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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, February 27 - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-02-27 22:44:25

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Detroit at Milwaukee – 08:30 PM

Detroit Milwaukee
detroitnba Vegas Total 203 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 203
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 97.91 Team Pace 96.64
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj Starter O. J. Mayo Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Miles Plumlee
Opp. Season 7 26 25 23 9 Opp. Season 12 10 2 16 10
Opp. Last 7 13 21 12 16 2 Opp. Last 7 3 1 4 23 3

Detroit

Record: 29-29 — Road: 12-18 — Last 10: 4-6

I was a little surprised to see the Detroit team total at first as Milwaukee is a team I’ve been picking on. However, Detroit has really been struggling recently and has been a poor road team, while Milwaukee has been great at home so it does make sense.

The Bucks have slipped across the board defensively this year, and the Pistons starters always see solid minutes. I don’t necessarily mind Reggie Jackson or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope but their matchups don’t stand out, and I’m targeting the Pistons other three starters. Stanley Johnson and Anthony Tolliver are both out and with Ersan Ilyasova traded, we can projected big minutes for Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond (GPP)

He’s in the same boat as Towns for me as I love his upside and I’ll get tournament exposure to both, but for cash games their price is tough to squeeze in. Milwaukee is not a good rebounding team and Drummond has shown elite upside in the first two meetings. He put up 15 points and 15 rebounds in only 24 minutes in the first matchup, and then put up 17 points and 23 rebounds in the second meeting.

FD — $8,500— C
DK — $8,200– C
Min/Game —Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 40.2

Tobias Harris

Harris is another guy that I’m really targeting as his price fits nicely alongside some of the high end options. He’s been inserted into the starting lineup and with all of the Pistons injuries, should play at least 35 minutes. This is a revenge game against one of his former teams ,and Milwaukee has really struggled against PF. He’s also settling in very nicely with 30 fantasy points in three straight games.

FD — $5,900— SF
DK — $6,400– SF
Min/Game —Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 26.8

Secondary Plays

Marcus Morris

Like Harris, we can project Morris at big minutes tonight, and while he’s not a high fantasy point per minute guy, his minutes bring a nice fantasy floor. In terms of DVP this is a solid matchup so I don’t mind him here, but I would much prefer Harris.

FD — $5,400— SF
DK — $5,500– SF
Min/Game —Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 23.9

Milwaukee

Record: 24-34 — Home: 16-9 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bucks continue to play disappointing basketball,but they will return home, where they have actually been pretty good. Their team total is sitting at a solid 102 points, which is 3.8 points higher than their season average.

The Pistons aren’t necessarily a team I avoid, but I also don’t go out of my way to target players against them as they have been solid defensively this year. Guys like Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo normally interest me a lot as I love their minute security. However, they aren’t cheap and if I’m spending $7,000 to $8,000 tonight, I really want that elite matchup as their prices take away from being able to roster the elite options like Curry, Westbrook and Durant.

Elite Plays

Jabari Parker

Parker is the guy I’m really eyeing here as he offers the minute security like Middleton and Giannis, but is cheaper and draws a better matchup. He’s seen a huge 12 minute bump in minutes over his past five games, and draws a solid matchup with Tobias Harris. He wont’ break the bank and also has shown 40 fantasy point upside recently so he’s one of the top mid-range options tonight.

FD — $5,700— PF
DK — $6,500– PF
Min/Game —Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 41.4
FP/Game — Season: 21.7

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe

I debated whether to even list him here or not as it’s always tough to trust Jason Kidd and I prefer Drummond and Towns if I’m spending. However, this is a revenge game and he does offer 40 fantasy point potential,depending on his minutes. In the two meetings with Detroit this year, he’s averaging 41.8 DK PPG so he’s in play on DK today.

FD — $7,900— C
DK — $7,200– C
Min/Game —Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 33.6

Brooklyn at Utah – 09:30 PM

Brooklyn Utah
brooklynnba Vegas Total 195 utahnba Vegas Total 195
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 92.0 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 96.84 Team Pace 93.16
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opp. Season 8 2 3 1 3 Opp. Season 27 20 20 21 23
Opp. Last 7 6 24 16 4 16 Opp. Last 7 17 20 5 13 13

Brooklyn

Record: 16-42 — Road: 5-20 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nets are coming off of a win against Phoenix, but are in a very bad spot tonight. Their team total is sitting at just 92 points, which is lowest on the night, and this game looks like a potential blowout.

The Nets did waive Joe Johnson, which will open up minutes for Bojan Bogdanovich and Markel Brown. However, I hate this spot for the Nets and I’m not sure how they are going to score. They rely on Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young for points, but they will have very tough sledding against the Jazz elite interior defense. For that reason, I’ll be avoiding the Nets and Rockets tonight. The only play I’m semi-debating is Markel Brown as I think this game could get out of hand, so he could see 4th quarter run against Utah’s backups.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Utah

Record: 28-29 — Road: 19-11 — Last 10: 6-4

The Jazz were drilled for the third time by the Spurs, but they get a great bounce back spot against the Nets and should roll here.

On paper, this is a really nice spot for the Jazz as the Nets are a poor defense across the board. However, I am worried about a blowout here, which has me worried about Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors a little bit. Rodney Hood draws a solid matchup but his usage has gone down since the return of Favors, while his price has remained the same so I’ll pass. I’m viewing Rudy Gobert in a similar manner as he’s struggled recently and a potential blowout concerns me. I don’t hate the play as it’s solid DVP matchup but personally I’m more likely to either spend at center or punt the position.

Elite Plays

Shelvin Mack

It’s weird listing Mack as an elite play, but I do think he’ll be highly owned and I’m trying to highlight a few of the top cheap options given the presence of Curry, Westbrook, and Durant. In his three games with the Jazz he’s averaging just over 20 FD PPG and has taken over the starting role. This game could turn into a blowout, but he has a great DVP matchup, and he will be less affected by the blowout due to his low price point.

FD — $3,700— PG
DK — $4,500– PG
Min/Game —Season: 9.7 | Last Three Games: 28.0
FP/Game — Season: 9.0

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward

Hayward’s price has dipped back down to levels where I am more willing to use him. He’s coming off of a terrible game against San Antonio, but that was to be expected. I really like the matchup and may get some tournament exposure, but I’m pretty worried he could spend the majority of the 4th quarter on the bench in a blowout

FD — $7,300— SF
DK — $7,000– SF
Min/Game —Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 31.8

Derrick Favors

Favors is in the same boat as Hayward in that I like his individual matchup, but the blowout worries me. He has the ability to dominate this team while he’s in there and has played very well over his past four games. However, for cash games I’d rather grab Draymond or drop down to guys like Jabari, Dieng or Randolph.

FD — $7,700— PF
DK — $7,500– PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 33.2
FP/Game — Season: 33.1

Memphis at Phoenix – 09:30 PM

Memphis Phoenix
memphisnba Vegas Total 207 phoenixnba Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd -6.5 Vegas Sprd 6.5
Team Proj. 107.0 Team Proj. 100.5
Team Pace 95.33 Team Pace 100.45
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley P.J. Hairston Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Brandan Wright Proj Starter Ronnie Price Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Mirza Teletovic Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 29 29 30 14 7 Opp. Season 10 5 14 11 1
Opp. Last 7 29 27 17 30 27 Opp. Last 7 19 12 2 5 6

Memphis

Record: 34-23 — Road: 13-14 — Last 10: 7-3

The Grizzlies are living right as they’ve faced the Lakers twice in a row, and now head to Phoenix to face an awful Phoenix team.

The Suns are bad in every category so this is another spot to take a hard look at Memphis. Guys like P. J. Hairston and Vince Carter have been shooting the lights out and draw quality matchups. However, prior to jumping on board, I’d look into Allen’s status as his return would put a dent in their minutes. Also, both have been red-hot from three and don’t offer many peripherals, which is also worrisome if/when they cool off. The other big news to note is that Brandan Wright moved into the starting lineup last night.

Elite Plays

Zach Randolph

Randolph will carry a much heavier offensive load with Marc Gasol out and his offensive production has seen an uptick recently. PF has some solid options today but along with guys Parker, Dieng, he stands out in the mid-range.

FD — $6,500— PF
DK — $7,000– PF
Min/Game —Season: | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 26.6

Secondary Plays

Brandan Wright

As mentioned he drew the start last night but played just 18 minutes as the game did get out of hand. I’ve debated between elite and secondary for him but he has shown solid fantasy production in the past. He’s averaging just 20 MPG over his past two games but is averaging 22 FD points, although that did come against the Lakers. The brightside is that his mathcup against Phoenix is also very good.

FD — $3,700— C
DK — $3,800– PF
Min/Game —Season: | Last Five Games: 19
FP/Game — Season:

Mike Conley

Unlike the previous few nights, I think he’ll be low owned as PG seems like a position to spend up at or to punt with a guy like Shelvin Mack. Conley does tend to lack upside, but he’s picked up more usage with Gasol out and has topped 40 fantasy points in two of his last four games. He should roast whoever the Suns throw out there at PG, but I do worry he plays facilitator in a game the Grizzlies should handle easily. I do like his tournament upside though as if the Grizzlies wings cool off, this game could stay more competitive and he could be forced to be more aggressive.

FD — $6,900— PG
DK — $7,300– PG
Min/Game —Season: | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season:

Phoenix

Record: 14-44 — Home: 10-21 — Last 10: 0-10

The Suns are a complete disaster and just lost to the Nets at home. To make matters worse, the minutes of their starters have started to fluctuate making them a risky team to target.

I’m expecting to see the Grizzlies fall off defensively, but the problem is that the Suns are a terrible offensive team and are playing lots of guys. They did make a lineup switch in the 2nd half last night starting Mirza Teletovic over Jon Leuer so monitor whether that is a permanent move.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Mirza Teletovic

If he starts again then I think he’s an elite option, but if he doesn’t then I feel a little bit safer trying to get up to guys like Parker, Dieng and Randolph, as Mirza’s matchup isn’t great. However, the Suns need offense and that is the one thing he can provide so he should continue to see shots and minutes. He’s coming off of a monster 40 fantasy point game, which did come against the Nets, but he has now produced 20 fantasy points in five straight games.

FD — $4,600— PF
DK — $5,300– SF
Min/Game —Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 27.2
FP/Game — Season: 16.5

Ronnie Price

Along with Shelvin Mack, Ronnie Price is the other punt option at PG. I think Mack is the much safer option, while Price maybe offers more upside so I pivoting to Price in tournaments is an option. His minutes are on the rise and he’s blown away value in two straight games. However, the matchup is tough against Mike Conley, and the Suns do have several options at PG so his minutes are not secure and he’s been a borderline NBA player over the course of his career.

FD — $3,900— PG
DK — $4,000– PG
Min/Game —Season: 16.1 | Last Five Games: 27.0
FP/Game — Season: 10.9

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a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)