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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-18 02:33:21

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers – 3:00 PM

Detroit Pistons Cleveland Cavaliers
detroitnba Vegas Total 200.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Sprd 10.5 Vegas Sprd -10.5
Team Proj. 95.0 Team Proj. 105.5
Team Pace 97.40 Team Pace 95.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tobias Harris Marcus Morris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opp. Season 17 7 6 2 1 Opp. Season 14 6 3 11 11
Last 3 Weeks 21 5 24 9 11 Last 3 Weeks 28 4 2 14 22

Detroit Pistons

Record: 44-38 — Road: 18-23 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pistons managed to claim the eighth seed in the East, but they are rewarded with a first round matchup against the Cavaliers. They are huge underdogs in this series with the spread of Game 1 set at 10.5 points. The Pistons are only projected to score 95 points, which gives them the second lowest team total and the second lowest projected point differential. During the regular season, the Cavaliers were ranked fourth in both defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are all GPP plays on Sunday.

Elite Plays

Reggie Jackson
reggie-jackson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 31.1 0.4 31.7 1.0
FPPG (FD) 30.7 31.3 0.5 38.6 7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.8 27.9 2.1 30.8 5.1

Jackson ended the season on a high note, averaging 38.6 fantasy points in his last five games. He missed the final game of the season with an abdomen injury, but is fully expected to play in Game 1. I expect him to see a minutes boost in this series and he draws the best matchup of the five Pistons’ starters.

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond
andre-drummond-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.19 FP/Min:1.27
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 31.1 -1.8 30.4 -2.5
FPPG (FD) 39.1 34.5 -4.5 31.6 -7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 20.2 18.5 -1.7 17.9 -2.4

Drummond played a little better down the stretch of the regular season, but draws a difficult matchup against a tough Cavaliers’ frontcourt. He still provides nice upside at his price point, but he is best suited for tournaments.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 57-25 — Home: 33-8 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers are looking to get back to the finals and this time they are starting the playoffs with a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. They are listed as 10.5 point favorites in Game 1 against the Pistons. The Pistons are projected to score 105.5 points, which gives them the second highest team total and the third highest projected point differential on the board. The big three are all in play here, but LeBron James is the only one that really stands out as an elite play.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,500 Salary:$10,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.26 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 35.8 0.2 33.0 -2.6
FPPG (FD) 45.0 51.5 6.5 43.6 -1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 25.8 -1.6 21.9 -5.4

James had a monster postseason in 2015 and even though Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are both healthy, I’m expecting big things from LeBron again this season. He really took over offensively over the last few weeks of the season, averaging 51.5 fantasy points per contest.

Secondary Plays

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,500 Salary:$7,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 34.2 2.7 34.0 2.5
FPPG (FD) 30.8 35.9 5.2 35.6 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 27.4 1.7 25.6 -0.1

Irving comes into this series in excellent form. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 35.9 fantasy points in just over 34 minutes per contest. He could see a small minutes boost in the postseason, making him a strong GPP play against the Pistons.

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$7,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.12
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 29.3 -2.2 27.3 -4.2
FPPG (FD) 32.4 33.1 0.7 31.9 -0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 22.3 2.3 22.9 3.0

Love was one of the most frustrating fantasy options during the regular season, but his minutes should be secure in the postseason. Look for him to average 32-34 in this series with the potential to play more in close games.

Tristan Thompson
tristan-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.7 25.4 -2.3 21.4 -6.3
FPPG (FD) 21.3 20.1 -1.2 18.3 -3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 9.9 9.5 -0.4 10.7 0.8

Thompson got paid in the offseason thanks to a big postseason in 2015. Even though Kevin Love is healthy, Thompson may see a small boost in minutes in the playoffs. He makes a nice GPP play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat – 5:30 PM

Charlotte Hornets Miami Heat
charlottenba Vegas Total 200.0 miaminba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 97.8 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 1 4 12 3 8 Opp. Season 10 14 18 23 16
Last 3 Weeks 3 15 1 2 26 Last 3 Weeks 5 18 11 23 19

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 48-34 — Road: 18-23 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hornets may not have secured homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, but they have a good chance at pulling off the upset against the Heat. This should be one of the most competitive series in the first round. The Hornets open up as 4.5-point underdogs. They are projected to score 97.8 points, which gives them the third lowest team total and the third lowest projected point differential. The bad news is that Miami has one of the best defenses in the entire NBA, ranking third in fantasy points allowed per game during the regular season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum
nicolas-batum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,400
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.0 29.1 -5.9 25.9 -9.1
FPPG (FD) 31.0 29.8 -1.3 23.0 -8.0
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 20.2 2.3 17.6 -0.2

Batum is really the only Hornets’ player on my radar in this game. Kemba Walker is much better at home and the whole team draws a tough matchup against the Heat. Batum is worth a look here though, as he is a stat-stuffing machine that has seen an increased role in the offense over the last few weeks of the season.

Miami Heat

Record: 48-34 — Home: 28-13 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat managed to secure homecourt in the first round of the playoffs, which may end up being the difference in this series. They open up as 4.5-point favorites against the Hornets in a game that features a total of 204.5 points. The Heat are projected to score 102.3 points, which gives them the fourth highest team total and the second highest projected point differential on the board. The matchup may not look great on paper, but the Heat’s starters should see a small minutes boost in the postseason.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.23 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.1 30.3 1.2 29.2 0.1
FPPG (FD) 35.8 38.7 3.0 37.0 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 18.5 2.4 18.9 2.8

Whiteside is one of my favorite plays on the board. He averages 1.23 FP/min this season and now that he is in the starting lineup, his minutes are more secure. Look for him to average 32+ minutes in this series.

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,500 Salary:$6,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 31.0 0.5 30.6 0.1
FPPG (FD) 31.6 31.5 -0.1 27.0 -4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 26.8 25.1 -1.7 24.6 -2.2

Wade’s minutes were difficult to predict this season, but he should see a nice boost in the playoffs. HIs season average of 30.5 minutes should go up to 34-36 in this series, which gives Wade a sizable boost in potential fantasy production.

Secondary Plays

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 32.5 -0.3 31.2 -1.6
FPPG (FD) 27.3 30.4 3.1 32.3 5.0
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 21.5 2.6 22.5 3.6

Dragic played well down the stretch of the season, averaging 32.3 fantasy points over his last five games. He draws a decent matchup against the Hornets and he could end up playing around 35 minutes per game in this series.

Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 PM

Memphis Grizzlies San Antonio Spurs
memphisnba Vegas Total 190.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 190.0
Vegas Sprd 15.5 Vegas Sprd -15.5
Team Proj. 87.3 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jordan Farmar Tony Allen Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Chris Andersen Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 4 1 1 4 3 Opp. Season 12 5 11 18 5
Last 3 Weeks 19 2 9 4 3 Last 3 Weeks 22 11 5 30 21

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 42-40 — Road: 16-25 — Last 10: 1-9

After losing Marc Gasol and Mike Conley for the season, the Grizzlies limped their way into the playoffs. Everyone expects this to be a quick series, as the Spurs were clearly the second best team in the NBA during the regular season. I’m fully expecting a sweep and I’m not expecting the games in San Antonio to be close. The Grizzlies are listed as 15.5-point underdogs in this matchup. They are only projected to score 87.3 points, which gives them the lowest team total on the board. I want no part of the Grizzlies in this one.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 67-15 — Home: 40-1 — Last 10: 6-4

The Spurs didn’t have the best form over the last few weeks, but they didn’t have a lot to play for after locking up the second seed in the West. They only lost one game at home all year and I don’t expect them to lose another in this series. The veterans on the Spurs have been easy to avoid this season, but we can expect them to see a minutes boost in the postseason. The major issue here is the potential blowout. We know how Popovich likes to rest his players when games get out of hand.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard
kawhi-leonard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 35.5 2.4 37.5 4.4
FPPG (FD) 37.5 42.4 4.9 42.4 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 23.8 1.5 24.8 2.6

Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge have been the two Spurs’ players that we have been able to trust this season. While I expect the veterans to play more minutes in the postseason, they will still get pulled early in blowouts. Leonard should see 30+ minutes regardless, which is more than enough time to reach value against the Grizzlies.

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge
lamarcus-aldridge-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$7,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.05 FP/Min:1.11
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.6 31.4 0.8 27.3 -3.3
FPPG (FD) 32.3 32.5 0.3 24.5 -7.8
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 21.1 -0.9 22.0 0.0

Aldridge should be able to dominate a Grizzlies’ frontcourt that just hasn’t been the same since losing Marc Gasol. They really don’t have anyone to match up against him. The only knock I have on Aldridge is his hefty price tag.

Tim Duncan
tim-duncan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$4,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.2 27.8 2.6 29.2 4.0
FPPG (FD) 24.0 21.8 -2.2 22.6 -1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 14.7 16.1 1.4 19.4 4.7

I still have a hard time trusting Duncan in cash games, but he is cheap enough that I certainly wouldn’t mind looking at him if you are starving for some value. Even in his old age he is averaging 0.95 FP/min. He could end up playing 28+ minutes per game in this series.

Tony Parker
tony-parker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.5 29.3 1.8 31.3 3.8
FPPG (FD) 23.0 17.2 -5.8 19.7 -3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 16.8 -2.1 16.6 -2.3

Parker is in the same boat as Tim Duncan. While the potential blowout throws a wrench into our plans, he should still see a small minutes boost in this series. He makes a great GPP play at his price point.

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Los Angeles Clippers
portlandnba Vegas Total 209.0 laclippersnba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 5 3 8 13 12 Opp. Season 24 18 4 22 27
Last 3 Weeks 7 1 7 26 2 Last 3 Weeks 22 6 10 24 30

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 44-38 — Road: 16-25 — Last 10: 7-3

The Blazers had a better season than anyone could have imagined. It will be interesting to see if they pat themselves on the back for making the playoffs or if they come into this series thinking that they can take down the Clippers. With a healthy Blake Griffin, it’s going to be difficult for the Blazers and I don’t expect the series to go past five games. The Blazers are projected to score 100.5 points in Game 1, which gives them the fifth highest team total on the board. There are a number of viable options on the Blazers, but they aren’t players that I am going to start my lineups with.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$8,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 33.5 -2.2 33.9 -1.8
FPPG (FD) 39.4 32.4 -7.0 37.9 -1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 27.6 26.3 -1.3 28.6 1.1

Lillard didn’t play all that well down the stretch of the regular season, averaging only 32.4 fantasy points over his last ten games. To make matters worse, he draws an awful matchup against Chris Paul and the Clippers, who are ranked fifth against point guards this season.

C.J. McCollum
c-j-mccollum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,400 Salary:$6,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.7 33.3 -1.4 34.1 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 31.6 32.8 1.2 31.3 -0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 23.6 23.3 -0.3 22.9 -0.7

McCollum may see a small usage boost in this series with Damian Lillard having to deal with Chris Paul. This is still a bad matchup for McCollum though, as the Clippers are ranked third against shooting guards. McCollum is best suited as a GPP play.

Mason Plumlee
mason-plumlee-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$4,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.4 25.1 -0.3 26.4 1.0
FPPG (FD) 24.3 27.4 3.1 30.6 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 15.2 1.0 14.0 -0.2

Plumlee has been extremely productive while on the floor this season, averaging 0.96 FP/min. For whatever reason, the Blazers refuse to give him a full complement of minutes, but he still offers nice upside for the price.

Maurice Harkless
moe-harkless-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$4,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.7 27.7 9.0 28.0 9.3
FPPG (FD) 13.3 25.2 11.9 26.0 12.7
TO-Adj. Usage 13.3 15.4 2.2 17.1 3.8

Harkless is a borderline elite play in all league formats. He was terrific for the Blazers in the last month of the season and as I mentioned yesterday, there is little to no value in the postseason.

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 53-29 — Home: 29-12 — Last 10: 8-2

The Clippers didn’t have a ton of time to get used to playing with a healthy Blake Griffin, but I expect them to take care of business in this series. They open up as 8-point favorites at home against the Blazers. They are projected to score 108.5 points, which gives them the highest team total and the highest projected point differential on the board. The Blazers are a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 20th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. DeAndre Jordan and Jamal Crawford are both intriguing tournament plays.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin
blake-griffin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,100 Salary:$7,600
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.17 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.4 24.5 -8.9 27.1 -6.3
FPPG (FD) 39.0 25.3 -13.8 33.3 -5.7
TO-Adj. Usage 25.5 20.9 -4.5 23.7 -1.8

Griffin is fairly price on FanDuel, but he is WAY too cheap on DraftKings. If you are playing cash games, just lock him into your power forward spot. He is too talented to be priced at $7,600, even though he is coming off of an injury.

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul
chris-paul-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,500 Salary:$9,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.27 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 28.4 -4.3 28.7 -4.0
FPPG (FD) 41.6 40.6 -1.1 31.8 -9.9
TO-Adj. Usage 24.9 26.0 1.1 19.5 -5.4

Of the two point guards in this matchup, I give the clear edge to Chris Paul – both overall and dollar for dollar. Paul has incredible upside and he draws a nice matchup against the Blazers, who are ranked 24th against point guards this season.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious