 | -2.7 | 34.4 | -1.4 | 0.64 | 15.7% | 8 | 26 | 1 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,800 | $6,500 | $12,700 | 31.5 | 0.2 | 34.9 | -1.0 | 0.90 | 21.8% | 30 | 25 | 19 |
| Maxi Kleber | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 19.2 | 8.7 | 0.70 | 11.1% | 19 | 24 | 14 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $4,900 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 22.2 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 0.5 | 0.88 | 18.0% | 23 | 27 | 8 |
| J.J. Barea | $4,900 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.5 | -0.1 | 22.7 | 0.8 | 1.03 | 25.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Yogi Ferrell | $4,900 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 18.8 | 8.4 | 29.1 | 5.1 | 0.65 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dirk Nowitzki
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are not a fun roster in fantasy and they get an unappealing matchup against Dallas. The Mavs one of the slower paced teams in the league and I expect this game to have a low total when the Vegas totals come out. I really don’t want to roster anyone on the Hawks on a twelve-game slate but if Dennis Schroder sits we are going to have to look at some of the value plays on Atlanta.
Isiah Taylor and Malcom Delaney would instantly be in play and values that we can’t ignore. The problem is that we can’t trust these plays unless we 100% get word before lock that Schroder is out. Even if he is ruled out I wouldn’t be surprised if Schroder got ruled in after games lock. We were told yesterday he was available before 7:00 PM EST and then after he was ruled out. Unless we get news, we can’t really consider these value plays. Kent Bazemore ran some point guard last night and didn’t have the best game but he has upside at this price. I think he is the safest and best tournament play on this team which makes me list him as a secondary option. He will be the only Hawk I look at playing unless I get news on Schroder. The Mavs are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, so I get if you want to look at some Hawks bigs, but I just think there are better plays on this slate than messing around with John Collins and Ersan Ilyasova. This is not a game I would get too much exposure to and is likely one that I will do my best to avoid unless value opens.
Notable Injuries Dennis Schroder (?)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (17 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 (17 of 24)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,800 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 33.9 | 1.8 | 32.0 | 0.8 | 1.06 | 28.7% | 22 | 16 | 28 |
| Kent Bazemore | $6,300 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 28.9 | 8.1 | 28.7 | 0.2 | 1.01 | 19.7% | 6 | 12 | 28 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,700 | $6,300 | $13,200 | 25.7 | 0.3 | 31.1 | -0.2 | 0.83 | 17.0% | 23 | 13 | 28 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,400 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 20.6 | 0.2 | 23.7 | 5.2 | 0.87 | 16.3% | 5 | 18 | 9 |
| Miles Plumlee | $4,300 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 12.1 | 2.9 | 16.8 | 5.5 | 0.72 | 10.5% | 25 | 22 | 18 |
| John Collins | $6,500 | $5,500 | $10,900 | 24.9 | 2.5 | 22.9 | -0.8 | 1.09 | 16.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marco Belinelli | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 19.3 | -7.6 | 24.1 | -8.5 | 0.80 | 19.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.0 | Implied Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 7 | DvP | 18 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 19 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 26 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 3 | 24 | 21 | 24 | |
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls had their crazy win streak snapped the other day by the Cavaliers and only lost by three points. They get a shot at the struggling Celtics who they beat during their win streak already. Despite all the injuries Boston is ranked second in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. They are also 25th in paced and all this adds up to not a ton of fantasy production. I don’t think targeting Bulls is the greatest idea but some of them are still in play.
I can’t really explain what Kris Dunn is doing but this guy is on fire and has been a major key to the Bulls success. I think he is overpriced on FanDuel but on DraftKings for only $6900 we get a player averaging 37.7 DK points in his last five games. That sounds like a nice value to me even if it’s against the number one team in the league against opposing point guards. I know Dunn only had 23 DK points last time against Boston, but I think at Dunn’s price on DK he is a safe secondary option. The upside might be a little capped because of the matchup but I don’t hate him. Mirotic is too priced up for me and the only way I would play him is if Markkanen randomly got ruled out. If I had to pick any other Bulls players to get exposure to it would be Justin Holiday because of his cheap price tag. The $5000 range for a player with upside is too cheap and I think he is a decent deep tournament flier. I don’t target the Celtics a ton because they are so good on the defensive end, but they are struggling recently, and I don’t hate mixing in some of these high upside guys in your tournaments.
Notable Injuries None
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 99.7 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.0 (20 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (11 of 24)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $7,900 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 31.3 | 5.7 | 28.5 | 1.0 | 1.10 | 24.2% | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,100 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 26.9 | 0.4 | 33.7 | 1.2 | 0.80 | 17.7% | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Denzel Valentine | $5,100 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 21.8 | 2.3 | 28.6 | -2.5 | 0.76 | 16.2% | 2 | 9 | 2 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,600 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 28.0 | -2.9 | 30.1 | -5.1 | 0.93 | 20.1% | 15 | 6 | 2 |
| Robin Lopez | $4,900 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 24.5 | -0.5 | 29.9 | -3.6 | 0.82 | 18.1% | 9 | 7 | 1 |
| Bobby Portis | $4,600 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 23.9 | 2.9 | 21.2 | -1.2 | 1.13 | 22.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nikola Mirotic | $6,800 | $6,500 | $13,300 | 31.2 | 2.4 | 25.6 | 0.0 | 1.22 | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David Nwaba | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 19.8 | -2.1 | 23.4 | 0.8 | 0.85 | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (DK only) and Justin Holiday
Boston Celtics
The struggling Boston Celtics come into this game on a two-game losing streak and 5-5 in their last ten games. The Celtics get a matchup against the Bulls who recently lost their 6-game win streak against Cleveland. The Bulls are ranked 18th in points allowed per game, 20th in defensive efficiency, 19th in rebounding differential and 15th in pace. I expect this game to be competitive based on the way both teams have been playing recently but the more and more I look at the Celtics prices I am not all that interested in too many plays.
To have interest in Boston players I think that we need Jaylen Brown to be out. If Brown sits Marcus Smart instantly becomes the best play on Boston and would be an elite play on DraftKings and only a secondary play on FanDuel. Kyrie Irving is a matchup proof type of guy who has a 30% usage, but this is not my favorite spot for him. Even if Brown is out I don’t think I will get a ton of exposure to him because I think my point guard slots will already be taken up by other players. There isn’t a ton of value in the price tags on Horford and Tatum either. Boston feels like a spot to really stay away from unless we get news on Jaylen Brown. Keep a close eye on that news up until lock. If he sits Smart is the best play for me if not I think we can get away with playing no Boston plays on this slate.
Notable Injuries Marcus Morris (out) and Jaylen Brown (questionable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (7 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (4 of 24)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,900 | $8,800 | $16,700 | 37.9 | 1.0 | 32.3 | 1.1 | 1.17 | 30.0% | 24 | 18 | 5 |
| Jaylen Brown | $6,200 | $5,500 | $11,200 | 26.1 | -3.2 | 31.3 | -0.6 | 0.84 | 17.9% | 16 | 21 | 3 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,600 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 26.7 | 4.7 | 30.5 | 1.3 | 0.88 | 15.5% | 24 | 21 | 24 |
| Al Horford | $7,300 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 34.0 | -3.9 | 32.6 | -0.8 | 1.04 | 18.1% | 28 | 21 | 21 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 14.9 | -2.8 | 18.5 | 3.7 | 0.81 | 14.0% | 19 | 19 | 24 |
| Marcus Smart | $6,000 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 24.1 | 1.1 | 30.7 | 1.6 | 0.78 | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |