NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 6th
Jump to Page 1 2
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers – 3:30 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | Los Angeles Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | Projected Starters | Milos Teodosic | C.J. Williams | Wesley Johnson | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 8 | 30 | 15 | 17 | 15 | DvP | 16 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 24 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 15 | 16 | 10 | 1 | 2 | |
Golden State Warriors
Keep in mind as I write the early games that this is part of a two-game slate. With Kevin Durant listed as questionable that is clearly going to be the most important news on this slate. The Warriors are the best offense in the league and have lots of studs to pay for, so you better believe you are going to want a lot of Warriors in your lineup with Durant questionable. For the amount of shot attempts Klay Thompson is taking he is just too cheap if Durant is out. Klay also has one of the best matchups on the board against the Clippers who are ranked 30th against opposing Shooting Guards. Klay at this price, has big tournament upside and would be someone that I wouldn’t want to fade at his current price of $6600. Curry is expensive now, but he is such a safe play and if Durant’s out you can just go ahead and lock him in your lineup. If Durant plays, there is reason to fade because Kyrie Irving is only $1600 less in one of the best matchups against the Brooklyn Nets. It’s tough for me to see Curry not being on the winning team but if you need the money I don’t hate going down to Kyrie for the discount. Draymond Green is priced up but will be forced to play big minutes going up against Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. Draymond has a wide range of outcomes and if Durant is out I will load up on him because he will be needed a ton to matchup with the bigs. If Durant is in, I like the idea of playing Durant for lower ownership and then fading Draymond Green. Jordan Bell, David West or Zaza Pachulia could get some more run then you would expect. When facing teams with two bigs, the Warriors try to find some size to compete on the glass. If Durant is in, him and Draymond are enough size to get by with their small ball lineups but if Durant’s out I would expect one of them to be forced into a larger role. If Durant sits, I rank the Warriors as follows: Klay, Curry, Draymond Green, but I think playing all three in tournaments is viable. If Durant plays, I would rank them: Durant (lower ownership in tournaments likely), Curry, Klay, Draymond Green.
Notable Injuries Kevin Durant (questionable)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 115.4 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $10,000 | $10,000 | 45.5 | 2.7 | 32.6 | -0.3 | 1.40 | 28.9% | 14 | 8 | 2 | |
| Klay Thompson | $7,300 | $6,600 | 32.0 | 2.2 | 34.1 | 2.0 | 0.94 | 21.3% | 18 | 30 | 4 | |
| Kevin Durant | $10,700 | $9,800 | 48.5 | -1.6 | 34.7 | 1.0 | 1.40 | 26.8% | 25 | 15 | 4 | |
| Draymond Green | $8,500 | $7,700 | 36.5 | 1.7 | 31.9 | -2.0 | 1.15 | 16.3% | 13 | 17 | 25 | |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,600 | $3,400 | 14.9 | 2.7 | 14.6 | 1.4 | 1.02 | 14.0% | 16 | 15 | 9 | |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,300 | $4,100 | 18.7 | -1.3 | 26.3 | -0.6 | 0.71 | 11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson
Secondary Plays – Draymond Green
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are always almost healthy and then an injury strikes again. Blake Griffin came back and now Austin Rivers went down and Milos Teodosic is questionable. This is a great pace up game for the Clippers and on a two-game slate I would assume you are playing some of the Warriors star players. If that’s the case I would make sure to run it back with some Clippers. If I run it back with any Clippers my favorite options are DeAndre Jordan and Lou Williams. Williams is going to be forced into a huge role. Lou Williams has tons of upside when there are shots to go around and I like him a lot in this spot. It’s not that I don’t like Blake Griffin, but I lean DeAndre Jordan because the price is low, and I expect him to have a lot of rebound opportunities with tons of put backs going against the Warriors. Griffin is a better play on sites where you need to play two power forwards. It’s a two-game slate, so I am sure you can gamble on the cheap Clippers that could get some big playing time due to injuries. If I had to pick, it would probably be Jawun Evans for cheap because I would assume he would get blow out run as well.
Notable Injuries Milos Teodosic (questionable) and Austin Rivers (out)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Teodosic | $5,400 | $4,900 | 19.6 | -1.0 | 24.4 | 1.6 | 0.80 | 19.7% | 12 | 16 | 15 | |
| C.J. Williams | $3,700 | $3,800 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 18.6 | 11.5 | 0.59 | 12.0% | 4 | 9 | 16 | |
| Wesley Johnson | $3,700 | $4,000 | 17.5 | -4.0 | 23.9 | -3.6 | 0.73 | 11.6% | 11 | 12 | 10 | |
| Blake Griffin | $9,100 | $8,200 | 41.4 | 0.9 | 35.4 | -1.9 | 1.17 | 27.9% | 9 | 21 | 1 | |
| DeAndre Jordan | $7,900 | $7,400 | 34.3 | 0.9 | 32.7 | 2.2 | 1.05 | 11.5% | 17 | 24 | 2 | |
| Lou Williams | $7,900 | $7,600 | 32.2 | 9.7 | 31.3 | 2.5 | 1.03 | 26.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lou Williams and DeAndre Jordan
Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin
Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets – 6:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -5.0 | Vegas Spread | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.8 | Implied Team Total | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.9 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Aron Baynes | Al Horford | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 17 | 20 | 26 | 28 | DvP | 1 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 6 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 19 | 3 | 22 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are on their third game in four nights and on a second night of a back to back. Also keep in mind that the weather in Boston and New York has had tons of snow recently so this travel could have been a disaster for the Celtics. If you think the Celtics will just blow out the Nets here, I would say what Lee Corso would say, not so fast! The Nets are only 5-point underdogs and the total has already gone down three points since the line opened. This is still the Brooklyn Nets though, and the Celtics get a massive boost in pace and we should be interested in a lot of Celtics from a DFS perspective. Kyrie Irving is a great play at $8400 and is a nice pivot off Curry if you need a cheaper option at PG. If you need an even cheaper point guard Terry Rozier has been great off the bench this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he helped close the game out. The Nets will go small and I’m sure the Celtics will match them. Rozier has been great recently and could be a nice source of value on this slate. Same things I said about Rozier goes for Marcus Smart who is way too cheap at $4900 on DraftKings. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are solid plays and fit this game environment very well. I think mixing and matching them in your lineups is a good idea, but I don’t love playing both together. They negatively correlate each other and with the recent playing time bump for Rozier that has eaten into their production a little bit. Al Horford should dominate in this matchup, but I do worry there is a slight chance he sits in this game. He went to the locker room last game but ended up closing the game. Maybe he is fine, but this is an earlier game and if Horford sits Baynes would be the biggest beneficiary. I’m assuming Horford plays and he’s a safe play, but I prefer “(player-popup #deandre-jordan)DeAndre Jordan”:/players/deandre-jordan-1486’s upside where they are priced similar.
Notable Injuries None
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.4 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.2 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,700 | $8,400 | 37.8 | 0.3 | 32.3 | 0.5 | 1.17 | 29.5% | 24 | 27 | 4 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $6,100 | $6,100 | 26.4 | 4.2 | 31.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | 17.8% | 22 | 17 | 19 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,800 | $5,900 | 26.6 | -0.4 | 31.1 | 3.4 | 0.86 | 15.6% | 7 | 20 | 3 | |
| Aron Baynes | $3,700 | $3,600 | 15.1 | 3.2 | 18.3 | 1.1 | 0.82 | 13.8% | 23 | 26 | 22 | |
| Al Horford | $7,400 | $7,500 | 33.7 | -2.2 | 32.5 | -0.4 | 1.04 | 17.7% | 27 | 28 | 16 | |
| Marcus Smart | $5,700 | $4,900 | 23.9 | 2.6 | 30.6 | 0.7 | 0.78 | 18.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Terry Rozier | $5,000 | $5,100 | 20.3 | 9.9 | 23.2 | -0.8 | 0.88 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart
Secondary Plays – Terry Rozier and Al Horford
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets are my least favorite team to roster on this two-game slate, so I will keep it simple in this analysis. The Celtics are the best defensive team in the league and not a team you want to target. If you mix in a play here and there I think that’s fine, but I wouldn’t go crazy. The Nets are a thin team, so there are some options we need to consider. Spender Dinwiddie at $6200 is very cheap and needs to be strongly considered. He is one of the higher usage players on the team and one of my favorite options on Brooklyn. If you can’t afford Dinwiddie and Levert is out, then you can look to Alan Crabbe who has produced well with Levert out. Demarre Carroll is also questionable and that could be a nice boost for Crabbe as well. The last Brooklyn player to consider is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson for only $6000. That’s a cheap price and I expect him to get a ton of minutes here. Mixing in Dinwiddie, Crabbe and Hollis-Jefferson is the approach I would take on this slate, but I wouldn’t be loading up on Nets on this slate.
Notable Injuries Caris Levert (doubtful) and DeMarre Carroll (questionable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.9 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -5.2 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.4 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $6,600 | $6,200 | 28.4 | 3.0 | 27.3 | 3.8 | 1.04 | 22.3% | 2 | 1 | 23 | |
| Allen Crabbe | $5,300 | $4,800 | 21.0 | 5.4 | 28.5 | 1.2 | 0.74 | 16.5% | 3 | 6 | 2 | |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,100 | $4,700 | 25.4 | -4.5 | 28.8 | 0.2 | 0.88 | 17.8% | 1 | 8 | 2 | |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,200 | $6,000 | 28.9 | 0.5 | 28.3 | 1.9 | 1.02 | 20.2% | 12 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,500 | $3,400 | 16.2 | 0.3 | 18.4 | -2.9 | 0.88 | 15.1% | 6 | 6 | 3 | |
| Joe Harris | $3,700 | $3,900 | 16.7 | 3.4 | 24.3 | 1.6 | 0.69 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (draftkings) and Allen Crabbe
Secondary Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (draftkings)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222.5 |  | Vegas Total | 222.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -9.5 | Vegas Spread | 9.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 116.0 | Implied Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Isaiah Thomas | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 28 | 19 | 29 | 23 | DvP | 22 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 12 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 27 | 26 | 30 | 27 | 24 | DRPM Rat. | N/A | 22 | 21 | 28 | 24 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
This is a dream matchup for the Cavaliers who have the highest implied total on the slate at 116. The Magic are ranked in the bottom five in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. This is one of the best teams in the league to target right now and you will want to make sure to have exposure to this game. The problem is with the return of Isiah Thomas we don’t have a huge sample of what this team is going to be.
LeBron James is in play on almost any slate. He is certainly in play on this one playing in the highest implied total and against a top ten paced team in the league that plays no defense. Based on the Rotogrinders CourtIq tool it seems that Lebron is not really affected much by Isaiah Thomas and in the 16 minutes they played together LeBron saw a boost in his numbers. It’s a small sample though, so I am going to take those stats with a grain of salt. Either way, I don’t think the addition of Isiah Thomas is going to hurt LeBron and he is an elite play. One last thing to note on LeBron – he tweeted out yesterday that he got the best massage in his life and he’s feeling like a slinky. I laughed at that one but was thinking to myself if I got the best massage of my life I’m sure I would feel nice and loose the next day. Hopefully that translates to a big game for LeBron!
Kevin Love should have a big day on the boards against the Magic who are ranked dead last in rebounding differential. Kevin Love really flashes his upside when he is hitting from downtown and the Magic are ranked 28th in the league at defending the three-point line. This is a fantastic spot for Kevin Love and that makes him an elite play on this slate. Isaiah Thomas is priced appropriately, and I think a fade for me until I know he is off a minutes restriction. The return of Thomas also should eat into Dwayne Wade’s playing time.
Notable Injuries None
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.0 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 6.1 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Thomas | $6,200 | $6,700 | $12,600 | 19.5 | 0.0 | 18.9 | 0.0 | 1.03 | 33.5% | 24 | 30 | 27 |
| J.R. Smith | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 17.0 | -1.2 | 30.0 | -2.9 | 0.57 | 11.7% | 30 | 28 | 26 |
| LeBron James | $11,700 | $11,600 | $20,800 | 54.4 | -3.2 | 37.2 | -1.8 | 1.46 | 29.7% | 29 | 19 | 30 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 16.4 | 5.0 | 26.0 | -0.4 | 0.63 | 13.7% | 21 | 29 | 27 |
| Kevin Love | $7,700 | $7,700 | $14,200 | 35.8 | -6.9 | 29.3 | -3.0 | 1.22 | 23.3% | 23 | 23 | 24 |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,000 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 24.4 | -4.1 | 23.5 | -2.4 | 1.04 | 23.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeff Green | $4,700 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 19.1 | 4.6 | 22.5 | 3.7 | 0.85 | 17.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James and Kevin Love
Secondary Plays – Jae Crowder (tournaments)
Orlando Magic
The Magic get a good matchup against a Cleveland team that is not the greatest at defending opposing teams. They are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game, 28th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in rebounding differential. This Cavs team could be different with Thomas returning, but I don’t think that will help them defensively because Thomas was never known for his defense.
With no Nikola Vucevic the offense really goes through Elfrid Payton who is one of my favorite tournament plays on DraftKings for $6700. On FanDuel, he is priced up where he is only a tournament play for me, but on DraftKings I love him in tournaments and might even consider embracing his volatility in cash games. I think he could have a massive game here against a Cleveland team that struggles at defending point guards. Payton is going to be an elite play for me on this slate. Fournier has struggled since returning from injury and at his price I am going to pass on him. I think he isn’t a bad play, but if I want to play anyone on Orlando I would prefer Payton. I might just be a little worried because everything I have read is that he is struggling but if his shots falling he could have a big game and be an interesting tournament play. Aaron Gordon is priced up too but does have upside. I think I would prefer putting him in a game stack and I want to get exposure to Gordon, but the price just feels a little too much for the risk that he carries. Bismack Biyombo is the last play on Orlando I will take a strong look at. I think he is a safe cash game play, but I do worry Kevin Love could get going early offensively and they bring in Aaron Gordon to play small ball with the Cavs.
Notable Injuries Jonathan Simmons (questionable) Terrence Ross, Nikola Vucevic and Jonathan Isaac (out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 104.5 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.0 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $8,000 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 29.7 | 5.7 | 29.4 | 3.9 | 1.01 | 21.2% | 19 | 22 | N/A |
| Evan Fournier | $6,100 | $6,200 | $12,500 | 28.1 | -1.4 | 32.5 | 0.3 | 0.86 | 20.7% | 20 | 22 | 22 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $5,700 | $5,200 | $10,400 | 23.1 | -0.6 | 28.9 | 0.4 | 0.80 | 20.5% | 23 | 23 | 21 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,900 | $8,000 | $14,500 | 34.9 | -0.2 | 33.5 | 1.3 | 1.04 | 19.9% | 25 | 24 | 28 |
| Bismack Biyombo | $6,200 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 14.7 | 14.4 | 17.0 | 10.9 | 0.87 | 10.7% | 11 | 12 | 24 |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (draftkings cash and tournaments)
Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 18 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 30 | DvP | 24 | 23 | 17 | 25 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 1 | 29 | 11 | 11 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 27 | |
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls are playing better basketball and continue to charge up the standings. They get a matchup against an injured Pacers team that desperately needs Victor Oladipo back, losing their last five games in a row. The Pacers are currently ranked 23rd in points allowed per game, 24th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in rebounding differential. This is a good game to target in fantasy, but the problem is figuring out which Bulls player to get exposure to.
Kris Dunn has been great and if I have the money I love getting exposure to him. The problem is the more and more I think about roster construction I think that it won’t lead me to playing him a ton. I think he is an elite play on the Bulls and someone you should try to get exposure to. There are just some other cheaper point guards that I prefer on this slate. Justin Holiday has a good price around the industry where there is still upside. I prefer him on FanDuel though where I am forced to roster two shooting guards. The forwards on the Bulls are unpredictable and a situation I typically stay away from unless I know there is an injury to take advantage of. I hate trying to predict which Bull to play and I like enough forwards on this slate where I don’t have to do that. Myles Turner is bad on defense so if you can stomach playing Robin Lopez for cheap I don’t hate it. The Pacers are ranked last against opposing Centers and I think could be an elite tournament play.
Notable Injuries None
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 101.4 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $7,700 | $7,100 | $13,100 | 31.9 | 1.6 | 28.9 | 2.9 | 1.10 | 24.6% | 11 | 18 | 20 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,800 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 27.1 | 2.7 | 33.9 | 3.5 | 0.80 | 17.2% | 14 | 10 | 1 |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,500 | $4,500 | $9,000 | 21.7 | 0.6 | 28.5 | 0.1 | 0.76 | 15.7% | 6 | 5 | 29 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,200 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 27.7 | 5.8 | 29.7 | 1.1 | 0.93 | 20.1% | 28 | 19 | 11 |
| Robin Lopez | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 24.4 | 0.3 | 29.0 | -3.0 | 0.84 | 18.3% | 30 | 30 | 11 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $6,800 | $6,500 | $12,300 | 30.6 | 4.2 | 25.3 | -0.3 | 1.21 | 24.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David Nwaba | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 19.0 | -3.4 | 23.3 | -0.1 | 0.82 | 12.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kris Dunn and Robin Lopez (tournaments only)
Secondary Plays – Justin Holiday (fanduel)
Indiana Pacers
The Chicago Bulls are playing at a much faster pace. They used to be in the bottom five in the league but now are ranked 11th in the league. People may have not caught onto that, but this Bulls team is a great team to target from a fantasy perspective. The Bulls are also ranked 21st in points allowed per game, 20th in defensive efficiency and 19th in rebounding differential. This team is playing better but the boost in pace has been friendly for fantasy points and means we should have some interest in some Pacers.
Victor Oladipo is questionable for this game and if we get word that he is ruled in, everyone will take a downgrade because he sees such massive usage. I will do the analysis with the understanding that Oladipo is out. If he gets ruled in late he could make a great tournament play. Lance Stephenson has been the biggest beneficiary to Oladipo’s injury and someone that I will look to roster again. Stephenson gets a good matchup and could also get some more shot attempts with Bojan Bogdonvic questionable. Lance Stephenson feels expensive but if both these guys are out he will be an elite play on this slate. Myles Turner has been bad recently and the price is getting cheap, but I don’t think this is going to be the matchup where I target him despite the discount. If you need a cheap point guard and are searching for value Corey Joseph could be an interesting option. I don’t love “(player-popup #darren-collison)Darren Collison”:/players/darren-collison-1060’s price and Thaddeus Young is another guy that has been difficult to roster and players I will fade. Part of the reason why Young has lost playing time is that Domantas Sabonis has been so good. I would expect Sabonis to continue to play in the high 20’s in minutes and in this matchup against a team that likes to go big, Sabonis could have a big game. At $5200, I think Sabonis is a secondary play and if the injuries fall our way on the Pacers side of the ball could turn into an elite play.
Notable Injuries Victor Oladipo and Bojan Bogdonavic (questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.8 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $6,100 | $5,900 | $11,200 | 27.2 | 1.3 | 30.3 | -0.1 | 0.90 | 18.7% | 24 | 24 | 5 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,300 | $8,400 | $15,400 | 42.5 | 34.4 | 1.24 | 27.4% | 25 | 23 | 5 | ||
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,300 | 20.8 | -1.6 | 31.3 | -1.7 | 0.67 | 16.2% | 24 | 17 | 16 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,100 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 27.0 | -6.4 | 32.5 | -3.4 | 0.83 | 15.3% | 27 | 25 | 25 |
| Myles Turner | $6,600 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 31.0 | -8.8 | 29.7 | -4.0 | 1.04 | 17.8% | 13 | 5 | 27 |
| Domantas Sabonis | $5,800 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 25.5 | 4.5 | 24.4 | 2.9 | 1.04 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cory Joseph | $4,800 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 18.3 | 5.4 | 25.5 | 4.2 | 0.72 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lance Stephenson
Secondary Plays – Domantas Sabonis
Houston Rockets at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | Eric Gordon | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 13 | 30 | 12 | 18 | DvP | 12 | 21 | 28 | 9 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 20 | 9 | 26 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 25 | 11 | 28 | 4 | |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are the game of the night it seems like recently because James Harden is out. With Harden out that helps keep the games close for the opponents and give us tons of value on the Houston side of the ball. I do think some of these Houston plays are underpriced, but they are starting to get a little priced up where they are less likely to hit value. This is also not an easy matchup for Houston going up against Detroit. The Pistons are ranked fourth in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency. This is a slower paced game going up against the 24th ranked team in pace, so although Houston has been the team to roster all week long maybe this is a spot to ease back on our expectations a little bit.
Chris Paul is $10,000 which is warranted because he averages 1.66 fantasy points per minute and has a 31.8% usage without James Harden. Ish Smith defense is also something that I love to target making Chris Paul an elite play on this slate. The question is do we feel the need to jam him in with all the other good studs on this slate and how much better of a play is Paul compared to the cheap point guards?? My current thought is that I like Paul and he is an elite play, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he doesn’t make my main teams because I prefer paying up in other areas and I like some cheaper point guards. He is still an elite play and someone in my player pool, but I don’t think he is just a lock and load like he’s been all week long. Eric Gordon on FanDuel for $8000 is a lot to pay for someone who is very points dependent. With Harden out, his assist and rebounds have improved along with a 27.3% usage. I prefer playing Gordon where he is cheap on DraftKings for only $6800. He is an elite play on DraftKings, but on FanDuel I am a little cautious to pay that price. You must roster two shooting guards over there, so it makes it a little easier to do it, but I do think if ownership is high on Gordon there is certainly bust potential in tournaments.
The Pistons are ranked last against opposing Small Forwards making Trevor Ariza a great target on Houston. He is still cheap and has upside when he is knocking down his shots from three. The Pistons are ranked 24th in the league at defending the three-point line and I think Ariza is an elite option on this slate. Ryan Anderson would be in play in tournaments because of the struggles the Pistons have from three. If you want cheap exposure to this game in tournaments he’s a good route to take. Clint Capela is another option I like a ton especially on DraftKings for only $6600. He should be needed to defend Andre Drummond and I think he is an elite play at this price. I like him on FanDuel too, but DraftKings he is way too cheap as usual. Gerald Green has been shooting out of his mind his price has increased throughout the industry. I don’t think that this can continue and I will let others chase Green in this spot.
Notable Injuries James Harden (out)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 115.3 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $10,100 | $10,000 | $17,400 | 41.7 | -3.3 | 31.6 | 2.3 | 1.32 | 24.3% | 15 | 3 | 16 |
| Eric Gordon | $8,000 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 26.6 | 4.1 | 32.5 | 1.9 | 0.82 | 22.2% | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,500 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 24.9 | -1.6 | 36.0 | 0.2 | 0.69 | 12.2% | 27 | 30 | 9 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,700 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 20.2 | 0.3 | 28.5 | -1.7 | 0.71 | 13.2% | 14 | 12 | 26 |
| Clint Capela | $7,400 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 35.1 | -5.5 | 25.8 | 1.8 | 1.36 | 17.4% | 15 | 18 | 2 |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,800 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 16.8 | -9.6 | 27.0 | -5.7 | 0.62 | 8.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon draftings only) and Trevor Ariza
Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon (fanduel)
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are a team that we will likely want to target. Since some of the recent injuries the Rockets have been struggling defensively and are allowing 106.6 points per game. This is also a nice pace up game for the Pistons and with their recent injuries there is some value to take advantage of.
Ish Smith is an elite play for me even against Chris Paul. The matchup may not be the best, but he is still underpriced and has a nice cash game floor with upside. Tobias Harris sees the biggest usage bump with their current starting lineup at 29.4% and averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute. His price is still too cheap, and he is another play that has a great floor and tons of upside at that price. Only reason I don’t know if I will play Andre Drummond is that I love DeMarcus Cousins on this slate. Those are two centers that I want to pay up for, but on DraftKings that price is insanely cheap and something I doubt I will pass up. This is a big pace up game for him and if he can keep his hands to himself he should smash this price. Drummond is an elite play on both sites and is a center that you should have in your player pool. Avery Bradley is the last Piston that I really want to consider. I think he’s a decent tournament play, but he carries a ton of risk because of his low floor and I think there are better ways to get exposure to this game than Avery Bradley, so I will likely fade. Pistons players are going to be popular on this slate and I will likely want to be overweight on them.
Notable Injuries Reggie Jackson (out) and Stanley Johnson (questionable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.2 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,000 | $5,500 | $10,400 | 19.2 | 8.4 | 21.0 | 8.5 | 0.91 | 24.4% | 4 | 12 | 6 |
| Avery Bradley | $5,700 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 23.6 | 4.2 | 31.5 | 6.4 | 0.75 | 21.1% | 26 | 21 | 25 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,700 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 21.5 | 12.2 | 0.62 | 11.5% | 25 | 28 | 11 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,300 | $6,100 | $12,000 | 28.8 | 1.6 | 33.0 | 1.0 | 0.87 | 20.7% | 7 | 9 | 28 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,500 | $8,600 | $15,800 | 43.4 | 9.9 | 32.7 | 3.5 | 1.33 | 18.4% | 14 | 13 | 4 |
| Anthony Tolliver | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 12.7 | -5.0 | 20.0 | 1.9 | 0.63 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |