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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 23rd

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-24 00:46:59

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Indiana Pacers
Article Image Vegas Total 212.5 Article Image Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Team Total 108.0 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- -0.6 Pace +/- -0.3
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Jeff Teague C.J. Miles Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 12 9 27 13 22 Adj. DvP 23 29 26 9 17
DRPM -0.24 -0.68 0.13 1.69 2.43 DRPM -2.16 -0.77 1.57 1.93 0.95

Cleveland Cavaliers

Following a record-breaking performance in Game 3 when the Cavs overcame a 25-point halftime deficit, Cleveland will be going for the series sweep today against the Pacers. LeBron James is coming off a 41-point triple-double and he’s looking unstoppable. After getting 18 points back in the third, he played the entire fourth quarter without Kevin Love or Kyrie Irving and led his squad to a 5-point victory. In this series, he’s shooting 55.2% from the field and 47.1% from three. Plus, he’s averaging 32.7 points, 10.7 assists, 9.7 rebounds, 2.7 steals, and 2.0 blocks per game. The Pacers just don’t have a way to slow him down. As a team, Cleveland has the best shooting percentage in the playoffs at 51.0% and they’re leading in three-point percentage as well, making an insane 43.7% of their attempts from deep. Every single player is shooting 43.8% or better from beyond the arc outside of Kyrie Irving, who’s made 24.0%.

Irving burned a lot of fantasy players in Game 3 with 13 points and four assists in 28 minutes of action. He watched the entire fourth quarter from the sidelines as Coach Tyronn Lue (or Coach James) decided to leave the bench guys on the floor with James so he could play one-on-one with Paul George. This minutes reduction is likely an outlier and we should expect him to push towards 36-40 minutes today. He’s currently third in the playoffs with a 40.4% usage rate, although his per-minute production has dropped 0.11 DK ppm below his season average, bringing it to 1.06. Despite this, his price has risen to $9,500 on FanDuel (note: the Cavs-Pacers game isn’t on their main slate). Over at DraftKings, his salary has fallen to $8,000, which is an appealing price, especially in tournaments given his rise in usage and the Pacers’ poor defense this series. It helps that Indiana may be forced to focus on LeBron even more than usual if they want a chance to win, which could potentially leave Kyrie with more space than normal. His biggest issue is peripheral stats. His assist rate has fallen from 29.7% to 20.3% while James has ticked up to 43.9%. His decline in the stat is also due to the way LeBron is scoring. James was assisted on 37.8% of his field goals during the regular season and Irving assisted him on 35.6% of those buckets. In the postseason, James has begun creating his own shot more often and he’s been assisted on just 29.7% of his made baskets. Overall, James accounted for 23.7% of Irving’s assists during the regular season, so with James scoring on his own more often and picking up his own assist rate, Irving will naturally contribute fewer assists.

As with Irving, Love’s price tag has increased to $8,800 on FD following Game 3, which feels insane, but makes sense now that Blake Griffin is out and there are so few appealing options at the position on FD. It might be best to spend down there and to pay up at PG, SF, and/or C, considering Marreese Speights is so cheap and Thaddeus Young has a reasonable salary. On DK’s main slate, those two are solid targets and we also have Paul George and Gordon Hayward available. Love has some decent competition at center as well, but his salary is $1,300 cheaper on DK and that makes him more interesting. Like Irving, it’s highly doubtful he sits the fourth quarter again and with two days off he could push towards 36 minutes. His time on the floor is less secure than Irving though. Last postseason, we saw a similar pattern with his playing time fluctuating between the 20s and 30s. However, he played at least 35 minutes in every game the Cavs entered with three wins outside of their final game against the Warriors. Perhaps the bigger concern is Love averaging 9.3 FGAs per game against the Pacers. With LeBron and (usually) Kyrie taking the majority of the shots, there aren’t a ton left over for him. As a result, his usage has dropped quite a bit so far, falling 5.9% to 21.4% and his per-minute production has decreased 0.22 DK ppm to 1.01.

With Irving and Love on the bench, J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver produced 20.5 and 19.5 DK points, respectively. While Smith’s minutes were down due to injury, he performed better because he was able to take some extra shots while the other two starters were on the bench. Korver’s minutes went up to 22, but it’s doubtful he sees that type of playing time again. Same thing goes for Deron Williams and Channing Frye, who both received heavy minutes in the fourth. Frye had a really nice game with 26.5 DK points, but again, his stat line was aided by getting run without Irving and Love.

Tristan Thompson has recorded double-digit rebounds in all three games so far. There’s no reason that can’t continue as the Pacers had the sixth-worst rebounding rate this season (48.7%), but he might not be able to score enough to become a great fantasy asset; his seven shots in Game 3 is a series-high for him. He should track back up towards the 30-minute mark and he’s a potential cash play on DK where is price remains under $5k.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,500 $8,000 1.09 35.1 1.7 38.2 2.0 32.0% -2.3% 12 -0.24
J.R. Smith $4,200 $4,000 0.56 29.0 3.5 16.2 -0.7 14.4% -1.6% 9 -0.68
LeBron James $12,600 $11,900 1.30 37.8 4.5 49.3 7.8 32.9% -2.6% 27 0.13
Kevin Love $8,800 $7,500 1.14 31.4 5.0 35.8 0.4 25.2% -2.5% 13 1.69
Tristan Thompson $5,600 $4,700 0.77 30.0 -11.5 23.0 -7.2 11.0% 7.5% 22 2.43

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (FD), Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith (GPP)

Indiana Pacers

It was fun watching Paul George and James play some one-on-one basketball in Game 3. George was one assist shy of a triple-double and he delivered 73.75 DK points. He’s been playing out of his mind this series, raising his per-minute production from 1.13 DK points to 1.52. Like LeBron, he’s leading his team in points (32.3 per game) and assists (7.7 per game) in this series, and he’s also grabbed the most rebounds (9.3 per game). His price is $10.3k on both sites and that seems like a great deal in this situation. He took over Game 3 for his team and there’s little doubt he’ll do the same when facing elimination today. His assist rate is up from 16.1% to 29.7% and he’s picked up his defensive rebounding rate from 17.9% to 24.7%. He will undoubtedly be a popular option at this price, but it’s for good reason.

As a side effect of George’s play, we’ve watched Jeff Teague’s assist production drop substantially. His assist rate has fallen 14.9% to 21.5%. After contributing seven in Game 3, he brought his per-game average up to 5.0, but that’s still 2.8 off his mark during the regular season. Simply put, his ceiling is much smaller when George’s assist rate is so high. As mentioned, George is collecting more boards and so is Thaddeus Young, who increased his rebounding rate 3.0% to 14.3%. Teague has gone from 4.0 rebounds per game to 3.0 as a result. He’s making up for his peripherals a bit with an extra 2.4 points a game, but he’s not taking more shots, he’s just shooting an unsustainable 57.1% from three. All in all, his usage rate is down 2.5% and he’s lost 0.18 DK ppm of his fantasy production as he’s returned 0.89 DK ppm during this series.

Young was a beast down low in Game 3, hauling in 14 boards while scoring 10 points. He’s been able to get inside all series long on offense, taking 18 of his 25 field goal attempts within five feet of the hoop and converting on 66.7% of those shots. After playing 39 minutes last game, he’s second on the team with 35.4 minutes per game, which is 2.1 above Myles Turner. He’s now priced $100 above the center, but at $5,700, he’s still a good deal. On FanDuel, he’s $1,400 cheaper even though he’s outperformed him in points, rebounds, and assists. Turner’s foul trouble definitely provided Young with more minutes and helped his stat line, but they should both be in the mid-30s today. Turner is more of a tournament target as he has massive upside, but is very inconsistent. He’s had exactly five rebounds and six points in each of the past two games.

Lance Stephenson is a viable shooting guard as he’s commanded a 24.2% usage rate and an average return of 1.19 DK ppm across 25.7 minutes per game, but his price is up a bit and there are a bunch of alternates at the position, unlike the other playoff slates when he was a top option. When he’s on the floor, he’s had an assist rate of 17.1%, a rebounding rate of 11.7%, and he’s scored 14.0 points per game. He’s taken at least 12 FGAs per game, which is more than Jeff Teague and he could’ve scored more last game had he not shot 33.3% from the field. Other shooting guards in his price range offer bigger ceilings, so he’s more of a cash play.

C.J. Miles was inserted into the starting lineup, but he only played 25 minutes while Monta Ellis earned 18 off the bench. They don’t seem like necessary risks on this slate, but they’re able to get hot and they should have low ownership, which keeps them in tournament consideration.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,900 $6,800 1.00 32.4 -0.1 32.4 -2.3 26.1% -1.1% 23 -2.16
C.J. Miles $3,200 $3,800 0.71 23.4 -3.2 16.5 -3.6 17.2% -0.1% 29 -0.77
Paul George $10,300 $10,300 1.05 35.9 2.1 37.7 10.3 28.4% 0.0% 26 1.57
Thaddeus Young $6,000 $5,700 0.77 30.2 3.5 23.2 6.2 16.2% 0.6% 9 1.93
Myles Turner $7,400 $5,600 0.95 31.4 -0.8 29.9 1.9 18.5% 0.7% 17 0.95
Monta Ellis $3,900 $3,700 0.66 27.0 -2.6 17.9 -3.8 18.1% -2.4% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul George, Thaddeus Young

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague, Myles Turner, Lance Stephenson (cash), C.J. Miles (GPP), Monta Ellis (GPP)

Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 3:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets Oklahoma City Thunder
Article Image Vegas Total 224.0 Article Image Vegas Total 224.0
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 111.3 Team Total 112.8
Pace +/- 1.8 Pace +/- 3.8
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Taj Gibson Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 4 19 16 10 11 Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 26
DRPM -0.59 1.64 2.47 2.10 1.42 DRPM 1.89 -1.81 1.54 -0.16 1.25

Houston Rockets

James Harden scored 44 points in Game 3 but it wasn’t enough to win. He’s now averaging 38.7 points a game, which is the highest average in the playoffs. At the same time, his rebounding and assists are down to 5.7 and 7.7, respectively. This was expected as Oklahoma City surrendered the fewest rebounds per game after the all-star break (39.0) and the sixth-fewest assists (21.1) while ranking 17th in opponent field goal percentage. They also ranked 28th in opponent free throw attempt rate and sure enough, Harden is leading the postseason with an insane 16.3 FTAs per game and he’s made 14.7 on average. This trend should continue as Harden is making 19.0 drives per game, which is also the highest mark of the postseason – for comparison, the next closest is Kyle Lowry at 13.5. His usage has spiked 7.7% to 44.0% and he’s taking 0.60 FGAs per minute, an increase of 15.4% above his regular season average. In short, Harden will keep scoring a ton of points, but his peripherals will likely stay below normal. That makes his FD salary way to high, but his DK salary, which is $2,500 less, is too cheap.

The rest of this Rockets squad is full of secondary options. Patrick Beverley started the series off with a bang, scoring 21 points and pulling down ten rebounds, but he was a disaster in Game 3 as he got in foul trouble and only played 25 minutes. During his time on the court, he went 0-for-6 but managed to grab boards. He’s a solid rebounder, especially for a guard, but he scores sporadically. In a fast-paced series like this, he’s in play for tournaments, but he’s not safe enough for cash. Unlike Beverley, Lou Williams is a pure scorer and lacks peripherals. With Beverley fouling out of the game, Williams picked up 30 minutes of action and he didn’t disappoint, hitting 3-of-4 threes on his way to 22 points. His minutes will likely drop back into the mid-20s today. He’s proven an ability to score in limited action, as he scored 21 points in 21 minutes in Game 2, but he was also 8-for-14 overall and 3-for-4 from deep. As a comparison, he scored 11 points in 26 minutes in Game 1. He is another tournament target as he has to get hot immediately and shoot a ton the entire time he’s on to provide a nice return on his salary. Eric Gordon is in a similar boat. Although he earns more minutes and is arguably more reliable, he doesn’t seem to have as high a ceiling as Williams, which makes him less appealing for tournaments. Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson both get plenty of run but they’ve taken a backseat in the starting lineup. Ariza has averaged 6.0 FGAs and 5.0 points per game. Anderson is shooting more, 9.3 times per game, but he’s been incredibly cold from deep, going 2-for-18. While he shot 28.6% from deep in Game 3, he was 57.1% overall on his way to 18 points. It was his first game with more than 4.0 points this series, but he’s grabbed at least six rebounds twice. He seems like the better tournament option between him and Ariza and he’s cheaper on both sites. Clint Capela and Nene have maintained their timeshare. Capela has averaged more minutes (23.8) and he has been very consistent recently. He put up a dud in Game 3, but he had scored 27 or more DK points in 12 of his previous 13 games. His $5k price tag on DraftKings keeps him in consideration for cash games. Nene is averaging under 20 minutes per game, so he doesn’t feel all that intriguing now that he’s over $4k.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $6,100 $5,500 0.82 30.7 0.2 25.2 3.5 16.3% -1.2% 4 -0.59
James Harden $13,600 $11,100 1.48 36.4 -2.1 53.9 1.1 38.6% 0.1% 19 1.64
Trevor Ariza $5,600 $4,800 0.72 34.7 2.1 25.1 -1.0 14.4% 1.6% 16 2.47
Ryan Anderson $5,100 $4,400 0.71 29.4 -7.4 20.9 0.2 17.2% 3.2% 10 2.10
Clint Capela $6,300 $5,000 1.08 23.9 1.9 25.9 6.2 19.1% 1.1% 11 1.42
Eric Gordon $5,300 $4,600 0.77 31.0 -1.1 23.8 -4.0 22.0% -0.2% 19 N/A
Nene Hilario $4,900 $4,100 0.97 17.9 0.1 17.3 1.7 19.3% 1.8% 11 N/A
Lou Williams $4,900 $4,900 1.03 24.6 2.4 25.4 -5.6 28.9% -4.2% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Lou Williams (GPP), Eric Gordon (GPP), Ryan Anderson (GPP), Trevor Ariza (GPP), Clint Capela (cash)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Not surprisingly, Russell Westbrook is averaging a triple-double in this series with 35.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists. Houston is a favorable team for all of those stat categories and Westbrook is making the most of it. Somehow he elevated his usage to 53.2%, which is 9.5% above his already absurd 43.7% rate. He pushed his per-minute production a notch higher as well, it’s risen 0.02 FD ppm to 1.71 and he’s playing 38.0 minutes a night. He has the highest floor and ceiling by far, but he essentially has to score over 40 points and triple-double to hit 5X on his current salary. That’s obviously a very plausible outcome for him, but when other elite options like Chris Paul without Blake Griffin and playoff-mode Paul George are available at their current prices, there’s certainly merit to getting off Westbrook.

With Westbrook’s rise in usage, nearly everyone else’s has dropped. Most notably, Victor Oladipo’s usage has dropped 6.0% to 16.8% while his per-minute production is down 0.06 FD ppm to 0.73. His upside appears to be capped in the playoffs. Fellow starter Steven Adams has seen his usage drop into the single digits (9.3%) and his fantasy production has plummeted from 0.82 FD ppm to 0.64, despite a very favorable matchup down low. Taj Gibson has nearly maintained his usual rate, he’s at 20.4%, but his per-minute production has also dropped substantially to 0.57 FD ppm. However, Gibson earned some extra playing time last game due to solid defense. On the season, he’s ranked 18th among power forwards in DRPM (1.82). He could continue to push towards 30 minutes as they’ve limited Kanter’s playing time because of poor defense. Considering they won Game 3 with an extended run from Gibson, he’s a good bet to get an increased workload, which makes him an interesting value play in tournaments. He’s only averaging 2.7 rebounds per game as his rebounding rate has been nearly halved to 6.3% in this series, but it’s such a good spot for rebounding as Houston allowed the fourth-most rebounds per game after the break (46.2 per game), and it seems like he could pick up his production on the glass. He scored 20 points last game with his extra time. Small forward Andre Roberson is the one Thunder player to buck the trend, his usage has ticked up 2.8% and he continues to impress. He’s topped 30 FD points in all three games so far and he’s had at least six rebounds and 12 points in each contest. His defense has been stellar, so he’ll continue to get minutes; he’s averaged 3.0 blocks and 2.0 steals so far. Jerami Grant had been earning a healthy number of minutes, but he dropped to 19 last game as the Thunder gave more time to Doug McDermott and Alex Abrines, both of whom played fewer than 20. Abrines is only $1,600 on FanDuel, which puts him in play for tournaments, but he’s very risky with limited upside; his minutes are far from secure and he’s put up plenty of duds this season (he’s averaged 0.58 FD ppm). Same goes for Enes Kanter, even though he has a 30.9% usage rate and he’s delivered 1.09 FD ppm, he’s been severely limited because his bad defending is outweighing his solid offensive production.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $14,600 $13,800 1.69 34.6 -2.3 58.6 -3.1 45.9% 0.3% 25 1.89
Victor Oladipo $5,900 $5,300 0.79 33.2 -1.6 26.2 -3.7 21.7% 1.2% 26 -1.81
Andre Roberson $5,800 $5,400 0.60 30.1 -14.9 18.0 -13.5 10.2% -4.6% 23 1.54
Taj Gibson $4,000 $3,900 0.82 25.5 -5.0 20.9 -3.0 18.4% 5.6% 27 -0.16
Steven Adams $5,100 $4,600 0.82 29.9 -2.8 24.6 -1.7 16.1% 0.2% 26 1.25
Enes Kanter $4,600 $3,800 1.12 21.3 -2.1 23.8 -4.1 26.5% 4.7% 27 N/A
Jerami Grant $3,600 $3,800 0.61 19.1 0.9 11.7 3.1 12.4% -1.2% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Andre Roberson, Victor Oladipo, Taj Gibson (GPP), Steven Adams (GPP), Alex Abrines (FD GPP)

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls – 6:30 PM ET

Boston Celtics Chicago Bulls
Article Image Vegas Total 204.0 Article Image Vegas Total 204.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 100.8
Pace +/- -1.0 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Jerian Grant Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Nikola Mirotic Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 13 15 19 4 Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21
DRPM 0.45 -0.63 1.86 1.19 0.24 DRPM -4.21 -1.13 1.37 3.79 1.59

Boston Celtics

Coach Brad Stevens promised a change and he delivered, giving a surprise start to Gerald Green and moving Jae Crowder to power forward. The new lineup worked and the Celtics jumped out to an 18-point lead by the end of the first quarter. Green became a popular value play as he cost $1,500 on FanDuel, but he only returned 9.2 points. He has the same salary on FD and he should do better today; in seven games with at least 17 minutes this season, Green produced between 13.2 and 27.5 FD points. This starting five hasn’t played many minutes together, but when Green shared the court with Isaiah Thomas this season, his per-minute production rate rose 0.10 to 0.87 FD ppm. He’s an incredibly risky choice, especially when he could be limited to minutes in the low-20s again, but his price makes him interesting as he’s capable of getting hot.

Avery Bradley finally showed up, scoring 15 points while adding seven rebounds and seven assists. Bradley is playing the most minutes on the team (37.2) and he seems like a better option than Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart. The latter two don’t have huge upsides with the whole squad healthy. From a per-minute production perspective, Smart has done better than Crowder, earning 0.88 FD ppm while Crowder has produced 0.73 in this series. Smart is getting a nice amount of time on the floor as well, especially with Boston focusing on their offense; Smart played 30 minutes to Crowder’s 33 in Game 3.

Al Horford is leading the team with 8.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game, although his usage is down 8.9% to 18.9%. With Boston going small, he collected a game-high eight rebounds in Game 3. His peripherals are making him a very interesting target – he’s also averaging 1.7 steals and 0.7 blocks. His assist rate is up 5.2% to 29.6% due to his effective passing and his rebounding rate has ticked up 2.1% to 13.9%. Meanwhile, Isaiah Thomas’ assist rate has dropped from 32.5% to 26.2%. He was quiet in Game 3, only scoring 16 points, although he did contribute a game-high 11 assists. Now that Boston is focusing on pace and scoring, both Thomas and Horford should be able to collect assists. Thomas has only averaged 17 FGAs per game, but he should pick that up, as he averaged 19.4 during the regular season and he’s averaging an extra 3.3 minutes per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,000 $8,100 1.19 33.8 -2.9 40.4 -2.3 34.9% 2.2% 22 0.45
Avery Bradley $6,600 $5,800 0.84 33.4 -0.1 28.1 -5.9 21.5% -3.5% 13 -0.63
Jae Crowder $6,400 $5,300 0.79 32.4 0.1 25.7 3.5 16.9% 0.2% 15 1.86
Amir Johnson $2,500 $2,900 0.82 20.1 -2.4 16.5 0.5 14.3% 1.3% 19 1.19
Al Horford $7,700 $6,700 1.00 32.3 -3.7 32.2 -4.9 21.6% 0.6% 4 0.24
Marcus Smart $6,400 $5,000 0.80 30.4 -0.4 24.2 3.8 20.7% -3.2% 13 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $5,100 $4,800 0.90 20.5 0.8 18.5 3.2 19.5% 2.2% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford, Avery Bradley

Secondary Plays – Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Gerald Green (FD GPP)

Chicago Bulls

After winning both away games, Chicago let the first one at home slip away. They got off to a bad start, unable to keep up with Boston’s small lineup in the first quarter and struggled to get things going on offense without Rajon Rondo. Jimmy Butler was pretty poor, shooting 33.3% from the field and missing all of his three-point attempts. He should be fine going forward, and there’s a good chance Chicago runs him or Wade at point guard for parts of this game considering how poorly Jerian Grant and Michael Carter-Williams played in Game 3. Even with Wade on the court, Butler has a usage rate of 32.7%, which is 4.1% above his season average. He may continue his struggle to find good looks as Boston had the fifth-best opponent shooting percentage in the second half of the season (45.0%), but he should be shooting a ton to make up for it. With the ball in his hands often, he should experience some positive regression in terms of assists. So far in this series, he’s had an assist rate of 12.9%, which is nearly half his rate during the regular season (24.8%). Without Rondo dishing, that should increase. He’s already averaging 8.0 rebounds per game, 1.8 above his average, and that should continue as he’s playing 40.8 minutes per game and Boston is a poor rebounding team.

Dwyane Wade was also cold, shooting 33.3% from the field and missing his lone three-pointer. He’s now second on the team in usage with 27.3%, a 4.6% decline from the season. It’s a positive sign that he shot 18 times last game, which is an extra 2.1 FGAs above his average, and he should also benefit with Rondo out. In 47.7 minutes without the point guard in this series, his usage has climbed to 30.2%.

After having some great games to open the series, Robin Lopez only scored 12 points and grabbed six boards in 21 minutes in Game 3. Boston’s small lineup was designed in part to exploit Lopez’s poor athleticism. He’s too slow to keep up with Boston’s lineup and he struggles when he’s dragged out of the paint. Cristiano Felicio ended up picking up 23 minutes, Bobby Portis received 18, and Paul Zipser got out there for 25 as Chicago tried to counter. Lopez is now a risky bet in fantasy because his minutes may not be secure as long as Boston maintains this approach. He produced 21.2 FD points in his 21 minutes and he can continue to deliver good per-minute production offensively on the Celtics if given the time, which keeps him in play for tournaments. As for the trio of Portis, Zipser, and Felicio, they’re potential value plays in GPPs. Zipser will probably get the most minutes, but Portis is the most intriguing as he’s delivered 0.98 FD ppm this series, well above Zipser’s 0.57 and Felicio’s 0.68. He may still not get enough time to make use of his excellent fantasy production, but the other guys probably aren’t worth the risk, whereas Portis has demonstrated some serious upside when he racked up 38.3 FD points in Game 1. Hopefully, he can get back up into the mid-20s, but if Nikola Mirotic keeps receiving 28 minutes as he did in Game 3 it’ll be tough. Mirotic has a more secure workload and he’s going to shoot when he’s on the floor, but he’s going to have to be very efficient with his opportunities to pay off his current salary, he’s better used in tournaments as he’s very reliant on threes.

With Rondo out, it’s opened up some value at point guard. Jerian Grant and Michael Carter-Williams are both very cheap, but they’re incredibly risky. Grant had some big games when starting for Rondo towards the end of the season, but that was before Wade was healthy and Butler’s usage has risen quite a bit in the playoffs. Chicago seems to prefer MCW, as they gave him more minutes off the bench (23). He appears to be the better fantasy option in this situation, but with Wade and Butler on the court during the regular season, he had a usage 18.8% and returned 0.67 FD ppm without flashing much upside. Given his price, he offers some cap space, but he’s a very risky bet to pay off his low salary as he may still be limited to the low-20s minute-wise. It’s also possible the Bulls roll with more lineups without a point guard at all.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jerian Grant $2,500 $3,700 0.72 16.3 7.1 11.8 13.0 17.8% -0.2% 18 -4.21
Dwyane Wade $7,300 $6,500 1.05 29.9 -6.9 31.3 -12.3 30.6% 1.2% 11 -1.13
Jimmy Butler $9,900 $10,000 1.14 37.0 -0.9 42.1 -0.5 28.7% 1.0% 13 1.37
Nikola Mirotic $6,500 $5,100 0.87 24.0 3.5 21.0 8.2 19.3% 2.5% 24 3.79
Robin Lopez $6,100 $5,300 0.77 28.0 0.8 21.7 2.8 17.3% 3.0% 21 1.59
Michael Carter-Williams $3,000 $3,000 0.83 18.8 -5.8 15.5 -5.5 22.5% -0.1% 18 N/A
Bobby Portis $4,400 $3,900 0.86 15.6 4.1 13.5 7.7 19.0% -0.1% 24 N/A
Paul Zipser $3,900 $3,500 0.55 19.2 2.5 10.6 3.2 14.2% 0.8% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade

Secondary Plays – Robin Lopez, Nikola Mirotic (GPP), Bobby Portis (GPP), Cristiano Da Silva Felicio (GPP), Paul Zipser (GPP), Michael Carter-Williams (GPP), Jerian Grant (GPP)

Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Utah Jazz
Article Image Vegas Total 198.5 Article Image Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 98.0 Team Total 100.5
Pace +/- -5.1 Pace +/- -0.5
Proj. Starter Chris Paul Raymond Felton J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter George Hill Joe Ingles Gordon Hayward Boris Diaw Derrick Favors
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 2 1 1 3 Adj. DvP 7 5 22 20 9
DRPM 0.60 0.04 0.13 -1.03 2.41 DRPM 2.71 -0.67 -1.80 2.19 3.57

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers can’t catch a break, Blake Griffin is done for the season after injuring his toe last game. That means it’s time for Chris Paul to really take over. We got a glimpse of what that might look like in Game 3; even with Griffin in for the first half, Paul had a usage rate of 38.4% over the course of the game and he produced 1.64 FD ppm. Griffin averaged 21.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game this season, and we can expect a good chunk of the scoring and assists to be picked up by Paul, who scored 34 points on 22 shots last game. Given the situation, his price is beatable across the industry, even in a slow-paced matchup with the Jazz. Paul already pulled down 5.0 boards per game, but that could increase a bit as well; it helps that Rudy Gobert has been out for the Jazz, Paul had seven in Game 3. Of course, most of the rebounding will fall to DeAndre Jordan, who’s been dominating the Gobert-less Jazz. He has a rebounding rate of 26.3% and he’s grabbed at least 13 rebounds in each game so far. That production should continue. He also scored 17 points on seven shots in Game 3. He’s not a big scorer as he averaged 7.1 FGAs this season, but he led the league in field goal percentage (71.4%) and he could see his opportunities rise with Griffin’s injury.

Marreese Speights is expected to start in Griffin’s place, which makes him one of the best value options available. Across the 178.3 minutes he shared the floor with Chris Paul, he had a usage rate of 26.1% and returned 1.06 FD ppm. In 11 games with at least 20 minutes this season, Speights scored over 23 FD points in nine of them, and he exceeded 36 three times.

Luc Mbah a Moute is playing a ton of minutes as he’s tied to Gordon Hayward for defensive purposes. He had a nice game last time out, scoring 15 points and grabbing six rebounds, but it could be an outlier. In 655.8 minutes with Griffin off the court this season, his fantasy production hardly budged and he produced 0.49 FD ppm. Fellow starter J.J. Redick continued to get smothered by Utah’s defense, he’s now averaged 6.0 FGAs per game. Jamal Crawford is the better option between him and Redick, he’s taken at least 10 shots in all three games and he’s averaging 27 minutes per game to Redick’s 29.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $10,300 $9,800 1.26 31.5 1.4 39.7 4.2 28.9% 0.2% 1 0.60
Raymond Felton $2,700 $2,600 0.70 21.2 -2.6 14.7 -3.2 17.8% -0.9% 2 0.04
J.J. Redick $3,800 $4,200 0.72 28.2 3.7 20.2 4.9 21.0% -1.9% 1 0.13
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $4,300 $3,700 0.52 22.3 7.8 11.6 4.9 11.0% 0.9% 1 -1.03
DeAndre Jordan $8,600 $7,900 1.08 31.7 2.1 34.3 4.6 14.6% 0.1% 3 2.41
Jamal Crawford $4,000 $3,500 0.70 26.3 -2.5 18.3 -4.1 22.8% -3.4% 2 N/A
Marreesse Speights N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, Marreese Speights (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Marreese Speights (cash), Jamal Crawford (GPP), Luc Mbah Moute (GPP)

Utah Jazz

The Jazz lost Game 3, but they have to be pleased with Gordon Hayward’s performance. With Gobert down, they needed him to step up and he finally did, scoring 40 points on 21 shots and he added eight rebounds and four assists. He ended up with a 37.4% usage rate and it looks like he’ll continue this trend as Utah needs to depend on him. George Hill had his best game of the series, scoring 26 points while shooting 60.0% from the field and 66.7% from three. He’s a more reliable mid-range option than Patrick Beverley, but he can’t shoot much better than he did and with Joe Johnson’s increased usage and FGAs, he may not get many more opportunities. He struggled when Gobert was off the floor during the regular season, losing 2.2% off his usage rate and 2.82 FD points off his per-36 pace, but his pace was still 29.35. Also, he’s been looking healthier as this series as progressed. Since his salary has remained favorable, he can be considered in all formats for those looking for more consistency than what Patrick Beverley offers.

Derrick Favors got another start and played 38 minutes. With only one day of rest between games and his well-discussed fatigue issues this postseason, one has to wonder if he’ll see fewer minutes tonight. It’s possible that fatigue really caught up to him last game as he only scored five points. Given his situation, he’s probably better in tournaments. He has demonstrated an ability to produce fantasy points in the past, but his poor conditioning due to his knee injury is really hurting his value at this point.

Joe Johnson and Joe Ingles both played 34 minutes and will likely continue to earn that type of playing time. Johnson is the better scorer while Ingles is the better peripherals guy. That means Ingles will have the higher floor and Johnson the higher ceiling. Johnson remains an interesting tournament target as his usage has jumped 5.9% to 26.3% this postseason, he’s averaging 31.4 minutes per game, and he’s taking 14 shots per night.

There isn’t much else to like on the Jazz. Rodney Hood is still playing around 20 minutes per game, so he’s not a viable value play; he’s averaging 8.0 points, 1.0 rebound, and 0.3 assists this postseason.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
George Hill $5,900 $5,900 0.89 31.5 -11.3 28.0 0.8 24.7% 0.1% 7 2.71
Joe Ingles $4,900 $4,500 0.68 24.1 7.5 16.3 2.3 15.4% 0.1% 5 -0.67
Gordon Hayward $8,300 $7,700 1.00 34.5 -2.8 34.3 1.5 27.6% 1.7% 22 -1.80
Boris Diaw $4,500 $3,600 0.57 17.6 0.5 10.1 3.8 17.6% -3.7% 20 2.19
Derrick Favors $6,100 $5,600 0.87 23.7 -6.6 20.7 -3.3 19.8% 5.8% 9 3.57
Joe Johnson $5,400 $4,800 0.68 23.6 1.7 16.1 5.8 18.7% 3.4% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Gordon Hayward

Secondary Plays – George Hill, Derrick Favors (GPP), Joe Johnson (GPP), Joe Ingles

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).