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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 03 - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-04-03 19:50:48

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Memphis at Orlando – 06:00 PM

Memphis Orlando
memphisnba Vegas Total 204 orlandonba Vegas Total 204
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 95.59 Team Pace 98.06
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jordan Farmar Tony Allen Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Chris Andersen Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon
Opp. Season 15 5 18 22 19 Opp. Season 10 6 14 14 5
Opp. Last 7 3 11 30 27 2 Opp. Season 5 25 13 19 15

Memphis

Record: 41-35 — Road 16-21 — Last 10: 2-8

Mike Conley (O)
PJ Hairston (O)
Brandan Wright (O)
Marc Gasol (O)

As has been the case for a while now the Grizzlies are banged up and will be using a patchwork lineup against the Magic in Orlando. Unfortunately for us that means we are not going to get much value from these players as the price point has risen enough for the fill in players to take away value. What this means for us is that we will not have any elite players from this side of the ball but possible value from a couple players.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Jordan Farmar
Farmar has not only been playing steady minutes for the Grizzlies at the point but he also has managed to produce really solid value. He has played no fewer than twenty two minutes since joining Memphis. Not only that but he has put up ten attempts in the last three games giving him a better floor and reducing risk of a complete bust. All things considered he has capped upside but will round out your team nicely if you need a value from the position.

Orlando

Record: 32-44 — Home 20-17 — Last 10: 3-7

None

Unlike Memphis this Orlando team is finally getting healthy and have all of their options available tonight. The minutes are always an adventure with Scott Skiles at the helm but he looks to have settled on a somewhat consistent rotation (famous last words) recently.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Victor Oladipo
I thought about leaving Oladipo off of the list here but it is hard to look past a player who sees this amount of run night after night. The price point and volatility can make him more of a gpp option but taking a look through his game logs you will see he is more than capable of returning a good multiplier here.

Utah at Phoenix – 06:00 PM

Utah Phoenix
utahnba Vegas Total phoenixnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 93.39 Team Pace 100.56
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Trey Lyles Rudy Gobert Proj Starter Ronnie Price Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Alex Len
Opp. Season 29 29 27 15 14 Opp. Season 9 2 2 1 2
Opp. Last 7 17 10 16 17 26 Opp. Season 9 3 4 1 10

Utah

Record: 38-38 — Road 14-24 — Last 10: 7-3

This game has the lowest total on the board and is one of the least appealing real life games but we have a couple of fantasy options especially if Derrick Favors is unable to go for the Jazz. If he does sit then we should see more minutes out of both Trevor Booker and Trey Lyles making them value options at their price.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Shelvin Mack
Mack is not a player that you typically trust but against one of the leagues worst defenses with heavy minutes I think there is good reason to look his way tonight. It is a bit surprising just how often he has been able to hit thirty fantasy points recently and put up thirty seven against this same Phoenix squad just a couple of weeks ago.

Derrick Favors (Q)
Alec Burks (O)

Phoenix

Record: 20-56 — Home 13-25 — Last 10: 3-7

Jon Leuer (D)
Brandon Knight (O)
Eric Bledsoe (O)
TJ Warren (O)

This Phoenix team is an absolute disaster of a basketball team but that doesn’t necessarily mean you can just skip to the next game. With all of the injuries we should be able to find some value at a couple positions. Jon Leuer being doubtful is something to keep an eye on as Mirza Teletovic could make for an interesting play given twenty five plus minutes.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Ronnie Price
It is his price (see what I did there) that makes him a secondary play on this slate. He should play somewhere around thirty five minutes with Knight and much like Mack will give you solid value but has a very limited ceiling.

Mirza Teletovic
Teletovic is going to be a guy you want to look out as long as Leuer is unable to go. He is a shooter and as such gives us a good amount of upside for a guy who holds a modest price. Over the last four games he has played Teletovic has shot the ball at least sixteen times on his way to some really solid multipliers.

Chicago at Milwaukee – 07:00 PM

Chicago Milwaukee
chicagonba Vegas Total milwaukeenba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 98.57 Team Pace 96.46
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Mike Dunleavy Bobby Portis Bobby Portis Proj Starter Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 5 24 26 17 22 Opp. Season 27 15 25 25 24
Opp. Last 7 4 19 15 26 28 Opp. Season 20 8 12 21 17

Chicago

Record: 38-38 — Road 14-23 — Last 10: 5-5

Derrick Rose (D)
Taj Gibson (D)
Joakim Noah (O)

This is a game that I absolutely love for fantasy purposes tonight for more than one reason. First we are still dealing with some value at multiple positions with both Gibson and Rose doubtful for the game. The O/U may not be that enticing but make no mistake both sides have players who can put up monster numbers.

Elite Plays

Pau Gasol
This game should amount to the Jimmy Butler and Pau Gasol show for the Bulls. The Bucks struggle to defend the interior leaving an opening for the Bulls big man to take advantage of tonight. Do not be scared off by a recent dip in production from Gasol as this should be a heavier usage opportunity and lines up to be a monster for him much like his March 7th matchup.

Jimmy Butler
It was only a matter of time before Butler felt healthy and it has really come together for him over the past two games. Do not expect him to be at a near triple double at half time in this one but it would not surprise me to see him shoot the ball around twenty five times again. He has tremendous upside in this one and is someone you want to target.

Seconday Plays

None

Milwaukee

Record: 32-44 — Home 23-15 — Last 10: 4-6

Michael Carter-Williams (O)
Jerryd Bayless (O)
OJ Mayo (O)

The Bucks are a team that have seen their fantasy salaries rise throughout the season making it tougher to roster them with the confidence we had early in the year. With that said I have no problems rolling multiple players in your lineup from this one tonight.

Elite Plays

Jabari Parker
This may not be a popular opinion given some of the volatility we have seen with Parker lately. With that said much of his production is directly tied to the success of Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bulls are going to struggle on the defensive end tonight matching up with all the Bucks key players. He should play between thirty five and forty minutes here and has as ton of upside facing a team that gives up a ton of points to opposing power forwards.

Secondary Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo
While he carries about as much upside as anyone at the position tonight he also carries a very heavy price point. I am of the belief that we will see yet another big game from the Bucks superstar but we have to measure his volatility with the price dropping him down to a secondary play. The ball is going to be in his hands a lot as Milwaukee will look for him to get to the rack often which opens up the entire offense as he can not only score but facilitate.

Indiana at New York – 07:30 PM

Indiana New York
indiananba Vegas Total 196 newyorknba Vegas Total 196
Vegas Sprd -4.0 Vegas Sprd 4.0
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 96.0
Team Pace 99.1 Team Pace 95.85
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Monta Ellis Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi Proj Starter Jerian Grant Sasha Vujacic Carmelo Anthony Derrick Williams Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 19 17 9 6 12 Opp. Season 8 11 6 9 16
Opp. Last 7 11 17 18 6 3 Opp. Season 1 27 5 13 27

Indiana

Record: 40-36 — Road 17-21 — Last 10: 5-5

None

This game as a whole leaves a lot to be desired. Not only does it have one of the lower totals but our top tier options are limited by the fact that their prices are a bit too inflated. Taking advantage of the Knicks playing the rookie point guard Jerian Grant might be a good route to take.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

George Hill
Hill is a guy that you typically want to pick your spots and tonight against the Knicks rookie Jerian Grant is one of those spots for me. Sure Hill has not had the most success recently but the minutes are still there and so is the modest price point. This is a game you can avoid for the most part but in terms of value I believe there is some to be had here with Hill.

New York

Record: 31-46 — Home 18-20 — Last 10: 4-6

Kristaps Porzingis (D)
Jose Calderon (O)
Lance Thomas (O)

The Knicks are probably counting down the days for it all to be over. Rookie phenom Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful with a shoulder injury which will open up opportunity once again for Derrick Williams to get extended run. As bad as the Knicks are there are a couple value plays you can roll out in your lineups tonight.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Derrick Williams
No Lance Thomas and a doubtful Kristaps Porzingis means heavy minutes for Williams at a depressed price point. If you have been watching NBA this year then you know Williams has the ability to produce solid enough numbers even with Melo in the lineup to return value on his cheap price.

Jerian Grant
Grant will be starting and see around thirty minutes for the Knicks tonight. I am not as high on him as some others in terms of his long term prospects but with a near minimum price point across much of the industry we should get a good return on investment from him here.

Portland at Golden State – 08:00 PM

Portland Golden State
portlandnba Vegas Total 223 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 223
Vegas Sprd 12.0 Vegas Sprd -12.0
Team Proj. 105.8 Team Proj. 117.8
Team Pace 98.18 Team Pace 101.88
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 26 10 12 16 21 Opp. Season 22 18 5 21 26
Opp. Last 7 13 13 6 23 14 Opp. Season 6 9 14 16 21

Portland

Record: 41-36 — Road 15-24 — Last 10: 6-4

Meyers Leonard (O)

This is the big game of the night with Portland traveling to Oracle in what cannot be a good feeling after the Warriors just lost to the Celtics. A couple things have me worried about the Blazers ability to keep this one close. First is that of the good teams in the West the Blazers are probably the worst road team of the bunch. Second is that I have serious concerns about the Warriors coming out on fire after taking that first loss of the season at home.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Damian Lillard
Lillard has absolutely looked gassed the past few games for the Blazers and I completely understand if you think this is crazy because of it. The fact remains that Portland is still jockeying for position in the West and these are the games where they need to show up. The benefit of a blowout against Miami is that he was limited to twenty nine minutes and should be good to go in this one. The Warriors have been pretty friendly to opposing offenses at times this season and more specifically against fast pace teams such as Portland. All in all the upside remains for Lillard and should be considered a good gpp option tonight.

CJ McCollum
McCollum continues to score the ball for Portland and should we should see him put upwards of twenty shots in this one. Even more important is that he has contributed in the assist column more often which is going to increase his floor and upside at the same time. His price compared to Lillard probably makes him more of a cash option of the two but both are very much in play for gpp.

Golden State

Record: 68-8 — Home 36-1 — Last 10: 8-2

Andrew Bogut (Q)
Festus Ezeli (D)
Andre Iguodala (O)

The Warriors look to bounce back after the Celtics came to town and did what no other team had been able to accomplish all season. I am expecting them to come out shooting early and often from deep with both Curry and Thompson on my radar. The total is the highest on the board by pretty good margin and while I have my doubts that Portland keeps it close that will not keep me from rostering Warriors tonight.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry
Curry is pricey as always but coming off of a loss against one of the faster paced teams we should see fireworks from the start in this one. Golden State has answered the call in the game after a loss each time this season with Curry be a key piece to the puzzle. Even if this game turns into a blowout Curry is going to be a big reason why that happens and I feel pretty safe rostering him in this one.

Seconday Plays

Klay Thompson
Thompson has been pretty quiet since that three game streak he had in late March and this is a game I like him to bounce back. He has had success against this Portland team earlier in the year and we should see both he and Curry getting open looks both in transition and the half court set. Look for Thompson to play between thirty five and forty minutes in this one and that should lead to around twenty attempts.

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)