NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 6th - Page Two
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Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards – 8:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 4 | DvP | 11 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 8 | 15 | 1 | 21 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 13 | 25 | 28 | 3 | 3 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks will travel to Washington to take on a hot Wizards team that has won their last four games. Milwaukee comes in as 4.5-point road underdogs and on their third game in four nights and on a second half of a back to back. This game has a 214.5 total but isn’t one of my favorite games on the slate. The Wizards are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and have improved their defensive efficiency throughout the year. The Wizards are also on their third game in four nights on a second half of a back to back as well. I expect some tired legs on both sides and I don’t love this game, but there are still some fantasy options to discuss.
I am fading Giannis Antetokounmpo – you couldn’t pay me to play him. I didn’t want to play him all day yesterday and fell on him with late news breaking on FanDuel and it really aggravated me. There seems to be something wrong with him since that knee injury, but I don’t know what. His production is down, and I am just going to let him prove to me that he is healthy. If I play any Bucks here it is going to be Middleton or Bledsoe. If I side with anyone here it would be Eric Bledsoe because of his upside and usage. The price is still fair as well but again I really don’t think I will roster any Bucks on this slate. I think Bledsoe and Middleton are secondary plays though and I will list them as so
Notable Injuries None
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.9 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,200 | $7,000 | $13,200 | 33.8 | 0.2 | 31.3 | -0.9 | 1.08 | 24.4% | 6 | 14 | 8 |
| Tony Snell | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 16.0 | -0.5 | 30.5 | -3.9 | 0.52 | 9.8% | 9 | 5 | 15 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,200 | $6,900 | $13,000 | 35.4 | -1.4 | 37.3 | 0.6 | 0.95 | 22.5% | 9 | 18 | 1 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,000 | $10,500 | $18,400 | 54.4 | -7.9 | 37.9 | -0.2 | 1.44 | 28.5% | 20 | 3 | 21 |
| John Henson | $5,000 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.1 | 3.2 | 24.2 | 3.1 | 0.95 | 13.1% | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $4,900 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.9 | 0.5 | 30.3 | -0.9 | 0.79 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe
Washington Wizards
The Wizards come into this game riding a four-game winning streak and get a matchup against a struggling Bucks team. Milwaukee is currently ranked 20th in points allowed per game but are 21st in pace. This is not my favorite game to target especially with both teams coming into this game on a third game in four nights on the second half of a back to back.
The big news here is will Otto Porter play on this slate?? If he does play, this will take most the Wizards out of play for me but if he doesn’t play I will have some more interest in Wizards. I already like enough point guards so John Wall won’t become a play for me, but Bradley Beal will be interesting especially against a Bucks team that struggles against wing players. Beal is also a good play on a site like FanDuel where your forced to play two Shooting Guards. If Porter sits, Kelly Oubre would be a nice cheap forward option that would gain a nice usage bump. This is not a game that I love to roster today because I think the other games are just better spots.
Notable Injuries Otto Porter (questionable)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.7 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,200 | $8,700 | $16,200 | 39.9 | 1.1 | 33.3 | 1.7 | 1.20 | 28.4% | 7 | 11 | 13 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,600 | $7,800 | $14,300 | 36.9 | 10.2 | 35.4 | 1.4 | 1.04 | 26.6% | 16 | 7 | 25 |
| Otto Porter | $6,700 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 30.8 | 5.3 | 31.5 | 3.9 | 0.98 | 16.9% | 9 | 1 | 28 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,900 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 19.3 | 3.2 | 24.3 | 4.4 | 0.80 | 16.8% | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,600 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 24.2 | -4.7 | 27.2 | -3.8 | 0.89 | 13.5% | 29 | 20 | 3 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,100 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 22.5 | -0.5 | 27.1 | -6.3 | 0.83 | 16.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal and Kelly Oubre (if Porter sits)
New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves – 9:00 PM ET
| New Orleans Pelicans | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.0 |  | Vegas Total | 217.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | Projected Starters | Tyus Jones | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 13 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 19 | DvP | 21 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 10 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 17 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 8 | |
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans get a matchup against a Timberwolves team who are on a third game in four nights on the second half of a back to back. I really like the Pelicans in this spot and think this is a great time to take advantage of the price tags on DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis.
One thing I love about this matchup for Cousins and Davis is that the Timberwolves will play Towns and Gibson a pile of minutes. Cousins and Davis minutes are secure, but I expect them to play a bunch of minutes here against a team that struggles defensively. Davis is only $9900 on DraftKings and is an elite play on both sites. He draws a tough matchup on paper, but I really think his size advantage against Gibson should help him on the boards, for blocks and on the three-point line. I love Davis in this spot and he is one of my favorite spend up options. Cousins is a great one too, but with a lot of centers to like I lean Davis if you force me to pick. Either way, both are elite plays for me. Jrue Holiday likely gets guarded by Jimmy Butler and I think he becomes a good option to just stay away from. The price looks appealing, but I won’t bite. Rajon Rondo is interesting in tournaments and has upside, but I don’t think I have the courage to roster him on this slate. There are other point guards I already prefer and don’t think he is necessary.
Notable Injuries None
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 111.1 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $5,800 | $5,800 | $11,600 | 25.2 | 5.2 | 24.9 | 0.0 | 1.01 | 17.0% | 15 | 13 | 1 |
| Jrue Holiday | $7,000 | $6,500 | $12,000 | 34.1 | -2.4 | 36.5 | -0.8 | 0.93 | 20.2% | 22 | 11 | 1 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,400 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 21.5 | 0.9 | 32.3 | 1.7 | 0.67 | 14.3% | 12 | 7 | 28 |
| Anthony Davis | $11,200 | $9,900 | $18,200 | 49.5 | 9.2 | 35.4 | 2.5 | 1.40 | 24.0% | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $11,200 | $10,800 | $19,000 | 52.8 | 6.6 | 35.4 | 1.5 | 1.49 | 27.7% | 26 | 19 | 17 |
| Jameer Nelson | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 14.9 | -10.0 | 23.3 | -8.2 | 0.64 | 12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins
Secondary Plays – None
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves get a nice bump in pace going up against the sixth fastest team in the league. With Jeff Teague still out, this gives a nice bump to most the starters. The Pelicans are ranked 28th in points allowed per game, 24th in defensive efficiency and 19th in rebounding differential. The Pelicans play at the 6th fastest paced and this is a great spot to target Timberwolves.
Jimmy Butler is only $8200 and an elite play on DraftKings I don’t love his price on FanDuel but he certainly has upside. We love to target Pelicans with Wing players, so Butler would be a great play in this spot and someone we should not overlook. I also think with Teague out Wiggins is an interesting play. He is seeing more shot opportunities and is a wing player in one of the better matchups in the league for wings. Wiggins is a good tournament play at his price and someone to not go overlooked. I like him more on FanDuel where I am forced to play two Shooting Guards. Tyus Jones will get Rajon Rondo defense which is always a profitable strategy. I love Jones value on DraftKings and think he is a good play on FanDuel. The last two plays to discuss are Karl Anthony-Towns and Taj Gibson. Both will have to see a ton of minutes going up against Cousins and Davis. The Pelicans are ranked in the top ten against opposing Centers and I think Cousins could get Towns into some foul trouble I also like a lot of other Centers and think Towns price is a little steep compared to other options. I like Gibson more but think he is more of a safe cash game play at his price. He gets a great matchup though against a Pelicans team that is ranked 28th against opposing Power Forwards. The sum things up getting exposure to the Timberwolves in a fast-paced game makes a lot of sense and something that should not go overlooked.
Notable Injuries Jeff Teague (out)
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.4 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.9 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyus Jones | $5,600 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 14.1 | 9.3 | 18.1 | 13.5 | 0.78 | 12.2% | 23 | 21 | 23 |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,800 | $8,200 | $15,200 | 40.2 | 5.9 | 37.3 | -0.8 | 1.08 | 23.9% | 27 | 26 | 7 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $5,700 | $5,800 | $11,900 | 28.9 | 2.2 | 36.3 | -2.2 | 0.79 | 21.0% | 18 | 26 | 29 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,800 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 26.8 | -0.9 | 33.6 | 0.4 | 0.80 | 12.7% | 22 | 28 | 2 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,000 | $8,800 | $16,000 | 42.4 | -0.2 | 35.7 | -0.5 | 1.19 | 19.8% | 20 | 10 | 8 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 15.5 | -0.4 | 18.8 | 2.3 | 0.82 | 22.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler and Tyus Jones
Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins and Taj Gibson
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Sacramento Kings | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -5.5 | Vegas Spread | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Wilson Chandler | Mason Plumlee | Nikola Jokic | Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | George Hill | Garrett Temple | Skal Labissiere | Zach Randolph | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 29 | DvP | 28 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 11 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 29 | 24 | 18 | 26 | 26 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 2 | |
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are not in a great spot going up against a Kings team that plays at a slow pace. This is a 206.5 team total and not one I really want to target a ton. Mike Malone said recently that he is running too tight of a rotation and needs to get players more looks. That has me slightly concerned on what the Nuggets could do because Mike Malone can do some wacky things sometimes.
I normally like Jokic at this price but it is not necessary with so many good center options. Gary Harris is a safe cash game play if you need a shooting guard but again I don’t love this pace and don’t think he is necessary. He is a secondary play for me that I don’t mind. If you are playing multiple lineups I think Mason Plumlee is an interesting cheap tournament play that you can get a little bit of exposure to. If he sees 20 minutes he could really pay off his price and I think this game could go big. If it does Plumlee should get enough minutes to be a good tournament play. Trey Lyles has been great this year, but he is a little too priced up for me in this matchup. Again, I don’t think we need to get too much exposure to this game and I would keep it simple. Just mix and match some of these plays if you think they are too cheap. Instead of playing the guessing game here I think we can focus on better games with higher totals on the slate.
Notable Injuries None
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.9 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.9 (13 of 16)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.7 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.4 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $7,000 | $6,600 | $12,400 | 25.4 | 11.2 | 28.7 | 8.2 | 0.89 | 22.5% | 17 | 9 | 29 |
| Gary Harris | $6,800 | $6,400 | $12,800 | 29.5 | 2.4 | 34.7 | 2.6 | 0.85 | 18.2% | 12 | 20 | 24 |
| Wilson Chandler | $5,500 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 21.2 | 1.8 | 31.2 | 1.6 | 0.68 | 13.9% | 21 | 22 | 18 |
| Mason Plumlee | $5,300 | $4,300 | $8,100 | 20.3 | 2.3 | 20.2 | 2.9 | 1.00 | 14.9% | 26 | 18 | 26 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,700 | $8,500 | $15,400 | 38.8 | 3.0 | 30.5 | 4.5 | 1.27 | 21.0% | 28 | 29 | 26 |
| Will Barton | $6,300 | $5,700 | $11,400 | 30.3 | 0.4 | 31.0 | -0.7 | 0.98 | 20.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Trey Lyles | $6,400 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 18.0 | 13.2 | 18.8 | 10.3 | 0.96 | 17.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Gary Harris
Sacramento Kings
The Kings get a boost in pace but not one where I am going to go out of my way and roster a ton of Kings. The Kings go into this game with the lowest total on the slate and not one that I am looking to get exposure to. The Kings have not run a tight rotation and have been frustrating for most the year.
George Hill missed practice on Friday for personal reasons and could that could make De’Aaron Fox a great tournament play. His minutes would be more secure and at his price he will be a secondary option for me. I don’t feel safe about many Kings but at Fox price I could see him having enough upside to be interesting. Zach Randolph could also have upside at this price but I already like other power forwards in this range I just don’t think I am going to load up on him. I will list him as a secondary play too because I do think that he does have upside here and if the Nuggets go big, Randolph could see a pile of minutes and have a good game. Other than that, I don’t think we need to play any other Kings with enough good plays already on this slate.
Notable Injuries George Hill (missed practice due to personal reasons)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 97.4 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (2 of 16)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 19.6 | 7.0 | 25.4 | 7.4 | 0.77 | 21.4% | 24 | 28 | 22 |
| George Hill | $4,600 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 19.6 | -3.4 | 27.1 | 2.8 | 0.72 | 16.2% | 22 | 2 | 2 |
| Garrett Temple | $4,200 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 17.0 | 3.1 | 25.0 | -0.1 | 0.68 | 14.8% | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| Skal Labissiere | $4,200 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 15.4 | 4.8 | 16.4 | 5.0 | 0.94 | 19.7% | 17 | 23 | 15 |
| Zach Randolph | $5,500 | $6,000 | $12,000 | 28.2 | -2.7 | 25.5 | -3.5 | 1.11 | 24.8% | 18 | 11 | 2 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $4,600 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 19.4 | 6.3 | 25.5 | 2.6 | 0.76 | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $6,900 | $6,100 | $12,400 | 26.2 | 6.3 | 26.0 | 3.5 | 1.01 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |