NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 3rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
NOTE – a25smith and Louiescards are filling in today for the Grind Down. a25smith is tacklingthe early slate on Page 1 and Louiescards is tackling the main slate on Page 2 and 3. Good luck in NBA AND MLB today everyone.
New Orleans at Brooklyn – 01:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -5.5, 205.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Douglas-Hamilton-Babbit-Cunningham-Asik
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Larkin-Hollis-Jefferson-Bogdanovich-Young-Lopez
| New Orleans | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 205 | | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.00 | Team Pace | 97.20 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Toney Douglas | Jordan Hamilton | Luke Babbitt | Dante Cunningham | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Bojan Bogdanovich | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 25 | 23 | 18 | 25 | Opp. Season | 16 | 26 | 16 | 20 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 30 | 19 | 20 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 25 | 8 | |
New Orleans
Record: 28-47 — Road: 8-29 — Last 10: 4-6
- New Orleans Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.6 (15 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.5
Projected Point Differential: -3.1
- Brooklyn Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.13 (24 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Norris Cole (D)
Ryan Anderson (O)
Alonzo Gee (O)
Anthony Davis (O)
Jrue Holiday (O)
Eric Gordon (O)
Tyreke Evans (O)
This game looks to have only been included in the FD All Day Slate as I don’t see it on DK so I’ll quickly run through it. In terms of real basketball, this is an awful matchup between two really bad teams. However, for DFS it’s pretty intriguing and does offer some potential value as neither team is very good defensively.
The Pelicans have been ravaged by injuries and are playing a nine man rotation of guys that typically never see big minutes in the NBA. That does present some value, especially against a bad Brooklyn defense. The one area to watch is that their starting lineup has been changing daily, and last game Luke Babbitt drew the start for Alexis Ajinca. Luckily this is the early game so we should have a starting lineup by lock. The price of most of the Pelicans is on the rise on FD and there isn’t a go to option so none are elite options, but several of their guys are potential value options to help fit some high end options like Westbrook, Durant and Harden.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Luke Babbitt
The Pelicans are tough to figure out as they’re changing their lineup daily and due to their injuries, don’t feature a go to scorer. Babbitt drew the start out of the blue last game and was ultra aggressive as he attempted 25 FGA. He’s a guy who is very scoring dependent so he does have some big bust potential. His price is on the rise so I’d double check he’s in the starting lineup, but those 25 FGA last game were certainly eye opening, and he draws a solid matchup today.
Alexis Ajinca
He went back to the bench last game, and played only 16 minutes so there is some risk here as his role is not clearly defined. On the positive side, he still produced 20 FD points in those 16 minutes, and has hit 5x value on FD in four of his last five games. I’d be particularly interested if he lands back in the starting lineup, and he did have 19 and 20 FGA against the Spurs and Pacers.
Tim Frazier
He’s backing up Toney Douglas, but the price on Douglas is currently to high for me to pull the trigger and Frazier’s role is very solid off the bench with Norris Cole doubtful. He’s averaging 27 MPG over his past five games and has hit 5x value on FD in four of his last five games. The primary drawback with Frazier is that he did get a price bump, and I’d lean towards Shane Larkin and J. J. Barea as cheaper value PG options.
Jordan Hamilton & James Ennis
Hopefully Fanduel slides Hamilton to SG as he’s been drawing the start there over his past three games. He was recently signed from the D-league, but he’s played well averaging 23.6 FD PPG in 26.5 MPG. The Pelicans need offense and he’s not a guy that is shy about shooting as he’s already attempted double digit shot attempts in three of his four games. I’d give the edge to Hamilton as the starter but if you need the savings then Ennis is $800 cheaper and has averaged 27 MPG and almost 23 FD points in his two games with the Pelicans.
Brooklyn
Record: 21-55 — Home: 14-24 — Last 10: 3-7
- Brooklyn Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.5 (27 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.5
Projected Point Differential: +7.0
- New Orleans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.13 (22 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Brook Lopez (O)
Thad Young (O)
Donald Sloan (O)
Bojan Bogdanovich (D)
The Nets check in with a team total of 105.5 points, which is 7 points higher than their season average, so they’re in a nice spot today. The issue to monitor here is the status of Brook Lopez as the Nets have been alternating rest days for him and Thaddeus Young. Young rested last game so we’ll have to see whether Lopez suits up or not, but given their team total I’d guess he plays. If he were to sit then Henry Sims started for him last game, but Thomas Robinson has been the player to own. He’s ripped off three quality games with Lopez and Thad alternating rest days, and will be a very popular value option if Young or Lopez sit again.
UPDATE – Brook Lopez and Thad Young have been shut down for the season a/k/a play Thomas Robinson
Elite Plays
Shane Larkin
Larkin is still sitting at just $4,100, which is a great price point, as he’s basically hit value in every game as a starter, with the potential for 7x upside. The matchup is ideal against a poor Pelicans defense that is 17th in DVP against PG, and he’ll help squeeze in guys like Harden and Westbrook.
FD — $4,100— PG
DK — – PG
Min/Game —Season: 21.8 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 16.8
Thomas Robinson
He’s been terrific with Lopez and Thad sidelined and is still cheap on FD today. His price is surely to rise with them shut down for the season so be sure to grab him today if you’re playing the All Day Slate.
Secondary Plays
Willie Reed or Henry Sims
We’ll have to wait to see who draws the start at center alongside Thomas Robinson, and I’d go with whoever does start as the preferred option.
UPDATE – Henry Sims will start
Dallas at Minnesota – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -3, 206.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Matthews-Anderson-Nowitzki-Pachulia
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Lavine-Wiggins—Dieng-Towns
| Dallas | Minnesota | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 206 | | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.8 | Team Proj. | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.79 | Team Pace | 97.46 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Juan Barea | Wesley Matthews | Justin Anderson | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Zach LaVine | Andrew Wiggins | Gorgui Dieng | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 6 | Opp. Season | 14 | 9 | 11 | 27 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 5 | 27 | 5 | 12 | |
Dallas
Record: 38-38 — Road: 17-21 — Last 10: 5-5
- Dallas Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.0 (12 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.0
Projected Point Differential: +2.0
- Minnesota Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.94 (19 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Deron Williams (O)
Chandler Parsons (O)
Raymond Felton (Q)
In addition to Chandler Parsons, who is out for the year, the Mavericks will once again be without Deron Williams today, and Raymond Felton is also questionable. That means there are potentially tons of minutes to go around at PG, SG and SF for the Mavs. If Felton returns then Barea would likely slid back to the bench, but his usage is still sky high. If Felton were to sit then he opens up some extra minutes for guys like Devin Harris and Justin Anderson as punt options. The Mavs are locked into a tight battle for last playoff spots in the West so every game is very important to them.
If you’re in dire need of a punt at center then Zaza Pachulia is almost minimum price and has reentered the starting lineup. The problem is that his minutes are not secure as he’s averaging 21 MPG over his last two starts.
Elite Plays
J. J. Barea
His price is on the rise but so is his production and usage due to all of the Mavs’ injuries. He’s topped 30 FD points in four of his last five games, and with Williams sidelined, the offense is running through him and Dirk. His price is starting to get to the point where you have to stop and think, but given the injury situation for the Mavs as well as the matchup against Minnesota’s 25th ranked PG defense, it’s a price I’ll pay today.
FD — $5,500— PG
DK — $5,600– PG
Min/Game —Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 18.3
Wesley Matthews (cash)
I wouldn’t categorize him as an elite tournament option, but he’s a great cash game option in the afternoon slate. He’s still very affordable and makes for a nice SG pairing with Harden on FD. Due to all of the Mavs’ injuries, he’s playing big minutes and is averaging 12.4 FGA over his past five games (compared to 10.8 on the season). Minnesota is a team I like to pick on defensively and the Mavs are a team to continue to look towards for value.
FD — $5,100— SG
DK — $4,900– SG
Min/Game —Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 36.4
FP/Game — Season: 20.5
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (elite DK)
At his price on FD, I’d still consider him a secondary option, but his price on DK is back to where I’d consider him in all formats. He’s only shooting 31% over his past four games, but he is averaging 18 FGA over that span, which is very encouraging. His minutes are secure with the Mavs battling for a playoff spot, and at $6,500 and against a poor defense, I’ll take some shots with Dirk on DK that his shot will start falling.
FD — $7,400— PF
DK — $6,500– PF
Min/Game —Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 30.8
Justin Anderson
If you’re looking for a punt SF option in the afternoon slate then Anderson looks like the best bet. He doesn’t bring a huge upside, but at his price point he doesn’t have to do a ton. He’s stepped into the starting lineup and is averaging 26 MPG over his five contests while topping 22 FD points three times in that span. With Raymond Felton also out last game, his minutes jumped to 33 so that is a situation to monitor. If Felton sits then Devin Harris would also see an uptick as Harris played 28 minutes last game.
FD — $3,800— SF
DK — $3,300– SF
Min/Game —Season: 10.1 | Last Five Games: 26.4
FP/Game — Season: 7.2
Minnesota
Record: 25-51 — Home: 13-25 — Last 10: 4-6
- Minnesota Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.8 (18 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.5
Projected Point Differential: +0.7
- Dallas Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.1 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.57 (20 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Kevin Garnett (D)
Nikola Pekovic (O)
The good news is that Sam Mitchell has stated that he doesn’t plan on resting players as Minnesota has too much developing to do. That’s refreshing news to hear given the current resting fade, even among non playoff teams, and provides security to target guys like Towns, Wiggins and Rubio here. I don’t mind Zach LaVine and Gorgui Dieng either, and Dieng’s matchup is particularly good, but I am concerned that both are gassed right now.
Elite Plays
Karl Anthony-Towns (GPP)
With all of the focus on Harden, Westbrook, Durant, and LeBron, KAT is likely going to under-owned today. I’d rather spend on those other guys for cash games, but he’s a great tournament option at low ownership against an exploitable Dallas interior.
FD — $8,700— C
DK — $8,400– C
Min/Game —Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 36
Secondary Plays
Ricky Rubio (DK)
He’s a guy that I don’t really use on FD and I’ll probably either go cheaper at PG or high end. However, he is intriguing on a site like DK as he’s cheap and DK offers a double double and triple bonus. J. J. Barea is seeing lots of time at PG for the Mavs and he’s not a great defender so this is a solid matchup for Rubio against his former teammate.
FD — $7,100— PG
DK — $6,700– PG
Min/Game —Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.9
Andrew Wiggins
I’m just considering him on the afternoon only slate, but he’s a solid mid-priced option on the shorter slate. The Mavs have really struggled at SF defensively with Parsons sidelined and Wiggins minutes are very secure. He doesn’t provide much peripherals, but he’s averaged 19.7 PPG and 31 DK PPG against the Mavs this year.
FD — $6,600— SF
DK — $6,100– SG
Min/Game —Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 28.7
Gorgui Dieng
I’m not quite sure what to do with Gorgui today so I have him in the tournament category. The matchup is great against the weak defense of Dirk Nowitzki, and Gorgui has been rock solid for the most part in the 2nd half of the season. He was in foul trouble last game, which explains some of his struggles, but he’s struggled in four straight games now, so I do worry the big minute load has caught up with him. On the flipside, he’s flashed 40 fantasy point upside just five games so while there is some risk with his recent play, there is also plenty of upside in this prime matchup.
FD — $5,900— PF
DK — $5,600– PF
Min/Game —Season: 27.1 | Last Five Games: 26.6
FP/Game — Season: 24.1
Nemanja Bjelica (afternoon only tournament punt)
If you’re looking for an off the radar punt in the afternoon only slate then Bjelica could be the guy. He’s a tournament only option as his minutes are not secure and Minnesota will more than likely turn back to Dieng for big minutes. Dieng was in foul trouble last game, but he was also very ineffective in the 2nd half and could be gassed after playing big minutes. As a result, Bjeclia played 35 minutes last game, and played 20 the game prior, while producing 22 and 27 FD points in those two games
FD — $3,800— SF
DK — $3,500– PF
Min/Game —Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 19.0
FP/Game — Season: 11.1
Washington at L.A. Clippers – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -6.5, 208 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Porter-Morris-Gortat
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Reddick-Johnson-Griffin-Jordan
| Washington | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 208 | | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 107.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.51 | Team Pace | 98.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J. J. Redick | Wesley Johnson | Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan | ||
| Opp. Season | 7 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 17 | Opp. Season | 18 | 16 | 24 | 7 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 16 | |
Washington
Record: 37-39 — Road: 18-20 — Last 10: 6-4
- Washington Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.5 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.5
Projected Point Differential: -2.9
- Los Angeles Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.74 (7 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
NONE
This game is odd in that it checks in with a solid 207.5 team total and a spread of just 6, but it’s tough to find many plays. The return of Blake Griffin and the fact that they are locked into playoff seeding puts a dent in the Clippers option. The Wizards still have a faint hope at the playoffs, but this isn’t a great spot on the road against a quality Clippers defense. After starting the year off poorly defensive, the Clippers have really turned things around and after resting players on Thursday, are expected to be at full strength tonight.
John Wall will be very low owned so I could see the appeal for a large field tournament, but the matchup with CP3 is not ideal, and I’d much rather just spend a few extra hundred dollars and grab Westbrook or Curry.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Marcin Gortat
I’m not really excited about him today as he’s been underwhelming recently, but he does draw the best matchup for the Wizards. DeAndre Jordan will chase blocks, which opens up his man for easy buckets and offensive rebounds, and the Clippers are just 17th in DVP against centers this year. He was solid in the first meeting with 12 points and 16 rebounds.
FD — $6,400— C
DK — $6,200– C
Min/Game —Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 29.7
Brad Beal
I’ll likely save the extra $800 with Wesley Matthews as the cap is tight with superstarts like Durant, Westbrook, Harden, etc, but Beal’s price is still affordable. His minutes are up with the Wizards still clinging to slight playoff hopes as he’s averaging 35 MPG over his past five games. He’s played well over his past two games, and given his minutes bump he should be right around value again tonight.
FD — $5,900— SG
DK — $6,000– SG
Min/Game —Season: 31.2 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 26.4
L.A. Clippers
Record: 47-28 — Home: 22-16 — Last 10: 5-5
- Los Angeles Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.6 (7 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.0
Projected Point Differential: +2.4
- Washington Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.9 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.40 (14 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Paul Pierce (O)
The big news here is that Blake Griffin will return today. He’s said he still has a partially torn quad so it will be very interesting to see his minute load as the Clippers haven’t stated a specific target. With this being his first game in three months, he should be fairly limited so he’s far too expensive on FD. DK has at least made it interest as he’s just $7,600, but even then he’s only a tournament option as he could be rusty and his minutes are a question mark. I do think the Clippers will really work to incorporate him back in offensively when he is on the court as they need him for the playoffs. Based on that this is a pretty big hit to some of the Clippers as their usage will take a big hit.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul
CP3 is really the only Clipper on my radar today and even then I’d much rather spend the extra $1,100 and go get Westbrook. He’s a guy who can still obviously produce alongside Blake, but he won’t shoulder quite the offensive load, and he wasn’t great with Blake out earlier this year. The Wizards are just 19th in DVP against PG this year and he should be low owned so he’s maybe worth a peek in tournaments, but overall I’d just pay the extra money and grab Westbrook or Curry.
FD — $9,600— PG
DK — $9,600– PG
Min/Game —Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 28.5
FP/Game — Season: 41.6
Charlotte at Cleveland – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Lee-Batum-Williams-Zeller
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Charlotte | Cleveland | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.87 | Team Pace | 95.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Courtney Lee | Nicolas Batum | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | Opp. Season | 11 | 13 | 19 | 24 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 4 | Opp. Season | 2 | 1 | 22 | 28 | ||
Charlotte
Record: 44-31 — Road: 16-20 — Last 10: 7-3
- Charlotte Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.1 (11 of 30)
Implied Team Total: TBD
Projected Point Differential:
- Cleveland Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.0 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +3.7 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.23 (3 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
NONE
UPDATE – Al Jefferson has been ruled OUT. It’s a tough matchup, but in the afternoon only slate PF is somewhat thin and Cody Zeller should see his minutes solidify with Jefferson out.
The Hornets continue to play terrific basketball and are sitting in the 3rd spot in the East. Teams 3 through 6 are clustered together though so the Hornets will continue to have to roll out their starters to secure home court advantage. Today isn’t a great spot though as they have struggled on the road and face a quality Cleveland defense. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are the primary two Hornets I look towards, but I’ll pass on Batum today as his price is elevated and the matchup is very tough against LeBron. If LeBron happens to sit then I’d bump him back up into the secondary category as he has been playing very well.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Kemba Walker
Kemba draws the weak link of the Cleveland defense as Kyrie Irving is not a good defender and the Cavs are just 16th in DVP against PG on the season. His price is down and he finally came through with a quality outing last game so he merits tournament consideration. However, he’s been just average against Cleveland this year averaging 19 PPG, 3 RPG and 5 APG in 35 MPG, and he’s a guy who has been much better at home than on the road.
FD — $7,800— PG
DK — $8,000– PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 36.1
Cleveland
Record: 54-22 — Home: 31-7 — Last 10: 7-3
- Cleveland Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.0 (9 of 30)
Implied Team Total: TBD
Projected Point Differential:
- Charlotte Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (7of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.60 (15 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Possible Rest
UPDATE – Kyrie Irving is OUT, which solidifies LeBron as an Elite Option and bumps Kevin Love into elite status. Matthew Dellavedova will draw the start and while he doesn’t have a ton of upside, he should hover around 5x value. J. R. Smith also gets a small bump and is cheap around the industry.
This is the one game that is still listed as TBD, which makes me think we could see one of the Big Three rest for the Cavs today. They are coming off an overtime game on Friday night, and also have a back to back on Tuesday/Wednesday so this is a three games in four nights spot. Charlotte is a solid defense, and I don’t really like to use the big three when all of them are healthy. However, with one of them potentially sitting, the other two get a big bump.
Elite Plays
LeBron James
LeBron is the one player of the big three that I’d consider an elite option as he is picking up his game heading into the playoffs. He’d also see a solid bump if Kyrie or Love were to sit. If all three are active I’d give a slight edge to Durant due to the matchup with Houston, but LeBron would be a solid tournament pivot from Durant, who should carry higher ownership.
FD — $10,500— SF
DK — $10,200– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 45
Secondary Plays
Kevin Love & Kyrie Irving
Of the two I’d give the preference to Love as Charlotte has struggled against PF this season, but I won’t force either into my lineups if all of the Cavs are active today. If one of the big three sit then I’d bump whoever doesn’t sit up to elite status so be sure to monitor the Cleveland injury news.
Oklahoma City at Houston – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -3, 221 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| Oklahoma City | Houston | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 221 | | Vegas Total | 221 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 112.0 | Team Proj. | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.33 | Team Pace | 99.96 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 23 | 30 | 29 | 20 | Opp. Season | 20 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 26 | 26 | 2 | 19 | Opp. Season | 10 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 7 | |
Oklahoma City
Record: 53-23 — Road: 22-14 — Last 10: 9-1
- Oklahoma City Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 110.1 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 112.5
Projected Point Differential: +2.4
- Houston Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.34 (27 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
NONE
If you’re playing the afternoon only slate then this is the top game to target on the slate, and it’s right there as the top game on the entire slate. It checks in with a total of 222 points, and a spread of just 3 points. The Thunder aren’t playing for anything as they are locked into the 3 seed, but they aren’t expected to rest any starters today.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook
In three games against Houston, he’s averaging a triple double as he’s ripped them for 24.0 PPG, 10 RPG, and 13.3 APG. Needless to say ever since the incident in the playoffs a few years ago, he gets a little fired up to play Pat Beverley, and the pace that the Rockets play suits him perfectly. Both him and Durant are clearly in play against this porous Houston defense, but I’d give a slight edge to Westbrook over Durant if choosing between the two. He’s been the top fantasy player on the year, and he’s at the top of my list today.
FD — $10,700— PG
DK — $10,700– PG
Min/Game —Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 33.2
FP/Game — Season: 49
Kevin Durant
The Rockets have struggled mightily against SF this year so this is a prime spot for Durant to shine once again. I’m giving a slight edge to Westbrook but a Durant/Westbrook pairing is certainly in play against a very poor Houston defense. He hasn’t been as effective as Westbrook against Houston as Trevor Ariza has actually done an ok job on him this year as he’s “held’ Durant to 28.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, and 2.3 APG.
FD — $10,600— SF
DK — $10,400– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 46.3
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka (GPP)
Ibaka is really tough to trust as he’s been incredibly volatile this season, and I wouldn’t use him in an All Day Slate in anything other than a GPP. However, he has been playing better recently as he’s produced at least 31 FD points in four of his last five games. The Rockets have struggled mightily against PF all season long, and he’s particularly interesting as a value option on the short four game afternoon slate.
FD — $5,600— PF
DK — $5,500– PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 30.7
FP/Game — Season: 25.7
Houston
Record: 37-39 — Home: 20-17 — Last 10: 4-6
- Houston Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.8 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.5
Projected Point Differential: +3.7
- Oklahoma City Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +8.3 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.54 (10 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
NONE
After making the Western Conference Finals last year, the Rockets are on the verge of messing around and missing the playoffs altogether. They’ve been a hugely disappointing team, but they are still battling for the playoffs so we can project their starters for big minutes, especially the trio of James Harden, Patrick Beverley, and Trevor Ariza.
Elite Plays
James Harden
He’s a guy I’m gonna try to pair with Westbrook a lot today as the spot looks perfect for both. He’s been terrific against OKC this year averaging 31.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 8.7 APG in 39 MPG, and if you watched Thursday’s OKC game – they weren’t exactly getting after it defensively, as they are locked into their playoff spot. With the Rockets chasing a playoff berth, his minutes are off the charts so
FD — $10,700— SG
DK — $10,600– SG
Min/Game —Season: 38 | Last Five Games: 42.8
FP/Game — Season: 47.4
Secondary Plays
Michael Beasley
He’s developed into the Rockets secondary offensive option as he’s averaging 13.2 FGA and 15 PPG over his past five games. The price is still affordable so he’s certainly in play today, particularly on the afternoon only slate. I have him as a secondary option due to the fact that he’s scoring dependent and comes off the bench. The other thing to note is that he only played 16 minutes in the recent meeting between the two teams. According to one of the Rockets’ beat writers, it was due to his rotation lining up with the Thunder’s rotation that features Kevin Durant at PF. I would expect the Rockets to find a way to get him on the floor more today, but then again the players and coaches on this Rockets team have been a mess this year.
FD — $5,500— SF
DK — $5,200– SF
Min/Game —Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 25.6
FP/Game — Season: 23.4
Dwight Howard
Howard is playing so poorly that he’s well under $7,000 and I considered not even including him as a secondary option. He’s really been struggling recently, isn’t getting any offensive usage, and his minutes have down recently. That’s not a good recipe so he’s a tournament only option. However, he did play well against OKC a few weeks ago with 35 FD points, and we have seen him put together quality games this year- it’s just been on a sporadic basis.
FD — $6,700— C
DK — $6,400– C
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 29.6
FP/Game — Season: 33
Trevor Ariza
He’s not a fun guy to roster as he doesn’t get a lot of usage, and he’s reliant on his three point shot and steals. However on the short four game afternoon only slate he does provide lots of minute security and exposure to the game with the highest total on the slate.
FD — $5,500— SF
DK — $5,200– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 38.0
FP/Game — Season: 24.5
Patrick Beverley
If Williams and Felton are out for the Mavs I’d give the clear edge to Barea at this PG price point, and Beverley is a lot like Ariza. He doesn’t get great usage for a PG, and is reliant on his three point shot and defensive stats. However, he’s coming off two quality games and the Thunder have struggled against PG this season.
FD — $5,300— PG
DK — $4,700– PG
Min/Game —Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 20.5
